One of the U.S. government's leading China experts reveals the hidden strategy fueling that country's rise – and how Americans have been seduced into helping China overtake us as the world's leading superpower.
For more than forty years, the United States has played an indispensable role helping the Chinese government build a booming economy, develop its scientific and military capabilities, and take its place on the world stage, in the belief that China's rise will bring us cooperation, diplomacy, and free trade. But what if the "China Dream" is to replace us, just as America replaced the British Empire, without firing a shot?
Based on interviews with Chinese defectors and newly declassified, previously undisclosed national security documents, The Hundred-Year Marathon reveals China's secret strategy to supplant the United States as the world's dominant power, and to do so by 2049, the one-hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic. Michael Pillsbury, a fluent Mandarin speaker who has served in senior national security positions in the U.S. government since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, draws on his decades of contact with the "hawks" in China's military and intelligence agencies and translates their documents, speeches, and books to show how the teachings of traditional Chinese statecraft underpin their actions. He offers an inside look at how the Chinese really view America and its leaders – as barbarians who will be the architects of their own demise.
Pillsbury also explains how the U.S. government has helped – sometimes unwittingly and sometimes deliberately – to make this "China Dream" come true, and he calls for the United States to implement a new, more competitive strategy toward China as it really is, and not as we might wish it to be. The Hundred-Year Marathon is a wake-up call as we face the greatest national security challenge of the twenty-first century.
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The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower Paperback – March 15, 2016
by Michael Pillsbury (Author)
4.7 out of 5 stars 672 ratings
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“China’s ambition to become the world’s dominant power has been there all along, virtually burned into the country’s cultural DNA and hiding, as [Pillsbury] says, in plain sight… The author is correct to assert that China constitutes, by far, the biggest national challenge to America’s position in the world today.”―The Wall Street Journal
“Provocative…. detailed and rigorous. [Pillsbury is] right that for Washington, assessing the nature of China’s ambition, and responding to it effectively, may be the central foreign policy challenge of our time.”―Newsweek
“Pungently written and rich in detail, this book deserves to enter the mainstream of
debate over the future of U.S. Chinese relations.”―Foreign Affairs
“The Hundred-Year Marathon looks at the critical issues of who is in fact making policy in the Chinese capital and, as a result, it will be read, analyzed and debated for years. Think of Pillsbury as our time’s Paul Revere.”―Gordon Chang, The National Interest
“This is a highly engaging and thought-provoking read. It does what few books do well, and that is to mix scholarship, policy, and memoir-style writing in an accessible but still intellectually rich fashion. . . . Pillsbury . . . draw[s] on his extensive knowledge of Chinese historical military writings and theory as well as his interactions with Chinese defectors and senior military officers to develop a compelling analytical defense of this thesis. . . . In the end, whether you agree with Pillsbury or not, the book is well worth a careful read.”―Elizabeth Economy, Council on Foreign Relations
“Despite dealing with a weighty subject, Pillsbury says everything that he wants to say . . . [in] this highly readable book. It deserves to be widely read and debated.”―The Christian Science Monitor
“Pillsbury’s scholarship is buttressed by an eye-popping amount of declassified material…. Pillsbury’s key claim [is] that China… is methodically undertaking a ‘hundred-year marathon’ strategy to displace the United States as the global hegemon… The time is ripe to examine the trajectory of American relations with the world’s second-largest economy [and] the marathon is hardly over.”―The Weekly Standard
“Following the Communist victory in the Chinese civil war, Americans agonized over ‘Who lost China?’ If we do not recognize the Chinese party-state for the predatory animal that it is, in 20 years the question we will be asking ourselves is ‘Who lost the world?’ The answer will be, ‘We did.’”―The Washington Times
“A presentation of China’s hidden agenda grounded in the author’s longtime work at the U.S. Defense Department…. Fodder for concerned thought.”―Kirkus Reviews
“This is without question the most important book written about Chinese strategy and foreign policy in years. Michael Pillsbury has spent more than four decades for the Pentagon and the CIA talking to and learning from a core of Chinese ‘hard-liners’ who may be the driving force behind Chinese foreign policy today under Xi Jinping. Based on meticulous scholarship and written in lively, engaging prose, this book offers a sobering corrective to what has long been the dominant, soothing narrative of Sino-American cooperation.”―Robert Kagan, author of The World America Made and Of Paradise and Power
“A provocative exploration of the historical sources of China’s grand strategy to become #1.”―Graham Allison, Director of Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
“Michael Pillsbury has been meeting with, talking to, and studying the ‘hawks’ in China’s military and intelligence apparatus for more than four decades, since back when America and China were cooperating against the Soviet Union. In this fascinating, provocative new book, he lays out the hawks’ views about the United States and their long-term strategies for overcoming American power by the middle of this century. In the process, the book challenges the wrong-headed assumptions in Washington about a gradually reforming China. Given the direction China has been taking in the past few years, Pillsbury’s book takes on immediate relevance.”―James Mann, author of About Face: A History of America’s Curious Relationship with China, The China Fantasy, and Beijing Jeep
“The Hundred-Year Marathon is based on work that Michael Pillsbury did for the CIA that landed him the Director’s Exceptional Performance Award. It is a fascinating chronicle of his odyssey from the ranks of the ‘panda-huggers’ to a principled, highly informed, and lonely stance alerting us to China’s long-term strategy of achieving dominance. He shows that we face a clever, entrenched, and ambitious potential enemy, suffused with the shrewdness of Sun Tzu conducting a determined search for the best way to sever our Achilles’ heel. We have vital work to do, urgently.”―R. James Woolsey, former Director of Central Intelligence and chairman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies
About the Author
Michael Pillsbury is the director of the Center on Chinese Strategy at the Hudson Institute and has served in presidential administrations from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama. Educated at Stanford and Columbia Universities, he is a former analyst at the RAND Corporation and research fellow at Harvard and has served in senior positions in the Defense Department and on the staff of four U.S. Senate committees. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He lives in Washington, D.C.
Product details
Paperback: 352 pages
Publisher: St. Martin's Griffin; Reprint edition (March 15, 2016)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1250081343
ISBN-13: 978-1250081346
Product Dimensions: 5.6 x 1 x 8.3 inches
Shipping Weight: 10.4 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
Customer Reviews: 4.7 out of 5 stars672 customer ratings
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must read united states michael pillsbury well written hundred-year marathon warring states communist party north korea eye opening foreign policy long term hundred year years ago anyone interested eye opener pay attention states period read for anyone year marathon highly recommend
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Dan
3.0 out of 5 stars Good Insights - But Pillsbury is Still Naive
Reviewed in the United States on January 3, 2019
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I kind of liked this book, and learned from it, but also have significant problems with it.
First, let me state the strong point. This book is great for being able to read key quotes from primary Chinese documents and sources. Most reviews are overwhelmingly positive, so I want to focus my review on the underwhelming parts of this book.
Pillsbury is upfront about the fact that he used to be a duped fool and had poor analysis. He claims that he learned from it and has now changed his views to be more wary.
To me, it seems, he is still falling into the same trap of being naive. The enemy is still a couple steps ahead of Pillsbury.
His coverage of Golitsyn, a Russian defector from 1961, which opens up the book, is terrible.
He dismisses Golitsyn by saying he was a "conspiracy theorist and would later claim that British prime minister Harold Wilson was a KGB informant." That's quite a claim by Pillsbury!
In December of 1962, the pro-America labor party leader Gaitskell went to Russia. In January of 1963 he died of sickness at age 56. Harold Wilson took over the labor party and became Prime Minister. This is a guy who in the 1940s had been traveling to Russia.
Okay so Golitsyn, who defected in 1961, says that Wilson is a KGB agent... So how does Wilson rule? By keep close ties to KGB agents and handing out jobs to KGB agents.
Then Pillsbury goes on to imply Golitsyn was a Russian plant, notwithstanding the fact that Golitsyn helped catch Philby.
Pillsbury says the real truth teller was Nosenko. This was a guy who defected right after Oswald killed JFK to say that he had special information showing the KGB was not behind Oswald. He even claimed that, though Oswald had been a marine, operated sensitive radar tech in Japan, and lived in Russia, the KGB had never tried to recruit him.
I mean, give me a break! His take on Golitsyn and Nosenko is so silly it's hard for me to trust him.
A couple more critiques on the China parts of his book...
He frames China as being run by the "war hawks." But China is officially run by Communists. Xi sure seems like a Communist. But Pillsbury talks very little, or not at all, about their Communist ideology. A rather striking and bizarre omission.
Another problem, his views on Assassin's Mace are myopic. He never talks about the possibility that North Korea itself if their Mace. Further, despite the fact that he repeatedly quotes Chinese manuals which explicitly talk about using electromagnetic weapons--"The side with electromagnetic combat superiority will make full use of that Assassin's Mace weapon to win naval victory"--he will only very briefly refers euphemistically to an "EMP generation" to attack us... Little or no mention of nuclear EMP attack. He keeps honing in on laser threats, or missiles to destroy our satellites, when it would take just a single nuclear EMP strike to achieve all the things that China says it wants to achieve w Assassin Mace.
So bizarre.
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CSant
5.0 out of 5 stars It's hard to win when you don't know your competeing!
Reviewed in the United States on July 21, 2018
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I appreciated the author's perspective and willingness to be honest about his perspective and how it has changed and obviously been informed over the years. Having lived through, but not old enough to really have understood much of the political happenings of the 60's through the 80's this book gave me a new viewpoint to look through for today's international political happenings. I highly recommend this read to conservative and liberal thinkers alike. Mostly, I recommend it to people who take the time to stop and think.
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Stephen Alu
5.0 out of 5 stars The problem is not Russia but China.
Reviewed in the United States on August 8, 2018
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This book should be read by everyone who thinks Russia is our main problem.
What an eye opener.
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Thomas
5.0 out of 5 stars We can deal with China, just not as we have.
Reviewed in the United States on September 16, 2018
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What is interesting about this book is that the author admits his own ignorance and complicity in helping China to a position where they could become a real threat to the US and the world. I have worked in China and have two take away lessons. First, the Chinese make it incredibly difficult to identify the final decision maker and second, the culture is a "whatever it takes", rules, laws, norms be damned. That is not to say the Chinese are bad people, just different. Treating them, as our government has and expecting them to become a country of Thomas Jeffersons is just foolish.
66 people found this helpful
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DBecker
5.0 out of 5 stars Every US Citizen Should Read This Book... Period!
Reviewed in the United States on October 19, 2018
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China is now taking, has always been taking, and plans in the future on taking this country for a ride. And it is about time the US does something about it! When you read this book, you can draw no other conclusion.
The US has a very open, trusting and helping culture, which separates this country from any other in the world and makes me proud to be an American (or at least it used to, but I believe we'll make it back). And China is taking serious advantage of that culture; compounded by the useless, bi-partisan bickering of our politics, both of which are playing right into their hands. Like a magician that distracts our attention from what is really going on. But this is not for entertainment, it is to build China in its Politburo's (not people's no less) interest, at the expense of severely, and potentially irreparably diminishing the United States. I pray to God the country wakes up in time to save ourselves or our children, who already are, will pay en even more tremendous price.
49 people found this helpful
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Darren
4.0 out of 5 stars If you are concerned about China, read this.
Reviewed in the United States on September 20, 2018
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I wrote a big, rambling review, but I decided to keep it much shorter. The author answered many of the questions I had concerning China and it's global expansion (social, economic, military, religious ). I hunted down many of the author's research notes and I agree with the author: China is definitely molding the world to exist under the China umbrella, and they will do anything and everything to ensure it occurs.
29 people found this helpful
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H. Pawlowski
5.0 out of 5 stars Enlightening information
Reviewed in the United States on August 9, 2018
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A picture of the Chinese challenge painted in an easily understood format. I was left with a feeling I understand now the challenge we face with the Chinese ascendancy and the challenge that present to American dominance of the commercial and military world order. A real challenge we have to recognize and commit to winning.
30 people found this helpful
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Humble
5.0 out of 5 stars Much to learn and unlearn
Reviewed in the United States on February 3, 2018
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5 star rating for an author who has been there and done that. His insights derived from being a Chinese sympathizer to one who has unmasked their intentions are startling and impossible to refute.
36 people found this helpful
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Top international reviews
Adrian J. Smith
5.0 out of 5 stars A wakeup call!
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on September 27, 2016
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The Hundred Year Marathon is an earth shattering account of how a whole generation of US government officials and China experts have gotten China completely wrong, and how US China policy is grounded in naivety and wishful thinking. Among the main misconceptions Pillsbury highlights in his book are;
China’s Hawks are far more numerous and influential than were previously thought, and even mainstream politicians are not as moderate as they appear
The US fundamentally does not grasp Chinese strategic thinking. China’s strategy is extremely patient, very far sighted, and relies on exploiting externalities and weaknesses, and most of all, relies upon deception
The Sino-Soviet Split was never fully understood, and warnings from the Soviets were not fully heeded
The initial 1971 opening to China by Nixon was largely a Chinese initiative, not an American one as commonly believed
The tone of Pillsbury’s book is not so much that we have been caught unawares, but rather that the signs are there, but many have chosen to ignore them through sheer idealism and wishful thinking. The nature of China’s intent is quite clear, an analogy is a Chinese artist and special effects maestro blowing up a Christmas Tree on the National Mall, China has signalled it’s contempt to the international order and it’s willingness to overturn it, only it is playing the long game because time is on it’s side.
Pillsbury has highlighted how the Chinese are extremely patient, and very well disciplined, and have rigorously followed stratagems from both the Warring States period and are applying it to the present day. The key concepts are Shi, essentially the order of things, the momentum in the world, Wuwei, the exploitation of energy and getting others to do one’s work for you (eg the US depleting the USSR in the Cold War), and Shashoubian, The Assassin’s Mace, essentially aysmetric warfare or weapons that strike at an Achilles Heel.
Pillsbury contends that a China centric world order is not coming around any time soon, essentially not until 2049, and if the GDP of China’s is triple that of the US, then China wins by default, however Pillsbury believes that the future need not be so bleak.
Pillsbury has illustrated a long running narrative of national grievances toward China, wherein China is the victim and it’s rightful place in the world has been denied. Additionally, a completely fictional narrative wherein every President since John Tyler (a forgotten President in the West, but the first to sign a Treaty with China) has sought to contain and undermine China.
As someone who has lived in China for 6 years, and have conversed and interacted with Chinese throughout the country, it can clearly be felt that such narratives and demonizations of the United States are very widespread, and widely believed.
As China has had very little tolerance for any kind of vocal dissent from the party line, this hostility toward free expression is being internationalized, with websites critical of China being attacked, and denying visas to journalists and other critics of China, a sanction the author himself was subject to, but was rescinded in the hopes of changing his views.
Pillsbury contends that we should be less afraid to be critical of China, as accomodation of China’s thin-skinned sensibilities decreases any chance of behavioral change and paves the way for a future wherein we all, or at least those of us who care about free expression, lose.
Pillsbury’s book is eye opening, and as a China resident, I am unable to refute most of what he says about Chinese narratives, propaganda, or strategic thinking. For many, this book is a wake up call, for others such as myself, it confirmed and exacerbated previously held views.
In short, a truly compelling account.
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Denis Selinas
3.0 out of 5 stars Detailed but unbalanced, written by a US hawk advising Donald Trump.
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on January 18, 2020
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I was quite impressed by the books first few chapters and the in-depth analysis that MP presents in the book. I cannot comment on his main thesis which describes how China through a very strategic approach and a 100-year plan, it strives to surpass the US in economic and partially in military domains. There are two main issues with the book:
- the views presented by the author although may be correct and deeply researched (the Chinese are likely to have a plan which is enabled through an undemocratic yet more consistent political system in that they dont live from tweet to tweet as US politicians do nowadays) however are in no way balanced. When he refers to stolen technology by the US from the British in the 19th century, it is in the context of this is how the Chinese have analysed the US's path to development. It could be less biased and more apologetic by comparing China's policies to US ones in the 19th Century
- nowhere does he 'excuse' the Chinese for viewing the US as a global hegemon that uses economic tools and the USD post war institutional infrastructure to unilaterally impose punishment on its enemies as well as its military power to again act as a hegemon
In summary, he is a US hawk who is responsible for partly developing Trump's China policy. Nowhere is it explained that the US population enjoyed cheap imports and its labour and businesses could focus on higher value added products and technology. Nevertheless, a good book to read to understand how current US thinking towards China is shaped.
MP seems sour grapes for the US has been outsmarted and outmanoeuvred by the Chinese.
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GNGY
5.0 out of 5 stars A very intresting and Essential Read
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on March 20, 2019
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Very interesting book , that makes you rethink the reason behind some of the global incidents that have happened. Knocks a sense of reality into those people who have been ignoring China and focusing on the obvious rogues in the world
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Muhammad A Ismail
4.0 out of 5 stars Great
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on March 8, 2018
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Anyone interested in China, which should be everyone, should read this. Well researched and written. The author brings his experience to the fore.
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Virginia Gheorghiu
5.0 out of 5 stars Unbelievable story of the rise of China
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on January 30, 2019
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A must read for China Usa relationship
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The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower
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The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower
by Michael Pillsbury
4.22 · Rating details · 1,666 ratings · 208 reviews
One of the U.S. government's leading China experts reveals the hidden strategy fueling that country's rise – and how Americans have been seduced into helping China overtake us as the world's leading superpower.
For more than forty years, the United States has played an indispensable role helping the Chinese government build a booming economy, develop its scientific and mili ...more
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Published February 3rd 2015 by Henry Holt and Co. (first published November 11th 2014)
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The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower
The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower
Stoletý maraton: Tajná čínská strategie, jak vystřídat Ameriku v roli globální supervelmoci a nastolit čínský světový řád
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Bradley
Mar 22, 2020Bradley rated it it was amazing
Shelves: political, 2020-shelf, non-fiction
I was not surprised as I read this book.
I've been through my own intellectual crisis, reading many political books, watching the news, freaking out about the Tiananmen Square Massacre, and generally trying to get a general drift of China in global politics. Bits and pieces came to light from the time of Mao, the Cultural Revolution, the closing and opening of borders, Nixion, and then the great strategy boiled down to: "When capable, feign incapacity."
This book spells it all out, but let me make an analogy.
You know that A-Type next-door neighbor of yours that is totally driven, at all costs, to succeed? The one who was really rude to you until you got your own really excellent job? The one who didn't give you the time of day until you brought home your Mercedes?
Yeah, that one. The one who suddenly became all smiles and showed appreciation for all your wonderful accomplishments, but you later, (much later,) discovered that he was talking massive amounts of shit about you to his family, his extended family, and harshly shut down any lines of communication between his children and yours? Or the fact that for the last 20 (or is it 30, now?) years, he's been borrowing all your tools in your garage and never giving them back, has been using your accountant, has been making copies of all your entire movie collection, and during that entire time, he has always made that class of major justifications: "I'm not lucky, I just never got the breaks I needed, I'm physically unable to do the work, my boss hates me..." and you, like the chump you are, loaned him money, taught him everything you knew about how to make it big, and your wife and children STILL give the family charitable donations.
Take that analogy and apply it to China and USA. Not only is the censorship rampant over there, but all their schools teach total BS about how America has been pushing down China for the last 150 years. Anyone sent over in official capacities will look shamefaced about this and so many other facts, say it's just a small minority in their government and smile. Officials have been doing nothing but reassure and make all the right noises to the West, making promises and yet always breaking them.
This isn't about rogue elements in China, you know. They are autocratic. The Hawks established a plan to pretend weakness, get others to do all the heavy lifting for them, and get so strong, economically, that they will replace the West as the most dominant power in the world. They're actions speak powerfully and clearly. They have a long-term plan. Say whatever they need in order to get to the top, make sure they indoctrinate each generation to massively distrust other systems (first Russia, then America) and take the slow path to total dominance.
Again, this shouldn't come as any surprise. Any country with designs on power will go about things in a similar way.
But here's the thing: this book is written by someone who has been deep in the policy-and-analysis end of things in America. He had his own disillusionment, first believing that the best road was through peace and mutual aid. When the weight of such proof of duplicity in united fronts became too obvious, he spoke out. More and more proof is everywhere. 70% of all electronic intrusions come from China. There is near-total disdain for ecological problems including the cancer rates in their own population caused by industrial pollution. Free speech is nearly nonexistent. There has been a near-total eradication of the very IDEA of the Tiananmen Square Massacre in China. Those dissidents who DID want to have an honest partnership with the world were subsequently murdered or imprisoned.
And all the while, official faces try to disarm and downplay all this and say all the right things to get more money, aid, and technology. (Although, I'm sure by now, technology isn't all that required. They send tons of students abroad every year to get as much as they want.)
And the poor-me scenario? Their GNP tripled between 1997 and 2007. And yet, they're still playing the same card. Coal power is blanketing the skies in neighboring countries.
I'm not being alarmist. Anyone who keeps up with the news can piece together a much larger picture than I can in a short review. I find it very telling that both Russia and China are united in painting America as devils, however, and not in some piecemeal way. I'm talking systematic, state-sponsored propaganda. (less)
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Josh
Feb 09, 2015Josh rated it really liked it
This review is long because the book deserves it. Most of the review will involve disagreement, because agreement is easy to express, while disagreement requires elaboration. But as a whole, this book is interesting and I recommend it without reservation.
Having heard much about this book, I was compelled to read it in one sitting. The obvious strengths of this book are the expertise and credibility of the author, and the truly original material brought to light within the book, some of it declassified specifically for the publication of this book. The author has had a front-row seat to Sino-American diplomacy for forty years, and the stories are exhilarating, as if lifted from a spy novel.
But ultimately, this book is not a memoir, it is meant to be read as a foreign policy prescriptive. As to the main message of the book - that China seeks to displace the US as the world hegemon through a patient accumulation of national power - the author lays out a convincing case that should give any reader pause. However, the book has some weaknesses that prevent it from being as maximally persuasive as it could be.
But first, a step back. This book cannot be evaluated without reference to its self-admitted impetus and foil, On China, by Kissinger. Kissinger's book, like this one, is half-storytelling, half-whitepaper. Kissinger's main strength is in describing Chinese strategic problems from the Chinese perspective, giving their actions rationality, and ultimately, showing something close to sympathy. He regards Mao and Zhou Enlai as peers who play the game well, and gives them professional respect, even admiration. However, one can never shake the feeling that this intelligent man has been less-that-truthful. As someone still very much still in the game, his book seems like a bit of knowing triangulation, with various layers of signalling buried within the book, intended for different audiences. His prescriptions at the end read more like diplomacy than honesty - the book is simply an extension of his day job.
In contrast, Pillsbury has an admirable directness to his book. His cards are on the table, he appears to have no greater ambition that to get the truth out. His policy prescriptions seem heartfelt and written in good faith. His weakness is a certain one-note myopia. Let's recall the state of affairs during Nixon: Vietnam, stagflation, OPEC embargoes. Or how about Reagan: West Germany and Japan in economic ascendancy, a conciliatory Gorbachev. These US-China diplomatic moves happened in the context of greater US strategic goals, and one cannot accurately assess the success of Chinese subterfuge without analyzing this context.
This leads to another point, left unexplored in the book. Pillsbury gives a few examples of Western intelligence choosing to believe a Russian or Chinese false defector over the real one. Pillsbury points out the cause - the false defector tells Americans what they want to hear. But why is this so effective? It is precisely due to this one-note myopia. In the euphoria of the post-Cold War Clinton years, the US was busy counting out the peace dividend and reading Fukuyama's The End of History and the Last Man. Of course China could convince America of the inevitability of Chinese democracy, as the American policy establishment had already done a through job convincing itself. It is this same self-belief that (I believe) led to the various blunders of the present day, from deposing Gaddafi and Mubarak in the name of the Arab Spring, to finally Assad, Maliki, and ISIS. Unlike Kissinger, who can seamlessly slip into Zhou Enlai's shoes and sympathize with his plight, Pillsbury can't see the Chinese view. For a book that claims to understand the secret machinations of the Chinese government, this is a significant problem. He explains the application of ancient Chinese texts to modern Chinese thinking, but he doesn't acknowledge or give any agreement to the fundamental Chinese motivations - worries about the US fomenting rebellion in China, for example. To Pillsbury, it's just paranoia. So close, yet so far.
Pillsbury quotes one Russian joke about the future Politburo being all Chinese. He remarks that he later began to appreciate the truth within it. That reminded me of another Russian joke that has gained some notoriety.
Q: Why are there no revolutions in America?
A: Because there are no American embassies in America.
It seems that Pillsbury wouldn't appreciate this joke, while Kissinger would give a winking chuckle.
Personal Observations:
The greatest impression this book gave me was the maturity and competence of Soviet intelligence. They understood and anticipated the Chinese pivot to the US, and apparently took it in stride, understanding that it was in the natural interests of both the US and China, and simply sought to limit the damage, rather than expend resources in a futile effort to prevent it. I imagine a similar level of competence is at play in the current Ukrainian conflict, and in Russia's handling of both China and Germany. (less)
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Owlseyes
Nov 12, 2016Owlseyes marked it as to-read
Recommends it for: Hadrian my american friend
Recommended to Owlseyes by: Mychinesefriend
Shelves: 2030-double-of-usa-economy, 2049-promised-softpower, gearing-up-for-world-domination, china-led-world-order, met-with-liu-xiaobo, usa-outwitted, geopolitics-of-east-asia, foreign-policy, hidden-strategy, trump-dream-is-what
Tao Xie Professor, at Beijing Foreign Studies University, on the book: "a total conspiracy theory".
Beijing paper cover 'Outsider strikes back'
"We're in year 65". Thence 35 more years to go.
2049: ends marathon.
With Abe's rush-visit to the USA next week, many wonder about Asia; how will Trump handle the "pivot"? Some speak of "unpredictability", some of "isolationism"; others about "the deal-maker" or even the "outsourcing". True, many "unknowns". The Dragon is watching, in the meantime.
(view spoiler)
UPDATE
2019
Pillsbury had a point. No doubts. But, for how long this Trade War?
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-ec... (less)
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Kian
Apr 08, 2015Kian rated it did not like it
Shelves: china
The book's main flaw is that it is essentially a case of the pot calling the kettle black. It is a paranoid analysis of the current Sino-American situation (or shi) by a China dove turned hawk, who is now alarmed the US is losing its grip on overwhelming geopolitical power. A person who once acted as a spy complaining about subterfuge and deception is rather self-serving. But the theme of good vs. evil allows the good side to be excused for doing the same thing because its "intention" is good. A fog of self-delusion about its goodness (i.e. moral superiority stemming from amnesia of its past bad deeds along with the Christian messiah complex) is what blinds the US from fully seeing the world as it is. In other words, the US is no different from China, except the US is in a position to do more damage. (less)
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Daniel
May 19, 2019Daniel rated it it was amazing
Pillsbury used to be supportive of China, but later got disillusioned with it. He was welcomed when he was supportive, but denied visa and access when he became critical. According to Pillsbury:
1. China is patient and can plan for 100 years. and it knows how to play Go (wei qi) very well. All the friendly gestures are fake, and the politburo thinks America is the enemy, intent on suppressing its peaceful rise. He posited that all the American leaders had not been able to see though China’s real ...more
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Tom LA
Feb 16, 2018Tom LA added it
Not finished yet but it won’t let me write more than 420 characters in the update box.
So.... I’m confused. The author tries to make the case that “China has been duping us all by pretending to not be interested in global hegemony, while in reality it is and it’s always been”. My question is : so what? It’s not like this is a terrible secret that changes everything.
In fact, given the direction and the unstoppable force of the Chinese economy, China’s upcoming economic hegemony is out there, for ...more
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Wilson
Jan 05, 2019Wilson rated it it was amazing
Shelves: decision-making, information-warfare, innovation, marketing, national-strategy, psychology, nonfiction, favorites
“The best way to win a race is to be the only one that knows there is a race”
This book should give us all pause as to what China is doing across the world and the perception it is laying out to all observers.
Do yourself a favor and read this book. If you have any interest on what’s going to happen in the next 20 years, a big player involves one that is in this book.
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Bill Powers
Mar 24, 2019Bill Powers rated it it was amazing
In The Hundred-Year Marathon, Michael Pillsbury has done an excellent job explaining China’s long-term plan to catch-up to and replace the United States as the single global hegemon – from both an economic and military standpoint and how China’s plan involves using the United States to achieve their goals. Pillsbury even admits that as a “US China expert”, he was fooled by China for many years.
Granted it is one man’s point of view, but it is one that should be taken seriously. Hopefully people in leadership roles in our government are taking Pillsbury’s views into consideration before it is too late.
I highly recommend.
(less)
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Adrian
Sep 27, 2016Adrian rated it it was amazing · review of another edition
The Hundred Year Marathon is an earth shattering account of how a whole generation of US government officials and China experts have gotten China completely wrong, and how US China policy is grounded in naivety and wishful thinking. Among the main misconceptions Pillsbury highlights in his book are;
China’s Hawks are far more numerous and influential than were previously thought, and even mainstream politicians are not as moderate as they appear
The US fundamentally does not grasp Chinese stra ...more
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Robert Sanek
Apr 01, 2019Robert Sanek rated it did not like it
Shelves: listened-to
Listened to about 2 hours of this. There are two key problems with the book.
The first is that it seems like almost all of the content depends on just one source, the author. There are a bunch of red flags in the text that point to this, like the conspiratorial language that's used, the author's insistence that other China experts don't understand Chinese nearly as well as he does (and so should be ignored), or claims that others have been successfully 'duped' by China's public statements but that Pillsbury has spoken to former USSR operatives and knows what's really going on. Having a single source doesn't always mean a book is problematic; philosophical or autobiographical texts tend to have this same attribute and can work fine. But when you make a bunch of claims about a nation of over a billion people based on only personal experience and a claimed better understanding of Mandarin, I think it's fair to cry foul.
The second deals with the thesis of the book. Throughout the beginning chapters, Pillsbury keeps talking about how China wants to overtake the US, how they're not OK playing second-fiddle, how China has tried to deceive the US into thinking they don't have world leader ambitions, etc. The language and tone in which the author presents these ideas is meant to evoke fear, concern, and surprise on the side of the reader. But this is totally unsurprising to me: wouldn't it make sense that China intends to be #1, especially when it has the greatest population? Becoming the world's leading power is a very reasonable long-term goal for any nation-state. Pillsbury's presentation is akin a basketball coach telling his players things like "the other team wants to beat us!" and "you don't get it, they want to be the champions, they're not OK taking second place!" I think most people would be confused that the coach would think players need to be reminded of this key attribute of any competition.
Not recommended. (less)
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Laurence Giliotti
Sep 11, 2019Laurence Giliotti rated it it was amazing
If you are a new observer to the rise of China, or have followed the political, military and economic event for decades this is a worthwhile read.
In the first case: It serves as a primer to bring you up to speed (at least to 2015) with a perspective to assess the current government focus on Sino-American issues.
In the second: It is a well documented walk down memory lane from an author who has spent his professional career immersed in the issues. Although, I can think of dangerous blunders made by past presidential administrations that are not mentioned, it is a very readable and comprehensive work. (less)
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A Man Called Ove
Jun 24, 2019A Man Called Ove rated it liked it
Shelves: current-affairs-analysis
“It is China’s intention to be the greatest power in the world and to be accepted as China, not as an honorary member of the West.… At the core of their mind-set is their world before colonization and the exploitation and humiliation that brought. If you believe that there is going to be a revolution of some sort in China for democracy, you are wrong.… The Chinese people want a revived China. Their great advantage is not in military influence but in their economic influence.… Their influence can only grow and grow beyond the capabilities of America.” - Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore as quoted by this book.
Let us rewind a bit - When the Berlin Wall came down and Cold War ended in 1989, 2 books came about predicting the future of the world's politics :-
a) The End of History and the Last Man - by Francis Fukuyama which said that liberal democracy had won decisively as an idea over other forms of government and that the nations of the world would keep moving towards it.
b) The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order by Samuel Huntington which said that the new world order would be defined by civilizational borders and clashes between them.
I remember reading a hard realist Indian leader writing in an Op-ed "China's foreign policy is based on deception." The author's thesis is that China has deceived the world and continues to deceive wrt its future intentions. While the West especially the pot-smokers, reality-deniers AKA the left-liberals presume that it is moving towards liberal democracy, it is NOT. For that matter, unfortunately, even if you think "The Clash of Civilizations" idea is untrue, it is beyond doubt that "History Zinda hai" :) Liberalism is considered a Western idea and regimes are coming out with their own value-systems - Islamic, Chinese, Hindutva, or based on national identities. And if a regime can get its economics right, it can get away with illiberalism.
China AKA The Middle Kingdom intends to dominate the world economically and militarily in a World Order where it occupies the center. While this may not sound a problem, it becomes a problem when you consider that the Chinese do not believe in liberalism, human rights or fair play in foreign policy. This was also the sense I got from a book I read recently Belt and Road: The Sinews of Chinese Power.
Wish though that the author had toned down some statements that felt like exaggerations. Ironically, sometimes he felt like an American hawk himself. (less)
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Cav
May 06, 2020Cav rated it it was amazing · review of another edition
Shelves: culture, history, politics, war, favorites, asia
This was an absolute powerhouse of a book. Author Michael Pillsbury is a former US Government official with 4+ decades of experience in dealing with China, through various administrations and capacities.
Michael-Pillsbury-49625554677
Pillsworth lays out his thesis early on in the book:
"As I assembled clues contradicting the conventional narrative about China that I had always believed, I starting connecting the pieces of an alternative narrative of roughly the past four decades. Over time, I discovered proposals by Chines ...more
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Michael
Jan 07, 2015Michael rated it liked it
I reviewed a pre-publication copy of Michael Pillsbury’s book, The Hundred Year Marathon, subtitled China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower. This book was an eye-opener for me in a number of ways. Let me begin by saying that I am a ‘layman’ interested in China who spent 30 years directly or indirectly working for the technical and analytic sides of the intelligence community—none of them involving China.
He distances himself for so-called China experts who do not have a fluent grasp of spoken and written Mandarin or the history of ancient China. He has a practical background in the language, literature, and history of China. My conclusion is that Michael Pillsbury knows his stuff when it comes to his area of expertise.
I found Dr. Pillsbury’s explanation of the Warring Period of China’s history to explain a lot, which certainly was his intention in this book. Since he found so many direct quotations from or subtle references to the 36 Strategies in modern Chinese military writings, it seems he is on to something when he reveals what he calls a hidden strategy that the senior foreign policy leadership of the U.S. do not know or refuse to accept.
I appreciated his extensive use of untranslated books, articles, monographs, and reports obtained from high-ranking, cooperative Chinese army officers or from Chinese defectors with inside information. These extensively footnoted sources clearly support his claim that China has a long-term strategy of lulling the U.S. into friendly cooperation while secretly pressing toward their goal of defeating the U.S. and becoming the world’s hegemon by the year 2049.
This book is not for the casual reader or for someone with only a passing interest in China since it delves heavily into esoteric and nuanced policy arguments. China “wonks” will read it because it stirs up controversies that analysts will argue abut between now and 2049. For those who are not fluent in Mandarin, who are immersed in U.S. foreign policy with China, or who have ongoing commercial business in the country or with its official representatives, this book is a must-read. If they do not grasp the hidden agenda that guides all Chinese interactions with the U.S., they contribute to the decline of the U.S. and will empower China’s rise to the world stage as the next superpower. (less)
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Julie Clark
Feb 12, 2015Julie Clark rated it it was amazing
The Hundred Year Marathon is a book that will make you rethink everything you thought you knew about the relationship between China and the US. Even if you don’t think this is something that will affect you, I can promise you this book will change your mind.
The insights Michael Pillsbury provides on China- US relations will give you chills. The information is well sourced, presented in a way that shows the bold truth on this subject matter. It’s broken down in easy to understand terms, making i ...more
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Alexander Fitzgerald
Feb 28, 2019Alexander Fitzgerald rated it it was amazing
An extremely enjoyable book about the chess game China and the United States are playing.
The author admits he felt fooled by China. He says he was in their corner for years while working for the United States
While I'm sure a great deal of this book is Pillsbury's conjecture and opinion, I respect his honesty. I trust men who own up to mistakes that attack their credibility. He lets you know where he's coming from.
As with all matters, you need to read ten opposing books to get any idea of what's ...more
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Lauren
Nov 05, 2017Lauren rated it liked it
While setting timelines and predictions is always a difficult business, since China has already done us the favor of setting its two centenary goals, Pillsbury's book -- despite the rhetorical blunder -- offers an American perspective on Chinese efforts to reach both goals. It also offers an inside look at how one of Trump's "people" thinks about China policy. Hawkish and full of China threat theory in its finest form, but worth pressing on, if one can get beyond the memoir style rife with self-importance. (less)
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