Hundred-Year Marathon: Michael Pillsbury
: 9781250081346: Amazon.com: Books
One of the U.S. government's leading China experts reveals the hidden strategy fueling that country's rise – and how Americans have been seduced into helping China overtake us as the world's leading superpower.
For more than forty years, the United States has played an indispensable role helping the Chinese government build a booming economy, develop its scientific and military capabilities, and take its place on the world stage, in the belief that China's rise will bring us cooperation, diplomacy, and free trade. But what if the "China Dream" is to replace us, just as America replaced the British Empire, without firing a shot?
Based on interviews with Chinese defectors and newly declassified, previously undisclosed national security documents, The Hundred-Year Marathon reveals China's secret strategy to supplant the United States as the world's dominant power, and to do so by 2049, the one-hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic. Michael Pillsbury, a fluent Mandarin speaker who has served in senior national security positions in the U.S. government since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger,
One of the U.S. government's leading China experts reveals the hidden strategy fueling that country's rise – and how Americans have been seduced into helping China overtake us as the world's leading superpower.
For more than forty years, the United States has played an indispensable role helping the Chinese government build a booming economy, develop its scientific and military capabilities, and take its place on the world stage, in the belief that China's rise will bring us cooperation, diplomacy, and free trade. But what if the "China Dream" is to replace us, just as America replaced the British Empire, without firing a shot?
Based on interviews with Chinese defectors and newly declassified, previously undisclosed national security documents, The Hundred-Year Marathon reveals China's secret strategy to supplant the United States as the world's dominant power, and to do so by 2049, the one-hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic. Michael Pillsbury, a fluent Mandarin speaker who has served in senior national security positions in the U.S. government since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger,
draws on his decades of contact with the "hawks" in China's military and intelligence agencies and translates their documents, speeches, and books to show how the teachings of traditional Chinese statecraft underpin their actions. He offers an inside look at how the Chinese really view America and its leaders – as barbarians who will be the architects of their own demise.
Pillsbury also explains how the U.S. government has helped – sometimes unwittingly and sometimes deliberately – to make this "China Dream" come true, and he calls for the United States to implement a new, more competitive strategy toward China as it really is, and not as we might wish it to be. The Hundred-Year Marathon is a wake-up call as we face the greatest national security challenge of the twenty-first century.
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Showing 1-10 of 366 reviews
CSant
5.0 out of 5 starsIt's hard to win when you don't know your competeing!July 21, 2018
I appreciated the author's perspective and willingness to be honest about his perspective and how it has changed and obviously been informed over the years. Having lived through, but not old enough to really have understood much of the political happenings of the 60's through the 80's this book gave me a new viewpoint to look through for today's international political happenings. I highly recommend this read to conservative and liberal thinkers alike. Mostly, I recommend it to people who take the time to stop and think.
49 people found this helpful
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Dan
3.0 out of 5 starsGood Insights - But Pillsbury is Still NaiveJanuary 3, 2019
Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase
I kind of liked this book, and learned from it, but also have significant problems with it.
First, let me state the strong point. This book is great for being able to read key quotes from primary Chinese documents and sources. Most reviews are overwhelmingly positive, so I want to focus my review on the underwhelming parts of this book.
Pillsbury is upfront about the fact that he used to be a duped fool and had poor analysis. He claims that he learned from it and has now changed his views to be more wary.
To me, it seems, he is still falling into the same trap of being naive. The enemy is still a couple steps ahead of Pillsbury.
His coverage of Golitsyn, a Russian defector from 1961, which opens up the book, is terrible.
He dismisses Golitsyn by saying he was a "conspiracy theorist and would later claim that British prime minister Harold Wilson was a KGB informant." That's quite a claim by Pillsbury!
In December of 1962, the pro-America labor party leader Gaitskell went to Russia. In January of 1963 he died of sickness at age 56. Harold Wilson took over the labor party and became Prime Minister. This is a guy who in the 1940s had been traveling to Russia.
Okay so Golitsyn, who defected in 1961, says that Wilson is a KGB agent... So how does Wilson rule? By keep close ties to KGB agents and handing out jobs to KGB agents.
Then Pillsbury goes on to imply Golitsyn was a Russian plant, notwithstanding the fact that Golitsyn helped catch Philby.
Pillsbury says the real truth teller was Nosenko. This was a guy who defected right after Oswald killed JFK to say that he had special information showing the KGB was not behind Oswald. He even claimed that, though Oswald had been a marine, operated sensitive radar tech in Japan, and lived in Russia, the KGB had never tried to recruit him.
I mean, give me a break! His take on Golitsyn and Nosenko is so silly it's hard for me to trust him.
A couple more critiques on the China parts of his book...
He frames China as being run by the "war hawks." But China is officially run by Communists. Xi sure seems like a Communist. But Pillsbury talks very little, or not at all, about their Communist ideology. A rather striking and bizarre omission.
Another problem, his views on Assassin's Mace are myopic. He never talks about the possibility that North Korea itself if their Mace. Further, despite the fact that he repeatedly quotes Chinese manuals which explicitly talk about using electromagnetic weapons--"The side with electromagnetic combat superiority will make full use of that Assassin's Mace weapon to win naval victory"--he will only very briefly refers euphemistically to an "EMP generation" to attack us... Little or no mention of nuclear EMP attack. He keeps honing in on laser threats, or missiles to destroy our satellites, when it would take just a single nuclear EMP strike to achieve all the things that China says it wants to achieve w Assassin Mace.
So bizarre.
35 people found this helpful
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Stephen Alu
5.0 out of 5 starsThe problem is not Russia but China.August 8, 2018
Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase
This book should be read by everyone who thinks Russia is our main problem.
What an eye opener.
43 people found this helpful
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Thomas
5.0 out of 5 starsWe can deal with China, just not as we have.September 16, 2018
Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase
What is interesting about this book is that the author admits his own ignorance and complicity in helping China to a position where they could become a real threat to the US and the world.
Pillsbury also explains how the U.S. government has helped – sometimes unwittingly and sometimes deliberately – to make this "China Dream" come true, and he calls for the United States to implement a new, more competitive strategy toward China as it really is, and not as we might wish it to be. The Hundred-Year Marathon is a wake-up call as we face the greatest national security challenge of the twenty-first century.
---
Showing 1-10 of 366 reviews
CSant
5.0 out of 5 starsIt's hard to win when you don't know your competeing!July 21, 2018
I appreciated the author's perspective and willingness to be honest about his perspective and how it has changed and obviously been informed over the years. Having lived through, but not old enough to really have understood much of the political happenings of the 60's through the 80's this book gave me a new viewpoint to look through for today's international political happenings. I highly recommend this read to conservative and liberal thinkers alike. Mostly, I recommend it to people who take the time to stop and think.
49 people found this helpful
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Dan
3.0 out of 5 starsGood Insights - But Pillsbury is Still NaiveJanuary 3, 2019
Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase
I kind of liked this book, and learned from it, but also have significant problems with it.
First, let me state the strong point. This book is great for being able to read key quotes from primary Chinese documents and sources. Most reviews are overwhelmingly positive, so I want to focus my review on the underwhelming parts of this book.
Pillsbury is upfront about the fact that he used to be a duped fool and had poor analysis. He claims that he learned from it and has now changed his views to be more wary.
To me, it seems, he is still falling into the same trap of being naive. The enemy is still a couple steps ahead of Pillsbury.
His coverage of Golitsyn, a Russian defector from 1961, which opens up the book, is terrible.
He dismisses Golitsyn by saying he was a "conspiracy theorist and would later claim that British prime minister Harold Wilson was a KGB informant." That's quite a claim by Pillsbury!
In December of 1962, the pro-America labor party leader Gaitskell went to Russia. In January of 1963 he died of sickness at age 56. Harold Wilson took over the labor party and became Prime Minister. This is a guy who in the 1940s had been traveling to Russia.
Okay so Golitsyn, who defected in 1961, says that Wilson is a KGB agent... So how does Wilson rule? By keep close ties to KGB agents and handing out jobs to KGB agents.
Then Pillsbury goes on to imply Golitsyn was a Russian plant, notwithstanding the fact that Golitsyn helped catch Philby.
Pillsbury says the real truth teller was Nosenko. This was a guy who defected right after Oswald killed JFK to say that he had special information showing the KGB was not behind Oswald. He even claimed that, though Oswald had been a marine, operated sensitive radar tech in Japan, and lived in Russia, the KGB had never tried to recruit him.
I mean, give me a break! His take on Golitsyn and Nosenko is so silly it's hard for me to trust him.
A couple more critiques on the China parts of his book...
He frames China as being run by the "war hawks." But China is officially run by Communists. Xi sure seems like a Communist. But Pillsbury talks very little, or not at all, about their Communist ideology. A rather striking and bizarre omission.
Another problem, his views on Assassin's Mace are myopic. He never talks about the possibility that North Korea itself if their Mace. Further, despite the fact that he repeatedly quotes Chinese manuals which explicitly talk about using electromagnetic weapons--"The side with electromagnetic combat superiority will make full use of that Assassin's Mace weapon to win naval victory"--he will only very briefly refers euphemistically to an "EMP generation" to attack us... Little or no mention of nuclear EMP attack. He keeps honing in on laser threats, or missiles to destroy our satellites, when it would take just a single nuclear EMP strike to achieve all the things that China says it wants to achieve w Assassin Mace.
So bizarre.
35 people found this helpful
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Stephen Alu
5.0 out of 5 starsThe problem is not Russia but China.August 8, 2018
Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase
This book should be read by everyone who thinks Russia is our main problem.
What an eye opener.
43 people found this helpful
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Thomas
5.0 out of 5 starsWe can deal with China, just not as we have.September 16, 2018
Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase
What is interesting about this book is that the author admits his own ignorance and complicity in helping China to a position where they could become a real threat to the US and the world.
I have worked in China and have two take away lessons. First, the Chinese make it incredibly difficult to identify the final decision maker and second, the culture is a "whatever it takes", rules, laws, norms be damned. That is not to say the Chinese are bad people, just different. Treating them, as our government has and expecting them to become a country of Thomas Jeffersons is just foolish.
32 people found this helpful
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DBecker
5.0 out of 5 starsEvery US Citizen Should Read This Book... Period!October 19, 2018
Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase
China is now taking, has always been taking, and plans in the future on taking this country for a ride. And it is about time the US does something about it! When you read this book, you can draw no other conclusion.
The US has a very open, trusting and helping culture, which separates this country from any other in the world and makes me proud to be an American (or at least it used to, but I believe we'll make it back). And China is taking serious advantage of that culture; compounded by the useless, bi-partisan bickering of our politics, both of which are playing right into their hands. Like a magician that distracts our attention from what is really going on. But this is not for entertainment, it is to build China in its Politburo's (not people's no less) interest, at the expense of severely, and potentially irreparably diminishing the United States. I pray to God the country wakes up in time to save ourselves or our children, who already are, will pay en even more tremendous price.
20 people found this helpful
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H. Pawlowski
5.0 out of 5 starsEnlightening informationAugust 9, 2018
Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase
A picture of the Chinese challenge painted in an easily understood format. I was left with a feeling I understand now the challenge we face with the Chinese ascendancy and the challenge that present to American dominance of the commercial and military world order. A real challenge we have to recognize and commit to winning.
22 people found this helpful
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Darren
4.0 out of 5 starsIf you are concerned about China, read this.September 20, 2018
Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase
I wrote a big, rambling review, but I decided to keep it much shorter. The author answered many of the questions I had concerning China and it's global expansion (social, economic, military, religious ). I hunted down many of the author's research notes and I agree with the author: China is definitely molding the world to exist under the China umbrella, and they will do anything and everything to ensure it occurs.
18 people found this helpful
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Kindle Customer
5.0 out of 5 starsMuch to learn and unlearnFebruary 3, 2018
Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase
5 star rating for an author who has been there and done that. His insights derived from being a Chinese sympathizer to one who has unmasked their intentions are startling and impossible to refute.
31 people found this helpful
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cas
4.0 out of 5 starsThis is a must read!July 10, 2018
Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase
This book is a real eye opener. It reveals a completely different China. USA needs to wake up and quit assuming China is sold on capitalism. They are no where close to practicing capitalism. Also, they do not accept our ethical standards.
15 people found this helpful
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32 people found this helpful
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DBecker
5.0 out of 5 starsEvery US Citizen Should Read This Book... Period!October 19, 2018
Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase
China is now taking, has always been taking, and plans in the future on taking this country for a ride. And it is about time the US does something about it! When you read this book, you can draw no other conclusion.
The US has a very open, trusting and helping culture, which separates this country from any other in the world and makes me proud to be an American (or at least it used to, but I believe we'll make it back). And China is taking serious advantage of that culture; compounded by the useless, bi-partisan bickering of our politics, both of which are playing right into their hands. Like a magician that distracts our attention from what is really going on. But this is not for entertainment, it is to build China in its Politburo's (not people's no less) interest, at the expense of severely, and potentially irreparably diminishing the United States. I pray to God the country wakes up in time to save ourselves or our children, who already are, will pay en even more tremendous price.
20 people found this helpful
Helpful1 comment Report abuse
H. Pawlowski
5.0 out of 5 starsEnlightening informationAugust 9, 2018
Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase
A picture of the Chinese challenge painted in an easily understood format. I was left with a feeling I understand now the challenge we face with the Chinese ascendancy and the challenge that present to American dominance of the commercial and military world order. A real challenge we have to recognize and commit to winning.
22 people found this helpful
HelpfulComment Report abuse
Darren
4.0 out of 5 starsIf you are concerned about China, read this.September 20, 2018
Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase
I wrote a big, rambling review, but I decided to keep it much shorter. The author answered many of the questions I had concerning China and it's global expansion (social, economic, military, religious ). I hunted down many of the author's research notes and I agree with the author: China is definitely molding the world to exist under the China umbrella, and they will do anything and everything to ensure it occurs.
18 people found this helpful
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Kindle Customer
5.0 out of 5 starsMuch to learn and unlearnFebruary 3, 2018
Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase
5 star rating for an author who has been there and done that. His insights derived from being a Chinese sympathizer to one who has unmasked their intentions are startling and impossible to refute.
31 people found this helpful
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cas
4.0 out of 5 starsThis is a must read!July 10, 2018
Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase
This book is a real eye opener. It reveals a completely different China. USA needs to wake up and quit assuming China is sold on capitalism. They are no where close to practicing capitalism. Also, they do not accept our ethical standards.
15 people found this helpful
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Amazonian
1.0 out of 5 stars
We are not that stupid!February 15, 2019
Either the author is a simpleton or he thinks his readers are simpletons. I strongly suspect it is the latter. To make the author's point, the whole book dwells on the Chinese "Thirty-six Stratagems" which are nothing but 36 concise lessons of statecraft learned from studying the complicated "Warring States" period of Chinese history (roughly 450 - 250 BC) when many states and city-states vied to dominate each other to become the hegemon of the Middle Kingdom.
At the end of that convoluted process worthy of several seasons of "Game of Thrones", the Chin ruler was finally successful in unifying the country to start the Chin Dynasty and proclaim himself the "First Emperor" of China. These lessons of statecraft can then be adapted into a winning strategy by anyone to be used against any adversary or potential adversary, be it in the fields of international politics, regional politics, business or even daily life. Let's face it, these strategies are not that deep, sagacious or inscrutably complicated. They are really just common sense advices to consider when you have to deal with a competent enemy (just read about them for yourself in Wikipedia. I did.) Any national leader or advisors, corporate CEO, or even Mafia boss worth his salt should already be seasoned player of this game without ever having to read the actual "Book of 36 Stratagems" -- it comes intuitively for some people. Just because the Chinese wrote down these strategies (they are obsessive chroniclers) does not mean they have a monopoly in their applications.
Most Chinese can't even name but a handful of the 36 stratagems and few have read the book itself. Most Chinese can readily tell you, though, that of the 36 stratagems, "running away" is the "upper" strategy when everything else fails and the situation is hopeless (in urban kung-fu lingo, it is called "run-fu" and it takes a real kung-fu master to be able to do that, save himself to fight another day).
So the "36 Stratagems" are not some mystical ancient Chinese wisdom but just common sense even if you have just half a brain. If you have watched "Game of Thrones" you should know that westerners are already well-versed with at least that many stratagems, probably many, many more -- and these were dreamed up just by writers of TV fiction, not formulators of national policy.
For the leaders of any nation not to consider every possible strategy at his disposal, including those that may not be deemed "fair" in a schoolyard fight, in order to gain an advantage over his country's adversary would be unconscionable and downright dereliction of duty.
It is also the duty of that leader to wisely expect the same treatments in return from his adversary. It is a chess game, except on a grand scale and much more serious!
I find the author's suggestion that America somehow got duped by a Fu Manchu-like crafty, evil, conniving China for the past 40 years to be simply ludicrous, possibly even racist. It conjures up visions of the xenophobic "Yellow Peril" of yesteryears.
We Americans are not that dumb! We surely did not become the richest and most powerful nation in the world by being naive or stupid. This is a classic case of the pot calling the kettle black while professing self cleanliness.
We are not some naive victim of some devious Chinese treachery. God knows we have plenty of tricks up our sleeves, too. Finally, since we are talking about strategy here and the author was (is?) an advisor of national strategy, could this book itself be a stratagem used to prepare and mold American public opinion, like they did with Sadam Hussein before the Iraq War, so when the time comes, the demonized enemy may be taken out decisively without much public protest?
Judging from so many positive reader reviews I see here, this strategy sure seems to be working!
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The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower by Michael Pillsbury is a re-examination of the US-Chinese relationship over the four decades. Pillsbury earned his BA from Stanford and his PhD from Columbia University. He has been an influence on US policy for several presidential administrations.
"The enemy of my enemy is my friend" is a very old maxim and is generally thought to be true. However, in dealing with China this is probably far from the truth. China once held a position of power and prestige and its current goal is to return to that position. When countries decide to "take their rightful place" in the world it is done with saber rattling and demagoguery. It is usually thought to be someone like Hitler, Quadafi, Hussein, or the Jungs and the combination of emotional pleas and military buildups. China behaves differently.
China through the 19th and 20th century has been victimized by outsiders. The British with the Opium Wars. Europe and America in the time leading to the Boxer Rebellion. Japan in World War II. China plays off these events to strengthen its position while bargaining, particularly with the US. We saw China as an ally against the Soviet Union. China saw the US as someone who would give military technology, relieve them of defending their border with the USSR, and provide naval security in the shipping lanes. China also hoped that the US and USSR would deplete themselves in the Cold War leaving it as the main power.
China is also different in its political thinking. It does not expect rapid change, and it is prepared to wait as long as it takes. The idea of a hundred year marathon is that China will replace the United States by the 100th anniversary of Mao’s rise to power. Slow rise to power eliminates the usual threats to the outside neighbors. In keeping with Sun Tzu’s “If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by.” time is not an enemy to the Chinese.
In graduate school, we learned that a superpower needs three things: Political Power, Economic Power, and Military Power. The United States takes military power seriously. It continues to advance in power and technology. This path costs a fortune as evidenced by the growing national debt. China, however, has a story about the “Assassin’s Mace.” The mace is small and insignificant looking but in the hands of someone who knows how to use it, it is deadly. Rather than build a large blue water navy to project power, China’s power comes from a different source. As impressive as the high-tech military of the United States is, it has a definite weakness. China is set to exploit that weakness. It has already demonstrated its ability to destroy satellites in orbit and is working on technology to spy on spy satellites. Rather than building large expensive weapons, China’s "assassin’s mace" is much cheaper than the weapons it destroys. Anti-ship weapons are cheaper than aircraft carriers. It is cheaper to hack into a computer system than design one. China’s military concentrates on the small cracks in its enemy's impressive armor.
China is a growing economic power, there is little doubt of its manufacturing base and rising living standards. Western nations gained wealth by colonizing and or outright taking of land. China plays a much softer role gaining political and economic power. It supports America’s enemies, even in Afghanistan after 9/11. It allows restricted technology to trickle out to aggressive countries. China knows it needs resources to grow and has turned to Africa for many resources in what seems to be reverse colonization. To secure resources, China invests heavily in African nation’s infrastructure in return for access to strategic materials. The process is building bridges between nations instead of creating conflict.
Inside China things are complex. There are hawks and doves in the government, and it seems the hawks are the doers and the doves are the one’s America hears. America has been very accommodating to China since the Nixon visit from technology to Most Favored Nation Status and viewed China as an end in itself. China sees America merely as a means to an end. Pillsbury gives an insider's look at four decades of misinterpreting China and it goals. We assume all countries live by the western code of Just War and think in the same terms as those in the West. China is different. It is waiting and watching until our own misinterpretations become too great to turn back on. We thought the war over planned and open economies was over with the fall of the Soviet Union, but it is not. China was on the sidelines cheering the US on and watching it weaken with a mocking smile.
(less)
"The enemy of my enemy is my friend" is a very old maxim and is generally thought to be true. However, in dealing with China this is probably far from the truth. China once held a position of power and prestige and its current goal is to return to that position. When countries decide to "take their rightful place" in the world it is done with saber rattling and demagoguery. It is usually thought to be someone like Hitler, Quadafi, Hussein, or the Jungs and the combination of emotional pleas and military buildups. China behaves differently.
China through the 19th and 20th century has been victimized by outsiders. The British with the Opium Wars. Europe and America in the time leading to the Boxer Rebellion. Japan in World War II. China plays off these events to strengthen its position while bargaining, particularly with the US. We saw China as an ally against the Soviet Union. China saw the US as someone who would give military technology, relieve them of defending their border with the USSR, and provide naval security in the shipping lanes. China also hoped that the US and USSR would deplete themselves in the Cold War leaving it as the main power.
China is also different in its political thinking. It does not expect rapid change, and it is prepared to wait as long as it takes. The idea of a hundred year marathon is that China will replace the United States by the 100th anniversary of Mao’s rise to power. Slow rise to power eliminates the usual threats to the outside neighbors. In keeping with Sun Tzu’s “If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by.” time is not an enemy to the Chinese.
In graduate school, we learned that a superpower needs three things: Political Power, Economic Power, and Military Power. The United States takes military power seriously. It continues to advance in power and technology. This path costs a fortune as evidenced by the growing national debt. China, however, has a story about the “Assassin’s Mace.” The mace is small and insignificant looking but in the hands of someone who knows how to use it, it is deadly. Rather than build a large blue water navy to project power, China’s power comes from a different source. As impressive as the high-tech military of the United States is, it has a definite weakness. China is set to exploit that weakness. It has already demonstrated its ability to destroy satellites in orbit and is working on technology to spy on spy satellites. Rather than building large expensive weapons, China’s "assassin’s mace" is much cheaper than the weapons it destroys. Anti-ship weapons are cheaper than aircraft carriers. It is cheaper to hack into a computer system than design one. China’s military concentrates on the small cracks in its enemy's impressive armor.
China is a growing economic power, there is little doubt of its manufacturing base and rising living standards. Western nations gained wealth by colonizing and or outright taking of land. China plays a much softer role gaining political and economic power. It supports America’s enemies, even in Afghanistan after 9/11. It allows restricted technology to trickle out to aggressive countries. China knows it needs resources to grow and has turned to Africa for many resources in what seems to be reverse colonization. To secure resources, China invests heavily in African nation’s infrastructure in return for access to strategic materials. The process is building bridges between nations instead of creating conflict.
Inside China things are complex. There are hawks and doves in the government, and it seems the hawks are the doers and the doves are the one’s America hears. America has been very accommodating to China since the Nixon visit from technology to Most Favored Nation Status and viewed China as an end in itself. China sees America merely as a means to an end. Pillsbury gives an insider's look at four decades of misinterpreting China and it goals. We assume all countries live by the western code of Just War and think in the same terms as those in the West. China is different. It is waiting and watching until our own misinterpretations become too great to turn back on. We thought the war over planned and open economies was over with the fall of the Soviet Union, but it is not. China was on the sidelines cheering the US on and watching it weaken with a mocking smile.
(less)
Feb 09, 2015Josh rated it really liked it
This review is long because the book deserves it. Most of the review will involve disagreement, because agreement is easy to express, while disagreement requires elaboration. But as a whole, this book is interesting and I recommend it without reservation.
Having heard much about this book, I was compelled to read it in one sitting. The obvious strengths of this book are the expertise and credibility of the author, and the truly original material brought to light within the book, some of it declassified specifically for the publication of this book. The author has had a front-row seat to Sino-American diplomacy for forty years, and the stories are exhilarating, as if lifted from a spy novel.
But ultimately, this book is not a memoir, it is meant to be read as a foreign policy prescriptive. As to the main message of the book - that China seeks to displace the US as the world hegemon through a patient accumulation of national power - the author lays out a convincing case that should give any reader pause. However, the book has some weaknesses that prevent it from being as maximally persuasive as it could be.
But first, a step back. This book cannot be evaluated without reference to its self-admitted impetus and foil, On China, by Kissinger. Kissinger's book, like this one, is half-storytelling, half-whitepaper. Kissinger's main strength is in describing Chinese strategic problems from the Chinese perspective, giving their actions rationality, and ultimately, showing something close to sympathy. He regards Mao and Zhou Enlai as peers who play the game well, and gives them professional respect, even admiration. However, one can never shake the feeling that this intelligent man has been less-that-truthful. As someone still very much still in the game, his book seems like a bit of knowing triangulation, with various layers of signalling buried within the book, intended for different audiences. His prescriptions at the end read more like diplomacy than honesty - the book is simply an extension of his day job.
In contrast, Pillsbury has an admirable directness to his book. His cards are on the table, he appears to have no greater ambition that to get the truth out. His policy prescriptions seem heartfelt and written in good faith. His weakness is a certain one-note myopia. Let's recall the state of affairs during Nixon: Vietnam, stagflation, OPEC embargoes. Or how about Reagan: West Germany and Japan in economic ascendancy, a conciliatory Gorbachev. These US-China diplomatic moves happened in the context of greater US strategic goals, and one cannot accurately assess the success of Chinese subterfuge without analyzing this context.
This leads to another point, left unexplored in the book. Pillsbury gives a few examples of Western intelligence choosing to believe a Russian or Chinese false defector over the real one. Pillsbury points out the cause - the false defector tells Americans what they want to hear. But why is this so effective? It is precisely due to this one-note myopia. In the euphoria of the post-Cold War Clinton years, the US was busy counting out the peace dividend and reading Fukuyama's The End of History and the Last Man. Of course China could convince America of the inevitability of Chinese democracy, as the American policy establishment had already done a through job convincing itself. It is this same self-belief that (I believe) led to the various blunders of the present day, from deposing Gaddafi and Mubarak in the name of the Arab Spring, to finally Assad, Maliki, and ISIS. Unlike Kissinger, who can seamlessly slip into Zhou Enlai's shoes and sympathize with his plight, Pillsbury can't see the Chinese view. For a book that claims to understand the secret machinations of the Chinese government, this is a significant problem. He explains the application of ancient Chinese texts to modern Chinese thinking, but he doesn't acknowledge or give any agreement to the fundamental Chinese motivations - worries about the US fomenting rebellion in China, for example. To Pillsbury, it's just paranoia. So close, yet so far.
Pillsbury quotes one Russian joke about the future Politburo being all Chinese. He remarks that he later began to appreciate the truth within it. That reminded me of another Russian joke that has gained some notoriety.
Q: Why are there no revolutions in America?
A: Because there are no American embassies in America.
It seems that Pillsbury wouldn't appreciate this joke, while Kissinger would give a winking chuckle.
Personal Observations:
The greatest impression this book gave me was the maturity and competence of Soviet intelligence. They understood and anticipated the Chinese pivot to the US, and apparently took it in stride, understanding that it was in the natural interests of both the US and China, and simply sought to limit the damage, rather than expend resources in a futile effort to prevent it. I imagine a similar level of competence is at play in the current Ukrainian conflict, and in Russia's handling of both China and Germany.(less)
Having heard much about this book, I was compelled to read it in one sitting. The obvious strengths of this book are the expertise and credibility of the author, and the truly original material brought to light within the book, some of it declassified specifically for the publication of this book. The author has had a front-row seat to Sino-American diplomacy for forty years, and the stories are exhilarating, as if lifted from a spy novel.
But ultimately, this book is not a memoir, it is meant to be read as a foreign policy prescriptive. As to the main message of the book - that China seeks to displace the US as the world hegemon through a patient accumulation of national power - the author lays out a convincing case that should give any reader pause. However, the book has some weaknesses that prevent it from being as maximally persuasive as it could be.
But first, a step back. This book cannot be evaluated without reference to its self-admitted impetus and foil, On China, by Kissinger. Kissinger's book, like this one, is half-storytelling, half-whitepaper. Kissinger's main strength is in describing Chinese strategic problems from the Chinese perspective, giving their actions rationality, and ultimately, showing something close to sympathy. He regards Mao and Zhou Enlai as peers who play the game well, and gives them professional respect, even admiration. However, one can never shake the feeling that this intelligent man has been less-that-truthful. As someone still very much still in the game, his book seems like a bit of knowing triangulation, with various layers of signalling buried within the book, intended for different audiences. His prescriptions at the end read more like diplomacy than honesty - the book is simply an extension of his day job.
In contrast, Pillsbury has an admirable directness to his book. His cards are on the table, he appears to have no greater ambition that to get the truth out. His policy prescriptions seem heartfelt and written in good faith. His weakness is a certain one-note myopia. Let's recall the state of affairs during Nixon: Vietnam, stagflation, OPEC embargoes. Or how about Reagan: West Germany and Japan in economic ascendancy, a conciliatory Gorbachev. These US-China diplomatic moves happened in the context of greater US strategic goals, and one cannot accurately assess the success of Chinese subterfuge without analyzing this context.
This leads to another point, left unexplored in the book. Pillsbury gives a few examples of Western intelligence choosing to believe a Russian or Chinese false defector over the real one. Pillsbury points out the cause - the false defector tells Americans what they want to hear. But why is this so effective? It is precisely due to this one-note myopia. In the euphoria of the post-Cold War Clinton years, the US was busy counting out the peace dividend and reading Fukuyama's The End of History and the Last Man. Of course China could convince America of the inevitability of Chinese democracy, as the American policy establishment had already done a through job convincing itself. It is this same self-belief that (I believe) led to the various blunders of the present day, from deposing Gaddafi and Mubarak in the name of the Arab Spring, to finally Assad, Maliki, and ISIS. Unlike Kissinger, who can seamlessly slip into Zhou Enlai's shoes and sympathize with his plight, Pillsbury can't see the Chinese view. For a book that claims to understand the secret machinations of the Chinese government, this is a significant problem. He explains the application of ancient Chinese texts to modern Chinese thinking, but he doesn't acknowledge or give any agreement to the fundamental Chinese motivations - worries about the US fomenting rebellion in China, for example. To Pillsbury, it's just paranoia. So close, yet so far.
Pillsbury quotes one Russian joke about the future Politburo being all Chinese. He remarks that he later began to appreciate the truth within it. That reminded me of another Russian joke that has gained some notoriety.
Q: Why are there no revolutions in America?
A: Because there are no American embassies in America.
It seems that Pillsbury wouldn't appreciate this joke, while Kissinger would give a winking chuckle.
Personal Observations:
The greatest impression this book gave me was the maturity and competence of Soviet intelligence. They understood and anticipated the Chinese pivot to the US, and apparently took it in stride, understanding that it was in the natural interests of both the US and China, and simply sought to limit the damage, rather than expend resources in a futile effort to prevent it. I imagine a similar level of competence is at play in the current Ukrainian conflict, and in Russia's handling of both China and Germany.(less)
Nov 12, 2016Owlseyes inside Notre Dame, it's so strange a 15-hour blaze and...marked it as to-read
Recommends it for: Hadrian my american friend
Recommended to Owlseyes inside Notre Dame, it's so strange a 15-hour blaze and... by: Mychinesefriend
Tao Xie Professor, at Beijing Foreign Studies University, on the book: "a total conspiracy theory".
Beijing paper cover 'Outsider strikes back'
"We're in year 65". Thence 35 more years to go.
2049: ends marathon.
With Abe's rush-visit to the USA next week, many wonder about Asia; how will Trump handle the "pivot"? Some speak of "unpredictability", some of "isolationism"; others about "the deal-maker" or even the "outsourcing". True, many "unknowns". The Dragon is watching, in the meantime.
[
UPDATES
The 'Pivot' Gets Trumped: The Asia-Pacific Under President Trump
http://thediplomat.com/2016/11/the-pi...
The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-QRV...
China wanted President Trump. It should be careful what it wished for.
in: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...
How US Intelligence Gets China Wrong
Another look at Michael Pillsbury’s The Hundred Year Marathon.
By Yang Hengjun
April 25, 2016
in: http://thediplomat.com/2016/04/how-us...
Of the 28 points-plan of Trump's presidency I call for the attention on the 9th:
-"Direct Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator".
13th Nov 2016
UPDATE
Well, the "candid" Abe/Trump meeting happened a few days ago; one said: "...sends a reassuring signal that despite Trump's rhetoric, things remain more or less on track," .
Yet, the real conundrum still remains : CHINA. I'll be listening and reading and....whatever
22nd November 2016.
UPDATE
A quote from the chinese Global Times, about Monday's conversation between Trump and Xi: "diplomatically impeccable and has bolstered optimism over bilateral relations in the next four years.” "Trump is probably the very American leader who will make strides in reshaping major-power relations in a pragmatic manner.” The paper spoke of "new era".
Ain't that good news?
29th Nov 2016
It seems, some foresee dark clouds after Taiwan's call to Trump. Really??
"Donald Trump Just Complicated US-Taiwan Relations, Big Time"
in: http://thediplomat.com/2016/12/donald...
"So, Why Can't You Call Taiwan?"
in: https://www.theatlantic.com/internati...
3rd December 2016
November 2017: Trump's "warm" visit to China...
2018
This is serious: “Confucius Institutes function as an arm of the Chinese state and are allowed to ignore academic freedom."
in: https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/i...
and: "FBI says Chinese operatives active at scores of U.S. universities"
in: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/natio...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/t...
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/03/mnuch...
(hide spoiler)] (less)
Beijing paper cover 'Outsider strikes back'
"We're in year 65". Thence 35 more years to go.
2049: ends marathon.
With Abe's rush-visit to the USA next week, many wonder about Asia; how will Trump handle the "pivot"? Some speak of "unpredictability", some of "isolationism"; others about "the deal-maker" or even the "outsourcing". True, many "unknowns". The Dragon is watching, in the meantime.
[
UPDATES
The 'Pivot' Gets Trumped: The Asia-Pacific Under President Trump
http://thediplomat.com/2016/11/the-pi...
The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-QRV...
China wanted President Trump. It should be careful what it wished for.
in: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...
How US Intelligence Gets China Wrong
Another look at Michael Pillsbury’s The Hundred Year Marathon.
By Yang Hengjun
April 25, 2016
in: http://thediplomat.com/2016/04/how-us...
Of the 28 points-plan of Trump's presidency I call for the attention on the 9th:
-"Direct Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator".
13th Nov 2016
UPDATE
Well, the "candid" Abe/Trump meeting happened a few days ago; one said: "...sends a reassuring signal that despite Trump's rhetoric, things remain more or less on track," .
Yet, the real conundrum still remains : CHINA. I'll be listening and reading and....whatever
22nd November 2016.
UPDATE
A quote from the chinese Global Times, about Monday's conversation between Trump and Xi: "diplomatically impeccable and has bolstered optimism over bilateral relations in the next four years.” "Trump is probably the very American leader who will make strides in reshaping major-power relations in a pragmatic manner.” The paper spoke of "new era".
Ain't that good news?
29th Nov 2016
It seems, some foresee dark clouds after Taiwan's call to Trump. Really??
"Donald Trump Just Complicated US-Taiwan Relations, Big Time"
in: http://thediplomat.com/2016/12/donald...
"So, Why Can't You Call Taiwan?"
in: https://www.theatlantic.com/internati...
3rd December 2016
November 2017: Trump's "warm" visit to China...
2018
This is serious: “Confucius Institutes function as an arm of the Chinese state and are allowed to ignore academic freedom."
in: https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/i...
and: "FBI says Chinese operatives active at scores of U.S. universities"
in: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/natio...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/t...
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/03/mnuch...
(hide spoiler)] (less)
The book's main flaw is that it is essentially a case of the pot calling the kettle black. It is a paranoid analysis of the current Sino-American situation (or shi) by a China dove turned hawk, who is now alarmed the US is losing its grip on overwhelming geopolitical power. A person who once acted as a spy complaining about subterfuge and deception is rather self-serving.
But the theme of good vs. evil allows the good side to be excused for doing the same thing because its "intention" is good. A fog of self-delusion about its goodness (i.e. moral superiority stemming from amnesia of its past bad deeds along with the Christian messiah complex) is what blinds the US from fully seeing the world as it is. In other words, the US is no different from China, except the US is in a position to do more damage. (less)
May 19, 2019Daniel rated it it was amazing
Pillsbury used to be supportive of China, but later got disillusioned with it. He was welcomed when he was supportive, but denied visa and access when he became critical. According to Pillsbury:
1. China is patient and can plan for 100 years. and it knows how to play Go (wei qi) very well. All the friendly gestures are fake, and the politburo thinks America is the enemy, intent on suppressing its peaceful rise. He posited that all the American leaders had not been able to see though China’s real intention.
2. China had white washed the history of aggression, Tianmen Square massacre, and other human rights abuses against Falungong, Christians, minorities and dissidents. Journalists who do not follow will be blacklisted, so a lot of self-censorship was done. On the other hand, the moment Chinese people travel, they can access all these information anyway.
3. There is a section in the party that controls news that is released locally to control how foreigners see China. This point is very very strange.
4. China builds Confucius Institutes to promote its language and values. Universities receive money and free staff and material, but must toe the party’s line: avoid mentioning Dalai Lama, Taiwan independence and human rights of China. Some of them are alleged to spy for China and even interfere with the politics of the host country. Actually the British (BBC) and America (Voice of America) do the same all the time.
5. China likes to appear weak to bide its time, but when it has the upper hand it will show its true strength. But... what’s the alternative?
6. Pillsbury has been involved in war games in the Pentagon, playing the Chinese side for year 2030. Whereas America wins every single time when wars are fought conventionally, China wins often when wars are fought unconventionally. He thinks now US: China power is 10:1, but by mid century it will be 1:1 and then China will be stronger... China is developing or already has anti-satellite missiles, laser weapons, anti-ship stealth missiles and Shkval supersonic torpedos, electromagnetic pulse weapons and cyberattack capabilities. And all those with a fraction of the American budget.
7. China does business with everyone, including American’s sworn enemies. It supplied weapon and anti-weapon jammers to Saddam Hussein, built telephone infrastructure for the Taliban, and even dares to trade with dictators. Well, America used to supply weapons to Saddam Hussein, and support all sorts of dictators as long as they are pro-American...
8. China is now the biggest exporter of green house gases, and when it becomes stronger more of the smog will be exported. This is unfortunately a often repeated accusation: the fact is that the per capita green house production is far higher in the developed world... Also China had signed the Paris agreement... And Donald Trump had left it.
9. China pollutes and its factories dump toxic wastes into its rivers. All these wastes are going to affect surrounding countries. Actually China is more worried about its pollution problem than it affecting other countries.
10. China joined the World Trade Organisation by supporting American politicians but never followed the rules. It supported national champions just like Japan and Korea, by protecting them from competition, supplying excess liquidity to them, and manipulating its exchange rate to make their output cheap. It steals other countries’ economical secrets.
Pillsbury’s viewpoint seems to have become the dominant viewpoint. Thus Trump’s ongoing trade war and the banning of Huawei in America’s 5G war. It is receiving bipartisan support. It is going to be more and more difficult for China and America to work with each other. All of us are warned. Singapore’s founder Lee Kuan Yew’s prediction of a self-assertive China is coming true; if America is going to prevent its rise, the world will be in turmoil for years to come. (less)
1. China is patient and can plan for 100 years. and it knows how to play Go (wei qi) very well. All the friendly gestures are fake, and the politburo thinks America is the enemy, intent on suppressing its peaceful rise. He posited that all the American leaders had not been able to see though China’s real intention.
2. China had white washed the history of aggression, Tianmen Square massacre, and other human rights abuses against Falungong, Christians, minorities and dissidents. Journalists who do not follow will be blacklisted, so a lot of self-censorship was done. On the other hand, the moment Chinese people travel, they can access all these information anyway.
3. There is a section in the party that controls news that is released locally to control how foreigners see China. This point is very very strange.
4. China builds Confucius Institutes to promote its language and values. Universities receive money and free staff and material, but must toe the party’s line: avoid mentioning Dalai Lama, Taiwan independence and human rights of China. Some of them are alleged to spy for China and even interfere with the politics of the host country. Actually the British (BBC) and America (Voice of America) do the same all the time.
5. China likes to appear weak to bide its time, but when it has the upper hand it will show its true strength. But... what’s the alternative?
6. Pillsbury has been involved in war games in the Pentagon, playing the Chinese side for year 2030. Whereas America wins every single time when wars are fought conventionally, China wins often when wars are fought unconventionally. He thinks now US: China power is 10:1, but by mid century it will be 1:1 and then China will be stronger... China is developing or already has anti-satellite missiles, laser weapons, anti-ship stealth missiles and Shkval supersonic torpedos, electromagnetic pulse weapons and cyberattack capabilities. And all those with a fraction of the American budget.
7. China does business with everyone, including American’s sworn enemies. It supplied weapon and anti-weapon jammers to Saddam Hussein, built telephone infrastructure for the Taliban, and even dares to trade with dictators. Well, America used to supply weapons to Saddam Hussein, and support all sorts of dictators as long as they are pro-American...
8. China is now the biggest exporter of green house gases, and when it becomes stronger more of the smog will be exported. This is unfortunately a often repeated accusation: the fact is that the per capita green house production is far higher in the developed world... Also China had signed the Paris agreement... And Donald Trump had left it.
9. China pollutes and its factories dump toxic wastes into its rivers. All these wastes are going to affect surrounding countries. Actually China is more worried about its pollution problem than it affecting other countries.
10. China joined the World Trade Organisation by supporting American politicians but never followed the rules. It supported national champions just like Japan and Korea, by protecting them from competition, supplying excess liquidity to them, and manipulating its exchange rate to make their output cheap. It steals other countries’ economical secrets.
Pillsbury’s viewpoint seems to have become the dominant viewpoint. Thus Trump’s ongoing trade war and the banning of Huawei in America’s 5G war. It is receiving bipartisan support. It is going to be more and more difficult for China and America to work with each other. All of us are warned. Singapore’s founder Lee Kuan Yew’s prediction of a self-assertive China is coming true; if America is going to prevent its rise, the world will be in turmoil for years to come. (less)
Feb 16, 2018Tom LA added it
Not finished yet but it won’t let me write more than 420 characters in the update box.
So.... I’m confused. The author tries to make the case that “China has been duping us all by pretending to not be interested in global hegemony, while in reality it is and it’s always been”. My question is : so what? It’s not like this is a terrible secret that changes everything.
In fact, given the direction and the unstoppable force of the Chinese economy, China’s upcoming economic hegemony is out there, for all to see. Of course world hegemony is a relative term - do you mean military? Economic? Political influence? For example, the US global hegemony in the last 30 years has not been “absolute” in every corner of the globe at all.
If the book’s point is that China’s internal hawks are stronger than what we think, ok, I’d buy that. But I don’t see this as an incredible revelation as the author seems to suggest. (less)
So.... I’m confused. The author tries to make the case that “China has been duping us all by pretending to not be interested in global hegemony, while in reality it is and it’s always been”. My question is : so what? It’s not like this is a terrible secret that changes everything.
In fact, given the direction and the unstoppable force of the Chinese economy, China’s upcoming economic hegemony is out there, for all to see. Of course world hegemony is a relative term - do you mean military? Economic? Political influence? For example, the US global hegemony in the last 30 years has not been “absolute” in every corner of the globe at all.
If the book’s point is that China’s internal hawks are stronger than what we think, ok, I’d buy that. But I don’t see this as an incredible revelation as the author seems to suggest. (less)
Mar 24, 2019Bill Powers rated it it was amazing
In The Hundred-Year Marathon, Michael Pillsbury has done an excellent job explaining China’s long-term plan to catch-up to and replace the United States as the single global hegemon – from both an economic and military standpoint and how China’s plan involves using the United States to achieve their goals. Pillsbury even admits that as a “US China expert”, he was fooled by China for many years.
Granted it is one man’s point of view, but it is one that should be taken seriously. Hopefully people in leadership roles in our government are taking Pillsbury’s views into consideration before it is too late.
I highly recommend. (less)
Granted it is one man’s point of view, but it is one that should be taken seriously. Hopefully people in leadership roles in our government are taking Pillsbury’s views into consideration before it is too late.
I highly recommend. (less)
Jan 05, 2019Wilson rated it it was amazing
“The best way to win a race is to be the only one that knows there is a race”
This book should give us all pause as to what China is doing across the world and the perception it is laying out to all observers.
Do yourself a favor and read this book. If you have any interest on what’s going to happen in the next 20 years, a big player involves one that is in this book.
This book should give us all pause as to what China is doing across the world and the perception it is laying out to all observers.
Do yourself a favor and read this book. If you have any interest on what’s going to happen in the next 20 years, a big player involves one that is in this book.
Sep 27, 2016Adrian rated it it was amazing · review of another edition
The Hundred Year Marathon is an earth shattering account of how a whole generation of US government officials and China experts have gotten China completely wrong, and how US China policy is grounded in naivety and wishful thinking. Among the main misconceptions Pillsbury highlights in his book are;
China’s Hawks are far more numerous and influential than were previously thought, and even mainstream politicians are not as moderate as they appear
The US fundamentally does not grasp Chinese strategic thinking. China’s strategy is extremely patient, very far sighted, and relies on exploiting externalities and weaknesses, and most of all, relies upon deception
The Sino-Soviet Split was never fully understood, and warnings from the Soviets were not fully heeded
The initial 1971 opening to China by Nixon was largely a Chinese initiative, not an American one as commonly believed
The tone of Pillsbury’s book is not so much that we have been caught unawares, but rather that the signs are there, but many have chosen to ignore them through sheer idealism and wishful thinking. The nature of China’s intent is quite clear, an analogy is a Chinese artist and special effects maestro blowing up a Christmas Tree on the National Mall, China has signalled it’s contempt to the international order and it’s willingness to overturn it, only it is playing the long game because time is on it’s side.
Pillsbury has highlighted how the Chinese are extremely patient, and very well disciplined, and have rigorously followed stratagems from both the Warring States period and are applying it to the present day. The key concepts are Shi, essentially the order of things, the momentum in the world, Wuwei, the exploitation of energy and getting others to do one’s work for you (eg the US depleting the USSR in the Cold War), and Shashoubian, The Assassin’s Mace, essentially aysmetric warfare or weapons that strike at an Achilles Heel.
Pillsbury contends that a China centric world order is not coming around any time soon, essentially not until 2049, and if the GDP of China’s is triple that of the US, then China wins by default, however Pillsbury believes that the future need not be so bleak.
Pillsbury has illustrated a long running narrative of national grievances toward China, wherein China is the victim and it’s rightful place in the world has been denied. Additionally, a completely fictional narrative wherein every President since John Tyler (a forgotten President in the West, but the first to sign a Treaty with China) has sought to contain and undermine China.
As someone who has lived in China for 6 years, and have conversed and interacted with Chinese throughout the country, it can clearly be felt that such narratives and demonizations of the United States are very widespread, and widely believed.
As China has had very little tolerance for any kind of vocal dissent from the party line, this hostility toward free expression is being internationalized, with websites critical of China being attacked, and denying visas to journalists and other critics of China, a sanction the author himself was subject to, but was rescinded in the hopes of changing his views.
Pillsbury contends that we should be less afraid to be critical of China, as accomodation of China’s thin-skinned sensibilities decreases any chance of behavioral change and paves the way for a future wherein we all, or at least those of us who care about free expression, lose.
Pillsbury’s book is eye opening, and as a China resident, I am unable to refute most of what he says about Chinese narratives, propaganda, or strategic thinking. For many, this book is a wake up call, for others such as myself, it confirmed and exacerbated previously held views.
In short, a truly compelling account. (less)
China’s Hawks are far more numerous and influential than were previously thought, and even mainstream politicians are not as moderate as they appear
The US fundamentally does not grasp Chinese strategic thinking. China’s strategy is extremely patient, very far sighted, and relies on exploiting externalities and weaknesses, and most of all, relies upon deception
The Sino-Soviet Split was never fully understood, and warnings from the Soviets were not fully heeded
The initial 1971 opening to China by Nixon was largely a Chinese initiative, not an American one as commonly believed
The tone of Pillsbury’s book is not so much that we have been caught unawares, but rather that the signs are there, but many have chosen to ignore them through sheer idealism and wishful thinking. The nature of China’s intent is quite clear, an analogy is a Chinese artist and special effects maestro blowing up a Christmas Tree on the National Mall, China has signalled it’s contempt to the international order and it’s willingness to overturn it, only it is playing the long game because time is on it’s side.
Pillsbury has highlighted how the Chinese are extremely patient, and very well disciplined, and have rigorously followed stratagems from both the Warring States period and are applying it to the present day. The key concepts are Shi, essentially the order of things, the momentum in the world, Wuwei, the exploitation of energy and getting others to do one’s work for you (eg the US depleting the USSR in the Cold War), and Shashoubian, The Assassin’s Mace, essentially aysmetric warfare or weapons that strike at an Achilles Heel.
Pillsbury contends that a China centric world order is not coming around any time soon, essentially not until 2049, and if the GDP of China’s is triple that of the US, then China wins by default, however Pillsbury believes that the future need not be so bleak.
Pillsbury has illustrated a long running narrative of national grievances toward China, wherein China is the victim and it’s rightful place in the world has been denied. Additionally, a completely fictional narrative wherein every President since John Tyler (a forgotten President in the West, but the first to sign a Treaty with China) has sought to contain and undermine China.
As someone who has lived in China for 6 years, and have conversed and interacted with Chinese throughout the country, it can clearly be felt that such narratives and demonizations of the United States are very widespread, and widely believed.
As China has had very little tolerance for any kind of vocal dissent from the party line, this hostility toward free expression is being internationalized, with websites critical of China being attacked, and denying visas to journalists and other critics of China, a sanction the author himself was subject to, but was rescinded in the hopes of changing his views.
Pillsbury contends that we should be less afraid to be critical of China, as accomodation of China’s thin-skinned sensibilities decreases any chance of behavioral change and paves the way for a future wherein we all, or at least those of us who care about free expression, lose.
Pillsbury’s book is eye opening, and as a China resident, I am unable to refute most of what he says about Chinese narratives, propaganda, or strategic thinking. For many, this book is a wake up call, for others such as myself, it confirmed and exacerbated previously held views.
In short, a truly compelling account. (less)
Jan 07, 2015Michael rated it liked it
I reviewed a pre-publication copy of Michael Pillsbury’s book, The Hundred Year Marathon, subtitled China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower. This book was an eye-opener for me in a number of ways. Let me begin by saying that I am a ‘layman’ interested in China who spent 30 years directly or indirectly working for the technical and analytic sides of the intelligence community—none of them involving China.
He distances himself for so-called China experts who do not have a fluent grasp of spoken and written Mandarin or the history of ancient China. He has a practical background in the language, literature, and history of China. My conclusion is that Michael Pillsbury knows his stuff when it comes to his area of expertise.
I found Dr. Pillsbury’s explanation of the Warring Period of China’s history to explain a lot, which certainly was his intention in this book. Since he found so many direct quotations from or subtle references to the 36 Strategies in modern Chinese military writings, it seems he is on to something when he reveals what he calls a hidden strategy that the senior foreign policy leadership of the U.S. do not know or refuse to accept.
I appreciated his extensive use of untranslated books, articles, monographs, and reports obtained from high-ranking, cooperative Chinese army officers or from Chinese defectors with inside information. These extensively footnoted sources clearly support his claim that China has a long-term strategy of lulling the U.S. into friendly cooperation while secretly pressing toward their goal of defeating the U.S. and becoming the world’s hegemon by the year 2049.
This book is not for the casual reader or for someone with only a passing interest in China since it delves heavily into esoteric and nuanced policy arguments. China “wonks” will read it because it stirs up controversies that analysts will argue abut between now and 2049. For those who are not fluent in Mandarin, who are immersed in U.S. foreign policy with China, or who have ongoing commercial business in the country or with its official representatives, this book is a must-read. If they do not grasp the hidden agenda that guides all Chinese interactions with the U.S., they contribute to the decline of the U.S. and will empower China’s rise to the world stage as the next superpower. (less)
He distances himself for so-called China experts who do not have a fluent grasp of spoken and written Mandarin or the history of ancient China. He has a practical background in the language, literature, and history of China. My conclusion is that Michael Pillsbury knows his stuff when it comes to his area of expertise.
I found Dr. Pillsbury’s explanation of the Warring Period of China’s history to explain a lot, which certainly was his intention in this book. Since he found so many direct quotations from or subtle references to the 36 Strategies in modern Chinese military writings, it seems he is on to something when he reveals what he calls a hidden strategy that the senior foreign policy leadership of the U.S. do not know or refuse to accept.
I appreciated his extensive use of untranslated books, articles, monographs, and reports obtained from high-ranking, cooperative Chinese army officers or from Chinese defectors with inside information. These extensively footnoted sources clearly support his claim that China has a long-term strategy of lulling the U.S. into friendly cooperation while secretly pressing toward their goal of defeating the U.S. and becoming the world’s hegemon by the year 2049.
This book is not for the casual reader or for someone with only a passing interest in China since it delves heavily into esoteric and nuanced policy arguments. China “wonks” will read it because it stirs up controversies that analysts will argue abut between now and 2049. For those who are not fluent in Mandarin, who are immersed in U.S. foreign policy with China, or who have ongoing commercial business in the country or with its official representatives, this book is a must-read. If they do not grasp the hidden agenda that guides all Chinese interactions with the U.S., they contribute to the decline of the U.S. and will empower China’s rise to the world stage as the next superpower. (less)
Feb 12, 2015Julie Clark rated it it was amazing
The Hundred Year Marathon is a book that will make you rethink everything you thought you knew about the relationship between China and the US. Even if you don’t think this is something that will affect you, I can promise you this book will change your mind.
The insights Michael Pillsbury provides on China- US relations will give you chills. The information is well sourced, presented in a way that shows the bold truth on this subject matter. It’s broken down in easy to understand terms, making it a good read for anyone who wants to learn more on the subject.
While there may be other books about Chinese and US relations, I don’t believe that any can compete with Pillsbury’s knowledge and decades of experience. His background and particularly his position as Special Assistant for Asian Affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense gave him an awareness that most of us just aren’t privy to.
Interested in delving further into this subject, I had a look at some of the source files provided on http://100yearmarathon.com/
The evidence is right there in the articles, and I found it to be an interesting follow up. If you have any skepticism, you can also find the Author’s credentials there too. I admit I checked out the website before deciding to buy, and I couldn’t be happier that I did. I think this a book every American should read. (less)
The insights Michael Pillsbury provides on China- US relations will give you chills. The information is well sourced, presented in a way that shows the bold truth on this subject matter. It’s broken down in easy to understand terms, making it a good read for anyone who wants to learn more on the subject.
While there may be other books about Chinese and US relations, I don’t believe that any can compete with Pillsbury’s knowledge and decades of experience. His background and particularly his position as Special Assistant for Asian Affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense gave him an awareness that most of us just aren’t privy to.
Interested in delving further into this subject, I had a look at some of the source files provided on http://100yearmarathon.com/
The evidence is right there in the articles, and I found it to be an interesting follow up. If you have any skepticism, you can also find the Author’s credentials there too. I admit I checked out the website before deciding to buy, and I couldn’t be happier that I did. I think this a book every American should read. (less)
Nov 05, 2017Lauren rated it liked it
While setting timelines and predictions is always a difficult business, since China has already done us the favor of setting its two centenary goals, Pillsbury's book -- despite the rhetorical blunder -- offers an American perspective on Chinese efforts to reach both goals. It also offers an inside look at how one of Trump's "people" thinks about China policy. Hawkish and full of China threat theory in its finest form, but worth pressing on, if one can get beyond the memoir style rife with self-importance. (less)
Listened to about 2 hours of this. There are two key problems with the book.
The first is that it seems like almost all of the content depends on just one source, the author. There are a bunch of red flags in the text that point to this, like the conspiratorial language that's used, the author's insistence that other China experts don't understand Chinese nearly as well as he does (and so should be ignored), or claims that others have been successfully 'duped' by China's public statements but that Pillsbury has spoken to former USSR operatives and knows what's really going on. Having a single source doesn't always mean a book is problematic; philosophical or autobiographical texts tend to have this same attribute and can work fine. But when you make a bunch of claims about a nation of over a billion people based on only personal experience and a claimed better understanding of Mandarin, I think it's fair to cry foul.
The second deals with the thesis of the book. Throughout the beginning chapters, Pillsbury keeps talking about how China wants to overtake the US, how they're not OK playing second-fiddle, how China has tried to deceive the US into thinking they don't have world leader ambitions, etc. The language and tone in which the author presents these ideas is meant to evoke fear, concern, and surprise on the side of the reader. But this is totally unsurprising to me: wouldn't it make sense that China intends to be #1, especially when it has the greatest population? Becoming the world's leading power is a very reasonable long-term goal for any nation-state. Pillsbury's presentation is akin a basketball coach telling his players things like "the other team wants to beat us!" and "you don't get it, they want to be the champions, they're not OK taking second place!" I think most people would be confused that the coach would think players need to be reminded of this key attribute of any competition.
Not recommended. (less)
The first is that it seems like almost all of the content depends on just one source, the author. There are a bunch of red flags in the text that point to this, like the conspiratorial language that's used, the author's insistence that other China experts don't understand Chinese nearly as well as he does (and so should be ignored), or claims that others have been successfully 'duped' by China's public statements but that Pillsbury has spoken to former USSR operatives and knows what's really going on. Having a single source doesn't always mean a book is problematic; philosophical or autobiographical texts tend to have this same attribute and can work fine. But when you make a bunch of claims about a nation of over a billion people based on only personal experience and a claimed better understanding of Mandarin, I think it's fair to cry foul.
The second deals with the thesis of the book. Throughout the beginning chapters, Pillsbury keeps talking about how China wants to overtake the US, how they're not OK playing second-fiddle, how China has tried to deceive the US into thinking they don't have world leader ambitions, etc. The language and tone in which the author presents these ideas is meant to evoke fear, concern, and surprise on the side of the reader. But this is totally unsurprising to me: wouldn't it make sense that China intends to be #1, especially when it has the greatest population? Becoming the world's leading power is a very reasonable long-term goal for any nation-state. Pillsbury's presentation is akin a basketball coach telling his players things like "the other team wants to beat us!" and "you don't get it, they want to be the champions, they're not OK taking second place!" I think most people would be confused that the coach would think players need to be reminded of this key attribute of any competition.
Not recommended. (less)
Jul 08, 2018Will Clausen rated it really liked it
Good book from a seemingly highly credible author. Didn't know anything about China before, still feel mostly in the dark. The core thesis is exactly what's in the title. I'm not sure whether Pillsbury's idea falls more in the camp of conspiracy theories or is something Americans should be legitimately concerned about. On the one hand, it's been nice for me to think of China as a peaceful ally of the United States, whose interests fundamentally align with those of the US and Western Civilization. But it is also true that I can't square that idea with many of China's actions around censorship and cyber attacks. I'm ultimately left wary of the supposed sincerity of Chinese claims about becoming a peaceful ally and peer of the United States, and especially wary that the Chinese will change their actions to align with fundamental values of the West regarding free speech, free markets, and generally supporting individual rights.
Overall, worthwhile read about something I knew nothing about before. Hard to fully get behind the ideas because it's all about supposed secrets from another country, though. But thoughtful discussion about potential implications and things we can do to preserve American values in the coming decades. (less)
Overall, worthwhile read about something I knew nothing about before. Hard to fully get behind the ideas because it's all about supposed secrets from another country, though. But thoughtful discussion about potential implications and things we can do to preserve American values in the coming decades. (less)
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