OPINION
Biden’s North Korea policy has failed. It’s time for something different.
Trump has been willing to ditch Beltway fantasy of complete denuclearization and should pursue arms control if reelected
Benjamin R. Young July 19, 2024
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U.S. President Joe Biden delivering remarks to the nation after the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump | Image: The White House (July 14, 2024)
Editor’s note: The following article is an opinion piece by Benjamin R. Young, a researcher and analyst of North Korea and U.S.-East Asia relations. Views expressed in opinion articles are exclusively the author’s own and do not represent those of NK News.
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Jung Pak, the top U.S. official for North Korea policy, resigned last week, leaving the Biden administration without crucial high-level leadership amid escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula and a strengthened military partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang.
This resignation and the deprioritization of the North Korea issue highlight the Biden administration’s ongoing failures in handling this unpredictable regime.
It is becoming increasingly evident that a radically different approach is needed — one that could benefit from the bold and unconventional tactics of former President Donald Trump.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump during a campaign rally in New Hampshire | Image: Liam Enea via Flickr (Jan. 21, 2024) (CC BY-SA 2.0)POWER FOR POWER
With a second Trump administration becoming a distinct possibility, it is crucial to revisit the successes of Trump’s first term concerning North Korea policy.
In 2017, Trump adopted an aggressive stance toward Pyongyang with his “fire and fury” remarks. Although some pundits and observers criticized this approach as excessive, risking nuclear war, it undeniably unsettled Kim Jong Un and his apparatchiks — despite their own hyper-militant rhetoric and threats to destroy Seoul.
The North Koreans were not used to a U.S. strongman leader. Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy, which included enhanced sanctions, ultimately brought Pyongyang to the negotiating table, leading to two historic summits between Kim and Trump. Moreover, North Korea stopped its nuclear and missile testing once Trump’s pressure campaign reached its apex.
The Biden administration continues to reiterate its willingness to engage in dialogue with North Korea at any time and place. But there appears to be little incentive for Pyongyang to respond as it recognizes Biden’s commitment to the “complete denuclearization” of the DPRK as a non-starter.
For the North Koreans, their nuclear arsenal is not only a matter of national security but a point of national pride and sovereignty. In 2023, nuclear power was officially enshrined into the DPRK’s constitution as the “basic law of the state.” Simply put, Pyongyang will never give up its nuclear arsenal.
The Obama administration and now the Biden administration’s passive approach to North Korea has failed. Under Biden’s tenure, DPRK munitions have been used in Ukraine, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has visited Pyongyang. Without at least partial cooperation from Russia and China, the international sanctions regime against North Korea is largely ineffective. The current situation cannot be resolved through “strategic patience” and legal maneuvering.
Dictators like Kim Jong Un respect demonstrations of strength. The apparent physical and mental decline of President Biden is particularly attractive to these personalist dictatorships, who often equate a leader’s physical weakness with national weakness.
In 2022, North Korean state media referred to Biden as “an old man in his senility,” and in 2023, Kim Jong Un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, called the U.S. president “senile” and “’too miscalculating and irresponsibly brave.”
It is clear that both the U.S. public and our adversaries perceive Biden as unfit for the demands of his office. With the support of his newfound ally, Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un would likely become even more confrontational and aggressive toward a weakened Biden in a second term.
Kim Jong Un leading a meeting during an inspection of the Sinpho City Offshore Farm | Image: KCNA (July 16, 2024)SHAKING THINGS UP
An unconventional approach to North Korea is needed yet again.
Trump was willing to change decades-old stances and policies toward Pyongyang. While he stuck to the Beltway’s long-standing doctrine in calling for complete denuclearization, he also recognized that this demand was unrealistic for Pyongyang.
In Hanoi, he appeared close to accepting Kim’s offer to dismantle the Yongbyon nuclear facility and permanently freeze nuclear and long-range missile testing in exchange for a total repeal of U.S. sanctions. Yongbyon was not the entirety of North Korea’s nuclear program, but it was a significant part of the regime’s nuclear development.
As North Korea insisted on a total lifting of U.S. sanctions, Trump walked away, demonstrating a rare moment of restraint. Nevertheless, the personal rapport between Trump and Kim Jong Un suggests that future dialogue is possible and the two leaders now have established stances on negotiation redlines.
With North Korea aligning more closely with Moscow, U.S. national security is at increased risk. Just this past week, a delegation from North Korea’s top military university visited Russia.
While Trump’s impatience and attention issues are well-documented, his willingness to break from traditional U.S. policy toward the DPRK deserves some acknowledgment. As a political outsider, he showed a readiness to explore alternative strategies when it came to handling the North Korea issue.
Moving forward, if Trump wins in November, he must continue to seek escalation dominance with North Korea and reengage in negotiations with Kim Jong Un. While flamboyant and fiery rhetoric from the U.S president is out of step with traditional diplomatic discourse, it did push Pyongyang into positions of restraint and strategic fragility.
The idea of Pyongyang surrendering its nuclear arsenal is a Beltway fantasy. With enforcement mechanisms, Trump should call for a drastic reduction of North Korea’s weapons-grade plutonium and uranium, a stoppage in short-range and long-range missile development, a total halt to nuclear testing in exchange for substantial sanctions relief and, perhaps most importantly, the establishment of formal diplomatic ties with Pyongyang.
The establishment of a U.S. Embassy in Pyongyang would be a momentous event for a second Trump administration and pave the way to a more permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula.
Rather than commit to the fantastical notion of North Korea completely surrendering its nuclear arsenal, Trump should focus on achievable goals, leveraging his personal rapport with Kim to safeguard U.S. strategic interests amid increased great power competition with both Russia and China.
FOREIGN RELATIONSLEADERSHIPWMD
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About the Author
Benjamin R. Young
Benjamin R. Young is an Assistant Professor of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness at VCU (Virginia Commonwealth University). He is the author of Guns, Guerillas, and the Great Leader: North Korea and the Third World (Stanford University Press, 2021). He received his Ph.D. from The George Washington University in 2018. He has previously taught at the U.S. Naval War College and Dakota State University. He has published peer-reviewed articles on North Korean history and politics in a number of scholarly journals and is a regular contributor to NK News.
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