North Korean leader Kim Jong-un acknowledges economic shortfalls amid COVID-19, flooding and heavy sanctions
Posted Yesterday at 1:34pm, updated Yesterday at 1:43pm
Experts say the coronavirus has derailed some of Mr Kim's major economic goals.(AP: Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service)Share
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has acknowledged his plans to improve the country's dismal economy are failing.
Key points:
Mr Kim made the unusually frank comments at a meeting of the party's decision-making Central Committee
The country's party said "severe internal and external situations" meant the economy had not improved
Seoul's spy agency said the stress of managing state affairs had caused Mr Kim to recently delegate some of his powers
Mr Kim said economic "shortcomings" have been caused by "unexpected and inevitable challenges in various aspects and the situation in the region surrounding the Korean Peninsula".
The comments were reported by the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Thursday.
His ruling party has scheduled a rare congress in January to set development goals for the next five years.
The Workers' Party said North Korea's economy had "not improved in the face of the sustaining severe internal and external situations".
The comment is a reference to US-led sanctions, the coronavirus pandemic and devastating floods.
The party also said development goals had been "seriously delayed and the people's living standard [had] not been improved remarkably".
Hand sanitiser is dispensed to prevent the spread of COVID-19 as passengers get on a trolley bus in Pyongyang.(AP: Jon Chol Jin)Mr Kim reportedly made the unusually frank comments at a meeting of the party's decision-making Central Committee.
Mr Kim announced his first five-year development plan with goals of improving North Korea's power supply and agricultural and manufacturing production during the last Workers' Party congress in 2016, which was the country's first in 36 years.
Stress causes Kim to delegate: Spy agency
Experts say the coronavirus has derailed some of Mr Kim's major economic goals after North Korea imposed a lockdown that significantly reduced trade with China, its major ally and economic lifeline.
They said it also likely hampered North Korea's ability to mobilise its workforce.
Mr Kim's sister, Yo-jong, is the first vice department director of the ruling Workers’ Party’s Central Committee.(Reuters: Leah Millis)In a closed-door briefing to South Korean politicians on Thursday, Seoul's spy agency said the stress of managing state affairs had caused Mr Kim to recently delegate some of his powers to a select group of senior officials, including his sister, Kim Yo-jong.
She is now reportedly chiefly involved in shaping policies toward Washington and Seoul.
Politician Ha Tae-keung said officials from the National Intelligence Service (NIS) — which has a mixed track record in reading developments in North Korea's secretive ruling elite — insisted Mr Kim's rule over his country remained absolute.
There were no signs Mr Kim was experiencing health problems or was grooming his sister as his successor, Mr Ha paraphrased spy officials as saying.
Kim Byung-kee, another politician who attended the briefing, said the NIS believed North Korea's foreign currency reserves were being depleting rapidly because of prolonged border controls imposed under its anti-virus campaign, which had led to cutbacks in construction and other activities.
The NIS did not confirm the comments.
Kim sacks premier, keeps borders closed
Last week, Mr Kim sacked his premier after an evaluation of the Cabinet's performance in economic policies.
He also said the country was facing a dual challenge of fending off COVID-19 and repairing damage from torrential rain that lashed the country in recent weeks, destroying thousands of homes and nearly 100,000 acres of crops.
Mr Kim insisted North Korea would keep its borders shut and reject any outside help.
"North Korea had originally planned to lavishly celebrate its economic achievements [from Mr Kim's first five-year plan] at the October 10 celebration of the 75th anniversary of the party's founding … but couldn't foresee the huge setback," said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior analyst at South Korea's Sejong Institute.
While scheduling the new party congress for January likely reflected hope the pandemic would ease by then, North Korea may struggle to fully revive cross-border trade, especially if its poor healthcare system continued to raise concern, Mr Cheong said.
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De-nuclearisation talks between the US and North Korea failThe party congress in January would "set forth a correct line of struggle and strategic and tactical policies" after reviewing the experience of the past five years, it said in a statement published on KCNA.
The report did not directly mention nuclear diplomacy with the United States, which stalled over disagreements in exchanging sanctions relief and denuclearisation steps.
But it is possible Mr Kim could use the party congress, which will take place after the US presidential election in November, to announce a new foreign policy approach toward the United States and South Korea.
Mr Kim's economic setbacks have left him with nothing to show for his dealings with US President Donald Trump.
Diplomacy deteriorated after the collapse of their talks last year in Vietnam, when the US rejected North Korea's demand for major sanctions relief in exchange for a partial surrender of its nuclear capabilities.
Some experts say the North is likely to avoid serious negotiations with the United States before the election since US leadership could change.
AP
Posted Yesterday, updated Yesterday
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Kim Jong-un says North Korea has avoided a coronavirus outbreak. His grip on power may depend on it
By Debra Killalea
Posted ThuThursday 13 AugAugust 2020
Officially Pyongyang has yet to confirm a single case of COVID-19, but experts say it is unlikely North Korea has avoided the virus.(Kyodo Via Reuters)Share
It is known for missile launches and having one of the most authoritative regimes in the world. But North Korea has recently wanted to be known for something else: avoiding a coronavirus outbreak.
Key points:
North Korea has not publicly confirmed any cases of COVID-19
A defector who returned with symptoms had inconclusive test results
The border city of Kaesong has reportedly been locked down
North Korea's tightly guarded borders and lack of foreign tourists have meant the risk of transmission from travellers there has remained low.
But experts say it is almost impossible for the country to avoid the virus altogether given it shares a 1,420 kilometre border with its ally China.
New York Asian affairs analyst Sean King said he could not see how North Korea could avoid coronavirus.
"I can't imagine North Korea has zero local COVID-19 cases," Mr King, senior vice president at Park Strategies, said.
"But, as with [North Korean leader] Kim Jong-un's occasional disappearances from public view, we speculate as to what might actually be happening there at our peril."For the latest news on the COVID-19 pandemic read our coronavirus live blog.
Even if North Korea's move to shut its border with China seven months ago does prevent an outbreak, it will have come at a huge cost to the secretive Kim family which rules the country, with its main source of trade plummeting.
Kim trying to protect nation — and himself
Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst in defence strategy and capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, says it is likely there are a significant number of cases inside North Korea, despite efforts by the regime to contain the spread.
Dr Davis said he believed Mr Kim's biggest fear was not only having an outbreak in his nation, but how an explosion in infections would affect his hold on power.
Experts say coronavirus and a subsequent economic collapse could have ramifications for Kim Jong-un's grip on power.(KCNA Via Reuters)"Kim faces not only a challenge in terms of preventing the rapid spread of COVID-19 in the country — a health crisis — but potentially an internal security crisis as well if COVID-19 were to get out of control," he said.
"His greatest priority will be maintaining his grip on power personally and ensuring his family line is protected."
He said North Korea's extensive border with China — which remains the nation's largest trade partner — and the potential for person-to-person transmission would remain major concerns for the regime.
"That takes on an economic dimension, especially if trade across the North Korea-China border is cut to prevent the spread of COVID-19 both ways — into China from North Korea and vice versa," he said.
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"In that sense, Kim is facing a real challenge to economic growth — [which is] already weak — national health, and ultimately preserving his power."
Koreas at odds over whether defector took virus to North
Just last month North Korea revealed it was quarantining thousands of people and shipping food and other aid to a city locked down over coronavirus fears.
The city of Kaesong, which is close to the South Korean border, was locked down over coronavirus fears.(Reuters: Kim Hong-Ji)North Korean state media said it had declared a state of emergency and locked down the border city of Kaesong.
It came after a person who defected to South Korea three years ago returned across the border with what the regime said were symptoms of COVID-19.
The man reportedly swam home across the Imjin River after South Korean police issued a warrant for his arrest on rape allegations.
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At the time, North Korean state media was unclear on whether the man had been tested, saying an "uncertain result was made from several medical check-ups".
But Mr Kim declared "the vicious virus could be said to have entered the country" and authorities quarantined more than 3,600 and secondary contacts.
South Korea maintains there is no evidence the returning defector was infected.
A disease outbreak has long been Kim's biggest fear
Mr Kim appears terrified of any pandemic hitting his country, according to Shea Cotton, a senior research associate at Washington's James Martin Centre for non-proliferation studies.
"I recall they sealed up tight in 2014 over fears that the Ebola outbreak in West Africa might reach them," Mr Cotton told the ABC.
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Data sources: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, Our World in Data, The COVID Tracking Project, ABC
"So in some ways, I feel [North Korea's] leadership had already prepared itself mentally for a pandemic and needing to lock down."
Mr Kim's mysterious disappearance from public view in May could indicate he was worried about contracting it.
Mr Cotton, an expert in North Korea's missile capabilities, said it was also entirely possible North Korea was lying about the extent of the virus in the country.
"While I doubt it's as prevalent [there] as it is here in the US, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they'd gotten control of it in the same way China had: with extremely strict shut-down and social-distance orders," he said.
Mr Cotton added the virus might be more prevalent in the Korean countryside and prisons, but that would be impossible to prove from the outside.
North Korea watchers say most people are wearing masks in Pyongyang to stop the spread of coronavirus.(Kyodo Via Reuters)"In Pyongyang, though, they've probably managed to get enough people to wear masks and social distance and test so as to limit its spread," he said.
Either way, he said, it was hard to know if there was a massive spike in cases across North Korea due to the secretive nature of the regime.
"One thing to keep in mind, though, is that it takes constant vigilance to keep coronavirus at bay," Mr Cotton said.
"Plenty of places that got control of it, or who had small numbers of infected people to begin with, have taken their eyes off the ball, tried to re-open, and seen their numbers balloon.
"I could imagine something similar happening with North Korea, especially this [autumn] with the harvest."
North Korea faces own version of reopening
As the weather turns cool in September, North Korean people put all their efforts into harvesting and storing food for the winter and early spring.
"That'll be North Korea's equivalent of having to 're-open' because doing it will require a lot of people working," Mr Cotton said.
Many people are needed to harvest the rice fields, move the grain around and distribute it.
North Korea depends on a successful harvest of rice in the autumn months to have enough food for winter.(Reuters: Reinhard Krause)"While they may be working on a strategy to limit the spread, if it's not implemented correctly, they too may see a sudden spike in cases," he said.
Mr Cotton, who has spent several years verifying details and information about North Korea, says it would be difficult to determine anything about the virus in the hermit kingdom, but satellite information may prove a vital clue.
"I recall in Iran there were reports that mass graves could be seen from satellite images," he said.
"This might be one of the only ways for outsiders to detect a massive outbreak in North Korea in real time."
Kim sets up South Korea for virus blame
North Korea insists that while the rest of the world has been battling a major pandemic, it has been fine.
North Korea has not confirmed any coronavirus cases but has enforced strict quarantine measures.(Reuters Via KCNA)Mr King said Mr Kim offered "unwavering friendship" and sympathy to South Korea in early March over the outbreak.
In a letter to South Korean President Moon Jae-in, Mr Kim "conveyed his message of comfort to the South Korean people who are battling against the outbreak of COVID-19".
But Mr King pointed out that Mr Kim's letter implied the virus was something external to North Korea and of no concern to its citizens.
He also appeared to be shifting any blame for the pandemic from China to his rivals in the south, Mr King said.
"This tracks with general North Korean rhetoric that paints South Korea as somehow impure, or soiled, because of the South's exposure to the outside world," Mr King said.
"And by tying its only publicly acknowledged apparent COVID-19 case to a defector recently returned from South Korea, the North already has in place a theory to blame the South should it ever have to acknowledge any wider outbreak."
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