SNU Open Repository and Archive: 북한 붕괴론 논쟁 탐구
북한 붕괴론 논쟁 탐구
A Study on the debate about the collapse of North Korea
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Authors정지웅Issue Date2017-06-23Publisher서울대학교 통일평화연구원Citation통일과 평화, Vol.9 No.1, pp. 162-194Keywords김정은 정권; 북한 붕괴; 북한 생존; 내구력; Kim Jong-un's regime; The collapse of North Korea; The survival of North Korea; Durability
Abstract본 연구는 김일성 사망 이후 끊임없이 제기된 북한 붕괴론에 대한 논쟁을 시기별로 탐구하였다. 이를 위해
1) 동구권 붕괴와 김일성 사망, 고난의 행군 시기 이후
2) 김정일뇌졸중, 그리고 재스민 혁명 이후,
3) 김정일 사망과 김정은의 등장 이후 등으로 나누어
사안별로 북한 붕괴를 주장하는 학자들의 논거와 이에 반론을 펴는 학자들의 주장을 정리하였다.
이어서 북한붕괴론 논쟁을 분석하여 보다 바람직한 통일정책을 펴는 데 일조하고자 하였다.
지금까지 다양한 내외적 환경에 의해 북한 붕괴론이 제기되었음에도 불구하고 김정은정권은 여전히 존재하고 있다. 이것이야말로 북한 붕괴론의 한계를 보여준다고 할 수 있을 것이다. 이 연구의 결과는 현재로서는 북한의 붕괴 가능성이 낮다는 것을 보여준다.
따라서 앞으로 북한과의 끊임없는 정치 경제적 접촉 및 화해협력과 평화공존 정책을 병행하여 추진할 필요가 있다. 그리하여 과정으로서의 통일을 이루어가는 것이 보다 현실적이라 할 것이다.
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This paper has attempted to study for debates on the collapse of North Korea since the death of Kim Il Sung. For this, I classified the times as follows : 1) the collapse of Eastern Bloc, the death of Kim Il-sung and the march of hardship 2) the stroke of Kim Jong Il and the Jasmine Revolution 3) the death of Kim Jong-Il and the appearance of Kim Jong Un.
Next, I summarized the argument of scholars who had predicted the collapse of the North Korea and scholars who had predicted the preservation of the North Korea. And then, I analyzed the debates on the collapse-theory of the North Korea. As a result of this study, I wanted to serve for the desirable unification policy.
Up to present, there are so many opinions of internal and external surroundings about the collapse of North Korea, but the Kim Jong-Un’s regime has been still exited since the death of Kim Jong Il. This shows the limits of the North Korea-collapse-theory.
As the result of this study, in the short term, I insist that the possibility of North Korea's collapse should be low. Therefore, Our Government must pursue not only the unceasing political and economic contacts but also reconciliation and cooperation policy on North Korea. If we propel the unification as the process, this will be more realistic.
This paper has attempted to study for debates on the collapse of North Korea since the death of Kim Il Sung. For this, I classified the times as follows : 1) the collapse of Eastern Bloc, the death of Kim Il-sung and the march of hardship 2) the stroke of Kim Jong Il and the Jasmine Revolution 3) the death of Kim Jong-Il and the appearance of Kim Jong Un.
Next, I summarized the argument of scholars who had predicted the collapse of the North Korea and scholars who had predicted the preservation of the North Korea. And then, I analyzed the debates on the collapse-theory of the North Korea. As a result of this study, I wanted to serve for the desirable unification policy.
Up to present, there are so many opinions of internal and external surroundings about the collapse of North Korea, but the Kim Jong-Un’s regime has been still exited since the death of Kim Jong Il. This shows the limits of the North Korea-collapse-theory.
As the result of this study, in the short term, I insist that the possibility of North Korea's collapse should be low. Therefore, Our Government must pursue not only the unceasing political and economic contacts but also reconciliation and cooperation policy on North Korea. If we propel the unification as the process, this will be more realistic.
ISSN2092-500XLanguageKoreanURIhttp://hdl.handle.net/10371/138494
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PDF6. 정지웅_북한붕괴론 논쟁 탐구.pdf0.48 MB
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