2018 Lowy Institute Poll


2018 LOWY INSTITUTE POLL


After the remarkable developments of the past two years and following a year of heated domestic debate on issues such as foreign influence, energy and immigration, the 2018 Lowy Institute Poll has observed both continuities and discontinuities in Australian public opinion.

ALEX OLIVER


KEY FINDINGS
Support for the US alliance remains firm, although trust in the US has fallen to its lowest level in our polling history, and most Australians have little confidence in President Donald Trump.
Despite heated public debate about foreign interference in Australia’s political processes, Australians seem more concerned about Chinese investment than influence. Only 41% of Australians view foreign interference in our political processes as a ‘critical threat’, but there has been a striking rise in the proportion of the Australian population (to 72%) who say the Australian government is ‘allowing too much investment from China’.
There has been a sharp spike in anti-immigration sentiment. For the first time in Lowy Institute polling, a majority (54%, a 14-point rise from 2017) of Australians say the ‘total number of migrants coming to Australia each year’ is too high. Australians also appear to be questioning the impact of immigration on the national identity.

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ON THIS PAGE:

• Introduction
• Preface
• Executive Summary
• Australia and the World
• Tables of Results
• About the Lowy Institute Poll
• Notes

POLLING | 

20 JUNE 2018

2018 LOWY INSTITUTE POLL

After the remarkable developments of the past two years and following a year of heated domestic debate on issues such as foreign influence, energy and immigration, the 2018 Lowy Institute Poll has observed both continuities and discontinuities in Australian public opinion.

ALEX OLIVER

KEY FINDINGS

• Support for the US alliance remains firm, although trust in the US has fallen to its lowest level in our polling history, and most Australians have little confidence in President Donald Trump.
• Despite heated public debate about foreign interference in Australia’s political processes, Australians seem more concerned about Chinese investment than influence. Only 41% of Australians view foreign interference in our political processes as a ‘critical threat’, but there has been a striking rise in the proportion of the Australian population (to 72%) who say the Australian government is ‘allowing too much investment from China’.
• There has been a sharp spike in anti-immigration sentiment. For the first time in Lowy Institute polling, a majority (54%, a 14-point rise from 2017) of Australians say the ‘total number of migrants coming to Australia each year’ is too high. Australians also appear to be questioning the impact of immigration on the national identity.

INTRODUCTION

The 2018 Poll is the fourteenth annual Poll by the Lowy Institute. As always, the Poll incorporates questions about our most important relationships, including those with the United States and China, and asks Australians to consider how much they trust various global powers, as well as the degree of confidence they have in some of the world’s political leaders. The Poll probes Australian attitudes to the US alliance and the prospect of joint military action with the United States under the Trump administration. We also ask Australians for their opinions on topical issues such as Chinese investment, climate change and renewable energy, immigration, and the contentious question of foreign influence in Australian politics.

To explore the updated 2018 Lowy Institute Poll Interactive, click here. The full 2018 report is available below, and can be downloaded using the link above.

PREFACE

The remarkable developments over the past two years have raised questions about the global order under which Australia has prospered for many years.

In Europe, the British public voted to leave the European Union. In the United States, Americans elected a president who is an unbeliever in alliances and hostile to free trade. President Trump is sceptical of the liberal international order; personally he is neither liberal in his inclinations, nor international in his outlook, nor orderly in his behaviour.

In Asia, China continues its inexorable rise, pursuing muscular policies in the South China Sea and recasting power relations throughout the region. Critics have also accused Beijing of seeking to influence the Australian public debate.

The debate in Australia in the past year has been as raucous as ever, touching on issues including immigration and energy security. The Australian government’s 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper depicted a deteriorating international order that will ask hard questions of Australian foreign policy.

In the face of such changes, the 2018 Lowy Institute Poll finds a mix of continuities and discontinuities. Fewer than one in five Australians are satisfied with the way things are going in the world – a result almost unchanged since last year, but striking nonetheless.

There is no question that Donald Trump’s presidency has eroded Australians’ trust and confidence in the United States as a responsible global actor: that trust has fallen to its lowest point in the Poll’s history. Yet despite concerns about the current occupant of the White House, Australians’ support for the US alliance has held firm.

Terrorism continues to present a potent threat in Australians’ minds. This year, terrorism is again the top-ranked threat, as it has been consistently in Lowy Institute polling. There is continued scepticism about China’s military intentions, and concern about Chinese investment in Australia. But equally consistent is a conviction on the part of most Australians that China represents more of an opportunity than a threat, and that Australia should be able to maintain good relationships with China and the United States at the same time.

What about discontinuities? For the first time, the Poll finds that a majority of Australians think the current rate of immigration to Australia is too high. In another shift, concern about climate change appears to be accelerating, and the public preference for renewables over coal has hardened, despite concerns about energy insecurity which might result from coal power station closures. 

Australians remain remarkably sanguine about foreign interference in Australia’s political processes following the furore over Chinese-linked donations to Australian political parties, politicians, and institutions. Foreign interference remains a low-order threat in the minds of Australians, who are almost equally concerned about US influence as Chinese influence.

The ‘Anglosphere’ maintains its grip on the Australian psyche, with New Zealand, Canada, and the United Kingdom topping our ‘feelings thermometer’ in 2018. Yet Australians are relatively comfortable about the rise of Asia: few perceive China’s growing power as a critical threat to Australia’s interests; most see Indonesia as an economic opportunity; and more Australians trust India to act responsibly in the world than the United States.

It was to observe and interpret such continuities and discontinuities that we established the Lowy Institute Poll in 2005. The 2018 Lowy Institute Poll, like the thirteen polls before it, helps us to understand how Australians see the world.

Dr Michael Fullilove
Executive Director
June 2018

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Trust in countries and confidence in their leaders

A bare majority of Australians (55%) say they trust the United States to ‘act responsibly in the world’, in a six-point fall since 2017, a 28-point fall since 2011, and the lowest level of trust in the United States ever recorded in our polling.

Australians’ highest level of trust among the eight nations polled is placed in the United Kingdom (trusted by 90%). Japan is trusted by 87% of Australians, and France by 84%. Trust in India (59%) is ahead of the United States (55%), followed closely by China (52%). Just 28% trust Russia, and 8% trust North Korea.

Only 30% of Australians have either ‘a lot’ or ‘some’ confidence in Donald Trump ‘to do the right thing regarding world affairs’. This places Trump ahead of only Russia’s Vladimir Putin (19%) and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (5%) among the nine leaders ranked.The leaders Australians regard with the most confidence are the UK’s Theresa May (68%) and Japan’s Shinzo Abe (66%). Next is Malcolm Turnbull (63%), and France’s Emmanuel Macron has the confidence of 61%. Eighteen points behind is China’s Xi Jinping (43%), followed by India’s Narendra Modi (37%).

Trump and the US alliance

Three-quarters (76%) of Australians say the US alliance is either ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ important for Australia’s security, in a result almost unchanged since last year. Only 31% say ‘Australia should distance itself from the United States under President Donald Trump’. Reluctance about Australia joining the United States in military action under Donald Trump has eased, with only a minority (48%, down 11 points since 2016) saying they would be ‘less likely … to support Australia taking future military action in coalition with the United States under Donald Trump’.

Threats to Australia

Terrorism and North Korea’s nuclear program are the highest ranked threats this year: 66% of Australians say ‘international terrorism’ and 66% say ‘North Korea’s nuclear program’ are critical threats to the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years. Climate change ranks third (58% saying critical threat). Cyberattacks from other countries are seen as a critical threat by 57%.

Half (50%) see the prospect of a global economic downturn as a critical threat, and 42% consider the presidency of Donald Trump a critical threat. The ‘dissemination of false information or fake news’ is seen as a critical threat by 42% of Australians. Four in ten (40%) see ‘large numbers of immigrants and refugees coming into Australia’ as a critical threat, and 36% see ‘US foreign policy’ and ‘China’s growing power’ as critical threats.

Overall, 94% of Australians see international terrorism as either a critical or important threat. Of those, 93% say it is a threat because ‘terrorists could kill innocent Australian citizens in our cities’. Fewer (72%) say it is a ‘threat to our way of life in Australia’, and two-thirds (65%) say ‘terrorism makes it unsafe to travel overseas’.

Australians’ feeling of safety is at its lowest level in our 14-year polling history. In 2018, 78% say they feel either ‘very safe’ or ‘safe’, a result 13 points lower than in 2005 when 91% felt safe.

Foreign interference in Australian politics

Only 41% of Australians see ‘foreign interference in Australian politics’ as a critical threat to Australia’s vital interests. While 63% express concern about China’s influence in Australia’s political processes, 58% are concerned about the influence of the United States.

China

Almost three-quarters of Australian adults (72%, up from 56% in 2014) say the Australian government is ‘allowing too much investment from China’. As in previous years, a significant minority (46%) say it is ‘likely that China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years’. Asked why, the strongest agreement was with the statement ‘China and the United States are likely to come into conflict in the future and Australia will end up being drawn into the conflict through its alliance with the United States’ (77% agreeing).

More than eight in ten (82%) Australians see China as ‘more of an economic partner’ than a ‘military threat’ (up three points since 2017). More than half (55%) see China as the world’s leading economic power, compared with 29% who see the United States this way.

Around eight in ten (81%) Australians say ‘it is possible for Australia to have a good relationship with China and a good relationship with the United States at the same time’.

Climate change and renewables

In 2018, 59% of Australians (up five points) say ‘global warming is a serious and pressing problem’ about which ‘we should begin taking steps now even if this involves significant costs’. Almost all Australians (84%, up three points) say ‘the government should focus on renewables, even if this means we may need to invest more in infrastructure to make the system more reliable’. Only 14% say ‘the government should focus on traditional energy sources such as coal and gas, even if this means the environment may suffer to some extent’.

Immigration

A majority (54%) say ‘the total number of migrants coming to Australia each year is too high’; 30% say it is ‘about right’; and 14% say it is ‘too low’. The same-sized majority say ‘Australia’s openness to people from all over the world is essential to who we are as a nation’. However, 41% say ‘if Australia is too open to people from all over the world, we risk losing our identity as a nation’.

Aid

When asked what percentage of the government budget is spent on foreign aid, Australians on average think that 14% of the budget is spent on aid, while they say 10% should be spent on aid. Australia’s aid budget is approximately 0.8% of the federal budget.

Papua New Guinea

Most Australians say ‘stability in Papua New Guinea is important to Australia’s national interest’ (76%), and 77% say ‘Australia has a moral obligation to help Papua New Guinea’. They are divided, however, on the impact of aid: 37% agree and 45% disagree that ‘Australian aid … has little impact on life in Papua New Guinea’. A majority of Australians (59%) say ‘Australia’s relationship with Papua New Guinea has been damaged because of the Manus Island detention centre’.

Indonesia

In 2018, only 24% of Australians agree that Indonesia is a democracy. They are divided (44% agreeing and 44% disagreeing) on whether ‘Indonesia is a dangerous source of terrorism’, and only 32% agree that ‘the Indonesian government has worked hard to fight terrorism’. A majority (58%) agree that ‘Indonesia is an important economy to Australia’, and 52% agree that ‘Australia is managing its relationship with Indonesia well’.

Democracy

In similar results to previous years, 62% of Australians this year say ‘democracy is preferable to any other kind of government’; 20% say ‘in some circumstances, a non-democratic government can be preferable’; and 15% say ‘for someone like me, it doesn’t matter what kind of government we have’. Only 47% of Australians aged 18–44 years of age say ‘democracy is preferable to any other kind of government’.

Feelings towards other countries

Three Anglosphere countries top the feelings thermometer this year: New Zealand (86°), Canada (84°), and the United Kingdom (82°). The United States ranks lower, at 67°. Feelings towards the European Union warmed five points to 67°, while those towards Germany (71°) and France (70°) remained steady. Japan recorded a three-point rise to 74°, while feelings for South Korea (62°), the Philippines (61°), Taiwan (60°), and China (58°) are moderately warm. Feelings for Indonesia remain lukewarm at 54°, and neither warm nor cold for Myanmar (50°). In the Pacific, Papua New Guinea registers a warmish 63°, and East Timor a cooler 57°. Russia (47°), Saudi Arabia (40°), and North Korea (25°) all sit on the cold side of the thermometer.

Direction of the nation and the world

Only 17% of Australians are ‘satisfied with the way things are going in the world today’, while 78% are dissatisfied – a result almost unchanged since last year. Around half (49%) are satisfied with the way things are going in Australia today, and 46% are dissatisfied.

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AUSTRALIA AND THE WORLD

Trust in global powers

At a time when world events are rapidly evolving and the global order appears to be shifting, Australians are placing their trust in Western allies and friends. The clear exception is the United States. When we ask Australian adults how much they trust a range of countries to ‘act responsibly in the world’, a bare majority (55%) say they trust the United States either ‘a great deal’ or ‘somewhat’ to act responsibly. This is a six-point fall since 2017, a very substantial 28-point drop since 2011, and the lowest level of trust in the United States recorded since we first asked this question in the 2006 Lowy Institute Poll.   

The United Kingdom earns Australians’ highest level of trust, as it did in 2017, and this despite its vote to exit from the European Union – a move not favoured by Australians when we asked them in 2016.[1] Almost all adult Australians (90%) trust the United Kingdom to ‘act responsibly in the world’. Japan is trusted by 87% of Australians, and France by 84%. Further behind, India is trusted by 59% of Australians, which places it ahead of the United States in Australians’ level of trust. China and the United States are not statistically separable on the question of trust, with 52% of Australians trusting China to the same degree as they trust the United States. Russia is trusted by only 28% of Australians (down ten points since 2017), and North Korea by 8% (down four points).

 

 

Confidence in Donald Trump and other world leaders

US President Donald Trump appears to be a significant factor in Australians’ declining trust in the United States. Few Australians (30%) have either ‘a lot’ or ‘some’ confidence in President Trump ‘to do the right thing regarding world affairs’. Almost half of adult women (49%) have no confidence ‘at all’ in the President, compared with 30% of men. On a list of nine world leaders, President Trump is only placed ahead of Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on this measure of confidence.

Australians’ confidence in world leaders corresponds strongly with their trust in the nations those leaders govern. UK Prime Minister Theresa May and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe top the list, with 68% and 66% of Australians respectively expressing their confidence in these leaders. Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is close behind, with 63% of Australians saying they have either ‘a lot’ of or ‘some’ confidence in him to do the right thing regarding
world affairs. New French President Emmanuel Macron has earned the confidence of 61%.

There is a significant gap between Western and other leaders. Australians are wary of Chinese President Xi Jinping, with a minority (43%) expressing confidence in him. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi carries the confidence of just over a third (37%) of Australians – although this places him seven points ahead of Donald Trump (30%). Only 19% of Australians have confidence in Russian President Vladimir Putin, and 5% in North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

 

 

Donald Trump and the US alliance

Despite the very low levels of confidence in US President Donald Trump, Australians remain strongly supportive of the US alliance. In a result almost unchanged from last year, 76% of Australians say the US alliance is either ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ important for Australia’s security. And 64% (again, almost identical to last year’s result) say ‘Australia should remain close to the United States under President Donald Trump’. Less than a third (31%) say ‘Australia should distance itself from the United States under President Donald Trump’. Even among the 70% of Australians who say they have ‘not too much’ or ‘no confidence at all’ in Donald Trump, most of them (72%) say the alliance is either ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ important for Australia’s security.

Older Australians are more likely to express very strong support for the alliance: a majority of those aged 45 and over (58%) see the alliance as ‘very important’, compared with 38% of those under 45. Even among this younger group, however, 70% say the alliance is either ‘very’ or ‘fairly important’, and 95% say it is either ‘very’, ‘fairly’, or ‘somewhat important’.

It appears this broad support for the US alliance is practical in nature, not merely symbolic. Despite Australians’ falling level of trust in the United States to act responsibly in the world, only 48% say they would be ‘less likely … to support Australia taking future military action in coalition with the United States under Donald Trump’ now that he is President. This is 11 points lower than the 59% of Australians in 2016 who said they would be less likely to support Australia taking military action with the United States under Donald Trump. In other words, reluctance about Australia joining the United States in military action under the Trump administration has eased since the new President took office.

 

 

Threats to Australia

Terrorism and North Korea’s nuclear program are seen as the leading threats to Australia when we ask Australians about a range of possible ‘threats to the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years’. Two thirds of Australians (66%) say that ‘international terrorism’ is a ‘critical threat’ to the vital interests of Australia in the next ten years, and the same number say ‘North Korea’s nuclear program’ is a critical threat. Climate change is the next highest ranked threat, with 58% seeing it as a critical threat; this is similar to the proportion (57%) who saw it as a critical threat in 2017, and 12 points higher than the result in 2014. The threat of cyberattacks from other countries continues to cause Australians some concern, with 57% seeing it as a critical threat. The prospect of a global economic downturn is seen as a critical threat by half (50%) of Australians. Despite his unpopularity, Donald Trump’s presidency is regarded as a critical threat by a minority of the population (42%).

Lower ranked are the threats posed by ‘large numbers of immigrants and refugees coming into Australia’ (40% saying ‘critical threat’), ‘US foreign policies’ (36%), and ‘China’s growing power’ (36%). However, the threat of a rising China is perceived differently by Australians of different generations. While China’s growing power does not alarm most Australians, a majority (52%) of older Australians aged over 60 see it as a critical threat to the nation’s interests.

 

 

Foreign interference in Australian politics

Since 2017, there has been a lively public debate about the threat of foreign interference in Australia’s political processes, with revelations of connections between wealthy Chinese donors and Australian politicians.[2] Despite the intensity of this debate, Australians do not appear to be particularly concerned about the possibility that such connections are a threat to Australian democracy. ‘Foreign interference in Australian politics’ is seen as a ‘critical threat’ by a minority (41%) of Australians. It ranks lower in threat perceptions than terrorism (66%), North Korea’s nuclear program (66%), climate change (58%), the threat of cyberattacks (57%), and the prospect of a global economic downturn (50%).

The public debate in 2017 revolved around the threat of Chinese influence. However, Australians’ concerns appear to be focused on foreign influence generally, rather than the threat posed by China specifically. When asked about influence from both China and the United States in Australia’s political processes, only marginally more Australians (63%) expressed concern about China than about the influence of the United States (58%). 

 

 

Terrorism

International terrorism has been at the top of the list of Australians’ concerns for most of the history of Lowy Institute polling. On five of the six occasions we have asked Australians about the threats to Australia’s vital interests, terrorism has been the leading or equal highest concern. This year, we sought to understand this better among those respondents who said terrorism was either a ‘critical’ or ‘important but not critical’ threat to Australia’s vital interests (1123 of 1200 respondents). Almost all of them see terrorism as a global threat, with 91% agreeing it is a ‘threat to global security as well as Australia’s’. Incidents such as the Martin Place siege in late 2014 and the Parramatta shooting in 2015 may have heightened fears of home-grown terrorism: 93% of the respondents agree that terrorism is a threat because ‘terrorists could kill innocent Australian citizens in our cities’. Around three-quarters (72%) say ‘terrorism is a threat to our way of life in Australia’. Fewer (65%) say ‘terrorism makes it unsafe to travel overseas’.

To put these fears in context, our Poll results show that Australians feel less safe than in the past. In 2018, 78% say they feel either ‘very safe’ or ‘safe’. This is the lowest level measured since 2005, when 91% felt safe.

 

 

China

Over the course of Lowy Institute polling, Australians have expressed a complex range of attitudes towards China. On the one hand, China is Australia’s largest trading partner and an important contributor to Australia’s prosperity. On the other hand, many Australians are wary of China and its intentions.

Chinese investment

This year, there has been a sharp rise in the proportion of the Australian population who say the Australian government is ‘allowing too much investment from China’. Almost three-quarters (72%, up from 56% in 2014) now take this view.

Lowy Institute polling in the past has identified three areas of foreign investment which appear to disturb Australians the most: agriculture, residential real estate, and critical infrastructure such as ports and airports. Australians have been wary of Chinese investment in residential real estate, with 70% responding in our 2015 Poll that the Australian government allows too much investment from China in residential real estate.

Foreign investment in agriculture also causes widespread concern, with 87% of Australians saying in 2016 they were against ‘the Australian government allowing foreign companies to buy Australian farmland’. Finally, in our 2014 Poll, 60% of Australians were against the ‘Australian government allowing foreign companies to invest in ports and airports’.  That poll presaged Treasurer Scott Morrison’s decision in 2016 to block the sale of NSW electricity provider Ausgrid to a consortium of Chinese state-owned and Hong Kong corporations, the blocking of the Kidman cattle station sale to Chinese buyers in late 2015,[3] and the lease of the Darwin port facility to Chinese firm Landbridge. The government has since announced new rules on the sale of electricity assets to foreign companies, and new conditions have also been imposed on the sale of agricultural land.[4]

China as a military threat

This year, as in eight consecutive years previously, a significant proportion of the Australian population sees China as a potential military threat to Australia in the future. In 2018, 46% of Australians say it is likely that ‘China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years’.

The primary reason for this wariness is the perception that Australia may be drawn into a conflict between the United States and China in the region. When asked why they ‘personally think China will become a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years’, 77% of those who see China as a likely military threat agree with the statement that ‘China and the United States are likely to come into conflict in the future and Australia will end up being drawn into the conflict through its alliance with the United States’. Seven in ten (70%) agree that ‘China’s recent actions have been assertive and suggest it is going to be a militarily aggressive power’. Fewer, but still a majority (65%), agree that ‘China has been expanding and modernising its military, suggesting it is preparing for conflict’. 

China as an economic partner

Despite perceptions of the possible threat posed by China, most Australians see it far more as an economic partner than a military threat. More than eight in ten (82%) Australians now say that China is ‘more of an economic partner’. This is three points higher than in 2017, and five points higher than in 2015. Only 12% say China is ‘more of a military threat’.

World’s leading economic power

Australians’ embrace of China as an economic partner probably stems from their perception of it as a global economic powerhouse. More than half (55%) think China is the ‘world’s leading economic power’, with just 29% seeing the United States as the leading economy. Very few (7%) say ‘the countries of the European Union’ are the world’s leading economic power, although the European Union has the second-largest GDP, on an exchange rate basis, after that of the United States and ahead of China.[5]

China and the United States

At a time when the United States and a rising China are fast becoming strategic competitors in the region, there is an increasing debate about whether Australia will eventually be forced to choose between the United States, as its alliance partner, and China, as its largest trading partner. However, around eight in ten (81%) Australians would disagree, saying it is ‘possible for Australia to have a good relationship with China and a good relationship with the United States at the same time’. While this is a six-point drop from the 87% who said this in 2013, it remains a very strong majority. Only 13% say it is not possible for Australia to maintain good relationships with bot