[SPECIAL EDITION] Prof. John Mearsheimer : FIRST STRIKE BY ISRAEL - Ca...

[SPECIAL EDITION] Prof. John Mearsheimer : FIRST STRIKE BY ISRAEL - Can Iran Defeat Israel?

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Prof. John Mearsheimer  :  Can Iran Defeat Israel? (part two)

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heat heat

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hi everyone Judge Andrew Npalitano here

for Judging Freedom today is Friday June

13 2025

professor John Mirshimer joins us now

professor Mirshimer it's a pleasure we

originally scheduled this to continue

uh our session from the other day when

we had internet problems but of course

since then the world in the Middle East

uh has changed what's your uh initial

analysis

uh of the Israeli attack on Iran

i think it's clearly a massive attack i

mean they're attacking in waves uh

they're attacking all over the country

uh and they've made it clear that this

is just the beginning uh so this is a

major conflict and the Israelis are well

aware that the Iranians are going to

retaliate we don't know exactly what

that retaliation looks like so you're

basically going to have a situation

where we go up the escalation ladder and

then the question becomes what does it

look like at the end when this is

finally concluded do we do do we know uh

if uh the Iranian offensive

Chris is back in his element here uh do

we know Chris the dog not not producer

Chris do we know if u the Iranian

offensive weaponry has been uh impacted

by this attack well I think there's no

question that some of it has the

question is how much uh the Iranians

have a lot of that uh a lot of those

missiles cruise missiles and ballistic

missiles hidden underground and

furthermore they're just limits to how

many of the missiles can be attacked by

the Israelis because they can only put

so many aircraft over the target uh but

at the same time uh I think it's quite

clear that the Iranians got caught with

their pants down this was a surprise

attack scott Ritter on the show earlier

today talked about this being Iran's

Pearl Harbor i think that is an apt

analogy here so I think it is clear the

Israelis did get uh more than a few

ballistic and cruise missiles but how

many remains to be seen

i just had to get up and close the door

to try and insulate us from Chris's um

expressing his opinion on all these

things there doesn't seem to be any

question about United States involvement

after reading what the president said

i'm not so sure it was wise what he said

but I'd like to read it out loud since

it's a truth social poster chris if you

want to put it up please this is the

president of the United States uh about

uh 6:15 this morning Eastern time i gave

Iran chance after chance to make a deal

i told them in the strongest of words to

just do it but no matter how hard they

tried no matter how close they got they

just couldn't get it done i told them it

would be much worse than anything they

know anticipated or were told that the

United States makes the best and most

lethal military equipment anywhere in

the world by far in caps and that Israel

has a lot of it with much more to come

and they know how to use it certain

Iranian hardliners spoke bravely but

they didn't know what was about to

happen they are all dead in caps now and

it will only get worse there has already

been great death and destruction but

there is still time to make this

slaughter with the next already planned

attacks being even far more brutal come

to an end iran must make a deal before

there is nothing left and save what was

once known as the Iranian Empire no more

death no more destruction just do it

before it's too late god bless you all

the anti-war

president saying if you don't negotiate

the way we want you to we'll kill you

either directly or through our proxy

Benjamin Netanyahu was that the way you

read that yeah there's no question about

it uh just a couple other points uh the

Times of Israel has a big story that's

easily accessible on the internet that

makes it clear that uh Trump colluded

with Netanyahu to basically bamboozle

the Iranians and make it look like there

was not going to be an attack at least

until the negotiations were finished uh

and in fact Trump knew the attack was

coming as of Monday and he pretended

that he didn't know and that in fact he

was working overtime to make the

diplomatic route work uh so he uh uh

he's in collusion with the Israelis on

this one so Professor uh Saxs your

colleague and Scott Ritter say that

Trump's behavior in this as you've just

outlined it uh renders anybody who's

negotiating with the United States

absolutely suspect about whether or not

to believe Donald Trump or anything the

United States says you agree with that i

agreed with that before these attacks

took place uh I think any country on the

planet to trust the United States is

remarkably foolish that includes our

close allies uh as well as our

adversaries right i'm sure that Vladimir

Putin doesn't trust Donald Trump as far

as he can throw him and he can't throw

him any distance because he can't get

his hands on him yeah um I wonder if

Donald Trump um shared with Marco Rubio

the dejour not de facto the dejour

secretary of state uh the American

involvement or if Mr rubio has a problem

with the truth here's what he said

tonight this is last night tonight

Israel took unilateral action against

Iran we are not involved in strikes

against Iran and our top priority is

protecting American forces in the region

israel advised us that they believe this

action was necessary for its

self-defense president Trump and the

administration have taken all necessary

steps to protect our forces and remain

in close contact with our regional

partners let me be clear Iran should not

target US interests or personnel there's

not a word of truth in the first two

sentences there is there

no he was just trying to provide cover

early on but that cover's been blown by

today let me make a general point about

what I think is going on here please do

i I think Trump has fallen into a trap

that the Israelis set what I mean by

that is I think Israel's ultimate goal

here is to make sure Iran does not get

nuclear weapons but they don't have the

capability to do that by themselves uh

so what the uh what the Israelis are

doing here with this attack is number

one they're putting an end to the

negotiations there's not going to be any

more negotiations that's meaningless at

this point but furthermore they're

drawing us into the fight uh the

Iranians are going to retaliate and we

have said that we will help defend the

Israelis furthermore this war is going

to escalate and we are going to get

drawn in trump has already made it clear

that he is standing with the Israelis

and what Trump has wanted to do was

avoid a war and he wanted to settle this

one diplomatically well there's no

diplomatic solution possible now and he

is in the war with the Iranians

the allurement to American presidents of

the opportunity to kill

people in foreign countries must be

utterly irresistible this so-called

anti-war pro peace president we're going

to play a clip in just a minute of his

uh at the time his surrogates now

members of his cabinet praising him for

being anti-war is funding the war in

Gaza even more so than Joe Biden

continues to fund an utterly losing

effort in Ukraine and now the neocons

are triumphant and the Zionists are

triumphant by dragging us into

eventually a war against Iran which has

posed zero zero threat to American

national security so much for the

anti-war president it's hard to disagree

with that i mean the only thing I

disagree with that you said is I don't

call it a war in Gaza i call it a

genocide it is and I'm I'm entirely with

you and I stand corrected chris play the

clip of uh Tulsi Gabbard and Bobby

Kennedy a vote for Donald Trump is a

vote for a man who wants to end wars not

start them

he said "I want to end the wars

and who has demonstrated already that he

has the courage and strength to stand up

and fight for peace i want to end this

surveillance and censorship

did we choose censorship or freedom

i want to protect the Constitution

i want to protect freedom of speech

history will look back on us at this

moment for the choice that we make did

we choose war or peace

every one of those statements which were

made at the Republican National uh

convention last summer has been defied

poignantly by Donald Trump from freedom

of speech ask some Muslims on the

Columbia University uh campus uh to

these uh perpetual wars

i don't disagree i don't know what else

to say yeah i mean I I did not think

Trump would turn out to be a wararmonger

but uh he has i mean what else can you

say here here he is himself

in his inaugural address January 20th we

will measure our success not only by the

battles we win but also by the wars that

we end and perhaps most importantly the

wars we never get into

[Applause]

do you think that the true purpose of

this uh attack

from the perspective of the Israelis and

maybe from the perspective of the United

States all right I'm complicating the

question but nothing's too complex for

John Mirshimer do you think that the

true purpose of this attack was to

degrade the uran the um Iranian

uh ability to enrich uranium or to bring

about regime change in Iran well I do

not think the Israelis have the

capability to uh eliminate the nuclear

enrichment capability that the Iranians

have uh certainly at the Ford uh

installation uh but e even I think at

Natans it's just not in the cards uh I

think it's only the Americans who might

and I want to underline the word might

be able to do that but I think as I said

before the attack is mainly designed to

get the Americans in the fight to end

the negotiations

uh so that we can make sure that Iran uh

does not acquire nuclear weapons in

other in other words we the United

States the other alternative route to

this end is regime change which is the

Israelis go in they uh bash Iran and the

end result is that the Ayatollas are

overthrown you get a liberal democracy

and that liberal democracy or those new

leaders uh show no interest in acquiring

nuclear weapons uh I think that's a pipe

dream i tend to believe the Israelis

understand that's a pipe dream i mean

first of all you want to look at all the

states around the world that have

nuclear weapons a good number of them

are liberal democracies the United

States and Britain and India have

nuclear weapons france has nuclear

weapons these are liberal democracies

moreover if you're the Iranians what's

the message that you take from what's

happened here whether you're a liberal

Democrat or you're an Ayatollah the

lesson is that you should have gotten

nuclear weapons a long time ago and now

you definitely have to get them in the

future because if you had nuclear

weapons this wouldn't hap wouldn't have

happened look at North Korea north Korea

got nuclear weapons kim Jong-un uh is

thriving in North Korea colonel Gaddafi

got rid of his weapons of mass

destruction program he's now three feet

under uh and look at what's happening to

the Iranians so the message is clear

here and I think that tells you that

regime change is not going to do the

trick so what the Israelis want is they

want us to do the dirty work it's very

important to understand that the

Israelis have reached the point where

they are remarkably dependent on us yeah

if you look at the weaponry that was

used against the Iranians and I think

this includes intelligence too if you

look at the weaponry that's used in the

genocide it's the Americans who provide

that weaponry and the Israelis are

depending on us to help defend them when

the Iranians uh retaliate so they are

deeply dependent on us and it's

therefore hardly unsurprising that

they're looking to us uh to solve their

problem i don't want to give you

heartburn but probably the most

pro-Israeli

pro-war

never met a war he didn't want somebody

else to fight member of the United

States Senate from South Carolina

thinks this is a game there it is on his

own account game on pray for Israel

i I don't even know how to analyze the

human mind that would uh that would say

something like that by calling it game

on this is a massive uh unprovoked

illegal

uh war crime uh attack on a sovereign

nation which the United States duped

into a false sense of security by

pretending to negotiate it with it i

think we are as culpable as the Israelis

are but that culpability is not going to

be uh redressed on the battlefield

well the fact that somebody like Lindsey

Graham gets such a prominent platform

inside of the United States tells you

how much trouble we're in right but just

to take it a step further it is

important to understand that he's just

one of many senators and congressmen who

are backing Israel to the hilt and will

back Israel to the hilt no matter what

it does he just happens to be more

viferous and more foolish in his public

performances than the others uh but he's

just one of many and as I've said many

times it just goes uh to show you the

extent to which Israel in the lobby here

in the United States basically owns

Congress right right um

do we know the nature

caused the BBC described it as

unprecedented damage on Iran's elite i I

think they're referring to the attacks

in a suburban neighborhood where many of

the uh generals

uh and um Revolutionary Guard uh senior

officials resided and they're dead

i I believe that when all is said and

done the most successful part of the

Israeli attack will be the decapitation

i mean they actually were able to kill a

significant number of Iranian leaders uh

mainly generals and they were also able

to kill a handful of nuclear scientists

but the question you have to ask

yourself is whether this decapitation

strategy will work and the fact is that

there are people uh in the second

echelon the third echelon who will be

moved up to replace those individuals

and I'm sure that in some cases the

second and third echelon people who are

moved up will be more competent than the

people they replace in some cases they

won't but the idea that this is a

paralyzing attack that will make it

impossible for for Iran to wage uh a

protracted war against uh Israel is in

my opinion wrong i think the

decapitation strategy worked in the

sense that lots of people in Iran at the

top were killed but beyond that I don't

think it's going to have much effect on

the war and we don't know of Iran's

capability to respond or to retaliate in

a massive way because we don't know how

much damage the Israeli uh assault

caused no I think that's wrong i think

they still have the capability to

respond in a massive way i don't think

that the Israelis destroyed so much of

their missile inventory that the

Iranians can't pound Israel and pound

American bases in the Middle East and uh

oil installations in the Gulf they can

do that uh I think there was some damage

done for sure how much we can't tell but

I don't think massive damage was done

and by the way you know one thing we

haven't talked about and few people are

talking about is what happens if this

war goes on uh and the Israelis hit uh

oil installations in side of Iran and

the Iranians retaliate by hitting oil

installations in the Middle East more

generally shut down the flow of oil out

of the Persian Gulf this will have

catastrophed

thank you Donald Trump

yeah well you want to say thank you

Israel uh right well Israel would be

nothing without him i Is it fair to say

the neocons are now triumphant i mean

what became of the realists what became

of the American first is the the vice

president Vance group that was on that

telegram or signal call whatever it was

uh that supposedly was arguing for

restraint they certainly didn't prevail

here

well

there's no question they're triumphant

at the moment but you want to remember

how triumphant everybody was when we

went into Iraq uh you know the first day

first week it it looks terrific but then

once the cold doucheer reality hits uh

it doesn't look so good and I don't

think you can tell a good story about

how Israel ends up with a happy ending

here uh I think that this one will not

work out over the long term so all the

triumphalism that you see today I

believe will melt away like snow on a

Mayday uh but just a quick point on what

happened to the restrainers

uh what happened to the realist so to

speak the fact is when it comes to

foreign policy in the Middle East Israel

owns us and the restrainers in the end

don't matter because Israel can do

pretty much anything it wants this is a

truly remarkable situation that most

Americans can't understand it's just

unfathomable that a small country with a

couple million people is able to get the

United States to do its bidding uh to

get unconditional support from the

United States but that's where we're at

israel can do almost anything i mean to

put a positive spin on what Trump has

done he's in a straight jacket he just

doesn't have any choice there's no way

he can really contest the Israelis

because the lobby is so powerful that if

he contested the Israelis in a

meaningful way over Gaza or over Iran

they crucify the guy here's uh Colonel

McGregor a few minutes ago june turned

out to be Iran's Pearl Harbor iran will

now react as we did in 1942

when we were caught napping what was

limited to the region between Israel and

Iran will now become regional trump's

statements after the fact are an

admission of his own level of complicity

hard to disagree with that i said before

with regard to Scott's comments uh

earlier this morning I thought the use

of the term Pearl Harbor was appropriate

here and furthermore as I said if you

look at the scale of these attacks

against Iran it's really quite extensive

uh these attacks are quite extensive and

they're supposed to go on for you know

days if not weeks and I think the end

result is you're going to get a major

war here it's you know people who are

talking about let's uh put a damper on

this let's put an end to this i mean I

think this is delusional the Iranians

simply have to respond and they have to

respond in a massive way uh and the

Israelis will retaliate and then we're

off to the races and we have 90,000

American troops according to Ritter the

vast majority of them are support

personnel not frontline uh infantry who

are almost in a semicircle uh in that

area what happens when some of them get

killed

well that will give us an incentive to

get deeply involved in the war this is

what I was saying to you before the

Israelis have a vested interest in

sucking us into the war right uh

what what they want to do is get

Americans killed because if Americans

get killed that guarantees that we come

in so the Do you think Donald Trump

understands that that his buddy BB

Netanyahu wants Americans to get killed

i I don't know exactly what he

understands uh he obviously has

acknowledged that he's thrown uh he he's

thrown his lot in with the Israelis i

mean he he's with them now right we're

joined at the hip and we're going to get

pulled in you know this reminds me a lot

of the Cuban missile crisis excuse me of

u the Bay of Pigs operation that

President Kennedy was involved in uh in

April of 1961 shortly after he became

president the Bay of Pigs operation if

you look at it was doomed from the start

there was no way it would work and when

you read about it you wonder what was

the CIA thinking when they pushed JFK to

launch the boats and to uh invade in the

Bay of Pigs well what was going on here

is the CIA understood that we would be

defeated in the Bay of Pigs operation

but their belief is that Kennedy would

then have no choice but to double down

get deeply involved in Cuba and then wh

that was the way we would overthrow the

Castro regime right so in other words

the CIA understood the initial attack

would not achieve its goal but the idea

was that you suck President Kennedy in

commitment to topple the regime in Cuba

and in this case I don't believe the

Israelis think that they can eliminate

uh Iran's nuclear capability with these

attacks it just can't be done and they

understand full well I'm sure that

they're going to enrage the Iranians and

the Iranians are going to attack Israel

but this is all good news because the

name of the game is to suck the

Americans in just as they wanted to JFK

in with the Bay of Pigs operation and

Trump has played right into the Israelis

hands and here we go and after the Bay

of Pigs JFK was so furious at the CIA he

said "I'd like to smash them into a

thousand pieces."

And then came November 22nd 1963

well there's no question that he wanted

to get rid of uh uh the head of the CIA

Allan Dulles and he did that very

quickly and he was thinking about

reforming the CIA because he understood

that it was a rogue actor uh but with

regard to the Israelis right Israel is a

rogue state and it has it ti has us tied

around its finger and it can go off and

do all sorts of things and it knows that

it can depend on us to bail them out

last question Professor Mir Shmer do you

see any uh military action coming from

any other country in the region notably

Egypt or Turkey

no I think everybody's going to keep

their heads down the last thing they

want to do is get involved in this fight

there's nobody that has the capability

to take on the Israelis or the Americans

and uh I think that uh all around the

region people regret that this attack

has taken place they see no good coming

from it quite correctly I would add uh

but they're not going to get involved in

the fight okay Professor Mayor Shimemer

thank you very much i know this isn't

your usual day or time and I know this

is your second time on with us and and

you uh you rose to our call when we

learned of these events before the sun

came up this morning thank you very much

for joining us hope you have a good

weekend and we'll look forward to seeing

you at your usual time and place next

week my pleasure Judge have a good

weekend yourself thank you thank you

very much coming up at 4:00 today the

end of the day the end of the week but

not the last judging freedom of the week

uh the intelligence community roundt

with Ray McGovern and Larry Johnson 4:00

at 4:30 colonel Lawrence McGregor on

excuse me I conflated them colonel

Lawrence Wilkerson on all of this judge

Npalitano for judging freedom

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이스라엘의 이란 공격 뭐샤이머 분석 --- 위의 비데오 내용을 요약 분석해주세요

ChatGPT의 말:

아주 잘 준비해 주셨습니다. 이제 이 자료를 바탕으로 John Mearsheimer의 이스라엘의 이란 공격에 대한 분석을 요약·정리해 드리겠습니다.

---

John Mearsheimer: 이스라엘의 이란 공격 분석 요약 (2025년 6월 13일 인터뷰 기준)

1️⃣ 공격의 성격과 규모

• 이스라엘의 공격은 대규모, 다발적, 전국적 공격임.

• 이란은 사실상 기습당했으며, 일부에서는 이를 "이란의 진주만(펄하버)"에 비유 (Scott Ritter, McGregor 등).

• 이스라엘은 핵심 인프라와 군사시설, 지휘부, 핵과학자 등을 겨냥한 **‘참수(decapitation) 작전’**을 시도.

• 그러나 이란의 핵심 미사일 전력 상당수는 지하에 은닉되어 있어 결정적 타격을 입히지는 못함.

2️⃣ 미국의 역할과 트럼프의 개입

• 미국은 이 공격에 사실상 연루됨. 트럼프 대통령은 이스라엘과 사전 협의한 정황이 있고, 이를 숨기며 외교 협상을 지속하는 척함.

• 트럼프의 SNS 발언은 거의 공개적인 협박 수준으로, "이란은 전멸당할 수 있다"는 식의 발언.

• Marco Rubio 등의 정치인은 "미국은 공격에 개입하지 않았다"고 했으나, 이는 사실과 다름.

3️⃣ 이스라엘의 전략적 목표

• 이스라엘은 스스로 이란 핵 프로그램을 제거할 능력이 부족.

• 따라서:

  1. 미국을 전쟁에 끌어들이기 (proxy entrapment)

  2. 외교 협상 중단 (이란이 미국과 협상할 유인을 없앰)

  3. 궁극적으로 미국이 이란 핵시설을 제거하도록 유도.

• 이스라엘은 미국의 군사적·외교적 지원에 극도로 의존하는 상태.

4️⃣ 레짐 체인지(정권 교체) 가능성

• 일부 네오콘과 이스라엘 내부에서는 이란 정권 교체까지 희망할 수 있으나, Mearsheimer는 이를 **"망상(pipedream)"**으로 평가.

• 핵 보유국 중 상당수가 자유민주국이라는 점에서, 정권이 교체되어도 이란이 핵을 포기할 가능성은 낮다고 봄.

5️⃣ 이란의 향후 대응과 전쟁 확산 가능성

• 이란은 상당한 미사일 전력을 보유한 채 여전히 대규모 보복 능력을 유지.

• 이란이 중동 전역의 유전과 해상수송로를 공격할 경우 세계 에너지 시장 대혼란 우려.

• Mearsheimer는 장기적으로 이 전쟁이 이스라엘에도 해피 엔딩으로 끝나지 않을 것으로 전망.

6️⃣ 미국 내 이스라엘 로비의 영향력

• 이스라엘 로비가 미국 의회와 정계에 막대한 영향력을 행사.

• 트럼프조차 이스라엘의 요구에 실질적으로 저항할 수 없는 구조.

• Mearsheimer는 이스라엘의 미국에 대한 영향력을 "거의 믿기 어려운 수준"이라고 표현.

7️⃣ 역사적 유사성: 피그스 만 사건 비교

• 이스라엘의 이번 전략을 케네디 시절 피그스 만 침공(Bay of Pigs) 시나리오와 비교:

  • CIA는 초반 실패를 예상했지만, 미국이 결국 본격 개입할 수밖에 없을 것으로 기대.

  • 이스라엘도 유사하게 미국이 전쟁에 본격 개입하도록 유도하는 전략.

8️⃣ 지역 국가들의 반응

• 이집트, 터키 등 주변 국가는 관망 중.

• 이스라엘/미국과 충돌할 역량이 없고, 이번 사태에 개입할 의사도 없음.

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🔎 핵심 결론 요약

• 이스라엘은 자력으로 이란 핵을 제거할 능력이 없기에 미국을 끌어들이려 함.

• 미국(특히 트럼프)은 이스라엘 전략에 말려들어 전쟁에 휘말릴 위험.

• 이란은 여전히 보복능력을 유지하고 있으며, 전쟁은 장기화·확산될 가능성.

• 중동 에너지 시장과 글로벌 경제에 심각한 파장 우려.

• 미국 내 이스라엘 로비의 힘은 여전히 절대적.