1️⃣ 이 토론에서 사실 가능성이 높은 주장 vs 정치적 주장 2️⃣ 미국 군사 전문가들의 실제 평가 (이란 군사력) 3️⃣ 이란 미사일 전력의 실제 수준 4️⃣ 이 전쟁이 실제로 어떻게 전개될 가능성이 높은가
동아시아의 평화와 화해의 정치학 Scrapbook
문화, 의식, 운동의 면을 분석
2026-03-14
INTERVIEW: Israel will achieve its Greater Israel project - YouTube
INTERVIEW: Israel will achieve its Greater Israel project - YouTube
INTERVIEW: Israel will achieve its Greater Israel project
George Galloway
591,265 views Mar 10, 2026 #Israel #iran #MOATS
The biblical prophecy will be fulfilled says predictive historian Jiang Xueqin.
A US Iran ground invasion will fail, it will retreat from the Middle East
and Israel will conquer most of it.
Transcript
0:00Now, Professor Jiang Sha Quinn is of course asleep now, but earlier I
0:077 secondsinterviewed him on your behalf and I started by asking this Nostradamus who has become a viral historian,
0:1818 secondstotally viral, proactive history is now sweeping the world. And this professor
0:2525 secondsJiang agreed to come on the mother of all talk shows. I'm very glad to say and so will you be when you've heard this
0:3434 secondsinterview. I asked him for his thoughts on what was happening right now in the Middle East. This is what he had to say.
0:4242 secondsYeah. So right now the United States and Iran um are at war with each other and
0:5050 secondswhat I expect to happen is that the United States will launch a ground invasion at some point. In fact, there
0:5757 secondsare rumors that the 82nd Airborne Division um has been deployed. They've canceled their training and they have
1:051 minute, 5 secondsreceived their deployment orders. Those are just rumors that not confirmed. Uh but there's a lot of uh chatter and we
1:131 minute, 13 secondscan expect a ground invasion um at some point. Um I believe I predict that this
1:201 minute, 20 secondsground invasion will fail which will lead to the collapse of the American empire. Basically um the United States
1:281 minute, 28 secondswill retreat from the Middle East and Sencom central command
1:341 minute, 34 secondswill um be um absorbed into Israel. And
1:411 minute, 41 secondsso what will happen is then that Israel will achieve the greater Israel project.
1:461 minute, 46 secondsThe Israelis believe that the Middle East was promised to their ancestor Abraham by Yahweh uh uh their God. If
1:551 minute, 55 secondsyou look at a map of the Greater Israel project, um it extends from the Nile to Euphrates. It encompasses um Lebanon, Syria, parts of Turkey,
2:072 minutes, 7 secondsparts of S Saudi Arabia and parts of Egypt. meaning that regardless of how this war in Iran progresses
2:152 minutes, 15 secondsum Israel will continue to be aggressive. In fact, the former prime minister of Israel um Naftali Bennett
2:232 minutes, 23 secondshas said that uh Turkey will be the new Iran, meaning that after this war um against Iran is over, then Turkey will
2:322 minutes, 32 secondsbe the threat. And so we can expect that Israel will continue to be aggressive and eventually conquer most of the
2:412 minutes, 41 secondsMiddle East once this war in Iran uh concludes.
2:452 minutes, 45 secondsUm and then Israel will establish something called a Pax Judea. A Pax Judea is really the um empire
2:562 minutes, 56 secondsum a trading empire, financial empire, a techn technological empire based in Jerusalem. and they see it as fulfillment of biblical prophecy. Uh they want to rebuild Solomon's temple.
3:083 minutes, 8 secondsThat means that they will at some point destroy the Alaxic mosque. In fact, uh there are rumors that the Israelis have
3:173 minutes, 17 secondsshut down the alexic mosque and uh right now um they are uh and again these are
3:243 minutes, 24 secondsjust rumors not confirmed but people are people suspect that the Israelis are implanting explosives for control
3:323 minutes, 32 secondsdemolition so that they can blame a uh Iranian missile on the destruction of um
3:393 minutes, 39 secondsthe Actic Mosque which as we know is the third holiest site. in all of Islam. In fact, on YouTube,
3:473 minutes, 47 secondsthere's a rabbi who talks about this plan. He says that wouldn't it be wonderful if during a war an Iranian
3:533 minutes, 53 secondsmissile hit the Isaac moss and the Arabs and the Persians would go fight each other and those animals would kill each other. Those are those are his literal
4:014 minutes, 1 secondwords. Uh so uh we can also expect at some point that the Alex of Mos will be destroyed. So that's how I see this war
4:104 minutes, 10 secondsin uh the Middle East progressing in the next four or five years.
4:154 minutes, 15 secondsWell, there is uh an escatological flurry, a blizzard, a hail uh coming
4:224 minutes, 22 secondslike missiles uh everywhere. America seems to be in the grip of a of a kind of Old Testament uh frenzy and even
4:324 minutes, 32 secondsAmerican officials are talking in these apocalyptic terms. hurrying on Armageddon
4:404 minutes, 40 secondsuh implying not implying explicitly stating that uh killing Iranians will
4:484 minutes, 48 secondswill hurry up the return of Jesus to the world. Um scientific men like you and I
4:564 minutes, 56 secondsprobably don't have to spend uh too much time on this uh esquetology, but uh
5:035 minutes, 3 secondslet's uh talk about what it would mean in practice. Uh Netanyahu spoke this
5:095 minutes, 9 secondsvery day uh about a major surprise that he has coming for the Iranians which he
5:175 minutes, 17 secondssaid will completely destabilize their country. Now I mean it's thinly veiled.
5:245 minutes, 24 secondsI mean it's there's not exactly a burka on the meaning of that. It means either
5:305 minutes, 30 secondsground invasion or a resort to nuclear weapons. Uh let's start with the second
5:385 minutes, 38 secondshypothesis first. What would it mean if Israel launched a nuclear weapon at Iran?
5:465 minutes, 46 secondsRight. So the strategy is to use a tackler nuclear weapon against uh Iran's underground missile uh cities, missile
5:545 minutes, 54 secondsbases. Right now, uh, American air strikes, Israeli air strikes cannot penetrate underground and, um, uh, and
6:036 minutes, 3 secondsdestroy the capacity of the of Iranians to fire ballistic missiles and drones at the GCC and at Israel. And what experts
6:116 minutes, 11 secondssay is that attacking uh, nuclear strike will not destroy these cities, will not destroy these bases, but they will seal
6:186 minutes, 18 secondsoff the um, entrances and make them inhabitable, uh, make them useless basically. So um a tactical nuclear
6:276 minutes, 27 secondsstrike is definitely um part of the military strategies of the Israelis and
6:336 minutes, 33 secondsAmericans. I personally do not believe this is likely and um there are certain
6:406 minutes, 40 secondsreasons why I am not that convinced that they will in fact use a tackler nuclear
6:476 minutes, 47 secondsbomb. Um the first reason is this military military doctrine where militaries tend to be uh bureaucracies
6:556 minutes, 55 secondsvery strict ch um chain of command and in order for um the military bureaucracy to function you need a strict military
7:037 minutes, 3 secondsdoctrine a very an understanding of how to fight a war. Now um Israel has something called exception option. The
7:117 minutes, 11 secondsidea is that if the very existence of Israel is threatened at any point then um Israel will launch all its nuclear
7:207 minutes, 20 secondsarsenal and it could be and and people argue about how many nukes it has like 90 90 to 300. Okay, but Israel would
7:277 minutes, 27 secondslaunch these weapons and nuke all the all the world cities. Okay, and this called assumption option where Israel is not uh retaliating but Israel is just destroying the world. So in other words,
7:377 minutes, 37 secondsuh, Israel has a strategic nuclear arsenal and not a tactical nuclear arsenal. And it's actually not that easy
7:447 minutes, 44 secondsto transfer from a strategic nuclear arsenal into a tactical nuclear arsenal.
7:507 minutes, 50 secondsSo that's one major limitation uh to this um idea. The second thing is that
7:587 minutes, 58 secondsum we assume that the Israelis and Americans are going to go into Iran and they want to win this war. whatever
8:058 minutes, 5 secondswinning uh means for them. They have not actually defined when what meaning means. Um but you know if we look at
8:128 minutes, 12 secondsesquetology if we think that um in fact that Israel and America are conducting
8:198 minutes, 19 secondsthis war in order to bring about the return of Jesus which is what many American uh soldiers believe then uh the
8:278 minutes, 27 secondsesquetology requires America to lose this war. Um because if America were to lose this war, then Israel would emerge as a dominant nation in the Middle East.
8:388 minutes, 38 secondsSo Israel doesn't need to beat Iran.
8:428 minutes, 42 secondsIsrael just needs America and Iran to destroy each other. And so for that to happen, you would want a ground
8:498 minutes, 49 secondsinvasion. So um Israel wants to position America so that it is forced into a uh
8:578 minutes, 57 secondsground invasion. So, I think a much more um reasonable option would be to send in
9:049 minutes, 4 secondslimited ground troops, perhaps um the 82nd Airborne Division to try to capture a nuclear site to decapitate Tran. Uh
9:119 minutes, 11 secondsI'm not quite sure what they have in mind, but again, I'm not actually con I am not at all convinced that a nuclear option is um on the table. The third
9:209 minutes, 20 secondsproblem is Russia. So um as we Washington Post has reported that Russia is providing uh targeting intelligence
9:289 minutes, 28 secondsto Iranians which is what exactly what US and NATO did in Ukraine against Russia. So it's almost like payback for
9:369 minutes, 36 secondsUkraine. Sergey Lavough the foreign minister of Russia had said that um Russia considers Iran an indispensable
9:449 minutes, 44 secondsally. So I think that back doors Russia and Putin have told the Americans and
9:529 minutes, 52 secondsthe Israelis to watch it like don't go too far. Uh don't move too fast up the escalation ladder. Um and at some point
10:0010 minutesum I predict that Putin will put Iran under the Russian nuclear umbrella,
10:0610 minutes, 6 secondsmeaning that any nuclear weapon used uh in Iran will be considered a direct attack against Russia and Russia will
10:1310 minutes, 13 secondsrespond accordingly. Well, you'll have successfully chilled the blood of most of the audience uh professor. Uh and
10:2110 minutes, 21 secondsthat's uh of course inevitable given the gravity of your message. Uh so let's
10:2810 minutes, 28 secondslook at that first hypothesis. Then no nuclear attack but a ground attack. Now
10:3510 minutes, 35 secondsIran is 93 million people. Uh the American intelligence agencies themselves are reporting that no
10:4310 minutes, 43 secondssignificant breach exists in Iran. The much vaunted liberal classes,
10:5010 minutes, 50 secondspro-American liberal classes in Iran are really limited to the uh to the vestibule, the foyer of the
11:0011 minutesintercontinental hotel in Thran. And in any case, according to the propaganda,
11:0611 minutes, 6 secondsuh thousands of those were killed by the Iranian uh government's forces uh only a
11:1311 minutes, 13 secondscouple of months ago. So we may surmise that the Iranian people are uh to a very
11:2011 minutes, 20 secondssignificant extent united in the face of this enormous uh aggression. So you drop
11:2911 minutes, 29 secondsby parachute the 82nd airborne into a 93 million population with a mountainous and vast territory. What happens next?
11:4211 minutes, 42 secondsRight. So I I don't think that they actually do that either. Uh because as you point out uh parachuting any amount
11:5011 minutes, 50 secondsof soldiers into the middle of Iran is just pure suicide. uh they are bound to be either killed or captured in the
11:5811 minutes, 58 secondsprocess which would be completely humiliating for Trump and Netanyahu. Um you're actually right in that uh Iran is much more unified than uh ever before.
12:1112 minutes, 11 secondsSo in June there was a 12-day war and in the first few days Israel was very successful in decapitating the regime.
12:1912 minutes, 19 secondsum a lot of generals, a lot of scientists, a lot of high officials of the of the Iranian government were being
12:2512 minutes, 25 secondstargeted and were being killed. But that attack expended a lot of Israeli
12:3112 minutes, 31 secondsresources in terrain. Um they had spent years developing intelligence uh human
12:3812 minutes, 38 secondsintelligence networks that were uncovered because of this 12 12- day war. Also because of the indiscriminate
12:4612 minutes, 46 secondskilling during the 12- day war, the Iranians struck back hard against Israelis and it really uh unified the
12:5312 minutes, 53 secondspeople. The the Iranian uh government um was much more resilient and much more resolved than Israelis predicted. They
13:0113 minutes, 1 secondactually believed that um air strike decapitation would uh basically destroy the government as so it was a it were a
13:1013 minutes, 10 secondshouse of cards. you ma you for fast forward to January uh where there were these mass protests um across the
13:1713 minutes, 17 secondscountry and we know um that this is a part of the of the classic color revolution playbook where Mossad agents were embedded among the protesters. Many
13:2713 minutes, 27 secondsof these protesters were paid agents and cyber terrorists uh developed by the Israeli um over a number of years. But
13:3613 minutes, 36 secondsthe uh Iranians were able to close out the internet and uh jam Starlink and discover these cells. So another way
13:4513 minutes, 45 secondssaying this is that the Israelis um had spent years in building up um networks
13:5213 minutes, 52 secondsthroughout Iran that they could use for this war. But because of the 12- day war, because of generic protests, these networks have been destroyed. So that
14:0114 minutes, 1 secondthe government in Iran is much more unified uh much more coherent than ever before. And that presents a problem for
14:0814 minutes, 8 secondsground in for ground invasion because um it is the American military doctrine to use as many proxies as possible. Now, a
14:1814 minutes, 18 secondsfew days ago, there was talk of um the Americans bring the Kurds into the war.
14:2414 minutes, 24 secondsum and from Iraq. There's also talk of bringing these Sunni ISIS insurgents by Iraq into the war. And as of today, we
14:3414 minutes, 34 secondsdiscovered that the Kurds have refused this American offer to join the war. And if America were to launch a ground invasion, um it would have to do it do
14:4314 minutes, 43 secondsso by itself. And quite honestly, I would not know how it would actually launch the ground invasion. Uh for a ground invasion to work properly, they
14:5114 minutes, 51 secondsneed to mass forces. That means bringing at least half a million soldiers into the Middle East and uh preparing them
14:5914 minutes, 59 secondsfor a full-scale ground invasion uh through either Pakistan or through Iraq.
15:0515 minutes, 5 secondsAnd right now the GCC countries are being bombarded by drones and ballistic missiles. And so it' be very hard for
15:1415 minutes, 14 secondstroops to be um prepared and be to be staged properly. So the a ground
15:2015 minutes, 20 secondsinvasion is uh part of a plan. Um but I don't really know the specifics of how they would accomplish such a ground invasion.
15:2815 minutes, 28 secondsAnd of course uh Pakistan uh it showing all the signs of being more likely to intervene if they intervened on the side
15:3715 minutes, 37 secondsof Iran rather than on the side of the United States. Certainly if you judged by their uh rhetoric. Uh now, professor,
15:4615 minutes, 46 secondswe already know despite the censorship and selfcensorship involved that this is
15:5315 minutes, 53 secondsnot a one-sided war uh that uh the uh Iranian ballistic, hypersonic, and even
16:0216 minutes, 2 secondsdrone response is taking a severe toll uh on cities like Tel Aviv and Hifa. Uh
16:1116 minutes, 11 secondswhat do you estimate? How would you calibrate the level of damage on the Israeli side?
16:1816 minutes, 18 secondsRight. So, um the main lesson that the Israelis learned from the 12-day war is to censor its own people to make sure
16:2616 minutes, 26 secondsthat this footage of destruction will not come out and be um and and be made
16:3216 minutes, 32 secondsuh public around the the world. Um so I think that Israel is far more resilient
16:3916 minutes, 39 secondsthan people uh believe. Yes, a lot of people are leaving Israel. Yes, the Iranians are doing a lot of damage. But the Israelis are an es esqueological
16:4816 minutes, 48 secondspeople. They really do believe that this is the end times. Um and they have been um extremely fanatical ever since October 7th. So I think that the Israeli people themselves are much more unified,
16:5916 minutes, 59 secondsmuch more determined than people assume.
17:0317 minutes, 3 secondsEven though I assume that the damage to Tel Aviv is just vast. Um the real issue
17:1017 minutes, 10 secondsare the GCC countries. Uh the GCC countries are actually vulnerable much more vulnerable than people previously
17:1717 minutes, 17 secondsimagined. So the GCC countries before thought that you know we are neutral uh we are Muslim. So if there's a war to
17:2617 minutes, 26 secondsbreak up between uh Iran and um Israel then we'll be neutral and uh Iran will
17:3317 minutes, 33 secondsleave us alone. The problem is that Iran recognizes that um if America attacks us, then we need to be able to defend
17:4317 minutes, 43 secondsourselves. And the American military is ultimately supported by the GCC countries because it's the GCC countries
17:5117 minutes, 51 secondsthat um pay for the weapon systems that house um American soldiers and that uh
17:5817 minutes, 58 secondsallow American air force to use its airspace to strike Iran. So um the Iranians are very smart in that the
18:0618 minutes, 6 secondsfirst two things that they did um after war started was one facto close off the street of hummus uh thus strangling the
18:1518 minutes, 15 secondsglobal economy and then launching drone strikes against the GCC uh nations. Now
18:2218 minutes, 22 secondsthese drone strikes are truly controversial um and there's a lot of debate about them. So for for example um at first it
18:3118 minutes, 31 secondswas reported that the Iranians uh used a drone to hit a Saudi Aramco oil facility thus damaging the energy infrastructure
18:4018 minutes, 40 secondsof Saudi Arabia and that's grounds for um the declaration of war. But later it was reported that actually the storm
18:4818 minutes, 48 secondscame from the west in Lebanon rather from the east. And the Iranians actually denied this saying that um we want to
18:5718 minutes, 57 secondsprotect our oil facilities just as much as you want to protect your oil facilities. So why would we give you a reason to come attack our oil facilities? Right? We're better off
19:0519 minutes, 5 secondsattacking US bases. We're better off attacking the the um fifth fleet in Bahan. we won't waste our precious ammunition um targeting uh oil fields.
19:1619 minutes, 16 secondsUm and also Taro Carlson on his show uh told us that he was told by the Qataris
19:2319 minutes, 23 secondsthat they had arrested two MSAD agents suspected of infiltrating uh Qatar in order to commit false flag sabotage
19:3219 minutes, 32 secondsoperations. Um and the Qatar have denied this report, but we can suspect that this is true because it really is um the
19:4119 minutes, 41 secondsMossad MO. So um the GCC nations are the ones that are in real trouble because of this war.
Not only because the Iranians um want to um um destroy the American
military's capacity to uh to supply ammunition, but also because the Israelis want to drag the GCC nations into this war and create a regional configuration, especially Saudi Arabia because remember in the Greater Israel project scheme, eventually uh Israel needs to take on Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey. So why not just drag Saudi Arabia into this war and have Iran destroy Saudi Arabia uh in order to lessen the conflict later on? And yet, professor uh it's raining oil in Thran today and I dare say also in Hifa because for the first time in the war and it's a war that's lasted a whole week which is a long time by today's standards uh the uh oil depots of Iran were apparently completely destroyed and the streets the very streets of Thran are on fire in retali ation. Uh the major uh oil depots for Israel in the city of Hifa uh have been struck and are also on fire. Uh so we're now in for a tit for tat on destroying oil production in those circumstances. uh with oil heading for $150 a barrel, maybe even $200 a barrel, ineluctibly, if there are more attacks on Iran's oil infrastructure, the Iranians will strike uh the uh Arabian side of the Persian Gulf to create uh not $200 a barrel, but no no price per barrel at all. you'd be putting a bottle of oil in the Loura.
Yeah, absolutely. So, what we're seeing is the escalation ladder um climbing, right? So, at first I think both all sides decided to focus on military targets and now what they're doing is they're switching to soft targets uh that do economic damage. So the Americans um struck a dissalination plant in Iran and so now thousands of Iranians will not have access to fresh water and uh the Iranians responded by targeting a dis dissalination plant in Bahan. Okay. So we have to understand that this is now total war meaning that to destroy each other they need to destroy each other's economies.
22:3022 minutes, 30 secondsUm and this marks um a new world. uh we can't possibly return to the old world where you could access energy for cheap.
22:4022 minutes, 40 secondsUm in the future, and I'm talking about maybe in a year or two, every nation will have to engage in massive de-industrialization
22:4922 minutes, 49 secondsuh because they can no longer access cheap oil. Uh more and more nations will start to engage in mercantileism. Um and they need they need to create their own
22:5822 minutes, 58 secondsself-sufficient supply chains. And the nation that is in most dire need right now is actually Japan because Japan is
23:0523 minutes, 5 secondsan extremely wealthy country but it's completely dependent on global supply chains. Um it receives about 75% of its
23:1423 minutes, 14 secondsoil from the shirt of Humus and Prime Minister Takayachi in a speech said that in 78 months Japan will run out of oil
23:2123 minutes, 21 secondsand energy um thus threatening its entire economy. So um the ultimate re
23:2923 minutes, 29 secondsreverberations the consequences of what's happening will be felt only a few weeks from now but we should expect a um
23:3923 minutes, 39 secondsmassive global depression um to appear on the horizon very soon and basically
23:4623 minutes, 46 secondsthe old world order of global trade uh is dead it and it will never return in our lifetimes. That's the reality we're
23:5423 minutes, 54 secondsfacing right now. Now, as Sherlock Holmes might put it, the shoe that hasn't dropped in your discourse thus
24:0124 minutes, 1 secondfar is China. Uh, China has uh strategic relations with Iran. Uh, in fact, the
24:1124 minutes, 11 secondsStrait of Hormos is not closed, but it is gated and the Chinese oil tankers are
24:1824 minutes, 18 secondsof course being allowed through the gate. China is a global superpower uh the greatest manufacturing power on the
24:2824 minutes, 28 secondsearth. So in uh deindustrializing west uh China's industrial power uh
24:3724 minutes, 37 secondswould uh would would see it through. Uh but that's of course an invitation uh for war to be waged against China.
24:4724 minutes, 47 secondsMany people believe that the attack on Iran, indeed even the attack on Russia
24:5424 minutes, 54 secondsthrough Ukraine uh are mere precursors from the real uh Armageddon if I can put
25:0225 minutes, 2 secondsit that way, a US China conflict. How do you feel about that? I think over the next two months, two to three months,
25:1125 minutes, 11 secondspeople's understanding of China,
25:1325 minutes, 13 secondspeople's understanding of how the world works will radically shift. In um uh at the end of this month, Trump is
25:2025 minutes, 20 secondsscheduled for a state visit to Beijing and this is his first state visit in a second term. And um I don't think a
25:3025 minutes, 30 secondssitting American president has visited China in the past eight years. So this is a very big deal. And in fact, this meeting at the end of the month is just one of three planned meetings this year.
25:4225 minutes, 42 secondsAnd the reason why this is happening is that China and America plan a reproachment. They plan a a grand
25:4925 minutes, 49 secondsbargain to reset the international order. And the reason why is that there are two nations that have benefit the
25:5625 minutes, 56 secondsmost from globalization. They are the United States and they are China. They are symbiotic. They are codependent.
26:0426 minutes, 4 secondsSo um America has its market and China has um a manufacturing uh export economy
26:1226 minutes, 12 secondsand China doesn't have a domestic uh consumer base. So China is completely reliant on on exports and it imports
26:2026 minutes, 20 secondsresources as primarily energy and food in order to feed its manufacturing base.
26:2726 minutes, 27 secondsSo, it is in China's best interest to come to an agreement arrangement with America as soon as possible. And even
26:3526 minutes, 35 secondsthough you could make the argument that Trump's actions in Venezuela, Trump's actions in Iran are to strangle the
26:4226 minutes, 42 secondsChinese economy, I I think that we can test this hypothesis um in a month or two when Trump and uh
26:5126 minutes, 51 secondsCE meet and come to a grand bargain. I think people again will be surprised and shocked by what will happen. It is
26:5926 minutes, 59 secondsentirely possible that China agrees to buy American oil rather than Iranian
27:0527 minutes, 5 secondsoil. Um it is entirely right now it's not it's China imports a lot of energy needs from the Middle East Qatar uh
27:1427 minutes, 14 secondsespecially and this war uh in the Middle East is not going to go away and China needs to meet its energy needs. China
27:2227 minutes, 22 secondsimports 75% of its oil and 60% of its energy supply comes from the Middle East. So I would not be surprised if
27:3127 minutes, 31 secondsTrump and China were to come an agreement where China becomes uh America's um energy consumer.
27:4027 minutes, 40 secondsNow uh let's h go back to the original uh for the last question professor and
27:4627 minutes, 46 secondsI'm grateful for your time. Uh is there an offramp anywhere that can stop this catastrophe,
27:5727 minutes, 57 secondsthat can stop this hurtling uh towards the end of times in the Middle East.
28:0428 minutes, 4 secondsCould Trump declare victory in some bogus way uh and uh and and pack it up?
28:1228 minutes, 12 secondsSo we are in a situation because United States presented Iran with three impossible demands. These three impossible demands are zero uranium
28:2128 minutes, 21 secondsenrichment even for civil purposes um to abandon its proxies in the Middle East, the Houthis, Hezbollah, the Shia
28:3028 minutes, 30 secondsthe Shia militias in Iraq, Hamas and to end or drastically reduce its ballistics missiles program. Okay, so these are
28:3928 minutes, 39 secondsthree impossible demands because basically what America says is that if you give up the right to defend yourself, we might not attack you. Oh,
28:4728 minutes, 47 secondsand by the way, we're not going to lift sanctions. So, we're still going to strengthen you economically, uh, but um,
28:5428 minutes, 54 secondswe might be nice to you if you, uh, to our demands. So, these are impossible demands. And it was clear at that point
29:0129 minutes, 1 secondthat, um, the Americans were looking for a pretext to attack Iran. Trump's envoys in these negotiations were Steve Wikov
29:1029 minutes, 10 secondsand Jared Kushner. And these are two ardent Zionists um, who are close to Netanyahu. And we all know that Netanyahu wanted a war.
29:2029 minutes, 20 secondsSteve Wickoff during the negotiations went on TV and said that oh the Iranians are like one or two weeks away from weapons grade uranium arrangement.
29:3029 minutes, 30 secondsBasically saying that the Iranians are negotiating negotiating in bad faith.
29:3429 minutes, 34 secondsOkay. So the Americans did everything possible to make sure that the Iranians could not agree to peace and they were just looking for a pretext for war.
29:4529 minutes, 45 secondsNonetheless,
29:4729 minutes, 47 secondsum, a few hours before the Israelis actually attacked Iran, the Omani foreign minister, the Omanis were the
29:5629 minutes, 56 secondsones who uh were mediating the the uh negotiations went on TV and said that
30:0430 minutes, 4 secondsthe Iranians had compromised. The Iranians had agreed to zero uranium enrichment even for civil purposes,
30:1230 minutes, 12 secondswhich before was a red line. And he also said that the Iranians were willing to negotiate uh with regard to their proxies as well as to to their ballistic
30:2130 minutes, 21 secondsmissiles program. And then what happened a few hours later? Well, the Americans uh and Israelis killed their supreme leader. Okay. So another way of saying
30:3030 minutes, 30 secondsthis is that for whatever reason, and we can argue about what the reasons are,
30:3430 minutes, 34 secondsthe Americans and the Israelis are intent on war. And um the reason why
30:4230 minutes, 42 secondsthey have not articulated a strategy and a reason and a purpose is they want to maintain maximum flexibility which means
30:4930 minutes, 49 secondsthat they want to destroy Iran's capacity be to be a nation state. They want to bomb Iran back to the stone age.
30:5930 minutes, 59 secondsThey want to divide Iran into ethnic enclaves that will be divided and ruled by Israel. And that's the ultimate
31:0731 minutes, 7 secondspurpose of this war. That's why the Americans are now targeting the dalination plants um and that's why
31:1431 minutes, 14 secondsthey're targeting um uh Iran's energy infrastructure. Right? So from the American perspective, they want to
31:2331 minutes, 23 secondsdestroy Iran and the Iranians recognize this and that's why the Iranians have said that we will fight to the bitter
31:3031 minutes, 30 secondsend. So yeah, so maybe um there will be some mediation, maybe the GCC nations,
31:3631 minutes, 36 secondsmaybe others like China will try to help negotiate a peace, but for whatever reason, the Americans are set on the destruction of Iran.
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[미국–이란 전쟁 논쟁: 버니 샌더스와 이란인 전문가 3인 토론> - YouTube
'Trump Is Desperately Without..': Bernie Sanders In Explosive Debate With Experts On Iran War, World - YouTube
'Trump Is Desperately Without..': Bernie Sanders In Explosive Debate With Experts On Iran War, World
Hook Global
Mar 13, 2026
US-Iran War: US Senator Bernie Sanders delivered a fiery critique of U.S. President Donald Trump’s handling of the Iran war during an intense discussion with policy experts, warning that the escalating conflict in the Middle East could have devastating global consequences.
In the heated exchange, Sanders argued that Trump is “desperately without” a clear strategy, raising concerns about the administration’s approach to the growing confrontation with Iran. The Vermont senator questioned the long-term objectives of the war and warned that the United States could be drawn deeper into a dangerous regional conflict.
Sanders also pressed experts on the human, economic, and geopolitical risks of continued escalation, including the threat to civilians, instability across the Middle East, and the potential impact on global energy markets.
The debate highlighted sharp divisions over U.S. foreign policy, military strategy, and the lack of a defined endgame in the Iran conflict, as tensions continue to rise across the region. Watch the full debate as Bernie Sanders clashes with experts over Trump’s Iran war strategy and the future of U.S. involvement in the Middle East.
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Transcript
What role does Israel have in all of this? Who's calling the tunes here?
Is it Trump or Netanyahu? What Trump is doing is completely undermining international law. Not only the Constitution of the United States, which says it is Congress that determines whether we go to war or not.
0:1717 secondsThe Iranians are trying to do exactly the opposite. They're trying to squeeze the international economy, the oil markets, in order to get gas prices,
0:2525 secondsinflation up in this country so that they pressure Trump to stop this war.
0:2929 secondsAnd Trump is desperately without a strategy trying to turn this into a victory before that happens.
0:3434 secondsUh what Trump is doing is giving a green light to any dictator in the world, any government in the world that wants to go to war and use the word dehumanizing,
0:4444 secondsyou know, bombing schools, really killing people you're negotiating with,
0:4949 secondsreally is that what this country is about? I think it's not. And I think the American people understand that that is not.
0:5656 secondsGood morning everybody and thanks so much for joining us in a very very difficult moment uh for the United
1:041 minute, 4 secondsStates and the world. Uh today we are very pleased uh to have with us uh three very knowledgeable people on Iran,
1:151 minute, 15 secondspeople who are Iranian uh who are going to discuss kind of a brief history of how we got to where we
1:221 minute, 22 secondsare uh what is happening now and maybe what will happen in the future.
I am very delighted to have with us Trita Parcy who is the executive vice
president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and founder of the National Iranian American Council. Trina, thanks so much for being with us.
Nagar Modiv Moravi who is a journalist and a political analyst, head of the Iran podcast and senior fellow at the center for international policy. Thank you so much for being with us. Thank you. Great to be here.
and Cena Tusi, senior research analyst at the Center for International Policy, specializing in Iran's nuclear program, anctions, and the history of US uh Iranian negotiations. Thank you very much. Thanks for having me.
All right. There's a lot uh to be discussed uh but I want to uh put it into a broader context than we usually do in the United States.
Iran is a complicated country and it's easier to say, well, Iran's an authoritarian society. It is. But on the
2:282 minutes, 28 secondsother hand, what we have seen in the last few years is people out on the streets fighting for women's rights.
2:342 minutes, 34 secondsCorrect. We have seen trade unions fighting for uh better wages. There are
2:412 minutes, 41 secondselections, not quite free elections, but there are elections and debates. Not quite Saudi Arabia, but it is it is a a
2:502 minutes, 50 secondsa a unique type of authoritarianism if you like. Who wants to say a little bit of a a word about the nature of Iranian society?
3:003 minutesI'll go after you.
3:023 minutes, 2 secondsJust just to add to what you were saying. Yes. Certainly not a monolith,
3:053 minutes, 5 secondsnot a one-man show or a few men show as we sometimes see it portrayed from the west. um different various movements
3:133 minutes, 13 secondscivil society a strong women's movement as you said the woman life freedom movement and the protest that we saw a few years ago [clears throat] 2022
3:213 minutes, 21 secondsideology in opposition to the government yes to the system absolutely I mean there's even a debate within the system you have
3:293 minutes, 29 secondsmore moderates within that system you have reformists you have more hardline or conservatives um and it's uh you know it's sort of a mix of all of these as
3:383 minutes, 38 secondsyou said it's authoritarian as is everybody else in in that neighborhood.
3:423 minutes, 42 secondsUm, but there's also sort of these debates and these this push and pull within the society and uh it's just important to understand the nuances and the complexities.
3:533 minutes, 53 secondsNar is absolutely right and I think it's important to recognize that there has been a struggle for democracy in Iran
4:014 minutes, 1 secondgoing on for more than 100 years. uh and that that struggle has been seeking to achieve it from within by the people
4:074 minutes, 7 secondsthemselves and those differences between different factions etc are there but there has been a very explicit effort by
4:154 minutes, 15 secondsthose who want to have war to portray the country as if there are no nuances there. Make it as black and white as possible. There's no such thing as
4:234 minutes, 23 secondsmoderate. There's no differences of opinion within the system because it's that black and white simplified picture you need if you want to wage war.
4:314 minutes, 31 secondsRight. And I would add that those are the voices that are most often ignored in Washington's debates. Like there is a
4:394 minutes, 39 secondspart of the Iranian opposition, I would argue the most homegrown, organic,
4:434 minutes, 43 secondsgrassroots part of the opposition within the country that has been opposed both to the authoritarianism of the Islamic Republic as well as foreign intervention
4:504 minutes, 50 secondsand military intervention. And those are voices that have led movements in Iran and organized people, prominent labor unions, independent labor unions. And
4:584 minutes, 58 secondssadly, those aren't the voices that are amplified here. amplified would be an exaggeration virtually unheard of here.
5:045 minutes, 4 secondsI mean, it's just easy to say uh Iran authoritarian end of discussion, but it is a very different type society in Saudi Arabia and many of the other
5:125 minutes, 12 secondscountries. All right, take us back 75 years again to a part of history that I suspect many Americans don't know what happened in 1953.
5:225 minutes, 22 secondsIran was an embryotic democracy. It had a parliament that elected a prime minister. People participated in those
5:295 minutes, 29 secondselections. Now, that prime minister had the audacity of wanting to have Iran's oil revenue, at least 50% of it,
5:375 minutes, 37 secondsactually go back to the Iranian people. The Brits, extremely radical.
5:425 minutes, 42 secondsThe Brits at the time at the time were pumping out Iranian oil and keeping all of the revenue for themselves.
5:485 minutes, 48 secondsThe Brits did not accept 50%. They counted, I believe, with only allowing Iran to to receive 5 to 10%. Uh, that didn't work because Madak stood firm.
5:585 minutes, 58 secondsAnd this is during the era of decolonization and independence movements throughout the world. Um, and the Brits tried very hard to convince
6:066 minutes, 6 secondsthe United States that you need to get rid of Mosadak. At first, they were unsuccessful until they figured out that magical argument that always worked with the United States during the Cold War.
6:166 minutes, 16 secondsThey couldn't say that Musadak was a communist. Instead, they said he may turn communist and as a result, he needs
6:246 minutes, 24 secondsto be removed. And eventually the CIA and the British intelligence removed them, reinstalled the Shaw as the sole decision they all let everybody hear. So back in 1953,
6:366 minutes, 36 secondsIran was a fledgling democracy. They elected a democratic leader who thought maybe it would be a good idea for the
6:436 minutes, 43 secondsprofits from Iranian oil to stay in Iran and he was overthrown. Right. There was a coup led by Britain with the help of the American CIA. That was the case.
6:526 minutes, 52 secondsCorrect. And then what happened after that?
6:566 minutes, 56 secondsWell, that I would say is I mean historians say that's one of the foundations of what led to the 1979 revolution. I mean the anti-Americanness
7:047 minutes, 4 secondsthat is very much you know within all political factions of the Iranian society from the left to the right the Islamist Islamic Republic is shared and
7:127 minutes, 12 secondsit all goes back to 1953 to the coup the successful coup which was by the way used as a blueprint for other coups that
7:197 minutes, 19 secondsthe CIA launched across the world and uh the humiliation also that came for that the audacity that you want the revenue
7:277 minutes, 27 secondsfrom your own natural resource to go to your own people um and the fact that the Britain and the US were able to do that
7:347 minutes, 34 secondsand then deny it also for many many years. It was denied the information wasn't declassified and they were just call calling Iranians delusional and I
7:427 minutes, 42 secondswould point this to something else many Americans may not know everyone's heard of the hostage crisis but one of the reasons or the key reason those
7:507 minutes, 50 secondsrevolutionary students went into the US embassy was because they thought maybe the CIA from this very embassy is going to launch another coup and take over
7:587 minutes, 58 secondsthis revolution that is just winning in the country. So this all at least in the uh US Iran relationship the core of this always goes back to 1953 for Iranians.
8:108 minutes, 10 secondsSo you want to add anything to that?
8:118 minutes, 11 secondsYeah, I would say you know in the broader historical context I mean the Musat coup led to 25 years of a dictatorship under the US backed Shaw it
8:198 minutes, 19 secondswasn't a black and white period especially in retrospect for many Iranians but he was it was a very authoritarian regime backed by the United States and the broader historical
8:278 minutes, 27 secondslandscape that led to the 1979 revolution was really you know over a century two centuries of colonialism seeding territory that many other
8:358 minutes, 35 secondscountries in the global south experience to set the grounds for this revolution and this kind of strong fight for sovereignty that Iran has been fighting and independence for the past many decades.
8:448 minutes, 44 secondsTalk a little bit about life in Iran under the sha. What was that about?
8:508 minutes, 50 secondsFrom a social standpoint, Iran was much more free than it is today. Socially was really completely open. Uh but
8:588 minutes, 58 secondspolitically it was still very very repressive. the power was entirely in the hands of the sha unlike the current system in which the power is dispersed
9:069 minutes, 6 secondsthroughout an entire system which actually makes it much more resilient much more difficult to uh get rid of uh internally or externally whereas all of
9:159 minutes, 15 secondsthe decision-m ultimately was in the hands of the sha uh I remember an Israeli um diplomat was stationed in Iran at the time told me that three
9:249 minutes, 24 secondsIranian generals did not dare to call for a meeting just to discuss what they would have for lunch next week out of a fear that the Iranian secret service would believe that they were plotting to
9:329 minutes, 32 secondsdo a coup against Ashawa. So it was much more of that type of an East German type of a um uh authoritarian state but at
9:419 minutes, 41 secondsthe same time socially was completely free and open compared to what it is today. Today it is very repressive uh socially uh less so perhaps in some
9:509 minutes, 50 secondsaspects because the victories of the Masamini protest actually are very real in terms of the hijab but on the broader
9:579 minutes, 57 secondssense still very repressive and then politically it is still extremely repressive but nevertheless with a hybrid in which there are groupings
10:0510 minutes, 5 secondsthere are elections not entirely free elections in any way shape or form and at the same time I think we have to say a lot of Iranians have lost faith in
10:1310 minutes, 13 secondsthat process the belief belief that change could come from the system from within the system from those elections have been lost because they have seen
10:2210 minutes, 22 secondsthat it has not delivered in the last 20 years that however does not mean that the only alternative is for the United States to bomb the country let's get that
10:3010 minutes, 30 secondsokay all right 53 a coup of the sha
10:3710 minutes, 37 secondsIslamic revolution in 79 uh and uh where we are today And all
10:4610 minutes, 46 secondsright, what why did this war take place? What's the origins? What do you think?
10:5410 minutes, 54 secondsI mean, it's hard. Depends on who you ask, who you listen to, on which day it has been. The reasoning has been anywhere from the nuclear program, which
11:0211 minutes, 2 secondswas supposedly obliterated last June. I mean, that statement still exists on the White House website. I checked today. The nuclear program was obliterated.
11:1011 minutes, 10 secondsAnyone who says otherwise is fake news. That's the statement. Um, but that's why we went into this war.
11:1711 minutes, 17 secondsI guess that was one of the reasons. Um, Iran's missile programs, uh, potentially being a threat to the US,
11:2511 minutes, 25 secondswhich they can't reach. Uh, democracy or freedom, freedom for the Iranian people is something that's been mentioned. I,
11:3311 minutes, 33 secondsyou know, I haven't seen any kind of help or support or freedom coming from these bombs that are falling on civilian infrastructure
11:4111 minutes, 41 secondsof Iran, right? elected next leader specifically mentioned who he doesn't want which happened to be I think the last vote for that person and now we
11:4811 minutes, 48 secondshave that person as the next supreme leader of Iran so I think the the reasoning just doesn't make sense from the viewpoint of the US it's an
11:5611 minutes, 56 secondsunpopular war as we know in the America in the US American society there's no appetite for these endless wars in the Middle East the reason is people see
12:0412 minutes, 4 secondsthere have been failures trillion dollar wars American blood and treasure loss and things didn't get better I mean look at Afghanistan Women's rights was one of the promises of the war in Afghanistan.
12:1512 minutes, 15 secondsAnd the status of women's and girls in Afghanistan is arguably worse than it was before the US invasion. Same in Iraq, Syria, Libya. This is something I
12:2412 minutes, 24 secondsthink Americans understand how they didn't help. They essentially did more harm. And those societies also understand and the Iranians also
12:3112 minutes, 31 secondsunderstand. Iran is situated between Afghanistan and Iraq. They look to the neighbors and I would say majority of Iranians are afraid of the situation
12:3912 minutes, 39 secondswhich is not something they want. They want change in the status quo. But things can also get worse if you turn out to be the next Libya, for example.
12:4812 minutes, 48 secondsAll right. So, uh, what role does Israel have in all of this? Who's calling the tunes here?
12:5512 minutes, 55 secondsIs it Trump or Netanyahu? Yeah, it really goes back to Trump's first term as well with, you know, leaving the Iran
13:0213 minutes, 2 secondsnuclear deal at the calling of Netanyahu and, you know, some of Trump's biggest donors like Sheldon Adlesen, who's a top
13:0913 minutes, 9 secondsTrump's donor in 2016. Um, and Trump, I think, you know, in retrospect, Iran will shape largely on his legacy that he
13:1713 minutes, 17 secondskilled this nuclear deal trying to kill Obama's signature foreign policy achievement. He went lock step with Netanyahu and kind of prominent hardline
13:2613 minutes, 26 secondspro-Israel voices in America in this idea that they can basically do regime change and it'll be low cost. And I
13:3413 minutes, 34 secondsthink Trump was led to believe in the past couple years that the Iranian regime is brittle, that one more push and it'll collapse. And that was
13:4113 minutes, 41 secondsarguably, you know, it's now been proven to be misguided and there it's a huge cost now. The straight of Hormuz is closed. There's US bases throughout the
13:4913 minutes, 49 secondsregion have been targeted. Israel is being hit hard and the regime is not showing signs of collapse and the US has now entered this quagmire.
13:5713 minutes, 57 secondsI could add one thing there. I think it's really important to recognize the administration has given so many different justifications. It's constantly changing his story. It
14:0514 minutes, 5 secondsdoesn't have a story at the end of the day. But one of the stories that they put out there is to say what Marco Rubio said, which is that the reason why there
14:1314 minutes, 13 secondswas an imminent threat was because Israel was about to attack Iran and the US side believed that Iran would then retaliate against the United States and
14:2114 minutes, 21 secondsas a result the US had no choice apparently to attack Iran where reality it did have a choice. The choice would have been to make sure that Israel did
14:2914 minutes, 29 secondsnot endanger US troops instead of letting the Israelis decide when the United States goes to war. So there's so
14:3714 minutes, 37 secondsmany conflicting stories that have been put out there. Not a single one of them have been convincing. In reality, there was no imminent threat. It's not Iran
14:4414 minutes, 44 secondsthat put all of its navy outside of the shores of the United States. It's Trump that put one-third of its navy of the United States's navy in the Persian Gulf in the Arabian Sea.
14:5614 minutes, 56 secondsUm I think so I speak for myself not for you. Uh that a lot of
15:0415 minutes, 4 secondsuh US Middle East policy is dictated by Israel.
15:0915 minutes, 9 secondsUh that I think uh Rubio probably had it right. Uh that it was Israel who decided they wanted to go to war. And after 40
15:1815 minutes, 18 secondsyears of wanting to see this, Netanyahu finally got his wish. I mean, Netanyahu has wanted this for 40 years. Netanyahu
15:2615 minutes, 26 secondswas the guy that told us, "Urge the United States to get involved in Iraq. There'll be clean and and easy war."
15:3315 minutes, 33 secondsWhat is, if that is true, what is Israel's goal? What what do they want by
15:4015 minutes, 40 secondsnot only uh decimating the leadership in uh Iran, not only attacking the
15:4715 minutes, 47 secondsinfrastructure, but also going into Lebanon as well. I think Lebanon is not getting a lot of attention, but uh I saw
15:5415 minutes, 54 secondssomething which is really quite shocking that something like 10% of the entire population of Lebanon uh some 700,000 or
16:0316 minutes, 3 seconds800,000 people have been displaced from their homes. That's rather extraordinary. Incredible. All right.
16:0816 minutes, 8 secondsWhat is Israel's goal in this whole thing?
16:1016 minutes, 10 secondsI think it's important to recognize that Israel believes that its security is achieved by dominating the region. It is
16:1916 minutes, 19 secondsnot seeking security by balancing threats or managing threats, but he actually has to dominate the region. So for it to have total security, everyone else has have to have total insecurity.
16:2916 minutes, 29 secondsAnd as a result, it's seeking its domination over Syria, over Lebanon.
16:3316 minutes, 33 secondsThese are countries that Israel can bomb at will with impunity without US involvement. It was also seeking the same objective with Iran. So it's not
16:4116 minutes, 41 secondslooking for a different regime. It doesn't care if the next Supreme Leader's name is Moshtab Hassan or Ali.
16:4616 minutes, 46 secondsThat's not of relevance. What's of relevance is that Iran does not have any capabilities, military, economic,
16:5216 minutes, 52 secondspolitical, to pose a challenge to Israel's desire for domination out of its belief of security. And what this war is achieving from the Israeli
17:0117 minutes, 1 secondstandpoint is exactly that. Iran is being blown up to pieces. Even if it may have military capabilities left and
17:0817 minutes, 8 secondsdeterrence through its missile, it is nevertheless being set back 10, 15, 20 years. And that is a major achievement
17:1617 minutes, 16 secondsfrom the Israeli standpoint. From the US standpoint, it is not because all we're doing is destabilizing the entire region, undermining global markets,
17:2617 minutes, 26 secondsundermining regional allies who are terrified about the consequences of this. But Israel is by and large insulated from those consequences and as
17:3417 minutes, 34 secondsa result does not care. The question is why is it that the Trump administration has gone along with a war that serves Israel's interest depending on how they
17:4217 minutes, 42 secondsdefine their interest but does not advance US interest.
17:4617 minutes, 46 secondsI think um I agree with Trita and I think for the Israelis it doesn't matter a weak state it could be a failed state
17:5317 minutes, 53 secondsit could be multiple states we saw for example the Kurdish issue being discussed having Kurds insurgents come into Iran from the western border
18:0118 minutes, 1 secondpotentially weaken the central government and have you know the central government deal with these issues on and on and on so that it can't pose a threat
18:0918 minutes, 9 secondsin any way uh to Israel and then for the Iranian people I mean you see rhetoric from Israeli leaders that on democracy see women's rights, helping Iranians
18:1818 minutes, 18 secondsbuild a better future, all of that. And none of this is happening. It's just bombing and bombing that from the viewpoint of a civilian in Iran across the country and not just in Thran seems indiscriminate and it's just, you know,
18:2918 minutes, 29 secondsattacking whatever and whoever and um destroying infrastructure that's going to take years to do reconstruction with
18:3718 minutes, 37 secondsa country that's under sanctions. And um I mean this illusion that some may have had before this war and especially before the June war that there is such
18:4618 minutes, 46 secondsthing as freedom bombs. Somehow they can bomb you into freedom. I think speaking to people at least on the ground that they're much more cleareyed about how this is.
18:5518 minutes, 55 secondsYou all I think uh have friends and family in in Iran right now. What are you hearing in terms of what's going on?
19:0319 minutes, 3 secondsSo my family a lot of them have evacuated to other parts of the country from Tan. Uh my grandmother it's I talked to her yesterday actually she's
19:1219 minutes, 12 secondsstill in Tan and it was very sad because she's in her 90s and she was saying that because her hearing is not good. She's like I can't really even hear so I don't
19:1919 minutes, 19 secondshear any bombs and it really made me sad but also you know this kind of bittersweet in a way. Um but my uncle my
19:2719 minutes, 27 secondscousin I mean all yeah they're all there terrifying people are getting bombed.
19:3019 minutes, 30 secondsAnother relative was driving on a street and bombs were coming down and then they kind of got out at the last minute. they were going to jump in a these sewer
19:3919 minutes, 39 secondsthings and then but they ducked behind something else and their car got hit and they took shrapnel to the face and they're in the hospital right now. So there's all these mounting civilian tolls. Mhm.
19:4919 minutes, 49 secondsI also have family, friends, uh people I speak to, a lot of them evacuated Tan to other parts of the country and also some
19:5719 minutes, 57 secondshave left Iran that could you can leave through the land with Turkey border and um it's just very horrific that it seems
20:0620 minutes, 6 secondsindiscriminate. People don't know where the next target is and this also happens in smaller towns and cities. I was speaking to someone in Tyran who said we
20:1420 minutes, 14 secondscan't feel safe even sleeping in our apartment. We sleep in the hallway of the apartment building to stay far away from windows. And the country doesn't
20:2320 minutes, 23 secondsreally have a war infrastructure like in Israel. There's sirens, there's shelters, none of that. So, they basically there's no detection, no air defense uh really. There's no sirens.
20:3220 minutes, 32 secondsThey just say we hear the jets or the explosion and that's how we know an attack happened.
20:3720 minutes, 37 secondsI spoke to someone yesterday who told me that now the Israelis have started to target banks. This is inter banks. This
20:4520 minutes, 45 secondsis interpreted by the Iranians as an effort to collapse the state. But this is clearly a civilian target. Banks in Iran are in the middle of the
20:5320 minutes, 53 secondsneighborhoods or streets just as it is in the United States. Uh they've been ordered to try to stay away one kilometer away from banks. But how do you do that? This because this is in the
21:0221 minutes, 2 secondsmiddle of the city. So no, people are absolutely terrified and I think particularly after the bombing of the refineries and the oil plants in Tehran,
21:1021 minutes, 10 secondsit's just terrible.
21:1121 minutes, 11 secondsWhat was the environmental impact of the bombing of the refineries? smoke covered the entire city. People could not
21:1721 minutes, 17 secondsbreathe and then you had rain come with acid rain and you know mixed with oil uh
21:2421 minutes, 24 secondsfor the next day or so. So the any idea as Nagar said that these are freedom bombs any idea that this is only
21:3221 minutes, 32 secondstargeting the repressive capabilities of the state in order to get rid of this specific theocracy. I think for a lot of people who are sitting in Iran and are
21:4021 minutes, 40 secondsfacing the fact that they no longer can breathe in their own city is just completely unconvincing.
21:4721 minutes, 47 secondsOkay. And we're looking at mounting civilian casualties schools. I mean talk about that one school the har. Yeah.
21:5421 minutes, 54 seconds175 children were killed or something.
21:5621 minutes, 56 secondsYes. Um so this was this was on the first day of the war. One of the first targets essentially before the war started. This is a target list that you
22:0522 minutes, 5 secondshave weeks if not months to prepare and work of. On the first moments of the war before Iran started shooting back, one of the targets was an elementary school
22:1322 minutes, 13 secondsin the southern city of Mino where it was hit with two strikes se uh by about a half hour separated. So in the initial
22:2222 minutes, 22 secondsstrike kills a bunch of students and staff and then staff call the parents um some of some of the people who are still alive to come and collect their kids and
22:3022 minutes, 30 secondsthey gather everyone in a prayer room and then comes the second strike. So 170 80 people most of them children aged 7
22:3822 minutes, 38 secondsto 12 in a small city that's far away from Thran. Many Iranians have never even heard of the city of Mino
22:4522 minutes, 45 secondsworkingclass middle class uh Iranians and the justification I mean first of all they said we didn't do it it was Iranians themselves and then turned out
22:5322 minutes, 53 secondsit was actually tomahawks that Iran doesn't have and this was targeting because supposedly uh 10 years before
23:0023 minutesthe school was part of a bigger Navy infrastructure but if you look at civilian and publicly available uh maps
23:0823 minutes, 8 secondssince 10 years uh past uh you can see that it's the school and so whatever the error was it's it's just been a horrific
23:1623 minutes, 16 secondshorrific tragedy and this is I think the moment you know like the mi moment in the Vietnam war that usually comes in
23:2323 minutes, 23 secondsthe thick of war you know this is when both sides start shooting and then things get murky but to have this as the
23:3023 minutes, 30 secondsopening of a war that you claim is surgical that's not against civilians we thought when the US enters the war with Israel there would be some rules of
23:3923 minutes, 39 secondsengagement some respect for international law, you know, a little different type of fighting, but no, I mean, if you ask elementary schools in the city of Mino, it certainly isn't.
23:5023 minutes, 50 secondsAnd I just think it's horrific. Human Rights Watch has said this should be investigated as a war crime. And um I just don't know how people can wrap their head around this.
23:5923 minutes, 59 secondsI think and that is not the only school as I understand that that has been involved. And what about health facilities, hospitals, schools have been damaged,
24:0724 minutes, 7 secondsdifferent infrastructure, oil refineries, water dalination, and then just random, you know, infrastructure
24:1424 minutes, 14 secondsthat's either around a target um or have been targeted. You know, the reasoning is not really clear to people. Banks,
24:2224 minutes, 22 secondsroads, people's homes, you know, these are historical sites.
24:2724 minutes, 27 secondsThe Kalistan Palace in Tan has been damaged. certain beautiful old palaces and mosques in Esvahan have been damaged
24:3524 minutes, 35 secondsand they actually bombed the Esvahan governor's palace which is right next to this famous square in Esvahan which the I mean the governor's house or res
24:4324 minutes, 43 secondsoffice I think it was but you know that is in itself a very questionable target I mean you're trying to again destroy the state and the rep the vibrations of
24:5124 minutes, 51 secondsthat damage all these beautiful mosques and tile work dating back hundreds of years in this famous square in Esvahan
24:5824 minutes, 58 secondsis this are these Israeli planes or American planes or are they working in coordination?
25:0425 minutes, 4 secondsThe school appears to have been American of course, but much of the rest,
25:0825 minutes, 8 secondsparticularly Tyran, is very hardly hit by the Israelis and there seems to be an AI element involved as it was in Gaza as
25:1625 minutes, 16 secondswell. So for instance, there's a park in Thran that is called Park Police Park.
25:2125 minutes, 21 secondsHas nothing to do with the police, but it's called police park. It was struck and it appears that because of the word police. because of the word police. It's just a park. It
25:3025 minutes, 30 secondsappears that these targets are identified by AI with no human oversight or verification as to whether they're actually legitimate or actually even serves any purpose.
25:4125 minutes, 41 secondsWell, the office of civilian protection in the Pentagon was also cut very short by this administration because they're
25:4825 minutes, 48 secondsnot fighting quote unquote uh uh politically correct wars or they're not fighting quote unquote with any stupid
25:5525 minutes, 55 secondsrules of engagement. So this is, you know, not just an accident. This is by design. When you cut people who are supposed to come and look at these
26:0326 minutes, 3 secondstargets and double check and make sure you're not harming civilians. Well, I mean, again, as an American,
26:0926 minutes, 9 secondswhat has disturbed me very much is what Trump is doing is completely undermining international law. Not only the
26:1826 minutes, 18 secondsConstitution of the United States, which says it is Congress that determines whether we go to war or not, but international law. Let's be clear.
26:2726 minutes, 27 secondsA nation does not have the right to unilaterally attack another nation without provocation. Right? Iran was not
26:3426 minutes, 34 secondsa threat. All right? That is a violation of international order. At the same time, we essentially assassinate the entire leadership of the country or the major part of the leadership. And you do
26:4226 minutes, 42 secondsthis and I want you to tell me if I'm right or wrong here in the midst of negotiations which at least some people
26:5026 minutes, 50 secondswere saying we're making progress. So you're bombing I'm negotiating with you and then I kill you.
26:5826 minutes, 58 secondsRather strange way to end the negotiation but am I right wrong here?
27:0227 minutes, 2 secondsIt's the law of the jungle. You know Trump started this really in his first term even when he assassinated the Iranian general Solmani who was in
27:0927 minutes, 9 secondsBaghdad. He was killed at the Baghdad international airport apparently on the way to deliver some kind of diplomatic message to Saudi Arabia to negotiate the
27:1727 minutes, 17 secondstalks with Saudi Arabia. And now this is a door. It's a Pandora's box that what Trump has opened that can have far-reaching ramifications. I think Gaza
27:2627 minutes, 26 secondsalso greatly contributed to it, but it's going to end bad for us Americans as well.
27:3127 minutes, 31 secondsWell, I think it ends badly for the for the world. I mean, out of you and you got know more about this stuff than I do, but at the end of World War II,
27:4027 minutes, 40 secondsthere was a coming together of nations that said, "Look, we've just gone through a horrible war. 50 million people were killed. Let's try to create
27:4727 minutes, 47 secondssome rules of engagement. Create the United Nations." see how we can maybe end war, minimize war. And now you're
27:5527 minutes, 55 secondsback to the war of the jungle. So you tell me absolutely if the United States can unilaterally on its own for its own reasons with Israel
28:0228 minutes, 2 secondsattack Iran, you tell me why. Give me the justification. If you're working for the State Department right now, if uh China were to invade uh Taiwan tomorrow,
28:1228 minutes, 12 secondstell us why you think it's a bad idea.
28:1428 minutes, 14 secondsThey should don't have the right to do that. Can you make that case? department will have no leg to stand on in that scenario because we have systematically and deliberately tried to
28:2328 minutes, 23 secondsdegrade if not completely destroy the norms around the use of force and international law. These laws were often times and these institutions were built
28:3228 minutes, 32 secondsby the United States as a leading power because we recognized that at the end of the day, even when we were one of the strongest nations and when we were the
28:4028 minutes, 40 secondsstrongest nations, we still needed the protection of international law and institutions in order to constrain the behavior of others. Now, we're moving
28:4828 minutes, 48 secondstowards a world that is much more multipolar. We have actually less relative power than we did before. We have a greater need as a result for
28:5628 minutes, 56 secondsthese institutions and these norms to constrain rival states. Instead, we are actually undermining them.
29:0329 minutes, 3 secondsRight? I mean, Putin now is smiling and say, "Well, look, sure, I invaded Ukraine. What's your problem, right? You're doing exactly the same thing.
29:1229 minutes, 12 secondsNorth Korea could throw missiles into South Korea tomorrow, right? What are you going to say?" So I mean I think we all know that you know the last [snorts]
29:2029 minutes, 20 secondsinternational law of the UN have been far from perfect but at least it is an attempt to bring people together in a civilized way to try to work out
29:2829 minutes, 28 secondsdifferences rather than killing each other.
29:3029 minutes, 30 secondsAll right. So what's going to happen? I know nobody knows what's going to happen tomorrow but give us your best sense of where we are today and what the future looks like.
29:4029 minutes, 40 secondsI fear that unfortunately things are going to get much worse.
29:4429 minutes, 44 secondsTrump, I think, has understood that this is not going the way he thought. That this plan A of his crashed down in just
29:5129 minutes, 51 secondsa couple of days, and now he's desperately trying to hide the lack of a strategy behind the noise of more and
29:5829 minutes, 58 secondsmore bombs falling on Thran. He's trying to turn this debacle into a success before the American public reacts,
30:0830 minutes, 8 secondsrealizes what's going on, and starts to pressure him, particularly his own base.
30:1230 minutes, 12 secondsThe Iranians are trying to do exactly the opposite. They're trying to squeeze the international economy, the oil markets in order to get gas prices,
30:2030 minutes, 20 secondsinflation up in this country so that they pressure Trump to stop this war.
30:2430 minutes, 24 secondsAnd Trump is desperately without a strategy trying to turn this into a victory before that happens.
30:3230 minutes, 32 secondsYeah, I agree with and for the Iran, we have to understand the Iranian side is fighting an existential war. I mean, this is a battle of survival for them.
30:4130 minutes, 41 secondsLook at the rhetoric. Look at the conduct of the war, the assassination of their top leaders and the regime change rhetoric and they saw this coming after
30:4930 minutes, 49 secondsJune. They had been waiting for it essentially preparing it even when they were going to negotiations. Iranian officials would say we have our finger on the trigger assuming that they're
30:5830 minutes, 58 secondsgoing to attack us again which is what they did in June after rounds of negotiations between Steve Wkov and the Iranian foreign minister. They attacked and then they did it again. But I think
31:0631 minutes, 6 secondsthat this thinking in Iran or sort of this change in defense policy or doctrine is that if we don't stop it
31:1331 minutes, 13 secondsthis time and essentially establish enough deterrence, we're going to turn into the next Lebanon, next Syria, next
31:2031 minutes, 20 secondsGaza, and this low mo mowing the lawn or mowing the grass is going to happen to us every six months, every eight months, every year coming back attacking again.
31:2831 minutes, 28 secondsSo, you know, it's a very big gamble.
31:3131 minutes, 31 secondsThey're taking a very big risk at a very high cost. you know, especially the civilian cost on the Iranian side,
31:3631 minutes, 36 secondsalmost 1500 people killed, lots of infrastructure damage. But their thinking is they have to fight this to a point where enough deterrence is
31:4431 minutes, 44 secondsestablished. They're essentially referring to Trump as a bully. And they're saying the bully will keep coming back to us if we project weakness, which we have. We have shown
31:5231 minutes, 52 secondsrestraint in the past. We have shown that we're predictable. We have given him offramps when he assassinated the top general Solmani when the June war
31:5931 minutes, 59 secondshappened. So this time they're they have promised and threatened and they did that they're going to escalate, they're going to expand it in the region, spread
32:0632 minutes, 6 secondsthe pain and create sort of a deterrence to stop this from happening again.
32:1232 minutes, 12 secondsYeah. And I think you know putting aside the very consequential damages to international law norms that we just discussed about there's many costs that
32:1932 minutes, 19 secondsthis this conflict is really presenting for just strategically for America just on real politic terms. I mean, Iran has
32:2632 minutes, 26 secondsbeen hitting back in a very strategically consequential way. It's hit, it's destroyed, you know, THAAD air defenses, radar facilities in Saudi
32:3432 minutes, 34 secondsArabia and Jordan. A lot of US bases in the region have been hit. The US is now moving THAAD missile batteries from
32:4032 minutes, 40 secondsSouth Korea that it got there in 2017 18 after a huge political uproar. The China started, there was a big political
32:4832 minutes, 48 secondsbattle in South Korea. Now that's being moved to Asia to West Asia, to the Middle East. And so you know I
32:5532 minutes, 55 secondsto Ukraine are also being impacted to Ukraine. So this is a total strategic fiasco arguably and self-defeating for America and Iran you know has
33:0433 minutes, 4 secondsdemonstrated this leverage for closing the straight of Hormuz and the US really has no good military options if it attempts a ground invasion tries to hit more critical Iranian infrastructure.
33:1333 minutes, 13 secondsIran has the means to hit back harder against critical infrastructure in the Gulf and things will just get even more dire for the global economy. You don't I
33:2033 minutes, 20 secondsmean Trump is fairly crazy, but I don't think he's that crazy to put American troops on the ground in Iran. Do you think?
33:2633 minutes, 26 secondsI would not rule it out at all. You would not?
33:2833 minutes, 28 secondsNo. I think he is doubling down. He's throwing bad good money after bad. Um and I fear that there will be some attempt. It probably will not be some
33:3733 minutes, 37 secondssort of Iraq style invasion that would require more than 300,000 troops. That would take months to mobilize, but that there will be special forces and and
33:4533 minutes, 45 secondsother measures that will be done. again desperately trying to turn this into a victory. And I think that unfortunately
33:5233 minutes, 52 secondsthis entire premise of this war and these negotiations was on this false belief that Iran is a paper triger. It
34:0034 minuteswill be very easy. You will be the president that finally we'll get rid of this theocracy. It's the biggest thing you can achieve. And he went in
34:0834 minutes, 8 secondsunprepared. He did not have a plan B after plan A crashed down. And now we're seeing a war that is being improvised.
34:1634 minutes, 16 secondsI think maybe it was you Nar who had mentioned American media covering the war. Was it to you? I think you you're on a TV show.
34:2534 minutes, 25 secondsHow was American media covering the war?
34:2734 minutes, 27 secondsAre they covering it in in what you would call an objective way?
34:3134 minutes, 31 secondsNot enough. Not objective. I mean, I don't want to generalize the entirety of the media, but mainstream media, legacy media, the gatekeepers, cable news,
34:4034 minutes, 40 secondswhich most Americans follow, is not covering enough, is not covering objectively. I mean the way Iranian children hit at an elementary elementary
34:4934 minutes, 49 secondsschool are covered is very different than let's say if um Russia had opened the war in Ukraine with something like
34:5634 minutes, 56 secondsthat or if Iran had done this in Israel they haven't yet or the way Israel for example attacks on Gaza uh is covered in
35:0435 minutes, 4 secondsthe media you know that has been discussed a lot by by analysts and media observers but in general I think sort of the dehumanization of those societies is
35:1435 minutes, 14 secondswhat starts and it eventually leads to these wars in Afghanistan. We saw that in Iraq, we saw that in Iran, we see it
35:2035 minutes, 20 secondsin Gaza with the Palestinians. And um it's just um you know, I think a disservice to the American public. This
35:2735 minutes, 27 secondsis a public that uh understands to some extent that they don't want this more,
35:3235 minutes, 32 secondsbut the media can do such a much better job as far as um explaining, you know,
35:3735 minutes, 37 secondsthe realities and the nuances. There's limited access. I'll give them that. So CNN was just on the ground in Iran actually doing excellent reporting Fred
35:4535 minutes, 45 secondsPleum. But when you look at for example the opinion side or the debate shows the other day they had on CNN uh a reporter
35:5335 minutes, 53 secondsin Tel Aviv to give you the mood on the ground in Tel Aviv and then an Israeli to give you what Iranians think and the Israeli journalist was saying that
36:0136 minutes, 1 secondIranians in Iran are happy that they're being bombed and the way the US and Israel are conducting the war. This is CNN. So the the media coverage I think
36:1036 minutes, 10 secondsis absolutely a disservice to the American public. Not all media are the same, but uh the way it's being treated,
36:1736 minutes, 17 secondsthe dehumanization is at the core of it.
36:1936 minutes, 19 secondsAnd also taking political rhetoric from officials at face value, not really challenging it much. I mean, it took about two weeks for the school uh attack
36:2836 minutes, 28 secondsto really get into the headlines, get into the news, and be scrutinized the way I think it should have been earlier.
36:3636 minutes, 36 secondsThoughts on our um what's going to happen in the next few weeks, months, thoughts?
36:4536 minutes, 45 secondsI mean, key things I'll be watching is like where we're heading up on the escalation ladder if because you know Iran still has options available to it
36:5336 minutes, 53 secondsas does the US obviously. So the desalinization plan was very concerning.
36:5736 minutes, 57 secondsThere's a tit for that there. if they try to, you know, take some territory from Iran around the straight of horn moose that can that'll be a big quagmire. But Iran could, you know,
37:0737 minutes, 7 secondsretaliate by hitting critical Saudi infrastructure, like there's a lot of things that Iran can hit that it hasn't hit, including pipelines that circumvent
37:1437 minutes, 14 secondsthe trade of Hormuz. The Houthies haven't really gotten involved that much. Um, so things can get a lot worse from both sides. So I'm going to be
37:2237 minutes, 22 secondswatching some of these critical flash points, see where Trump decides to escalate and how Iran then decides to counter escalate. I'm also watching the Gulf countries,
37:3037 minutes, 30 secondsyou know, these countries that are sort of in a double bind. They have been hosting US bases for many years supposedly to protect them for defense.
37:3837 minutes, 38 secondsAnd now from Iran's viewpoint, that entire infrastructure is used in a war of aggression against Iran. And so some
37:4637 minutes, 46 secondsof them I really think have a hard time choosing between the two sides or don't even want to choose them. from countries like Oman, Qatar, uh even Saudi Arabia
37:5437 minutes, 54 secondswho's had a daunt with Iran, I think are in a difficult position. And then there's there are other parts of the Gulf who are treated differently. But
38:0238 minutes, 2 secondsIran is trying to essentially spread the pain to these countries and send a different message about the presence of US bases, US you know infrastructure in
38:1138 minutes, 11 secondsthat region and how it's used uh in this war in this aggression against them and to in I would say maybe in an indirect
38:1838 minutes, 18 secondsway try to pressure them to see if they can pressure the US and then also change the trajectory of their you know defense relationship with the US in the future
38:2738 minutes, 27 secondsafter the war. True. One of the things I'm very worried about, and we started off talking about this, which was the struggle for democracy in Iran, and I
38:3538 minutes, 35 secondsfear that what we're seeing now with this war is really going to set it back dramatically. I do not believe that the likelihood of this theocy theocracy
38:4238 minutes, 42 secondsfalling is particularly great. And when you take a look at it, you just go back 10 years and you ask yourself, could we have pursued a different path? If we
38:5038 minutes, 50 secondstruly genuinely would like to see Iran move in that direction, if we had not pulled out of the JCPA, if Trump had not pulled out of the JCPOA
38:5938 minutes, 59 secondsand sanctions would have been lifted in a longer period of time, the Iranian economy would have grown significantly.
39:0539 minutes, 5 secondsIt grew about 67% for those two years that sanctions were lifted before Trump pulled it out. By now, the Iranian middle class would have probably been
39:1339 minutes, 13 secondsthe largest one in the entire Middle East. it would have been in a position of strength visav this repressive system
39:2039 minutes, 20 secondsand state to push back and demand greater freedoms. Instead, we pulled out of these agreements, reimposed sanctions. Between 2018 and 2019,
39:3239 minutes, 32 secondsonethird of Iran's middle class went into poverty as a result of these sanctions. People then started to, of course, go out and protest. But with a
39:4139 minutes, 41 secondsdecimated middle class, they were protesting from a position of despair and desperation rather than position uh protesting from a position of strength.
39:5139 minutes, 51 secondsNow with this decision to have Mushtab become the next supreme leader and this regime still standing in place in some
39:5939 minutes, 59 secondsways perhaps even gotten stronger because of this attack. I'm very very worried what we may have done to the cause of democracy in Iraq.
40:0840 minutes, 8 secondsAll right. Anyone want to add anything to what we've talked about? I'll just add to what Trto was saying.
40:1540 minutes, 15 secondsI'm also worried about that. I share that concern that the more militaristic uh you know hard core of the Islamic
40:2440 minutes, 24 secondsRepublic, the unelected bodies, the security uh intelligence, the IRGC,
40:2940 minutes, 29 secondsthose establishments are going to consolidate even more power as a result of this and essentially come on top at the end of the war. And that's going to
40:3740 minutes, 37 secondshave ramifications at least in the medium term for the Iranian society, the civil society, the closing of the political space of um you know a lot of
40:4540 minutes, 45 secondsachievements that um these movements have made. So it's it's worrying and it's going to be certainly a direct result of this war.
40:5340 minutes, 53 secondsOkay. Cena, any last thoughts or um No, I think you guys concluded on a good note. Yeah, it's very concerning what it means for the people in Iran.
41:0141 minutes, 1 secondVery anything you want to add? Thank you so much for having us and I do hope that the American public respond to this
41:0941 minutes, 9 secondsillegal unjust war that really does not serve US interests in the same manner that they have to previous wars.
41:1441 minutes, 14 secondsI certainly agree. Um you know if we look back [snorts] on the history of this country in the United States
41:2341 minutes, 23 secondsuh from the very beginning people fought for human rights many exceptions to that slavery women's rights
41:3141 minutes, 31 secondsuh and and led the world in the struggle for democracy uh and at the end of World War II tried
41:4041 minutes, 40 secondsto build an international structure uh to maybe tame war at least conduct
41:4941 minutes, 49 secondsbring about rules of law, bring about negotiations instead of invasions,
41:5441 minutes, 54 secondsgreater the United Nations. And what as I mentioned earlier, what upsets me very very much is what a terrible setback
42:0242 minutes, 2 secondsthis is. Uh what Trump is doing is giving a green light to any dictator in the world, any government in the world
42:0942 minutes, 9 secondsthat wants to go to war and use the word dehumanizing. You know, bombing schools really killing people you're negotiating
42:1742 minutes, 17 secondswith. Really? Is that what this country is about? I think it's not. And I think the American people understand that that is not what we are supposed to be about.
42:2742 minutes, 27 secondsNot to mention the fact that we have so many of our people struggling economically. People want to build schools in this country, not destroy
42:3442 minutes, 34 secondsschools in Iran. You know, you want to feed people in this country, not bomb hospitals uh in Tran. So, uh there's a
42:4442 minutes, 44 secondslot of work to be done. Uh and I just want to I I have felt the reason I've asked you here today is I just uh
42:5242 minutes, 52 secondsbelieve there has not been the kind of serious discussion that we need in this country understanding Iran uh and American foreign policy. So, I
43:0043 minuteswant to thank you all very much for being here. Thank you so much. Thank you. Take care. Thank you all.
43:0543 minutes, 5 seconds[music]
===
410 Comments
Sejin Lifeforce 生命
Add a comment...
@carolflinn9975
16 hours ago
We appreciate you Burnie
135
Reply
1 reply
@longhorn7809
14 hours ago
Bernie Sanders and Crew
Thank you
63
Reply
@WendyBodsworth-k5m
15 hours ago
Thanks so much for this history Bernie and guests. Respect. From australia
67
Reply
@OliviaCarrillo-u5g
13 hours ago
Thank you Senator Sanders , for sharing in on Iranian history.
44
Reply
@rhodesrobinson1960
14 hours ago
Thank you Bernie Sanders. With tears in my eyes, im praying for the civilian population of Iran. This is devastating to imagine what families are going through!
43
Reply
@timbenson6577
15 hours ago
To me Hegseth confessed that he was going to commit war crimes and then did.He needs to be charged with war crimes because administrations will change and then he need to be brought to justice.
91
Reply
2 replies
@lewis1-j7e
16 hours ago
Thanks Bernie
34
Reply
@susanfrancis5471
11 hours ago
The USA needs to Stop supporting Netanyahu’s Israel.
His murder of Gazans was ILLEGAL.
23
Reply
@cumarcumar-q9l
15 hours ago
It is so Naive and in responsible to BOMB a Nation to Surrender or to give up Their Dignity.
Justice for a Peace loving World,
58
Reply
2 replies
@WendyBodsworth-k5m
15 hours ago
To your iranian guests bernie, i hope that your families stay safe. Respect & warm regards from australia
65
Reply
@TedlaGuallu
11 hours ago
THANK U VERY MUCH SENATOR SANDERS. THE THREE GUESTS OF IRANIAN ORIGION ARE VERY OBJECTIVE. VERY THOUGHTFUL WITH GREAT SYMPATHY FOR THEIR ANSCENTERAL LAND AND ITS PEOPLE. GREAT RESPECT FOR ALL OF THEM.
20
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@lisamallant2029
15 hours ago
Im so ashamed of America 😢
May God forgive us and help ALL the people & environments that the bullies are destroying ❤
60
Reply
2 replies
@thomasdalton2404
12 hours ago
Regime Change in Israel for Middle East Peace. Regime Change in America for WORLD PEACE.
33
Reply
4 replies
@catherinenelson145
16 hours ago
Trust is no longer a virtue of United States 🇺🇸 Thank You
Trump. You’ve carried your business practice into our once great Oval Office. You cannot keep your word if your life depended on it! Untrustworthy through and through until the end. Hopefully not ours.
46
Reply
3 replies
@CathyOsborn
17 hours ago
Love Bernie!❤
41
Reply
2 replies
@WendyBodsworth-k5m
15 hours ago
Thanks for this calm respectful analysis. ❤
22
Reply
@timbenson6577
15 hours ago
Bernie,why are you asking better guestion than our media and have gotten the most level head analysis that I have seen yet?
23
Reply
@johnnybartlett-ke9wg
15 hours ago
One sad thing is millions of the people in the United States believe just like the cult leader trump😢
21
Reply
@celesteburley4035
13 hours ago
Bernie is our WISDOM LEADER ❤
18
Reply
@timbenson6577
15 hours ago
Who ever changed Putin with war crimes has to have the courage to charge Trump and our military leaders with war crimes.
36
Reply
10 replies
@WendyBodsworth-k5m
16 hours ago
The iranian people i have seen all speak calmly and respectfully. Thanks Bernie
42
Reply
@thomaswensing3856
14 hours ago
I love Bernie, keeping it a hundred once again! Where do you get this kind of quality information otherwise?
19
Reply
@firouzehrouhani899
15 hours ago
Thank you Mr. Sanders!
46
Reply
@rustyhardesty9630
17 hours ago
I fucking love Bernie. I wish he could’ve been our president. AOC 2028.
37
Reply
4 replies
@laurieweinberg353
11 hours ago
So the school WAS a double tap.
7
Reply
1 reply
@breathe-n-stop
13 hours ago
President Sanders, it's great to see you! ❤
11
Reply
@janinecunningham931
14 hours ago
👋Mr Bernie. I've been a fan 4ever. I love❤this format with you. Interesting questions with interesting guests from the different regions affected. There perspective is so important to see and imagine what horror these innocent souls are going through daily. I appreciate your completing that picture. 😢😢😢
15
Reply
@martinabussiere1891
11 hours ago
Thank you for the history lesson.
9
Reply
@hercc6155
15 hours ago
Without US based presence in ME there will be Peace in the region!!
18
Reply
2 replies
@cumarcumar-q9l
16 hours ago
Senator Bernie, the world peace loving World Appreciate you and your Guests for making Wonderful Political Discussion.
The whole world knew that IRAN didn't Start this Senseless War that Caused Many innocent Civilian's life and destruction.
This WAR about Scaping the Justice.
Justice for a Peace loving World,
49
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2 replies
@mariomorais4825
15 hours ago
The same old nonsense...Empty words when everyone knows what kind of countries the USA and Israel are...and their governments.
14
Reply
@ramiroml
13 hours ago
Thanks for this debate and the recent Iran's history. All human being in this world must watch this video!
7
Reply
@evanbradshaw1994
9 hours ago
Very eye opening.
I've gained valuable understanding here.
No freedom in bombs is the bottom line.
6
Reply
@alexpiper9475
11 hours ago
thanks to Bernie for getting off the tread mill and showing some information.
6
Reply
@GabriellaCard
13 hours ago
Very informative. Thank you. What is Trump getting from Bibi?
7
Reply
@j01vno
14 hours ago
Bernie is awesome 👌
7
Reply
@SufferingIgnorance
12 hours ago (edited)
Have you noticed that it is never the soldiers that start the war it’s always the leaders. So what is the point of leadership that leads us into war? Our leaders are absolute failures from the Vietnam war to Iraq and Afghanistan to Iran.
Trump’s only motivation is money so you can only imagine how he’s profiting from this war with Iran. The greatest deal maker.
8
Reply
@Aprillia6565
12 hours ago
Thank you Bernie Sanders as always are being honorable!!!!
4
Reply
@JohnOrorke-w3o
16 hours ago
It was never the comment World War 111
IT was World War Trump
Destroying Iran's Historic Ancient Building and People with his Missiles
#SHAMETRUMP
☘️
10
Reply
@lewisstreet7266
14 hours ago
In the middle of a negotiation Iran is attacked by Israel and the US. And after you blame Iran for bieng unrelialble and a country that cannot be trusted. This is like the world upsidedown.... Lewis Carroll's Through the Looking Glass
8
Reply
1 reply
@brightargyle8950
13 hours ago
Bernie is old but 100% sharper and more intelligent than Trump.
7
Reply
@mathtrixmusiclix4248
8 hours ago
Thanks goodness for the internet; This level of discourse is unavailable to mainstream broadcasting.
Sadly, the lack of this information lead us to this place today.
1
Reply
@kaisimski2880
9 hours ago
25:30 "it appears that these targets where identified with AI..." - think about this!
3
Reply
@longhorn7809
14 hours ago
🙏 senator Bernie Sanders 🇺🇲👁️ 👁️
5
Reply
@horsepower4U-st
12 hours ago
Thank you Bernie!
3
Reply
@lourdes8hinnant
14 hours ago
Go Bernie 👏❤
4
Reply
@philsarkol6443
14 hours ago
Bernie is a powerhouse, to relentlesly keep on going protesting against the current administration, fighting for everyday Americans, at his age, is nothing but to be admired. Bernie will fight for freedom of speech and for democracy until his last breath! May that be many many years from now!!
6
Reply
@AlanDolan
13 hours ago
Thanks so much, Bernie, for the history lesson. It is so important to understand what is going on.
3
Reply
@TruthToPower247
9 hours ago
Netanyahu should never be allowed back into the USA again.
Resend any dual citizenship he may have
4
Reply
@KareemClarkelyn
9 hours ago
Americans will pay for those girls
for years to come my friend said
2
Reply
@OliviaCarrillo-u5g
13 hours ago
Trump needs to surrender!! Killing innocent people. May the good lord bless Iran 🙏🕊️🕊️🙏
7
Reply
@axel5475
16 hours ago
The people of America who voted these blundering fools into office hold your head in shame. And I mean in shame, you are as much to blame.
19
Reply
1 reply
@CovfefeZ
12 hours ago
Generals ... approved 5,000 targets by whom ...
2
Reply
1 reply
@tomc2681
15 hours ago
The US has a tradition of bombing schools. 5000 schools were bombed during the Korean war. Thousands were destroyed during the vietnam war. I think if you want to change the US, you need to separate what the US is and what it aspires to be, which is not the same thing.
25
Reply
@halwiseman2625
11 hours ago (edited)
Thank you Bernie for putting a human face on Iranian people. For giving them a calm rational voice. War mongers want to demonize them. The CIA has been persecuting Iran ever since upsetting their democracy in 1953.
5
Reply
@PatriciaVongsoury
11 hours ago
Thank you Bernie... Praying for ✌️ peace
1
Reply
@martinabussiere1891
11 hours ago
Thank you Burnie.
1
Reply
@JyttesTrailCamera
13 hours ago (edited)
This whole war is a crime, and those responsible must be held accountable !
You bring up the UN? Really? They just condemned Iran for defending themselves for crying out loud! UN is dead! So is international law! Now we have a free-for-all.
23
Reply
1 reply
@laurieweinberg353
11 hours ago
Interesting discussion. Thank you
1
Reply
@pix2Purple2025
22 minutes ago (edited)
TY @SenatorBernieSanders and All Guests!
Reply
===
세진님, 요청하신 대로 업로드된 영상 대본의 내용을 바탕으로 버니 샌더스 상원의원과 전문가 3인의 대담을 분석하여 요약 및 평론을 작성하였다.
<미국-이란 전쟁의 전략적 부재와 인도적 재앙에 관한 대담 요약 및 평론>
1. 개요 및 대담 배경
본 대담은 2026년 3월 13일, 미-이란 전쟁이 격화되는 시점에서 버니 샌더스(<Bernie Sanders>) 상원의원과 세 명의 이란 전문가(트리타 파르시, 네가르 모르타자비, 시나 투시) 사이에 이루어졌다
2. 주요 요약
가. 이란 사회의 복잡성과 역사적 뿌리
이란 사회의 성격: 전문가들은 이란이 단순한 일인 독재 국가가 아니며, 여성 운동(<Woman, Life, Freedom>)과 노동조합 등 민주주의를 향한 100년 이상의 투쟁 역사를 가진 복잡한 사회라고 설명한다
. 1953년 쿠데타의 유산: 이란 내 반미 감정의 핵심은 1953년 미국 CIA와 영국이 민주적으로 선출된 모사데크 정부를 전복시킨 사건에 있다
. 이는 1979년 혁명과 인질 사건의 근본적인 원인이 되었다 .
나. 전쟁의 명분과 현실적 참상
불분명한 전쟁 명분: 핵 프로그램 저지, 민주주의 전파 등 정부가 내세운 명분은 일관성이 없으며, 실제로는 무고한 민간인만 희생시키고 있다
. 인도적 재앙: 대담자들은 미노(<Minoo>) 시의 초등학생 170~180명이 사망한 학교 폭격 사건을 언급하며, 이를 베트남 전쟁의 '미라이 학살'에 비유한다
. 또한 은행, 병원, 역사적 유적지 등 민간 시설에 대한 무차별적 공격과 정유소 폭격으로 인한 환경 오염이 심각하다 . 이스라엘의 역할: 샌더스와 전문가들은 이번 전쟁이 미국의 국익보다는 이스라엘 베냐민 네타냐후 총리의 지역 패권 유지 욕구에 의해 주도되고 있다고 분석한다
.
다. 전략적 실패와 미래 전망
억제력 확보와 확전: 이란은 생존을 위한 '실존적 전쟁'을 수행 중이며, 미국의 압박에 굴복하기보다 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄 및 미군 기지 타격을 통해 강력한 대응을 이어가고 있다
. 민주주의의 후퇴: 전쟁과 제재는 이란 내 온건파를 약화시키고 혁명수비대(<IRGC>) 등 강경파의 권력을 공고히 함으로써, 이란 내부의 민주화 동력을 오히려 훼손하고 있다
.
3. 평론: '정글의 법칙'으로 회귀하는 미국 외교
본 대담은 현대 미국 외교가 직면한 가장 치명적인 문제인 전략적 근시안과 도덕적 파산을 날카롭게 해부한다.
첫째, 트럼프 행정부의 이란 정책은 국제법적 정당성의 완전한 상실을 보여준다. 샌더스가 지적하듯, 의회의 선전포고 권한을 무시하고 국제 규범을 파괴하는 일방적 공격은 미국을 스스로 구축한 국제 질서의 파괴자로 전락시켰다
둘째, 정보 기술의 역설적 사용이다. AI를 활용한 표적 식별이 인간의 검토 없이 수행되면서 '경찰 공원(<Police Park>)'이라는 이름만으로 민간인 휴식처를 폭격하는 등 기술이 살상의 효율성만 높이고 책임감은 거세하는 결과를 초래했다
셋째, 언론의 직무 유기에 대한 비판은 뼈아프다. 주류 언론이 이란 사회의 복잡성을 제거하고 '악마화'에 동조함으로써 전쟁의 참상을 외면하고 대중의 눈을 가리고 있다는 지적은 민주주의 사회에서 언론의 역할에 대해 심각한 의문을 던진다
결론적으로, 이 대담은 미-이란 전쟁이 단순한 군사적 충돌을 넘어, 미국이 지향해 온 민주주의 가치와 인도주의적 원칙이 내부에서부터 붕괴되고 있음을 경고한다. 샌더스의 말처럼 미국인은 이란의 학교를 파괴하는 대신 자국의 학교를 세우는 데 집중해야 하며
세진님, 이 요약 및 평론 내용에 대해 더 구체적으로 논의하고 싶은 부분이 있으신가요? 혹은 특정 발언자의 관점을 더 보강해 드릴까요?
===
다음은 세진님이 올리신 토론 영상 **“Trump Is Desperately Without..: Bernie Sanders In Explosive Debate With Experts On Iran War”**의 핵심 내용을 정리한 약 1,000단어 요약 + 평론입니다.
(발언자는 총 4명: Bernie Sanders, Trita Parsi, Negar Mortazavi, Sina Toossi)
<미국–이란 전쟁 논쟁: 버니 샌더스와 이란인 전문가 토론>
1,000단어 요약 + 평론
1. 토론의 배경
이 토론은 미국과 이란 사이의 군사 충돌이 격화되는 상황에서, 미국의 대외정책 방향과 전쟁의 정당성을 놓고 진행된 정책 토론이다. 진행자는 미국 상원의원 Bernie Sanders이며, 세 명의 중동 전문가가 참여했다.
Trita Parsi – Quincy Institute 부대표, 미국 외교정책 분석가
Negar Mortazavi – 이란 정치 분석가 및 언론인
Sina Toossi – 이란 핵협상 및 제재 정책 연구자
토론의 핵심 질문은 다음과 같다.
미국의 이란 공격은 정당한가
이란 체제는 어떤 성격의 정치체제인가
현재 전쟁의 실제 원인은 무엇인가
미국과 이스라엘의 역할은 무엇인가
전쟁이 어떤 방향으로 갈 가능성이 있는가
샌더스는 토론을 시작하며 트럼프 행정부가 명확한 전략 없이 전쟁을 확대하고 있다고 강하게 비판했다.
'Trump Is Desperately Without..…
2. 버니 샌더스의 핵심 주장
샌더스의 발언은 토론의 정치적 프레임을 제시한다.
그의 핵심 주장은 세 가지다.
(1) 미국의 이란 공격은 전략 없이 진행되고 있다
샌더스는 트럼프 정부가
전쟁의 목표
외교 전략
전후 계획
어느 것도 명확히 제시하지 못했다고 주장한다.
그는 이를 다음과 같이 표현한다.
“트럼프는 전략 없이 행동하고 있으며 미국을 위험한 전쟁으로 끌어들이고 있다.”
'Trump Is Desperately Without..…
즉, 전쟁이 정치적 즉흥 결정으로 진행되고 있다는 비판이다.
(2) 전쟁 결정권은 의회에 있다
샌더스는 미국 헌법을 언급하며
전쟁 선언은 의회의 권한
대통령의 일방 공격은 헌법 위반
이라고 주장한다.
이 점은 미국 내부에서도 중요한 논쟁이다.
(3) 전쟁은 세계적 불안정성을 초래한다
샌더스는 다음 위험을 강조한다.
중동 지역 확전
글로벌 경제 충격
민간인 피해 확대
특히 그는 외교와 협상이 유일한 해결책이라고 강조한다.
3. Trita Parsi의 분석
Parsi의 발언은 미국–이란 갈등의 구조적 원인을 설명하는 데 집중된다.
(1) 1953년 CIA 쿠데타
Parsi는 미국–이란 갈등의 시작을
1953년 모사데그 정권 전복 사건
으로 설명한다.
당시 상황
모사데그 총리
석유 국유화 추진
영국과 미국이 쿠데타 지원
결과
민주정부 붕괴
샤 독재체제 등장
이 사건은 이란 정치에서 매우 중요한 기억이다.
'Trump Is Desperately Without..…
Parsi는 이 사건이
이란의 반미 정서를 형성한 핵심 사건
이라고 강조한다.
(2) 이란 체제는 단순 독재가 아니다
Parsi는 서구 언론이 이란을 단순한 독재국가로 묘사하는 것을 비판한다.
이란 체제는
권위주의 체제
그러나 선거 존재
정치 파벌 경쟁 존재
즉 복합적 정치체제라는 것이다.
(3) 전쟁은 미국의 전략적 실수
Parsi는 전쟁이 다음 결과를 가져올 것이라고 본다.
이란 내부 강경파 강화
미국의 영향력 약화
중동 질서 불안정
4. Negar Mortazavi의 분석
Mortazavi는 이란 사회 내부 상황을 설명한다.
그녀의 발언은 특히 전쟁이 시민에게 미치는 영향에 초점이 있다.
(1) 이란 시민들은 전쟁을 원하지 않는다
Mortazavi는 가족과 친구들의 경험을 언급하며
공습 공포
민간인 피해
경제 붕괴
가 심각하다고 말한다.
'Trump Is Desperately Without..…
예를 들어
학교 폭격
병원 피해
도시 인프라 파괴
등이 발생하고 있다고 설명한다.
(2) 전쟁은 민주화를 촉진하지 않는다
서구 정치에서는 종종
“폭격 → 민주화”
라는 논리가 등장한다.
Mortazavi는 이를 강하게 부정한다.
그 이유는
전쟁이
시민사회 파괴
정치 공간 축소
권력 집중
을 가져오기 때문이다.
(3) 정보전 문제
Mortazavi는 특히 언론 보도의 편향성을 지적한다.
그녀는 다음을 비판한다.
민간인 피해 축소 보도
정치적 선전
단순한 선악 프레임
즉, 전쟁 보도 자체가 이미 정치화되어 있다는 것이다.
5. Sina Toossi의 분석
Toossi는 군사 전략과 국제정치 측면을 설명한다.
(1) 이란은 약하지만 위험한 상대
그는 이란이
미국보다 훨씬 약한 군사력
그러나 비대칭 전략 보유
라고 분석한다.
주요 능력
미사일 공격
해상 교란
지역 동맹 네트워크
(2) 전쟁은 장기전으로 갈 가능성
Toossi는 다음 가능성을 제시한다.
중동 전역 확전
호르무즈 해협 긴장
에너지 시장 충격
이 전쟁은 단기전이 아니라
지속적 충돌
로 갈 가능성이 높다고 본다.
(3) 미국의 승리도 패배일 수 있다
그는 다음 시나리오를 제시한다.
미국이 군사적으로 승리해도
이란 국가 붕괴
지역 혼란
테러 증가
로 이어질 수 있다.
6. 토론의 핵심 결론
네 명의 발언은 서로 다른 관점이지만 공통된 결론을 공유한다.
공통된 핵심 메시지
이 전쟁은 전략이 불명확하다
민간인 피해가 심각하다
군사 해결은 장기적으로 실패할 가능성이 높다
외교 협상이 필요하다
7. 평론: 이 토론의 의미
이 토론은 미국 정치에서 중요한 흐름을 보여준다.
(1) 미국 내부에서도 전쟁 회의론이 강하다
특히
Iraq War 경험
Afghanistan 실패
때문에
미국 사회에는 강한 전쟁 피로감이 존재한다.
샌더스는 그 대표적 정치인이다.
(2) 이스라엘 요인 논쟁
토론에서는 직접적으로 언급되지는 않지만,
미국의 중동 정책이
이스라엘 안보
지역 세력 균형
과 깊이 연결되어 있다는 점이 암시된다.
(3) 이란 체제에 대한 보다 복합적 이해
이 토론은 이란을
“악한 독재국가”
라는 단순 프레임 대신
복합적 권위주의 체제
로 이해하려는 시도를 보여준다.
이는 최근 학계 흐름과도 일치한다.
8. 전체 평가
이 토론의 가장 중요한 의미는 다음이다.
장점
역사적 맥락 제공
이란 사회 내부 시각 제시
군사 전략 분석
한계
이란 정권의 억압 문제는 상대적으로 약하게 다룸
이스라엘 안보 문제는 깊이 논의되지 않음
결론
이 토론은 단순한 정치 논쟁이 아니라
미국 외교정책의 근본적 질문
을 던진다.
그 질문은 다음이다.
미국은 군사력으로 세계 질서를 유지하려 하는가
아니면 외교와 국제 규범으로 해결하려 하는가
샌더스와 전문가들의 결론은 분명하다.
중동 문제는 폭격이 아니라 협상으로 해결해야 한다.
세진님이 관심 가지실 것 같아서, 원하시면 이어서 다음 분석도 해드리겠습니다.
1️⃣ 이 토론에서 사실 가능성이 높은 주장 vs 정치적 주장
2️⃣ 미국 군사 전문가들의 실제 평가 (이란 군사력)
3️⃣ 이란 미사일 전력의 실제 수준
4️⃣ 이 전쟁이 실제로 어떻게 전개될 가능성이 높은가
이 네 가지는 이 토론을 이해하는 데 훨씬 더 중요한 분석입니다.
===
좋습니다. 아래는 세진님이 요청하신 4가지를 중심으로, 그 토론을 <현실 검증>하는 방식으로 정리한 분석입니다.
토론 원문은 세진님이 올리신 PDF transcript에 근거합니다.
'Trump Is Desperately Without..…
<버니 샌더스–이란 전문가 토론의 현실 검증>
1. 이 토론에서 <사실 가능성이 높은 주장> vs <정치적 주장>
이 토론의 강점은, 전쟁을 단순한 선악 구도가 아니라 <역사>, <전략>, <이란 내부사회>, <국제질서>의 문제로 본다는 점입니다. 그러나 몇몇 주장은 상당히 설득력이 높고, 몇몇은 정치적 수사나 해석이 강합니다.
먼저 <사실 가능성이 높은 주장>부터 보면 이렇습니다.
첫째, <이란은 단순한 일인독재로만 설명하기 어렵다>는 주장은 대체로 타당합니다. 이란은 분명 권위주의 체제이지만, 완전한 개인독재와는 다르게 선거, 파벌 경쟁, 제도권 내 보수–개혁 갈등이 존재해 왔습니다. 물론 최고지도자 체제와 혁명수비대의 압도적 권력이 있기 때문에 민주주의라고 볼 수는 없지만, “북한식 절대 일인체제”와 동일시하는 것도 부정확합니다. 이 점은 학계와 정보기관 분석에서도 대체로 인정됩니다.
둘째, <1953년 모사데그 축출은 오늘날 이란의 반미 정서를 이해하는 핵심 역사>라는 주장은 매우 강한 사실적 기반이 있습니다. 이 점은 거의 정설에 가깝습니다. 토론자들이 이 사건을 현재 갈등의 원점 중 하나로 본 것은 과장이 아닙니다.
셋째, <전쟁은 이란 내 민주화를 자동으로 낳지 않는다>는 주장도 사실 가능성이 높습니다. 최근 미 정보평가와 보도에 따르면, 강한 폭격에도 불구하고 이란 정권은 단기간 내 붕괴할 조짐이 크지 않고, 혁명수비대와 임시지도부가 통제력을 유지하고 있습니다. 즉 외부 군사압박이 곧바로 정권붕괴나 자유화로 이어진다고 보기 어렵습니다.
넷째, <이란은 미국보다 훨씬 약하지만, 비대칭적으로 큰 비용을 줄 수 있다>는 주장도 맞습니다. 미 정보기관과 DIA는 이란이 탄도미사일, 순항미사일, UAV를 통해 미군과 동맹국, 상업 항로에 실질적 위협을 가할 수 있다고 평가합니다.
반대로 <정치적 주장 또는 해석이 강한 부분>도 있습니다.
가장 대표적인 것은 <미국 중동정책은 사실상 이스라엘이 결정한다>는 식의 주장입니다. 토론에서는 이런 뉘앙스가 강하게 드러나지만, 이것은 구조적 영향력에 대한 해석이지 검증 가능한 단일 사실은 아닙니다. 미국 정책이 이스라엘 안보와 깊게 결부된 것은 맞지만, 미국의 독자적 전략, 국내정치, 걸프 동맹, 에너지 시장, 대중국·대러시아 경쟁도 모두 작동합니다. 따라서 “이스라엘이 미국을 조종한다”는 식으로 단선화하면 정치적 주장에 가까워집니다.
또 하나는 <트럼프가 전략이 전혀 없다>는 주장입니다. 이건 샌더스의 정치적 비판으로서는 타당할 수 있지만, 정보·군사 차원에서는 미국과 이스라엘이 실제로는 상당히 분명한 군사 목표를 갖고 움직이고 있다는 분석도 존재합니다. 예컨대 핵시설, 방공망, 미사일 발사대, 생산기반을 집중적으로 타격하는 패턴은 분명한 작전 목표를 보여줍니다. 다만 그것이 <전후 정치질서>까지 포함한 성공적 전략이냐는 별도 문제입니다.
정리하면, 이 토론은 <전쟁 비판> 자체는 상당 부분 현실과 맞닿아 있지만, 미국–이스라엘 관계 설명이나 트럼프 의도 해석은 다소 정치적 수사가 섞여 있습니다.
2. 미국 군사 전문가들의 실제 평가 <이란 군사력>
미국 군사·정보기관의 평가는 대체로 일관됩니다.
핵심은 이렇습니다.
<이란은 재래식 전면전에서 미국에 상대가 안 되지만, 미사일·드론·해상교란·대리세력을 묶은 비대칭전에서는 매우 위험하다.>
미 정보공동체 2025 위협평가는 이란의 미사일, UAV, 방공, 해군 역량이 중동의 미군과 동맹, 상업 자산에 계속 위협이 된다고 봅니다.
DIA 청문회 자료도 이란이 탄도미사일, 순항미사일, UAV를 유지·발전시키고 있으며, 실제 사용할 의지도 보여줬다고 평가합니다.
즉 미국 군사전문가들은 이란을 <강대국형 군사대국>으로 보지 않습니다. 공군, 해군, 종합 ISR, 정밀타격, 스텔스, 장거리 작전능력은 미국이 압도합니다. 그러나 미국이 두려워하는 것은 이란의 <값비싼 패배를 강요하는 능력>입니다. 다시 말해 이란은 미국을 군사적으로 이기지는 못해도,
미군 기지 타격
이스라엘 및 걸프국가에 대한 미사일 포화
호르무즈 해협 교란
에너지 가격 급등
지역전선 다발화
를 통해 전쟁 비용을 폭발적으로 올릴 수 있습니다.
3. 이란 미사일 전력의 실제 수준
이란 미사일 전력은 <중동 최대급 규모>, <다층 구조>, <점점 정밀해지는 체계>로 보는 것이 가장 정확합니다.
미국 중부사령부의 케네스 매켄지 전 사령관은 2022년에 이미 이란이 <3,000기 이상>의 탄도미사일을 보유했다고 말했습니다. 2026년 Iran Watch도 이를 인용하며, 2025년 전쟁과 2024년 두 차례 교전으로 많은 미사일을 소모했지만 여전히 중동 최대·최다종 미사일 전력 중 하나라고 평가합니다. 다만 2025년 전쟁 말 이스라엘 측 추산으로는 잔여 재고가 약 1,500기, 발사대 약 200기로 줄었을 가능성이 제기됐습니다.
사거리 면에서 이란은 공식적으로 2,000km 자율 제한을 말해 왔지만, 실제 체계는 이스라엘 전역을 충분히 사정권에 두며 일부 계열은 2,000km를 넘길 잠재력도 있다는 평가가 있습니다. Reuters와 CSIS, Iran Watch를 종합하면 주요 체계는 대략 이렇습니다.
단거리: Shahab-1 약 300km, Zolfaghar 700km, Dezful 1,000km
중거리: Shahab-3 약 1,300km, Emad 1,800km, Ghadr 1,600~2,000km
고성능/신형: Khorramshahr 2,000~3,000km 잠재, Sejjil 2,000km, Fattah-1 1,400km, Kheibar Shekan 1,450km
지상공격 순항미사일: Hoveizeh 1,350km, Paveh 1,650km 등
더 중요한 것은 <질적 변화>입니다. Iran Watch는 이란이 지난 20년간 단순히 사거리만 늘린 것이 아니라 <정밀도, 실전준비태세, 고체연료화>에 투자했다고 평가합니다. 일부 단거리·중거리 체계는 CEP가 수십 미터 수준으로 제시되고 있습니다. 예를 들어 Zolfaghar, Dezful은 10~30m 수준으로 추정되며, Khorramshahr 일부 변형도 더 높은 정밀성을 지향합니다. 반면 Shahab-3 같은 구형 체계는 훨씬 부정확합니다.
다만 한계도 분명합니다. 2025년 전쟁에서 이란 발사대의 약 3분의 1이 파괴됐을 가능성이 있고, 일부 미사일은 미·이스라엘 방공망에 많이 요격됐습니다. IISS도 2025년 평가에서 이란 미사일 전략의 한계를 지적했습니다. 즉 <수량은 많지만, 방공 돌파 효율과 지속 발사능력에는 한계가 드러났다>고 보는 편이 맞습니다.
4. 이 전쟁이 실제로 어떻게 전개될 가능성이 높은가
현재 시점에서 가장 가능성 높은 그림은 <단기 정권붕괴>도 <깔끔한 휴전>도 아닌, <제한된 고강도 소모전>입니다.
왜냐하면 첫째, 미국 정보평가는 이란 정권이 아직 붕괴 위험에 있지 않다고 보고 있습니다. 즉 “폭격 몇 주면 체제가 무너진다”는 전망은 현재로선 근거가 약합니다.
둘째, 이란의 전략은 Reuters가 정리했듯 <군사적 승리>가 아니라 <지구전 + 에너지 충격 + 지역 불안정화>를 통해 미국과 동맹의 정치적 비용을 높이는 데 있습니다.
셋째, 미국·이스라엘의 군사작전은 이란의 핵시설, 방공망, 미사일 발사대와 생산시설을 계속 깎아내릴 수는 있어도, 그것만으로 친미 정권교체나 안정적 전후질서를 만들 수는 없습니다. 이 점에서 이라크식 함정이 존재합니다.
그래서 가장 현실적인 시나리오는 이렇습니다.
<시나리오 A: 제한적 소모전 지속>
가장 가능성이 높습니다. 공습–미사일 보복–해상교란–에너지 충격이 반복되면서 어느 한쪽도 결정적 정치목표를 달성하지 못한 채 버티는 형태입니다.
<시나리오 B: 확전하지만 전면침공은 회피>
레바논, 이라크, 걸프, 호르무즈에서 전선이 넓어질 수는 있지만, 미국의 대규모 지상군 침공 가능성은 낮습니다. 비용이 너무 크기 때문입니다. 현재 공개된 정보 흐름도 공중·미사일·해상전 중심입니다.
<시나리오 C: 협상 재개>
유가, 항로, 미군 피해, 국제 압력 때문에 결국 비공식 휴전이나 제한적 협상이 재개될 가능성도 있습니다. 다만 현 단계에서는 양측 모두 체면과 억지력 문제 때문에 즉각 후퇴하기 어렵습니다.
결론
세진님이 보신 이 토론은 <전쟁 비판>이라는 큰 방향에서는 현실과 상당히 맞닿아 있습니다. 특히
전쟁이 민주화를 자동으로 낳지 않는다는 점
이란이 단기 붕괴하지 않을 가능성
미사일·드론·에너지 교란을 통한 비대칭 억지
이 세 가지는 실제 미국 군사·정보 평가와도 상당 부분 부합합니다.
하지만 토론 속 일부 표현, 특히
미국이 전적으로 이스라엘에 끌려간다는 식의 단정
트럼프에게 전략이 전혀 없다는 단정
은 분석이라기보다 정치적 해석의 성격이 더 강합니다.
한마디로 정리하면 이렇습니다.
<이란은 미국을 이길 수는 없지만, 미국이 쉽게 이길 수도 없는 상대입니다.>
그래서 이 전쟁은 지금 가장 위험한 형태인 <이길 수 없는 소모전>으로 흘러갈 가능성이 큽니다.
원하시면 다음 단계로 이어서
<이란은 테러 지원국인가?>,
<이스라엘의 억지전략 vs 이란의 억지전략>,
<북한 미사일 전력과 이란 미사일 전력 비교>
이 세 가지도 연결해서 분석해드리겠습니다.
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