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The Japan Renewable Energy Institute’s “Proposal for the 2030 Energy Mix”
Andrew DeWit
Introduction
On August 6, 2020 Japan’s Renewable Energy Institute (REI) released a lengthy and ambitious “Proposals for the 2030 Energy Mix” (REI, 2020). The REI proposals are aimed Japan’s strategic energy policy, currently under review. The proposals centre on the power sector, perhaps the most crucial element of any “green recovery” from Covid-19’s massive economic impacts. The REI surveys Japan’s electricity system and outlines a "sustainable electricity generation mix" consistent with what the REI views as Japan’s principal challenges in the context of global energy trends and climate policy. In the REI’s estimation, Japan could and should achieve a dramatic revamp of its power mix by 2030. The REI argue that more aggressive policy could allow Japan – in a decade - to attain a 45% share of renewable electricity generation (tripling solar and octupling wind). Over the same period, this massive and rapid expansion of renewable power would be backed up by a huge increase in power generation from natural gas. In tandem, both nuclear power and coal-fired generation would be completely eliminated from the power mix. If achieved, this would rank among the world’s most far-reaching renewable energy programs.
The REI proposals are the most ambitious renewable-energy roadmap ever advanced by one of Japan’s top energy think tanks, and thus certainly merit review. Hence this brief paper outlines the REI proposals and their context. We then ask whether the proposals are a credible and cost-effective route towards the imperative of decarbonization. Drawing on research from the International Renewable Energy Association, the Japanese PV Association, and other agencies, we conclude that the proposals are impaired by numerous unstated assumptions and omissions. A conspicuous problem is the emphasis on eliminating low-carbon nuclear, even though virtually all decarbonization scenarios maintain a role for nuclear energy (World Energy Council, 2019; IRENA, 2018). Another area of concern is the REI’s failure to confront critical material logistics, in spite of their prominence in Japanese, EU, and other clean-energy industrial policies. We therefore suggest the proposal needs to be rethought, with a broader portfolio of renewables and less gas.
Read more: https://apjjf.org/2020/17/DeWit.html
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