Guarantee the US guarantee

Guarantee the US guarantee




Suggestions to the President
Tue, June 12, 2018 | 07:30





Guarantee the US guarantee
Posted : 2018-06-11 17:34
Updated : 2018-06-11 17:35
By Charles Park


We are all relieved to see the Pyeongchang Peace Initiative blooming. But is there any room for optimism going into the June 12 U.S.-North Korea Summit between the U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean Chairman Kim Jong Un?

If the past is any indicator, the chances are high that the summit will be a failure. There may be no deal, or else it will be a short-lived one like all the previous nuclear deals with North Korea.

Besides the usual chorus of naysayers among the think tank pundits and mainstream media, there is another group of naysayers more germane to the success of any deal: The U.S. Senate.

First, the US Republican leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, warned President Trump not to be "snookered" into making a deal for the deal's sake. It was like saying, "Son, don't give away the store."

Then a group of leading Democratic senators sent a petulant letter full of stiff unrealistic demands. It was like saying, "Trump, we want you to fail."

It is worrisome because one reason the Neocon President George W. Bush easily dismantled the 1994 Agreed Framework is that the Senate did not ratify it.

The North Koreans said they would denuclearize if their peace and security were guaranteed. So far, they don't have much more than Trump's words. It's better than nothing, but what good are Trump's words? He has walked out of the Paris climate accord and the Iranian nuclear deal.

Additionally, the U.S. itself has a poor track record. Libya and Iraq agreed to give up nuclear weapons only to be thrown into chaos by U.S. regime-change operations. Thus, rather than Trump walking out, there is a good possibility that Kim Jong Un might be the one to walk out.

For peace to work in Korea, you may need to guarantee the U.S. guarantee.

Here is one proposal: Get the UN on board as a further guarantor of peace in Korea. The UN General Assembly endorses the end of the Korean War. Also, the UNSC and each of the permanent member states (to avoid the veto power impediment to UNSC collective action) pledge to guarantee the peace deal that is the territorial integrity of each of the Koreas except for under a peaceful unification scenario.
After all, the UN has a special duty to end the Korean War and restore peace in Korea. The UN helped to establish the Republic of Korea, which shortly led to the establishment of the Democratic Republic of Korea.

Then the UNSC set up the UN Command and intervened in the Korean War (it is supposed to be still active despite being disowned by many UN Secretary Generals). And without resolving the ongoing Korean War, the UNSC has sanctioned North Korea's nuclear weapons program. Such actions indicate that the UN was and is an active participant in the ongoing Korean War.

A basic formula I previously put forward is for the Koreans to declare the Korean War over unilaterally and agree to an Inter-Korean Peace Treaty (perhaps the Panmunjeom Declaration, properly upgraded, could become such a treaty). Then have the US endorse it in exchange for North Korean denuclearization. A UN guarantee on the U.S. agreement cements the deal(s).

Such a guarantee could be the basis for a Korean Peninsula Peace Regime. And sometime in the future, a neutral, demilitarized, commercial, and peaceful Korean Peninsula could be the basis of a nuclear-free Northeast Asian peace regime.

After 20 years of failure, it might be our last chance to denuclearize North Korea. Failure can lead to war by declaration or by accident or to a new global nuclear arms race which includes many more players including possibly South Korea and Japan. Then the security of the world, including the U.S., would be much worse.

Despite the vast mistrust between the U.S. and North Korea, everyone, including the American senators and the usual naysayers, should support the current peace initiative.


Charles Park is the founder of SPEDI.Org and Research Associate with The Asia Institute and KUSPI.