【令和7年10月6日】小泉進次郎の恩師・コロンビア大学名誉教授 ジェラルド・カーティスが記者会見（日本外国特派員協会）
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I was trying to get
anybody. So I just
She didn't like
I know she's filmed the picture.
questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome today's guest. [Applause]
Sit down.
[Music]
Good morning everyone. Welcome to the Foreign Correspondents Club of Japan. I'm Dan Sloan, president of the
organization. Well, uh, Japanese history was made this weekend after the ruling
Liberal Democratic Party selected its new leader, Representatives Sane Takayichi, who will likely become the
nation's next prime minister. Uh, this morning, if you're looking at financial markets, they're talking about the
Takayichi trade as the Nikke soarses, the yen sinks, and bonds are uh in flux.
The 64year-old conservative is a former government minister, TV host, and reportedly an avid heavy metal drummer.
More on that later. Seriously though, the FCCJ is honored today and in this
timely moment uh to have Professor Gerald Curtis with us. He is one of America's foremost scholars of Japanese
politics. He will analyze the LDP vote and what lies ahead for Japan in its
next premiere. Takichi uh has called herself many things including Japan's
Margaret Thatcher. But whether that is an apt comparison or just wishful thinking, we believe to our guest. I
first saw Professor Curtis in a video about Japan some four decad
English fellow training session and later met him in the early 1990s uh when
he was uh running Colombia SEPA uh and the department there. I was a J school
student. Our guest, professor ameritus of political science at Colombia and chairman of the Marine and Mike
Mansville Foundation, is widely regarded as a leading authority on Japanese politics with decades of research and
writing shaping uh how both scholars and policymakers understand Japanese
democracy in books such as election campaigning Japanese style, the Japanese
way of politics, the logic of Japanese politics, politics and salary 45 years
living with Japan. Japan story. He has tutored individuals and governments on Japanese policymaking
for his contributions over the years. He was a recipient of the order of the rising sun gold and silver star from the
emperor. I should note that October is salary season and the 2025 catch has
shown a recovery in fish size and number. Can this recovery herald an LDP
rebound under a prime minister Takayichi? to answer these and many other questions. With no further ado,
Professor Kurt.
you were when when Necess was in Yurako, I used to be there all the time and I would give a speech at least once a year
so I could get a free membership uh for the for the following year. Uh this is only the second time I've been here and
and second time and I again I had trouble even finding where the room was. So, uh, I'm delighted to be here and I'm
delighted that now I'll have another year of membership and, uh, I plan to be
back more often. So, I I split my time between New York and Tokyo.
Before the pandemic, I was here about half of the year each year. Then the pandemic, I wasn't here for almost three
years. And now I'm sort of back. Uh, and it's really just a question of whether
my health, you know, if I'm healthy, I'll be on an airplane going in one direction or the other. Um, and uh,
we'll see how long how long that lasts. But, um, I'm glad I'm here now. I got here about 3 weeks ago. And of course,
it was the timing was very fortuitous. Uh, I'm leaving on the 26th and Trump is
showing up on the 27th. So, that may be for fortuitous as well. Um uh but
anyway, I've seen lots of elections here for a long time. I've been in this Japan
watching game uh since the mid60s. Um uh my I lived in Japan for the first
time in 1964 which leads me to make just an
advertisement here.
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I I did in Nikimu has
and I wrote it last year. It was published last December and now I've done an English version uh expanded
expanded version and that's appearing right now in Nikki online um Nik Asia. If you have a chance, uh, please take a look at it.
There some of it I think you
might find of interest about my how I ended up sitting up here and, uh, uh,
spending so much of my life involved with Japan, which I for which I had absolutely no reason to be involved with
until I was involved with it. Anyway, if you have chance chance to take a look at it, um,
uh, I'd appreciate it.
====
So, so as I said,
I've seen lots of election campaigns. This is the most boring election campaign of all that I've ever seen in
Japan. The reason is quite simple. None of the candidates wanted to say anything
that was controversial. Everybody played it safe.
Uh, everybody was on the defensive. All the candidates are at a loss as to
what to say the LDP should do or Japan should do to deal with its problems.
This is the main lesson to take away from this election. The LDP governance
model has expired. It's show again the use by date is
passed. You listen not only to the candidates but to any of the party leaders. They
say this is a crisis for the LDP. Well, you would think in a crisis you would
have some ideas about how to overcome the crisis. What was the ideas of the five candidates? Hold each other's
hands. Say we're a team. Uh we're going to work together.
Why would anybody be inspired to vote for any of them?
Uh I think it's so as I said uh
this is this is a very meaningful election in the sense that it has no that there's no there was no real
substance to it. uh and it just shows I think it's a point I actually going to
come back to again a little later but it shows that something very basic is changing in
Japan and it's kind of the same thing that's happening in all our democracies
all our mainstream parties are losing support not only the ruling party but
mainstream opposition parties as well so in the US it's not only the Republican
support has been going down the Democratic party support is going down faster and further. Um, and all our all
these countries, all our democracies are are growing extremist parties, whether
it be the National Rally in France, uh, Reform UK, uh, in in in Britain, um, AFD
in Germany, MAGA in the US or Sansto here. And I
think one reason why Takahi got elected is that the LDP conservatives are really
scared by Sansto. Not only that they're going to do well in the next lower house election,
they're going to do well in the next unified local local uh elections which
is in two years. And so the party played defensive.
They wanted someone, they decided they wanted someone who would hold on to the
LDP supporters, not someone who would reach out beyond the LTB supporters and
get broader support among the public. Uh,
in 1991, the LDP had 5.4 million members.
Today, it has 900,000. uh where did they all go? And it was
interesting in in 1991 the Japan's population was the same as it is today
124 million. So the so but after 2013 after 2012
after the LDP came back uh the high they the most they had was was they had 1.2
million in in two 1.4 million in 2020. Then, as I say, it's been it's down to
900,000. So, you would think or you might think that it's kind of a
losing game to say we're going to play defensive and get our voters to come out
and vote and not pay much attention to the other voters because they're not members of the party and expect that
this is going to lead eventually to doing well in the next lower house election. There's no connection there.
So, so this is just an indication that um
um that something something is something serious is going
on is going on here. And it's not what the LDP says it is. It's not that they can't hold themsel they can't cooperate
with each other. It's that they have no message to the Japanese people that
anybody finds really very interesting or very important or that responds to their concerns. So yes, everybody talked about
high high prices and either you're going to lower the consumption tax or you're going to give some subsidies.
Doesn't take a genius to figure out that you have to do something. So they're all promising to do that one thing or
another. Uh but but who's talking about long-term demographic change and what to
do about it? Who's talking um uh about growing inequality? Uh you Yes. People
talk about, you know, the gaene are taking over all the expensive part apartments and Tichi, you know, stuck
put her put her toes in the water and and, you know, criticized Gai for beating up on
deer in in N in Narak. Uh, but even she they all backed away from getting too
too xenophobic. Um, and of course that's Sunato's brand. Uh uh so
so in the end what happened uh Koisumi
uh who you know last year didn't do well but
still had the has gives the impression of being he's charismatic, he's charming, he's handsome, he's 44. You
know, people are excited that Japan, some people at least are excited that Japan has its first female prime
minister. Yeah. Female. She's female. That's for
sure. As far as I know, she's female. Uh but she's no she's no equal rights u you
know, feminist of any kind whatsoever. uh she doesn't think you know only only
the the this tendo can only be through the male line. She's opposed to to
separate you know women or retaining their maiden name after after marriage.
There's nothing about her that should make women feel wow now we have a champion. Um but
uh um
but she got 40% of the vote among the party members. I'm
going to details, but I think you're w you're all familiar that to become the president of the LDP, it's a two-stage
affair. And in the first one, there's all the LDP members, 295 of them, and
the same number of local uh uh LDP members and prefectures.
They vote and if anybody wins a majority, that's the the that's the new president. But nobody but nobody did. Uh
so it came down to the top two which was Takichi and and Shinjiro. Um uh Koisumi
jump to my bottom line. I think Takichi's victory is going to hasten the
decline and eventual collapse of the LDP. It's not it's not if, it's just when.
And it could happen fairly soon. Dan mentioned that
uh she thinks of Margaret Thatcher as her role model battle. Um uh just to
give credit where credit is due. I got this from Jeff Kingston who who made the point. Well, she may
end up being more Liz Truss than Margaret Thatcher, you know, who lasts a couple of months and be gone. She
probably lasts a lot longer than that, but but I don't, you know, she has this is a be a very rough road for her to uh
to to hold. Um um if you look back, you know, thinking
back on the election campaign, I mean, Shinju was in a good spot to win at at
the beginning. He was popular and and had even at the end, he had more diet members support in the first round than
uh than she did. He was the he was number number one. Uh
but in the old days when you had good real factions and smart
faction bosses, they would have invariably have concluded as the first round came to an
end, the only way to defeat Takahi is to have an alliance between Koisumi and
Hayashi. And if that meant that maybe you make you get let Hayashi become prime
minister first and have a deal where then no Kohisu would be next
that would have worked or if Hayashi could have been convinced to withdraw
and turn and say he is supporting Koisumi that could have worked. They didn't do
anything like that. So it tells you about I mean
I write in this Nikay series about people like Takashta and Nakason and
Koisumi and their their raw political skill and how much they love the game of
politics. That's not what you see today. You see a lot of salary men types. Um you see a
lot of people who are trying to sell their charisma but but don't have
that what LDP leaders had in the past which is an instinct for survival.
Whatever happened they are going to survive and they'll do whatever it takes to survive. You need to have that.
Kisumi's father had it. Uh Takkesha who was good friend of mine he had it. A lot
of them had it. I don't see it today. So that's that's the situation. Uh now what
is Takichi likely to do? Well, we know what she wants to do. She wants a big fiscal
expansion. Uh uh I think she's in real danger of
quickly making enemies both of MAF and of the BOJ.
If you listen to her press conference after winning the election,
she said don't forget it's the government that
resp that is responsible not only for fiscal policy but for monetary policy as
well. uh and basically in effect almost
declaring war on Novea and the B and the BOJ never mentioned the word independence
they're talking about the BOJ that the BOJ has independent it's not part of the government never mentioning that uh she
has a curious I noticed this first the other day when she wants to say
something serious and maybe a little nasty She gets a forced smile on her face and
then kind of a menacing tone in her voice. The combination is kind of
interesting. So that was the way she was talking about about the the BOJ. Now you know
the maf is scared to death of her running away with fisc with you know
this uh um fiscal spending and they will resist it.
We'll see who becomes the finance minister and I'm sure she'll try to have somebody in there that'll that'll be on
her t on her on her side on pushing for more fiscal spending. But but uh uh I
don't think she's going to get away with it. So I don't think that all that much is going to happen. It's hard to say what policy she's going to she can she
can push. um which would probably lead her to want to
emphasize so-called cultural issues constitutional revision
putting that uh is as a priority if she does you know that sucks so much of the energy so much of the oxygen out of the
room I know nothing else will get done so I don't think it's going anywhere um
uh she's not going to go to Yaskuni unless she's really looking for trouble with China and with with Korea So, what
is she going to do? Uh, just try to hold things together
and if it looks as though she's getting some popularity because of the she's the first female, maybe dissolve the house.
But before that, she has a big problem, right? which is nothing can pass without the support of of one or more opposition
parties because the LDP has only minority uh status in both the house in both you
know the lower house and and the upper house. Can she reach out to the constitutional democrats or to Ein
Nokai? Maybe easier with with Ein. Um, but they're going to demand
a lot for first I don't think they're going they're going to enter a coalition. Uh much better if I were
in the opposite much better to stay out of the government and just use your
bargaining chips, use your power to force them, force the LDP to do what you want on uh raising the you know minimal
level of income to be to be you know subject to income tax uh reducing
eliminating the so the so-called temporary gasoline tax which I think was institute 1974.
So my guess is that you're going to have these extended negotiations over specific
issues with without a coalition government at least for a while. Uh it makes it very difficult to get very much
very much done. Let me I I've already got it. Am I okay?
We'll take 30 minutes of questions. So please continue. Okay. So I want to switch the subject a little bit away
from the election in particular to what is this moment in Japanese history
politically and it's it's kind of the same moment it is in the US and all our democracies
it's a moment when the post-war system has completely ended the post-war system
meaning a system of kind of rules-based international order that is that was
orchestrated by and managed by the United States by its military power and
its determination and its support for free trade
uh effort to try to keep conflict uh at
least not involving the major nuclear powers and so forth and so on.
For a long time in Japan, some of you will will recall, there was a debate
that went on in in the Japanese press about Senora.
When did the post-war end? We know now. So, the postwar didn't end
overnight. The post-war system ending was was gradual,
but we can now put a definite definitive date on when it ended. That was January
20th, 2025, the day that Donald Trump
was reelected as president, because he rejects all the all the uh the
assumptions and all the the the the content of the so-called post-war
liberal international order. Doesn't believe in free trade, believes in
protectionism. Right now, he's not the first. One of the indications that that
he's in some ways more a beneficiary of these changes than actually the the the
instigator of them is that in the 2016 election that he won, not only Trump,
first of all, Obama decided not to try to submit the TPP to the to to to the
Senate because it would he wouldn't get through. And then not only Trump but the
great free trader, Hillary Clinton came out against TPP in the course of that campaign.
So one consequence one one um uh thing to draw from that is Trump will be gone
we hope uh in when the next president uh
is election is is held. But some of the key positions he's taken
are not going to be gone. anti- I would say anti a very tough line on immigration
whether it's Democrat or Republican that that succeeds Trump that we're not going back to the kind of loose enforcement of
of uh of the immigration laws uh uh allowing un so-called undocumented
meaning illegal entrance into the United States from from staying here that's
that age that's over hopefully it won't be done with the kind of cruelty and brutality uh that Trump
is is imposing uh on us. Um free trade,
it's hard to find a supporter of free trade in either the Democratic or the or the Republican party. Uh the idea that
now that globalization has been great for big business and really a disaster
for average workingclass people that is that's very widespread in the
United States. So I'm not saying it's all due to to Trump but he has taken this uh trend accelerated it and turned
it into um a a forceful policy.
uh and it means the po this post-war system is over. So what does that mean?
It means you can depend allies in the in the post-war system. The US
was committed to help its allies and it was committed to the idea that everybody has to benefit not just the US. Trump is
a zero someum negotiator. He wants it all.
And it reminds you how much power the US h has. It has the power to really shake
the Europeans in their boots and to force the Japanese to fork over $550
billion uh as a blank check for Trump to use as he as he prefers. This is raw
power. I would say the US has not from time to time used raw power to force allies to
do things that they didn't want really want to do. But nothing like this. This is a new game.
How does Japan play this new game? That is the question that none of these
characters who were who ran for the LDP president uh hasn't has any ideas about.
How do you play this game? Well, the first answer is you can't afford to alienate the president of the country on
which you depend for your security. And there's no way Japan can get around depending on the United States when push
comes to shove to help to to defend it. So you need an alliance with the with
the US. The danger I think with Takichi is that
there basically two schools of thought I think in among the conservatives about the alliance. One is that we need the
US. The US is trustworthy. We'll depend on the US. The other is we need the US
until we don't need the US, until we can do it on our own and become more autonomous.
I think Takishi's probably in the letter school. Uh uh but in in in in any case,
Japan needs the alliance with the US. But is that enough?
Uh, I've been talking to a lot of Japanese businessmen and and and and
politicians, especially younger politicians. Occasionally, but only very occasionally, do I get an intelligent
answer. Uh, usually it's well, what are we going to do? Uh, kind of attitude.
But the answer is that there's a big this Trump's policies provide not only a
problem, but a real opportunity for Japan. an opportunity for Japan to play
as a kind of a leading middle middle as a leading middle power to play a key
role in uh dealing with the with in helping with the global south deal with
its problems increasing trade investment with the global south and providing humanitarian aid and so on. I mean after
all the US has eliminated USID. You would think that this is an area where where Japan which stresses its
its you know its values of of democracy and sovereignty and the rest where they
might see an opportunity to do more in the area of of humanitarian aid. You
don't hear you don't hear much about it. Uh free trade here I give premise Abbe a
lot of credit. He pushed for saving. He saved TPP with this, you know, re
rewriting it as C CPT TPP uh and and RIP
and all these other international organizations uh international agreements. he pushed for the quad uh
and in other ways trying to maintain um uh build kind of a community
uh especially with Southeast Southeast Asia. That's where we need to hear what
Japanese politicians think the country could do in a positive constructive
manner to make the world a safer place especially to make this region uh a a a
safer place but unless I'm going deaf anything at my age anything is possible
including that uh I don't hear anybody saying things like that and and so
so Um so I think that this is this is a this
you know we talk about turning points and this comes a cliche because it's always things are always turning but this is a major turning point in
Japanese history and my sense is either they turn and and and discover the
courage uh to take risk and to develop a new new
new new strategy. ies all this country will slowly rather gently but assuredly
sink become weaker living standards and those of you who've been living here a long time no doubt no living standards
are going down the evidence of inequality and all the Ferraris running around Minatoku
uh show that um uh these weight these income disparities are growing very big
Japan and unfortunately is becoming more like us. Uh and there con one consequence is is
the rise of this of a comp of a party like Sansto. Now we don't know how
they're going to do in the next election but um the support for them is pretty
impressive and they're spending so much time developing running um recruiting
candidates for local for local elections. uh and then build build up from there.
So, there's a lot going on, a lot to talk about. Maybe I better stop and and open
it up for questions. All right. Thank you very much, Professor Curtis. We are uh live streaming today's press conference uh on
YouTube. We will be uh likely getting questions from our viewers online. Um
but I'd like to open the floor for our working press here. Please identify yourself, your organization, and because
we have so many folks, please try to limit yourself to one question and no speeches. Ant
um Anthony Roelly, South China Morning Post nowadays. Thank you for a very
sobering analysis. Um I I certainly agree with you that uh Trump's policies
open up opportunities for Japan, but presumably that has to be seen in the context of Japan China relations. Now
what do you think this election outcome means for Japan China relations? Um and
for initiatives from both sides. Thank you. Uh of course I should have put put that
in my in my in my remarks. It's hard to know with Takichi what it means and if it had been Hayashi
or Koisumi they would have looked for ways to develop. It would have been easy to answer the question. Uh you know
dealing with China is very tough. We have to be strong uh keep the alliance strong to to keep them from being so
aggressive uh expansionist and so on. But we have to look for ways to cooperate and you know you can't just
turn your head away from the from econ from from the lot you know the largest economy in the world which is right next
door. You have to find a way to get along with them. That's common sense.
Does so does she have common sense or not? Uh I'm not sure. I think uh uh the
danger with her is that she'll only she'll focus so hard
on the security issues and and sort of further poison the environment in in
relations between uh between Japan and China. But it's
hard to know in the end you know of course she's the prime minister. She's not she's not a president like like
Donald Trump is a president. Nobody has been a president like Donald Trump has has been president who has who has gone
out to find every possible way to expand the powers of the presidency. This is
not this is not Sia Takahichi. She wants to hang around for a while. Uh and so my
guess is that she won't do very much uh about much. and and on China um you just
have to hope that I hope that she takes a more balanced position. Japan, we all
need Japan to have a good relationship with China in my view. Uh we need Japan
also to reduce its dependence on China on the supply chains going through China
and so on and as we we do we do too. But but uh you know
you we there must have to at least make the effort to normalize relations and
avoid war and whether it be and so say whether it be Taiwan or
somewhere else. So Taiwan is a big issue. She's very pro- Taiwanese. uh I can't imagine that you would
actually go forward and sort of recognize Taiwan as an independent
country unless Trump goes first. And that's a danger. So I think the danger
maybe with with with Takahi is that Trump will do things like
uh we're not going to go for the war to defend Taiwan. um and basically
giving the ch you know in his in his in his way saying I trust the Chinese
they're not going to do anything now but basically giving them a a green light uh
or he's going to APEC it's in Malaysia
uh next when he comes out here the I maybe there's nothing to it but
the thought that he might have a uh a side meeting with Kim Jong-un.
Not impossible that Trump will say they have nuclear weapons. We all know they have nuclear
weapons. We got can't get rid of them. Why don't we just accept that? Recognize them as a nuclear armed state and
normalize relations. That's not an impossibility.
Uh what does that do to Japan's relations with South Korea? What does it do to South Korea? it it it just
encourages South Korea to go nuclear itself. Uh uh uh but whether the Chinese may be
playing some sort of a mediator role with North Korea and the US, no one knows. But you got to So I guess where
my I'll just stop by saying that I'm not sure what Takichi or Trump will do. But
Takichi is not going to get out in front of Trump on China issues if she can help it. And the Chinese may try to to um um
encourage Takichi to to get along with them and then make it difficult for the US or or
do the reverse and just beat up on on Japan. I I really don't know. But um
but I think that's the situation with China. Yes, sir.
and Shimura freedom lighter. Um, as you have seen some moves inside LDP after
the presidential election, do you see do you think the LDP is going back to an
old Thai party dominated by uh factions
uh and with uh heavyweights or do you see any chance for the LDP for the LDP
to emerge as a nuke type of party attracting young borders with uh
interest in the social network services. Thank you.
In a way, I see it going in a way, you know, factions never really disappeared.
Um and the key former faction leaders who are still powerful include Asso of
course and Kishida and Migi uh uh probably those three more than
than than others. But factions are not what they were. So the idea that
factions operate as a as as a unified group um uh that the that the faction
leader provides the funds and the faction members provide the loyalty to the faction leader. That's all in the
past. So they're weaker. The faction system I I Yeah, it exists, but it's
much it's much weaker. Except you got to give
uh 85year-old Asotaro
credit for for having pulled off this Takahichi V victory in the end. Uh by
saying that he want he he asked his faction members to vote for the
candidate who got the most votes among the towin among the party members in the first round. knowing that that was
Takahichi was his way to get to get her to get her
in. So, you know, it's worth remembering
um in that first round
among the diet men, Koisumi got 80 votes. Takichi uh Hayashi came in second
with 72 and Takahuchi we always placed third with only 64
64 votes. That's why I said before if Koisumi and
and Hayashi had formed an alliance one of the two one of the two would would become party president. Uh but in
the second round um Takichi
got more. Remember the first round Koisumi got the most 80. In the second round Takichi got the mo and she was
third in the third second round Takichi got 149 uh diet member seat. there was a
huge a huge shift uh to her and a lot of
it had to do with Asso. So I don't underestimate Asso's importance but u I don't al I
don't and I hope he lives long because he's he's two days younger than I am. Uh
and um I'm not planning to to disappear yet. So I expect he'll he'll want to
hang around for a while. But, you know, his his days as as a as a major
kingmaker, he is the last real kingmaker. And I think they're they're just about coming coming to to an end.
So, as I said in my my opening comments, the problem with the LDP is they don't
know they don't know who they want, how they're going to reach the vote, the the voters that they're not reaching. And
that's their that's what you thought that they that especially Shinji Kisumi
I thought he would come he would come out and have a have ideas that would
excite young people uh that would excite middle-aged people you know the the generation of people in their 40s
uh who sort of came into maturity with the with the global uh economic crisis.
They're not happy people. They're not happy with the LDP. A lot of people are not happy with the
LDP. So, you would think the LDP would try to figure out, okay, what do you do that to make them appreciate you? And their only answer is spend money. This
is this is Takish's answer. Spend more money. Fiscal expansion. Tell the BOJ,
"Sorry folks, but you you think may think you have independence, but we're not going to let you uh you know,
normalize monetary policy and slowly raise raise rates." That's where they're at. So, I just want
to emphasize once again, this c this country and this party is at a dead end.
It has to either find a new route or it's going to disappear. And if it disappears, then you're going
to have an extended period of weak government changing uh you know uh ch uh
musical chairs as far as is the prime minister. And in the in the meantime,
the policies that need to be confront confronted will be kicked down down the
road. So I don't want to sound overly pessimistic, but it's hard to be optimistic
about this situation at the moment, particularly when you listen to these LDP people who don't have a clue as to
what they should do. Yes, sir. And then we'll come to you. Yes, sir.
Thank you for professor Gerald Katis. My name is Yang Ji, Korean journalist, uh,
Asia Today Tokyo correspondent. Okay.
uh the US Japan alliance restaurant close coordination
between Tokyo and so but the new LDP leader uh M Tichi has
made hubline remarks on territorial and historical issues
with South Korea and Korean peninsula issue.
How do you think Washington will view uh or respond to this stance?
I am cautiously optimistic about Japan Korea relations.
I think even the right-wing uh people like Takayichi
understand that for Japanese security having a strong trilateral relationship
with Korea and the US is critical. Uh so I think whatever she thinks about
about uh the the long Japanese
occupation of Korea or pre-war u treatment of um of of Koreans or
Yasuni shrine I have my sense is she will not put that up up front and try to
focus on the security relationship and the economic relationship. There's no benefit for anybody from a
return to bad Japan Korea relations. I think that has gotten
is better understood in Japan now than it was even a year ago. So,
so that's my sense. I think uh and I my sense is that the Korean government has
been dealing with Japan very effectively. uh the new government uh and talking
about the importance of a positive relationship and not making a big deal
of the difficulties in that relationship. So I think if both countries leaders act with um are mature
and uh sober they will recognize the national interest is in getting along. I
think the chances of that happening are much better than the reverse which is kind of return to to Heiji hostile
actions. All right. Yes, sir. Over here and then I'll be taking a question from our
online viewer. Please go ahead.
Good to see you. Thank you for your speech. I'm Fittita a senior staff
writer of the Asai Shimu. My question is uh how do you predict Trump Trump's
reaction if Takai visits Yasuni shrine? I'm asking this because as you know
Takage is a pro- Yasuni shrine politician and as you know US government
basically dislikes Japanese prime minister Yasuni shrine visit uh in terms
of Tokyo trial or air war criminal but I guess Trump may be somewhat different
about this kind of history problem because when recently new South Korean
President uh visited white house in August. Trump persuaded him to uh have good
relationship with Japan in terms of comfort program. So I'm glad to have
your in terms of what comfort woman problem. Yeah. Okay. I'm glad to have your comment. Thank
you.
Uh well, nobody knows what Trump's reaction is going to be to anything. Um he he
couldn't care less about the history issue. He it he couldn't I'm sure he doesn't
care whether she goes to Oscuni or not unless it makes life difficult for him.
If it makes it difficult for him, then he doesn't want it. And so if if she goes to Yasuni,
the Chinese reaction will be extreme, the Korean reaction will not be happy.
It'll be pretty very very negative. Uh that makes life really difficult for for
for Donald for Donald Trump. Why is she doing this to me over some goddamn uh
visit to to to you know to a place where there there no graves anyway? It's just
their souls supposedly are there. You can just hear him uh telling his, you
know, his buddies in the White House, doesn't make any sense. What's the matter with her? That would be my guess.
So, uh, and for other reasons as well. I I can't, you know, it would be so
foolish of her, especially in this first in her first year
to to create a major diplomatic uh
incident because she wants to go to Yasun Shrine. Yeah, I get it. You know, she doesn't
really she doesn't need it for domestic political purposes. She's popular with the right enough. She don't she has to
go to Yaskuni to prove to the right-wingers that she's on their team. They know she's on their team. They're
very happy with her. So So for all those reasons, I I I suspect that um Trump
would not be happy and he would make his unhappiness known if she did things to screw up his relationships with Korea
and with and with China. And once she got the message, she'd back off.
Okay. Uh our next question comes from online. There are two that are very similar. One from Rocky Swift of Reuters
and another from Kell Nazari of Panorient News. Um essentially in the
past sometimes heads of state here have at least taken notice of financial
market reaction. Um Rocky notes that uh
there's been a huge jump in JGB yields that has obviously impact on borrowing
uh and economic uh in the economy. Is she going to notice or how
significant will it be financial market volatility or activity on either
selecting finance minister or or policy in general?
I'm not sure I know the answer to that question. Mainly I think the finance
choosing the finance minister she needs she wants someone who supports
her position on fiscal expansion. uh whether that person would have the
clout to to corral the bureaucrats uh who will be very much
opposed to what she wants to do. Hard to know, hard to see. Um
uh but as I said earlier on these economic issues
I think I think she runs a real danger of of of creating enemies among the most
important ministries and affiliated organizations in Japan.
Um, so again, you know, since I we don't know what she's going to try really try
to do, uh, it it it it's easy to jump to the conclusion she she she can't do very
much. uh her first to put things back in in
perspective here. Her first job is to figure out how to create a relationship
with opposition parties so they can get some legislation passed that needs to that needs to pass. And it's not going
to be by forming a coalition. I don't believe I don't think any right any opposition party leader who's who's
thinking right who's thinking who's thinking right is going to join a coalition with the LDP at this point but
so it'll be this uh bubono you know partial uh coalitions agreements on on
policy issues that's what she needs to do that uh
you assume that she wants to stay in office for a while that invariably will pull the board towards the and away from some of the right-wing
positions she's had. The difference between her and Abbe Shin Shinszol is
really important. She's like, she is a, you know, kind of almost talks of herself as a clone of Abbe. She she she
wants to go back to his abomics and and um uh uh and security policy and so on.
So she very so you know what she wants to do because she wants to do what Abbe left undone.
But there's a big difference. Abbe was a strategist. He had a strategy
and we looking back looking back on it you have to give the man a lot of credit especially on defense issues. uh he did
it in a in a very orderly thoughtout manner from you know from from limited
collective defense to uh increased defense spending and so on. She's not a
she doesn't have any strategy. She has emotions u uh she's a right-winger uh in kind of
cultural terms. She thinks only men should be emperor of Japan. You can't have an empress. She doesn't, even
though she uses her maiden name, it's so weird. Uh, she doesn't use the name of
her husband, but she doesn't think it's that legally a woman should have the right to keep her maiden name. I mean,
there are other issues as well about about gender equality where she's more
like like in the old days, Phyllis Sheffley, who who uh, you know, was the anti-feminist uh, woman. This is this is
Takichi. So, I don't know. People get all excited about Takahuchi becoming prime minister, having the first female.
It would have been a hell of a lot more exciting if Shinjo Koisumi would have become the youngest prime minister since
itubi who was Japan's first first prime minister. That would have been exciting. Whether the excitement would have lasted
or turned into a disaster, well, we don't know. But nothing exciting about a right-wing female
uh uh becoming head of a of of a party except in Japan. It's so unusual. There
are other women here who would be much more qualified for that position and
they eventually will emerge. I think maybe that's one thing maybe one accomplishment of of Takichi
is to break break the ice on the idea that a woman
can become prime minister. So there are other women out in the in the wings that
will now make their their their game known. Uh the financial markets are
acting so weird up one day down to up up today. Uh the initial reaction was kind
of negative. U I can't make you know it's a it it's a
um uh it's a casino I think and and in a
casino sometimes people make place a bet they win and they lose. I I don't I
can't read much into it. All right. I believe there was a question over here. Yes, sir. And then we have one more online and that will
probably take us to time.
Well, thank you very much. Uh I'm Kenji from Nikk. So I'm very thankful for you writing the uh show for us. Yeah, I'm
running it right now in English. Well, okay. My question is on the coalition. Um not the the potential coalition
member, but the existing one. Kito has been uh uh strongly hinting immediately
after Takahuchi was elected that Seaitto son came Mr. Saito came out saying that okay well he really straightforward uh
sort of fear of having her in the LDP. So what is your thought on the come's position the existing coalition
framework and if there is a case where come is going to drop out be much less on the the LDP side what is going to
happen if that longl lasting uh link between coalition between LDP and KATO
is to fell apart thank you you know I was I had uh I had a talk
just just two days ago with a former leader of the of the cometo who's who's
actually become a good a good friend of mine who was very pessimistic
um about about his party because they don't really have any
option. If you leave the coalition what do you then you have no no leverage
whatsoever. uh but to stay in this coalition especially with ehin being um
u being courted by the LDP which is their major competitor in in in Kai
um they're really at something of a loss and the you know the biggest problem for the Kmetto is it's aged it's becoming
it's it's its membership is getting so old that again even like almost like
with the LDP itself recruiting younger uh people is a real problem.
So I think the chances are probably better than not
that the come stays in the coalition. The LDP needs needs every vote it can get. So the LDP
will make sub compromises uh with it on on issues that are important to it and
keep on giving it a cabinet position. Um which is useful for them uh uh
and the cometo will continue to lose seats. That is my sense. So as I
mentioned earlier and I'll conclude with this there's nothing unique about what's going on in Japan. What's going on here
right now is what's going on in all our democracies. For for a lot of complicated reasons, the popularity of
mainstream political parties is that is declining. The voters
motivation to act on the basis of anger and resentment uh rather than looking for ways to for
cooperation and unity is increasing. which means you have a fragmentation
of support for parties including for new extreme parties especially on the right
but we'll see them on the left as well. Uh that is
our common problem and if the Japanese are not careful
they're going to end up like us and I don't wish that on anybody.
Uh, Professor Curtis, I'm going to take the liberty to ask the final question. And that fellow has his hand is getting
tired because he's been up in the final question. Go ahead.
Thanks for asking the last question. My name is Dasil from writing for a Dutch
newspaper. Um, we said a lot about Taka Iichi, but
if I understand correctly, she's also one of the first possible prime ministers that isn't from a long family
line of of leadership. Can you say something about how special
that is and if that's something that voters in Japan would like or help Yeah.
help get votes? Well, it's unusual, that's for sure. I mean, you think back, you think about
who um who gets to be PM, not all of them have been have been legacy
candidates, but there far too many legacy candidate legacy politicians uh
in in Japan. It's just like flower arranging and the tea ceremony. Uh um
and I don't see that situation getting better initially but it's it's
different from the old days in that the legacy can the people who get elected
now so many of them not all of them but many of them um
weren't particularly intent on becoming politicians but gra Daddy dies and mama says you have to carry on the family
tradition. They don't make very good politicians. There are others you know uh for example
Shinjau who was my student at Colombia. I remember when we were chatting and he
said you my father said to me there's no reason for you to become a politician.
You need to become what you want to be what you want to do. you make up your own mind. I don't want you to become a
politician because I'm a politician. And uh uh he told me this and then he
actually came back to Japan for on a visit and came back to New York. He said, "I have to talk. I want to talk to you. I have something to tell you." And
so we met and he said, "I was thinking about what I want to do and what I really want to do is I want to be in
politics. I want to run for the diet." Had nothing to do with my father. I just, you know, this is what this is
where my passion is. That's important when they to have that kind of of uh passion for it. So some of
them some of them do. Now Takichi is a different different she's totally different
because you say she doesn't have that kind of family family background. I don't think she's been a heavy drama,
you know, heavy metal drummer for a long time, but apparently she did do that when she she was young.
um uh doesn't quite fit with her her image. But anyway, um I don't think
she's going to get much mileage out of it. Frankly, I think for a lot of Japanese voters,
the idea that you know, Hayashi's father was in was in the upper house that um uh
other you know, Daraso's what grandfather is
it? It's a Yoshida. Um uh
this is this is just the way it is in Japan. I wouldn't make much too much of it.
All right, with that we'll conclude today's uh session. Um Professor Curtis is spending more time in Japan and
consequently as an assignment of our thanks uh we will extend another one-year uh honorary membership. Uh we
hope you uh use it frequently. I know you're leaving later this month, but uh our 20 our 80th anniversary event is in
November. And if you're here, by all means, please come. We'll be back. All right. Very good. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
He's still a very interesting character.
I don't think he has any.
So,
Good to see you, Nancy.
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