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Update: Iran Wins Strategic Dominance. US Out of Options. | Prof. Steve Starr - YouTube

Update: Iran Wins Strategic Dominance. US Out of Options. | Prof. Steve Starr

Neutrality Studies

146,367 views  Mar 13, 2026  Interviews

March 13 Iran War Update: Prof. Steven Starr presents the news from the kinetic war with an overview of targeted and disabled US military installations and a discussion on the Iranian capacity and strategy as discernible after 2 weeks of warfare.

 

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Transcript

0:00Welcome back to Neutrality Studies everybody. My name is Pascal Lottaz and I am joined again today by Professor Steven Star, the former director at the

0:099 secondsUniversity of Missouri clinical laboratory science program. Professor Star has been on this show several times and I'm very glad that he's back because

0:1717 secondshe's got an update for us about Iran. Uh Stephen, welcome back.

0:2222 secondsWell, thanks for your invitation. It's a pleasure to speak with you.

0:2727 secondsWell, thank you very much for preparing this for us because you've got actually a presentation here uh on what what is happening and you know also the kinetic

0:3434 secondsuh effects of the war at the moment in the Middle East. Can you please take it over and and walk us through your presentation?

0:4040 secondsYes, I'd be glad to. Well, you know, I believe most people in the West are not getting really much news about what's really going on there. Although it's

0:4747 secondshard because they say truth is the first casualty in wartime. But um I've titled my uh presentation Iran strikes back.

0:5656 secondsThis slide shows all the red spots are the US military bases that have been hit by Iran after you know the US and Israel

1:041 minute, 4 secondsinitiated the war by killing the Ayatollah and his family.

1:091 minute, 9 secondsBut the US and Israel are not winning their illegal war against Iran. And I'll explain um you know Iran is closest

1:161 minute, 16 secondsstraight of Hormuz. This in itself is a tremendous blow against the West. that this blocks 20% of the global oil and

1:231 minute, 23 secondsliquid natural gas that flows through the straight and also 30% of ura fertilizer which is a major component of

1:311 minute, 31 secondsfertilizer here in North America and all around the world. Um the oil refineries and liquid natural gas plants around the

1:381 minute, 38 secondsGulf are shut down. Some of them are burning. They've been hit by drones and missiles. And once you shut down a plant like this, you you can't return it to

1:461 minute, 46 secondsservice quickly. it'll be out of service for months because the wells start to clog up. There's a lot of things that have to happen. You don't just throw a switch. So, what are the implications of

1:551 minute, 55 secondsthat for the global economy? Iran has destroyed most of the large US radar systems in the Gulf region. This came as

2:032 minutes, 3 secondsa total shock to the United States, I think, although I'm not sure why. Uh,

2:072 minutes, 7 secondsthis degraded the US and Israeli air defense systems, which are also running out of interceptor missiles. And this is partially because the US has supplied a

2:162 minutes, 16 secondsgreat number of these to Ukraine and also to Israel as it was destroying Gaza the last couple years. Um but also the

2:252 minutes, 25 secondsUS only manufactures 750 Patriots and about 450 THAAD interceptors a year. But you know we lack the industrial base.

2:352 minutes, 35 secondsThe US naval vessels can no longer dock at US military bases in the region.

2:392 minutes, 39 secondsTheir bases have been hit. the headquarters of the fifth fleet was wrecked by Iranian missiles.

2:462 minutes, 46 secondsSo, you know, a US destroyer uses vert vertical launch tubes to launch its interceptor missiles and tomahawk

2:522 minutes, 52 secondsmissiles. And once these are uh exhausted, they have to return to port because you have to use a crane to load these. These are vertical launches. You

3:013 minutes, 1 secondcan't just move them off of one ship and put them on and load them into the ship at sea. So this means they have to travel several days to go to India and

3:083 minutes, 8 secondsDiego Diego Garcia takes them out of the theater.

3:143 minutes, 14 secondsThe destruction of US radar in Qatar which is a phased radar system very sophisticated has reduced the warning

3:213 minutes, 21 secondstime for missile attacks in Israel to 90 seconds and they don't even know which way the missiles are coming. They just have a minute and a half. So uh this

3:303 minutes, 30 secondsreally changes things for the people of Israel.

3:333 minutes, 33 secondsLet me explain about more about this radar. If you look down there on the right corner, the ANFPS radar was based

3:433 minutes, 43 secondsat the US military base in Qatar. It it's a has a high altitude. It it can scan for 5,000 kilometers and it

3:503 minutes, 50 secondsprovides the initial location of incoming warheads. This is critical because the THAAD radars and also the

3:573 minutes, 57 secondsC-based radars that it links to require this initial information because they're more like flashlights. They can't just look around. They have to

4:054 minutes, 5 secondsknow approximately where the warhead is before they can focus in on it. So you knock out that the large radar and it more or less blinds them. They, you

4:134 minutes, 13 secondsknow, they these missiles are coming so fast, the warheads that they don't have time to look around. So basically the loss of this radar blinds the that and

4:214 minutes, 21 secondsshipbased radar by loss of initial target acquisition.

4:264 minutes, 26 secondsThis is the location of the US radar systems that were the eyes of the Iron Dome in Israel. Uh Richard Medhurst created this map. Thanks for that. I I

4:354 minutes, 35 secondsstuck the images on there. You can see there was one up in um Jordan, one in Saudi Arabia, two in United Arab

4:424 minutes, 42 secondsEmirates, and the uh the large ANFPS radar was in Qatar. And just just just to be sure like the the four there they

4:504 minutes, 50 secondsthey are not mobile right they are they're Oh yeah no these are not uh well the thad systems I'm not sure if they might

4:584 minutes, 58 secondsbe movable but they I honestly can't answer that question adequately. You need somebody like um Larry Johnson to give you but I know

5:065 minutes, 6 secondsthat they were destroyed um and there's only about 13 in the whole US inventory. So I'll I'll write the question down because I'll speak to him in an hour and a half.

5:155 minutes, 15 secondsOkay, good. Give him my regards. I'll tell him. Okay. So, this you can see the image there.

5:215 minutes, 21 secondsThat's the dome that was uh this satellite image just revealed what the Iranian drone did to the $1 billion

5:285 minutes, 28 secondsUS radar at Al Udate base in Qatar. The FPS132 upgraded early warning radar is a

5:355 minutes, 35 secondsmassive long range ballistic missile detection system with a claimed range of up to 5,000 km. It's designed to spot targets all across the Gulf, but it was

5:445 minutes, 44 secondsdestroyed by a single Iranian Shahed drone that cost only a fraction of the radar's price.

5:495 minutes, 49 secondsWow. I didn't realize I showed that I showed that video at the very beginning of the war myself. I didn't realize that was this important. Uh uh

5:575 minutes, 57 secondsyeah, I didn't either, honestly. Um but those we use those same uh systems in the United States.

6:046 minutes, 4 secondsThere's a handful of them. And uh there's only 13 TAD radars that are in the US inventory. We uh Iran has

6:136 minutes, 13 secondsdestroyed 30% of them. You can see what remains of one of them there. Oh wow.

6:186 minutes, 18 secondsIn Bahrain, uh Iran destroyed the two satcom terminals. There's a before and after satellite images.

6:276 minutes, 27 secondsIn Kuwait, Iran destroyed the satellite communications network. So you can see the comprehensive destruction of all

6:346 minutes, 34 secondsthese the loss of radar means that US and Israeli air defense is neutralized.

6:406 minutes, 40 secondsThe THAAD and Patriot missiles can't not they cannot quickly locate targets without phase array radar that was in Qatar and so they're rendered ineffective.

6:506 minutes, 50 secondsThe lower tactical intercepts from the US agency systems that are on ships in the Israeli Iron Dome then become less effective because they don't have that initial targeting information either.

7:027 minutes, 2 secondsThe loss of US radar means that Israel now has a 90-cond warning for incoming missile attack that I mentioned before,

7:077 minutes, 7 secondsbut I think it's pretty important if you're in Israel.

7:117 minutes, 11 secondsAnd you know, US ballistic missile defense systems, even with radar, cannot intercept hypersonic missiles. These missiles are maneuverable at hypersonic

7:207 minutes, 20 secondsspeeds. You know, a ballistic missile defense implies a ballistic trajectory,

7:247 minutes, 24 secondswhich is a parabola. It's a predictable trajectory. Well, hypersonic missiles are not they do not travel in a parabola. They don't take a ballistic trajectory and they are maneuverable.

7:347 minutes, 34 secondsThe US doesn't even have a working prototype of a hypersonic missile. But Iran does actually have hypersonic missiles in its inventory just like

7:417 minutes, 41 secondsRussia and China. So, you know, we can't defend against Chinese or Russian nuclear missiles that are aimed at the United States if they're coming in on

7:497 minutes, 49 secondshypersonic missiles. Uh, US BMD never worked as it was advertised. Dr.

7:547 minutes, 54 secondsTheodore Postal has done a couple really good interviews with Glenn Dieson and Nema that he elaborates on this. I I watched I've read his articles for

8:018 minutes, 1 seconddecades. He's been trying to protest in the United States that the you know the the the tests they did for the ballistic miss ballistic missile defense. They put

8:108 minutes, 10 secondshoming beacons on the incoming warheads so they're their ballistic missile defense could identify and hit them. I don't think any of our uh potential

8:198 minutes, 19 secondsenemies would be willing to do that for us.

8:228 minutes, 22 secondsYeah. So, you know, Iran warned, you know, on March 8th that if any of the regions all if they if anybody targeted

8:308 minutes, 30 secondstheir oil facilities, they would respond in kind.

8:348 minutes, 34 secondsWell, Iran refineries hit. And this video is u taken in Tran and there was so much oil that it was

8:428 minutes, 42 secondsjust flowing through all the drains in the city and ignited. It looks like from the pictures that some of the drains were even inside some of the buildings.

8:528 minutes, 52 secondsBut you can see the streets are lined with fire and the fumes from this burning oil are horrible.

9:019 minutes, 1 secondThis is uh this is what it look it looks like the end times. It looks like Armageddon.

9:069 minutes, 6 secondsYeah. Well, um Iran has responded. They they they hit the United Arab Emirates biggest refinery.

9:159 minutes, 15 secondsUm they also hit Bahrain's Baptco refinery, huge refinery.

9:229 minutes, 22 secondsSo this is spreading. This is I and I it doesn't seem to me that it's stopped yet.

9:299 minutes, 29 secondsAnd and you know, Steve, I just I just want to say like here, you know, we've had now this UN Security Council resolution,

9:369 minutes, 36 secondswhich I still don't comprehend how it could pass, how Russia and China would not veto it. the the the resolution condemning Iran for its indiscriminate

9:449 minutes, 44 secondsattacks against its neighbors, which every single time Iran responds in kind to the infrastructure of the the

9:529 minutes, 52 secondsalliance that attacks them. It's um but this is what's happening like this kind of Orwellian you know and

10:0110 minutes, 1 secondIran struck the power plant in in Hifa that it was a

10:0810 minutes, 8 secondsYeah. Wow. 's largest refinery. This is film.

10:1310 minutes, 13 secondsYou know, the these images don't make it to the evening news because Israel blocks all and everything. And the refin I've been looking around the internet.

10:2210 minutes, 22 secondsThat refinery supplied 50% or 60% of the country's domestic fuel, including 65%

10:2910 minutes, 29 secondsof its diesel, 50 to 59% of its gasoline, and 50 52% of the kerosene that's used to make jet fuel. So that that's a big blow to Israel.

10:3910 minutes, 39 secondsWell, Donald Trump, you know, it's I hate to put anything up by him, but in one of his rants, he said, "Well, if anyone if Iran does anything to stop the

10:4810 minutes, 48 secondsflow of oil within the Straight of Hormuz, they'll be hit by the United State, United States of America 20 times harder than they've been hit thus far."

10:5610 minutes, 56 secondsOkay. Well, guess what? The Straight of Hormuz is now closed.

11:0011 minutesThis is a video of a ship that was a tanker that was hit just the other day.

11:0611 minutes, 6 secondsThere's a map of the straight of Hormuz down there on the left corner. It's, you know, it's only 21 miles wide. It's not that hard to Iran can

11:1511 minutes, 15 secondsshut that down without any kind of problem with all the missiles and it it has. It also has underground naval bunkers. Um, and the US, you know, we're

11:2511 minutes, 25 secondsclaiming that we're shutting down everything. There's no targets left to hit in Iran. Well, I seriously doubt that because Iran is a country made of

11:3311 minutes, 33 secondsgranite. And these are this is an underground naval bunker that is some of it's actually underneath the sea.

11:4111 minutes, 41 secondsSo um they they prepared for this for 30 40 years and they knew that they would have to put stuff on the ground in order to

11:4911 minutes, 49 secondsmake sure it cannot be hit and they did including the boats.

11:5411 minutes, 54 secondsSo at this point 20% of the global oil and liquid natural gas is blocked and 31% of the ura that's it's a nitrogen

12:0212 minutes, 2 secondsfertilizer that's you know we use it here in Missouri it's it's a huge deal to block that at 40% of the sulfur is blocked and sulfur is a critical

12:1012 minutes, 10 secondscomponent to make sulfuric acid that's required to make phosphate fertilizer right so it's not just fuel it's the fertilizers are being blocked and this

12:1812 minutes, 18 secondsthis will probably lead to famine Um and the production has shut down as I

12:2712 minutes, 27 secondsmentioned Qar it's the world's largest liquid natural gas exporter

12:3212 minutes, 32 seconds20% of its um global G lg is production has stopped wow

12:4012 minutes, 40 secondsonce production has stopped it can take months to resume and Kuwait has halted production entirely

12:4712 minutes, 47 secondsSaudi Arabia Aramco has cut production in two fields so this process is just unfolding. Bahrain is shut down and declared porch majour but it's it's

12:5512 minutes, 55 secondslargest refinery um porch majour is when you the contract you say you can't fulfill it for you know unforeseen

13:0313 minutes, 3 secondscircumstances it's pretty drastic half of the available uh global liquid natural gas tankers are trapped inside

13:1113 minutes, 11 secondsthe Persian Gulf right now another thing that we so even even the shipping capacity is not available anymore to the global

13:1913 minutes, 19 secondssupplier even even if you had a different supplier you couldn't you you don't have the ships now because they're locked in. Right. Right.

13:2613 minutes, 26 secondsThis is another thing that I hope it doesn't continue. But if they start targeting desalination plants in the

13:3413 minutes, 34 secondsGulf, um almost all the Gulf countries have become virtually uninhabitable.

13:3913 minutes, 39 secondsLook at the percentage of drinking water. You know, 90% for Kuwait, 70 to 90% of for Qatar.

13:4813 minutes, 48 secondsIsrael gets 80% of its water from desalination. Iran only requires it gets 3% of its water. So it's much less vulnerable than these countries.

13:5713 minutes, 57 secondsIsrael Israel gets 80% of its of its drinking water from desalination.

14:0314 minutes, 3 secondsRight. I mean and they are they are foolish enough to attack Iran's desalination plants.

14:0814 minutes, 8 secondsExactly. It's a suicidal Jesus. Are declaring war on Russia, you know. I mean uh yeah, this is the only craziness in the world going on.

14:2014 minutes, 20 secondsSo I got to ask, you know, wh why are we doing this? You know, 70% of the Americans or more are against this war.

14:2714 minutes, 27 secondsOf course, we're against most of the wars. It doesn't matter who we elect. It seems like they continue. But I I found this picture of the US Secretary of War,

14:3414 minutes, 34 secondsPete Heg. Seth, I don't know if you've seen it or not. I did. I did. But check out his tattoo. It's the same.

14:3914 minutes, 39 secondsHe has a Jerusalem cross that was worn by the crusaders. Um,

14:4514 minutes, 45 secondsdo you think he's of the mindset of having a holy war in the Middle East? Yes, he is.

14:5014 minutes, 50 secondsAnd this is Netanyahu at the UN. He's holding up his image of greater Israel that was, you know, first conceived by the father of political Zionism,

14:5914 minutes, 59 secondsTheodore Hersel. And the con greater Israel is a term that comes from the Hebrew Bible uh where they said that God

15:0615 minutes, 6 secondsgave Abraham and all his descendants the right to vast land from the brook of Egypt to the Euphrates. So that's that's what's driving this.

15:1615 minutes, 16 secondsIt makes no sense to me. I mean it's crazy for the US to be behind this and all the genocide and everything. So but the Zionist Christians believe in this.

15:2615 minutes, 26 secondsThat's how Hexath is linked into this.

15:2715 minutes, 27 secondsThey believe that Armageddon will herald the second coming of Jesus Christ. Yes.

15:3515 minutes, 35 secondsSo that and Hexath is conducting prayer meetings every month at the Pentagon.

15:3915 minutes, 39 secondsThere's been reports of over 200 reports from non-commissioned officers that they they're at these meetings where their commanding officers are saying don't be

15:4915 minutes, 49 secondsafraid because you know if Armageddon you will go to heaven. You know Trump is the anointed one. It's just it's be beyond insane.

15:5915 minutes, 59 secondsBut let's consider, you know, I mentioned I don't think the US has even begin to take to take out all the missile cities that Iran has. Iran is as

16:0716 minutes, 7 secondsbig as Western Europe. These are these cities are underground. They also have air bases. Um I believe it'll take tactical nuclear

16:1516 minutes, 15 secondsweapons to to destroy these military facilities. And I think they're fully capable of using them. And some of the

16:2316 minutes, 23 secondslarger missiles are now being brought out and they're starting to hit Israel.

16:2616 minutes, 26 secondsThese uh that image of the of rockets are solid fuel rockets with a one-tonon warhead.

16:3316 minutes, 33 secondsThis a video of from a live broadcast in Israel.

16:3916 minutes, 39 secondsThat's a 2,000lb warhead hitting. That's what it's like if you're in Tel Aviv.

16:4516 minutes, 45 secondsOkay. Well, tactical nuclear weapons used against Iranian missile cities would create massive fallout. You know,

16:5116 minutes, 51 secondswe from nuclear testing in Nevada, they show that a 1 kiloton bomb has to be detonated 100 meters or 300 feet beneath the ground to prevent it from venting.

17:0117 minutes, 1 secondSo, nothing that's not going to happen.

17:0317 minutes, 3 secondsThe the B6112 uh tactical nuclear weapon that US has can only penetrate the earth to a depth of 3 to four meters.

17:1217 minutes, 12 secondsAnd the W762 nuclear warhead that's carried on some US Triton subs. We have low yield weapons that are on our subs now. Besides the the large strategic

17:2117 minutes, 21 secondsweapons, they have an explosive power of 5 to six kilotons. They can't penetrate the earth either. So if they are used, there'll be massive fallout uh in Iran.

17:3017 minutes, 30 secondsThis is an image of a a B61 variable yield bomb being dropped. And it does disappear into the earth, but it only goes about, you know, 3 to four meters deep. It'll create a massive fallout.

17:4217 minutes, 42 secondsThis is an image of um a venting from an underground nuclear test in the United States in 1970. It gives you just some

17:5017 minutes, 50 secondsrough idea of what a radioactive fallout would be if they used one tactical nuclear weapon on a a missile city. That that's lethal, all that fallout. I mean,

17:5817 minutes, 58 secondsthe United States was poisoned by our nuclear test, too, but that's sort of a subject for another time.

18:0618 minutes, 6 secondsAnd I want to mention that Iran has enough highlyenriched uranium to make 10 nuclear weapons. They had 450 kg of 60%

18:1218 minutes, 12 secondsHU and it can be enriched in 90% weapons grade um uranium in a few days. Each weapon would have an explosive power of

18:2118 minutes, 21 secondsabout 15 kilotons. That's similar to the bomb that detonated in Hiroshima. A kiloton is 15,000 tons of or a thousand

18:2818 minutes, 28 secondstons of TNT. So 15 kilotons is 15,000 tons.

18:3318 minutes, 33 secondsUh the design for these weapons is well known. You don't have to test them to know they work. They will work. And Iran certainly has the technical skill to

18:4118 minutes, 41 secondsmake nuclear warheads and mount them on their hypersonic missiles which Israel cannot defend against. Um and these

18:4818 minutes, 48 secondswarheads could also be delivered in the hold of a ship if they decided to do that. So I just want to end with one slide that I

18:5718 minutes, 57 secondsthat really struck me from the Palestinians. But you know we never see it from their perspective here. as always the

19:0519 minutes, 5 secondsPalestinian terrorists and all that, but it's an occupied territory.

19:0919 minutes, 9 secondsIsrael, it's a colonial state. These are they're colonialists and under international law, Palestinians have the right to to uh defend themselves.

19:1919 minutes, 19 secondsAnyway, hey, very brief intermission because I was recently banned from YouTube. And although I'm back, this can happen anytime again. So, please

19:2619 minutes, 26 secondsconsider subscribing not only here, but to my mailing list on Substack. That's pascalota.substack.com.

19:3219 minutes, 32 secondsThe link's going to be in the description below. And now back to the video.

19:3619 minutes, 36 secondsYeah. No, that's Thank you very much for that for that overview. I mean, this is highly highly useful. The you know, one

19:4319 minutes, 43 secondsof the things is of course that Israel and the United States try to block the news about the devastation caused inside

19:5219 minutes, 52 secondsuh uh inside Israel in order to pretend that everything is going according to plan. And I mean, Donald Trump gave this this ridiculous speech after one week of

20:0020 minutesthe war saying like, "Oh, on a scale from 1 to 10, I will give give our operation 12 to 15." I mean, the the the

20:0820 minutes, 8 secondslevel of speech is is is just quite incredible for an the childishness the childishness of the framing is quite incredible, but the the hurt and the

20:1620 minutes, 16 secondsimpact is now very real. Um, how do you think uh I mean, we're only two weeks into this, right? um if this doesn't

20:2420 minutes, 24 secondsstop I mean what does it do to the infrastructure in the Middle East uh in West Asia and and um you know we are so

20:3120 minutes, 31 secondsused in our global supply chains to just uh to just have everything ready that we don't even I think we don't we are not even aware of how many things depend on

20:4120 minutes, 41 secondsthis this gulf to be open well that's right well there are some reserves and they've opened up other reserves to try to attenuate the effects

20:4920 minutes, 49 secondsof the blockage of the straight of hormones But it's all very temporary and you know with the destruction of oil

20:5620 minutes, 56 secondsrefineries and clearly Iran is not about to to change their mind. Uh I think this

21:0421 minutes, 4 secondsis going to go on for some time and it's going to have a massive effect on the global economy. I mean there's a cascade effect already and in countries like

21:1221 minutes, 12 secondsSouth Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia factories are shutting down already. Um there's uh

21:1921 minutes, 19 secondsfuel I think Australia's declared fuel shortage. There's we're just beginning to see this and you

21:2621 minutes, 26 secondsknow so so gasoline prices have gone up a little bit in the United States but you know wait till they get up to 10 or $15 a gallon or you can't get it. You

21:3421 minutes, 34 secondsknow uh we're really in trouble and I think that Trump is going to panic. I mean I think he is panicking.

21:4121 minutes, 41 secondsApparently, they've been calling uh trying to reach Iran to have ceasefire negotiations and that's that they're doing it through Oman is what I read.

21:5021 minutes, 50 secondsYeah. Which that's the most sensible way to do it if you actually want to do it.

21:5521 minutes, 55 secondsBut uh you know Iran and I've had talks with Professor Marandi from the University of Tehran. He said very clearly, look, we're not going to accept

22:0222 minutes, 2 secondsa ceasefire until the until America not only promises to stop but actually is gone is gone out of the region. like it

22:1022 minutes, 10 secondshas to leave the region. Period. So, um they're going to continue all the economic sanctions, leave all the military bases. I don't think that's

22:1922 minutes, 19 secondson Trump's agenda. But look at what the United States did. We we began this under we were conducting peace negotiations for the second time. We

22:2822 minutes, 28 secondsattacked them during these negotiations and they killed the Ayatollah who is not just a political leader. He was the second most important religious leader

22:3622 minutes, 36 secondsin the Shia religion. I mean, this is huge. It's like a crusade, honestly. I mean, if you think about it. Uh and and

22:4522 minutes, 45 secondsthe the new Ayatollah is the son of the old Ayatollah. His family was killed,

22:5022 minutes, 50 secondshis daughter was killed, and he was injured in this attack. I seriously doubt he's going to be in the mood for uh conducting negotiations with Trump.

22:5922 minutes, 59 secondsIt's uh we're we're at an impass and it it's just But there's so much propaganda here that people they don't get it. They

23:0623 minutes, 6 secondsdon't even realize the the extent of the anger or the capabilities of Iran.

23:1123 minutes, 11 secondsApparently, the American people in the White House and even the the Pentagon didn't understand some of the capabilities either, but they're finding out now.

23:1923 minutes, 19 secondsYeah. And and just I need to share this one here with you just on the point of um of of the the holy war. Uh I mean the

23:2723 minutes, 27 secondsthe what you what you showed to us is not is absolutely right and we need to put we need to point this out uh time

23:3523 minutes, 35 secondsand again because this is not not known well enough um that there are a lot of religious extremists in the United

23:4223 minutes, 42 secondsStates um in in the US military these Christian Zionist types have infiltrated the military and there's actually an

23:4923 minutes, 49 secondsorganization called the uh the military religious freedom foundation MRFF F. I didn't know about them, but I learned

23:5823 minutes, 58 secondsabout them last week and I'm now on their mailing list. And it turns out one of the people on the MRFF board is

24:0524 minutes, 5 secondsactually Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson who's been on this channel, he's been on another channel. Yeah,

24:1024 minutes, 10 secondsLawrence Wilkerson is a is is is a very important figure and he just wrote an update send that was sent out this uh

24:1924 minutes, 19 secondslast night to everybody alerting us again about this problem. The MRFF in the last uh in the first week of the

24:2724 minutes, 27 secondsIran war received more than 200 calls from individual uh soldiers who

24:3424 minutes, 34 secondscomplained that their leading officers uh told them that this was a religious war and that they would go to heaven as long as they're not Jewish or Muslim, as

24:4224 minutes, 42 secondslong as they're Christians, they would go to heaven. You know, the end times would come and that this is a is of course an an enforcement an indoctrination of the military. But what

24:5124 minutes, 51 secondswe learn is that the officer core has already been to some extent indoctrinated. So it's not just the highest level with um with the secretary

25:0025 minutesof war. It is it goes down into the military. Right. And this is this is highly problematic. So Wilkerson actually writes in in this update which

25:0825 minutes, 8 secondshe which which he uh publishes I mean on the on their newsletter. There are so many extremely dangerous aspects of the

25:1525 minutes, 15 secondswar of choice on Iran that Israel and America are waging across the Middle East and increasingly elsewhere that Americans are largely missing a

25:2325 minutes, 23 secondsparticularly serious one with regard to their military. It's the result of what historians will likely label at some

25:3025 minutes, 30 secondsfuture date another great awakening. And what he's referring to is the uh is is

25:3725 minutes, 37 secondsis the this this kind of religious the zealatry that actually uh grapped the

25:4425 minutes, 44 secondsUnited States back in the early uh 1910s when when then actually the US went on to do the pro uh to write the 18th

25:5225 minutes, 52 secondsamendment, the prohibition uh and into the into the constitution which then led to a lot of uh negative consequences

26:0026 minutesincluding of course large-scale organized crime. crime to the point that the 18th amendment had to be uh uh undone with the 20th amendment uh in 33.

26:0926 minutes, 9 secondsAnd he's saying like this is happening again. There's so much silitary like Christian fundamentalism going on in the especially in the military branch that

26:1826 minutes, 18 secondsthis is this is causing serious damage to the nation. Um I just want to point that one out.

26:2426 minutes, 24 secondsWell, these people have not just infiltrated, they've been selected. I mean, this has been a process that's been cultivated by people like Hzath and

26:3226 minutes, 32 secondsyou know, we we go on about the dangers of a theocracy in in Iran, but what do we have going on here?

26:4026 minutes, 40 secondsYeah, exactly. This is a huge problem,

26:4326 minutes, 43 secondsof course, because I wasn't even aware that there's such a strong religious undertone from the US side. Um, and a lot of people are not aware, but this is

26:5126 minutes, 51 secondspart and parcel of the picture. So there are people who want this war for the sake of the war because it's necessary to bring about the end times. Um so when

26:5926 minutes, 59 secondsthey look at they must they they must be they must be applauding this because it gets gets

27:0727 minutes, 7 secondsthem a step closer which is really scary.

27:1027 minutes, 10 secondsAnd then we have Israel with the Samson option. I mean I I really am quite concerned. I I talked about it in an earlier presentation on your show that

27:1827 minutes, 18 secondsDr. postal had images of what Tel Aviv would look like if it was hit by a thousand one- ton warheads. Yes.

27:2427 minutes, 24 secondsAnd I think we're going to see that unfold pretty soon. Uh and I don't think Israel's will accept the destruction of its largest cities. I mean,

27:3327 minutes, 33 secondstheir three largest cities have 50% of their population. And if Iran still has I I heard Larry Johnson say they had 5

27:4127 minutes, 41 secondsto 10,000 ballistic missiles at least at the beginning of the war, I suspect there's many thousands left. So at what point will Israel start using nuclear

27:4927 minutes, 49 secondsweapons against Iran? That's I Wilkerson I believe has said that he doesn't believe that the United States would initiate nuclear weapon use. Although I

27:5827 minutes, 58 secondsI would hate to see what what would happen if uh the US naval vessel or a carrier was sunk how Trump would react.

28:0528 minutes, 5 secondsBut I I tend to agree with Wilkerson. I think the real danger is we have a rogue state Israel that's been committing

28:1328 minutes, 13 secondsgenocide for the last two years. of course with the support of the United States armed with hundreds of nuclear weapons and you know if their cities are

28:2128 minutes, 21 secondsgoing to be wiped wiped out with Iranian ballistic missiles I I don't think there's any doubt that they will use nuclear weapons. So there we go then.

28:2928 minutes, 29 secondsWhat will Russia do if a nuclear war erupts on its border? I mean there's I just hope it can be stopped. I really do. I you know I have to hope that

28:3828 minutes, 38 secondsthey're talking behind the scenes and somebody's going to come to their senses and stop this process.

28:4428 minutes, 44 secondsYeah. Yeah, I mean it would at this point it it actually does take two, no actually three to tango to stop this. Uh but the uh which which just makes it

28:5228 minutes, 52 secondseven more difficult. The the only ones who kind of don't have a choice and not no say are actually the the the kingdoms in the in the Middle East,

29:0229 minutes, 2 secondsright? I mean Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE and so on. They have they have everything to lose uh nothing to gain and no say in

29:0929 minutes, 9 secondsall of this. But um the the the three the three protagonists Iran, Israel, and the United States, although Israel and the US are are kind of of course in in

29:1829 minutes, 18 secondsunder one blanket, but the they both have in decision-making powers,

29:2229 minutes, 22 secondsespecially when it comes to nuclear weapons, right? They can they each one of them can for themselves decide that they're going to initiate it and drag the other one with him.

29:3129 minutes, 31 secondsWell, that's right. I mean, you can talk to different people and get different ideas about who's making the decisions.

29:3729 minutes, 37 secondsI think Colonel Wilkerson would suggest that the United States is directing Israel, right?

29:4229 minutes, 42 secondsBerlettic would probably say the same thing.

29:4529 minutes, 45 secondsBut um you know, I don't know. I I just see a a country that's out of control that's attacked every single one of its neighbors.

29:5529 minutes, 55 secondsUh you know, how I mean what? That's insane. And and 80% of the population apparently approves of the genocide according to

30:0330 minutes, 3 secondspolls in Israel. So that's it's hard to be sympathetic. I I don't know. I I it's it's horrible. But

30:1030 minutes, 10 secondsit is it is it is it is understandable in the sense that we can can rationally understand how a society gets there because we've seen it before, right? You

30:1930 minutes, 19 secondsjust need to look at the old cowboy movies of the 1950s, right?

30:2430 minutes, 24 secondsAnd those those evil Indians who keep attacking those those uh innocent settlers and and and kill the innocent

30:3230 minutes, 32 secondsladies on the on the trails, right? It's exactly that precisely that mentality.

30:3830 minutes, 38 secondsThe media promotes this uh racism essentially, you know, whether it's rousophobia or the Amalcch, you know,

30:4430 minutes, 44 secondsand that's, you know, when you have a Bible that's a Chafield Bible that, you know, teaches Americans for a long time that Armageddon is part of the second

30:5330 minutes, 53 secondscoming. And so you get all these Christians, everybody's primed for this.

30:5730 minutes, 57 secondsI keep trying to get and as far as rousophobia, that's racism. We don't seem to everybody thinks it's okay to hate Russia, but they don't get it that

31:0531 minutes, 5 secondsthey're so sensitive about racism here in the United States except when it comes to Russia. But that's I mean that's a separate topic, but that's the

31:1131 minutes, 11 secondsroot of our problem is that they seem to be inclined to hate people. you know, if we can make it as a group hate, you start out with the leader like Putin,

31:1931 minutes, 19 secondsthen it becomes all the Russians, and I don't know, Israel, maybe it goes further back. But I I do think it's a the populations are conditioned to hate,

31:2931 minutes, 29 secondsand it's it's really hard to overcome that.

31:3231 minutes, 32 secondsYeah. Um, one of the things now we're we're also I mean that that I wonder

31:3931 minutes, 39 secondsabout is like these these red lines on both sides, right? Because by now we are, I believe, at the threshold where all sides are thinking about the use of

31:4831 minutes, 48 secondsnuclear of nuclear weapons. But we've also seen that that Iran to every single thing the US and Israel throw at them.

31:5631 minutes, 56 secondsThey have a response. They have a pre-prepared response. And they've been very clear about that. Not only for this war, but also for the last wars.

32:0232 minutes, 2 secondsWhenever Israel did something to them,

32:0532 minutes, 5 secondsincluding blowing up their their consulate in Damascus, uh they had they had a they had a they responded in a way

32:1332 minutes, 13 secondsthat was very very calculated. And now they're they did the same last year during the 12-day war. They're doing the same thing now. They only start blowing

32:2132 minutes, 21 secondsup oil refineries, as you showed, once somebody attacked their oil refinery,

32:2532 minutes, 25 secondsright? They only they only target desalination plans in in in Israel and and and and and in the other states once

32:3232 minutes, 32 secondstheir dalination plan got targeted. So the the the message is extremely clear.

32:3732 minutes, 37 secondsIf you throw something at us, we will throw something proportionally back at you and we have the capability to do so.

32:4232 minutes, 42 secondsSo this of course then extends must extend within their planning to the nuclear level. The question to me is like if Israel threw a a nuke at them,

32:5132 minutes, 51 secondswhat would they throw back that would be proportional? And my question is could they throw back just one of a couple of their hypersonic missiles add the

32:5832 minutes, 58 secondsnuclear reactor in uh in the neg you know I've been trying to make it

33:0733 minutes, 7 secondsmake it clear that nuclear power plants become targets in war I mean we've seen that in Ukraine already y

33:1433 minutes, 14 secondsnuclear power plant not only has a reactor but it has a spent fuel pool adjacent to it where they store the used

33:2233 minutes, 22 secondsuranium rods and those are incredibly radioactive. Um, and if you hit a spent fuel pool,

33:3033 minutes, 30 secondsyou're going to release an enormous amount of radioactivity. Now, I don't know Deon Mona, I've looked at pictures of it. I believe that, you know, I'm sure they have a lot of it underground,

33:3833 minutes, 38 secondsbut it looked to me like that the reactor was at ground level. I haven't been there, but u yeah, I think that's a

33:4633 minutes, 46 secondsserious consideration. I would say though at this point, you know, Dr.

33:5033 minutes, 50 secondsproposal stated even after the 12-day war he thought that Iran would make move forward and take that 450 kg of 60%

33:5933 minutes, 59 secondsenriched uranium and go ahead and enrich it to 90% and make nuclear weapons he might talk to him about that I I think now

34:0734 minutes, 7 secondsuh the one person that was preventing that was the Ayatollah that we butchered 26 year fatwa against it well

34:1434 minutes, 14 secondsI suspect his son might uh remove that fatwa and there's also issue jihad. You know, we're almost at a point where

34:2234 minutes, 22 secondsthere's going to be a global jihad that's uh declared against the West and you know that anyway, you know, we're the the situation is not good at all.

34:3534 minutes, 35 secondsNo, the situation is absolutely the situation is absolutely horrible. So,

34:3834 minutes, 38 secondsthe the question is where are the grown grown-ups in the room that should have every interest in deescalating this,

34:4534 minutes, 45 secondsincluding of course in the Pentagon. Um you you asked me I didn't I didn't give you a good complete answer that I think

34:5234 minutes, 52 secondsit's possible that Iran would reply with nuclear weapons with on hypersonic missiles if I don't think I don't think

34:5934 minutes, 59 secondsyou can rule out the possibility that they made them and I don't hopefully people in Jerusalem and Washington are

35:0735 minutes, 7 secondsthinking that too but I don't know you know rational thought doesn't seem to enter into this you know Iran demonstrated that they could penetrate

35:1635 minutes, 16 secondsUS and Israeli air defense in the 12-day war. I mean, they they hit all these bases with hypersonic missiles that we

35:2435 minutes, 24 secondscouldn't intercept. We have the same problem in Ukraine. The Russian zirkons are coming through and smashing Ukrainian targets. What does it take to

35:3235 minutes, 32 secondsto alert the leadership of the United States that their air defense systems don't work? That's I mean I I that's why

35:3935 minutes, 39 secondsDr. Posal's been on the air ranting and raving too. that we're all frightened by this because I don't mean to say he's ranting and

35:4635 minutes, 46 secondsraving, but he's trying to make the point that these systems are fraudulent and they cannot be depended on. It's but here we are. We are depending on them.

35:5435 minutes, 54 secondsThe radar's blown up and they don't work anyway. So what comes next? You know,

36:0036 minutessomebody also made the um who who who told me that? Was it you last week that uh Iran actually still has about 19 diesel submarines that are out there?

36:1236 minutes, 12 secondsIt wasn't me, but I believe that's probably correct.

36:1636 minutes, 16 secondsYou don't see, you know, the Chinese have an electronic warship. They're that's highly sophisticated that it probably is giving targeting information real time to the Iranians and they pro

36:2536 minutes, 25 secondsthey probably have a submarine accompanying it. And u the US has to be careful about targeting anything in the vicinity of that ship because you know

36:3336 minutes, 33 secondsthen you blow up a Chinese naval vessel then you might have another problem with China. So this is a complicated

36:4036 minutes, 40 secondssituation. It it is but I mean what we are learning right now uh definitively and you know as sad as it is but these

36:4836 minutes, 48 secondsuh wars same with the Ukraine war of course like are always moments that at afterward bring some clarity you know to the actual capability right before the

36:5736 minutes, 57 secondswar we are all like engaged in a guessing game and numbers and whatnot and afterward you know you know what what one can do. So, we know now that

37:0637 minutes, 6 secondsmissile defense is a lovely dream, but the the most sophisticated missile defense system in the world, the the

37:1337 minutes, 13 secondsthree layered the three tiered system in in Israel is basically can be incapacitated and overwhelmed within a

37:2037 minutes, 20 secondsweek. So, it's for for purposes of air war useless, right? Uh we know that the same is true on the side of Iran because the United States can strike basically

37:2837 minutes, 28 secondsany target at will. So, same thing both sides. Um and and we learn that Iran in

37:3537 minutes, 35 secondsfact has massive capacity and that even after two weeks of relentless bombardment and certainly what we see in

37:4437 minutes, 44 secondsthe in the videos from the strikes in the cities is only is only a fraction of all the stuff that was then struck throughout the country and all of the

37:5137 minutes, 51 secondstunnel entries and so on and so forth and the the mobile missile launchers launchers and so on. All of those were struck but they were replaced and Iran

38:0038 minutesmaintains the capacity to shoot and fire. So that assessment was correct.

38:0438 minutes, 4 secondsThe US is not able to incapacitate this this this this missile and drone uh um

38:1238 minutes, 12 secondsability that Iran has. Um so we are at a moment of you know in a sense total missile war on both sides.

38:2038 minutes, 20 secondsWe are well think about Ukraine and how many missiles Russia's pumped into it for the last four years. They won the war with an air war there. Um, we didn't

38:2938 minutes, 29 secondsfind all the Scud missiles that were in Iraq during our Gulf Wars. They kept pulling them out. And Iran is much more sophisticated.

38:3738 minutes, 37 secondsThey they've been preparing for this war for decades. Yeah.

38:4138 minutes, 41 secondsAnd we are not going to make them back down and they will continue to pull missiles out of tunnels and bombard us,

38:4838 minutes, 48 secondsIsraeli, and maybe Gulf targets the way things are going.

38:5338 minutes, 53 secondsYeah, it's it's uh so the ability to build up underground um underground

39:0039 minutesbunkers and actually according to uh professor Marandi uh entire production facilities he said even the factories in

39:0839 minutes, 8 secondswhich we built these things are underground. So uh even if we deplete all of our stockpile we can always make more is his point. I I don't know how

39:1739 minutes, 17 secondstrue that is, but he if you look on the on YouTube, which I spent a lot of time looking at, um there's some pretty good videos of Iranian tunneling machines.

39:2639 minutes, 26 secondsI mean, Iran is very sophisticated country. Um you know, if they have underground tunnels underneath the sea,

39:3439 minutes, 34 secondsI'm sure they have plenty of them in the mountains. And we, you know, we continue to underestimate I don't I think we just have gotten to the point where we believe our own propaganda in the West.

39:4539 minutes, 45 secondsYeah. Yeah, no matter who we're facing,

39:4639 minutes, 46 secondsyou know, we're number one. They still think it's 1990 and the US has the biggest army and the best military forces in the world and nobody can compete. Well, it's not the case at all.

39:5639 minutes, 56 secondsUm, and we can see all you have to do is look at the radar installations that are destroyed and all the US military bases

40:0340 minutes, 3 secondsin the Gulf. I mean, we are leaving the Gulf in a sense because we're being driven out of it. And yeah, that's that's not the objective of

40:1140 minutes, 11 secondsthe Iranians, right? It's like driving the United States out and and um making it crystal clear to the Gulf

40:1840 minutes, 18 secondscountries that if you rem if you maintain your alliance and if you if you keep US military assets on your soil, well, you're going to be bombarded. So,

40:2640 minutes, 26 secondsyou better take those away.

40:2840 minutes, 28 secondsI wonder if Trump will figure out a way to declare victory and leave. You know,

40:3140 minutes, 31 secondsI mean, that's probably their best option at this point.

40:3440 minutes, 34 secondsI don't know how they will manage to do that, but but the real issue more is with Israel.

40:3940 minutes, 39 secondsYou know, even if the US decides to back out,

40:4240 minutes, 42 secondsI think Israel, this is a life or death struggle for both Iran and Israel,

40:4940 minutes, 49 secondsit is. But in a sense, if you then want to avoid the nuclear scenario at something's got to give, right? So uh

40:5840 minutes, 58 secondsI mean Iran the minimum Iran would have to do in order to avoid avoid a nuclear strike is to make clear that it is that

41:0741 minutes, 7 secondsit will it will not try to inhilate Israel, right? Um because otherwise otherwise Israel is at the at the uh uh

41:1541 minutes, 15 secondsexistential level at which point uh nuclear weapons in a sense must be used.

41:2141 minutes, 21 secondsWell, there was some talk about Iran doing a nuclear test in the desert to show that they had nuclear weapons to warn Israel. There's so many possible

41:3041 minutes, 30 secondsscenarios you can come up with. I don't I I really don't believe Iran would ever use a nuclear weapon unless they've been attacked with one first.

41:3841 minutes, 38 secondsI think so, too. Yeah. But um I think anything is possible if Israeli cities come under such a sustained

41:4741 minutes, 47 secondsbombardment that they are becoming wrecked and they're already in trouble now. I mean they've hit port facilities,

41:5441 minutes, 54 secondspower plants, refineries. We don't know.

41:5641 minutes, 56 secondsIsrael's got everything locked down so tight. You know, you try to look on the internet and find some videos of what the skies in Israel look like the last few nights. You won't find it.

42:0542 minutes, 5 secondsSentincom. I found a diagram by them that they maintain that you know every day the number of uh missile attacks

42:1142 minutes, 11 secondsfrom Iran has decreased which it could well be. I also saw a video of a Hezbollah launched a massive strike of

42:2042 minutes, 20 seconds150 missiles in northern Israel last night. So there's there's something things are always changing there. But I

42:2842 minutes, 28 secondsI think it's way early to write off all the ballistic missiles that Iran has manufactured for the last 30 or 40 years.

42:3542 minutes, 35 secondsRight. Right. No, the this would be another uh another foolish thing to do. But then again, like at the

42:4342 minutes, 43 secondsmoment, especially the news in the in the news media, uh we just can't trust it. I mean we we can

42:5142 minutes, 51 secondswhat we read in the media we can we can be sure is the is the thing that people want us to know. They they want us to know about this and the rest doesn't

42:5942 minutes, 59 secondsreally get to us. The the interesting thing is that a couple of a couple of these attacks are so large and are so so um devastating that they have to be

43:0843 minutes, 8 secondsreported like the attacks the radar infrastructure that was largely reported. The attacks on the oil tanker I mean that all also serves of course the the purpose of scaring everybody.

43:1843 minutes, 18 secondsOh, look, uh, Iran actually is really dangerous. Um,

43:2443 minutes, 24 secondswell, you know, I haven't trusted the media for a long time. Uh,

43:3043 minutes, 30 secondsso, thank God for channels like yours and, you know, I like the Duran and, uh,

43:3743 minutes, 37 secondsand, you know, there's Nema. I mean, I I I look to those sources for news these

43:4343 minutes, 43 secondsdays rather than Larry Johnson. Um, but you can't you can't accept if you see something as a headline

43:5243 minutes, 52 secondsin the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, you have to first you ask why is that there and what is the purpose? What do they want us to think now? Because

43:5943 minutes, 59 secondsit's the official narrative almost always. Very rarely, like you said,

44:0344 minutes, 3 secondssometimes there are some stories that are coming in because democrats hate Trump enough that they'll publish stuff that, you know, goes against the narrative that we're winning the war.

44:1144 minutes, 11 secondsBut in general, you know, we're like mushrooms. you know, we're fed we're kept in the dark and fed, you know,

44:1744 minutes, 17 seconds Kept molding around.

44:2344 minutes, 23 secondsOh my. No, no, it's But again, like the fog of war, it's just that's another thing that that I I only realized with

44:3044 minutes, 30 secondsthe Ukraine war, you know, we were so accustomed to the idea that thanks to the internet, we had limitless access,

44:3644 minutes, 36 secondslike real time access to information.

44:4144 minutes, 41 secondsAnd that's just not true. When war breaks out, the information stream seizes or like reliable information

44:4844 minutes, 48 secondsstream becomes highly we're not seeing we're not seeing reports tells you a lot too because uh

44:5644 minutes, 56 secondscensorship by omission is just as important as you know falsifying stuff.

44:5944 minutes, 59 secondsI mean we if we were winning the war we'd be seeing videos all over the place of how we're you know apparently a lot of the the planes and missiles that the

45:0745 minutes, 7 secondsUnited States has bombed have been drawings on runways. So yeah. Yeah. Right. Right. Right. the the the Iranians actually, you know, again,

45:1445 minutes, 14 secondsthis is another thing I think we learned, like the Iranians prepared to be attacked. They prepared to be able to absorb it again with these with these uh

45:2345 minutes, 23 secondsuh uh fakes with these with these little balloon uh uh thingies. It's it's very smart. It's it's so smart. It's like you you put all of these fake things on the

45:3145 minutes, 31 secondsground and then the US shoots at those instead of shooting at the real ones and they actually cannot differentiate because you make such good uh uh models

45:4045 minutes, 40 secondsuh inflatable models and and again like the the Iranian doctrine military doctrine to me by now just from looking

45:4745 minutes, 47 secondsat it from here seems very clearly a second strike capability doctrine as in anything you target we will target back

45:5445 minutes, 54 secondsand we can you cannot take away our ability to second strike. Um, so stop it. I think that's the strategy.

46:0446 minutes, 4 secondsDr. Posal uh showed some images the other day in one of his interviews where Iranian missiles were blasting out of the desert. There was a cloud of brown

46:1246 minutes, 12 secondssand. The whole silo was covered over with sand. It was completely invisible from the air. You only saw it when the missile came shooting out of the the

46:2046 minutes, 20 secondssand. I mean, how do you target those? I don't think the United States I'm sure we have great capabilities have been looking for a long time but I seriously

46:2746 minutes, 27 secondsdoubt we know where all the missile cities are located.

46:3146 minutes, 31 secondsIt's it's it's kind of difficult to wrap our heads around this but you know we are living in a nuclear age for over 80 years. nuclear technology is now nearly 100 years old and we're living in the

46:3946 minutes, 39 secondssatellite age for about almost the same time around 70 years right so and Iran had at least since since the revolution

46:4846 minutes, 48 secondssince the 80s since the war against Iraq they had time to prepare for a war in which they would be under 100%

46:5646 minutes, 56 secondssurveillance like surface surveillance and they did prepare for that well satellites can see in great detail

47:0447 minutes, 4 secondsbut they're like focusing a microscope You can't see everything all the time.

47:0847 minutes, 8 secondsAnd true,

47:0947 minutes, 9 secondsyou know, the the missiles that come out of those tunnels are on mobile launchers and they can drive them wherever they want and then launch them. So it's and

47:1747 minutes, 17 secondsthe point is that some of the more modern missiles that they're starting to launch now use a different type of launcher than the earlier ones they launched, the older variety. So just

47:2647 minutes, 26 secondsbecause we destroyed some launchers doesn't mean we destroyed the the ones that they have are starting to trot out with the newer solid fuel weapons that

47:3547 minutes, 35 secondsare hypersonic that you know you certainly wouldn't want to be on the receiving end of right and you know in a sense this what what what Iran the war that Iran is

47:4447 minutes, 44 secondswaging reminds me very much of the Swiss military strategy during the second world war of course we were not at war

47:5147 minutes, 51 secondsbut the strategy was a readout strategy the whole military re retreats into the Alps into the bunker the bunker network

47:5947 minutes, 59 secondsthat was built throughout the Alps. And then you shoot at your own infrastructure in order to make sure that the attacking Germans it was it was

48:0748 minutes, 7 secondsbelieved would be uh would have no way of using uh the Alpine uh pass and then you wage a war of resistance from the

48:1648 minutes, 16 secondsAlps. And it seems to me that the strategy with with the Iranians is very similar to that.

48:2148 minutes, 21 secondsWell, speaking of bunkers, I saw an article in Zero Hedge a couple days ago where they had a guy that's selling these doomsday bunkers, and he he was

48:2948 minutes, 29 secondsquoted. He said, "Oh, yeah, a couple of the cabinet members are buying them from me. They were texting me asking me when they're going to be ready." That I didn't find that particularly reassuring.

48:3948 minutes, 39 secondsNope. Nope. Nope. Uh, nope.

48:4348 minutes, 43 secondsAh. H insane people. That's when you have ah insane people at the helm. the whole concept. I've been talking about the environmental consequences of nuclear war for about 20 or 30 years.

48:5448 minutes, 54 secondsYeah.

48:5448 minutes, 54 secondsAnd that's something that's been completely omitted from arms control negotiations. You know, they just talk about how many warheads and the army

49:0249 minutes, 2 secondslikes to talk about u blasts. They don't even, you know, Lyn Eden, we wrote an article, Dr. Posel and I and Len Eden in

49:0949 minutes, 9 secondsthe bulletin of atomic scientists that talked about the effects of um you know a detonation of a 800 kiloton weapon above Manhattan

49:1749 minutes, 17 secondsright but Lyn Eden pointed out that in the story we base that on that army doesn't even consider thermal effects as a

49:2549 minutes, 25 secondsprimary concern because they're considered too variable but a nuclear firestorm you know a 800 kiloton warhead will on an average weather day set about 150 square miles on fire instantly.

49:3749 minutes, 37 secondsAnd anything that's in that fire zone is not going to survive because the air temperatures get above the boiling point of water. There's 300 mph winds that

49:4449 minutes, 44 secondsblowing towards the center of it because of the you know the updraft that's created and you know even if you're in a deep shelter you're going to be cooked.

49:5249 minutes, 52 secondsSo that's one nuclear weapon and you fight a war with hundreds of thousands of those and you just then you create uh a global stratospheric smoke layer from

50:0150 minutes, 1 secondall the smoke that goes into the the stratosphere. And there's scientific studies that are peer-reviewed that have been published since 2092 2010 and they

50:1050 minutes, 10 secondsthey haven't been successfully challenged that show that you know 150 million tons of smoke will block 70% of the sunlight in the northern hemisphere and 35% in the southern hemisphere.

50:2050 minutes, 20 secondsWithin a few weeks you'll have daily temperatures falling below freezing every day for up to three years in the northern hemisphere. So you can't grow

50:2850 minutes, 28 secondsfood and basically most people starve to death in a scenario like that. So why is that not part of the you know if that

50:3550 minutes, 35 secondsshould be the primary concern in any discussion of nuclear weapons and nuclear war but yet we have yet to see any leaders of the nuclear weapons

50:4350 minutes, 43 secondsstates uh acknowledge this or willing to discuss it publicly. Well, let's let's let's take a little bit of hope in the

50:5150 minutes, 51 secondsfact that after two year after two weeks of war and after four in Iran and after four years of war in Ukraine, we

50:5850 minutes, 58 secondsactually haven't seen the use of nuclear weapons and you know there are there are scenarios of people using you know just

51:0651 minutes, 6 secondsa little tactical nuclear weapon just a little one you know just a little one to send a message even that we haven't seen. So there is a little bit of hope,

51:1451 minutes, 14 secondsbut I'm I'm really I have not much much much more left to hope.

51:1851 minutes, 18 secondsI have I I have hope because there's lots of good people in this world and there's a lot of people that understand,

51:2351 minutes, 23 secondsyou know, they passed the treaty to prohibit nuclear weapons. Uh the nuclear weapons states boycotted it,

51:2951 minutes, 29 secondsbut over 50 nations have signed it. And you know that people understand this around the world, but we can't get

51:3651 minutes, 36 secondsthrough to the small click of leaders and military elite that seem to be making all the decisions that disregard public opinion around the world. But I,

51:4551 minutes, 45 secondsyou know, we can't give up on this. We have to fight. We have to make our voices heard.

51:5051 minutes, 50 secondsNo, we can't give up on it. The problem is at the moment of course nuclear weapons are about the most undemocratic thing in the world because because by

51:5851 minutes, 58 secondsdesign they are made to be to be deployed by about nine people in the world the leaders of each one of these countries. The systems are designed so

52:0752 minutes, 7 secondsthat the that the decision the button pushing power remains with about nine people in the world and and the the

52:1452 minutes, 14 secondsfallout will of course be born by 8 billion. So it's this is about the most undemocratic thing in the world, but well it is what it is.

52:2252 minutes, 22 secondsBoth the Russian and American presidents are accompanied by the nuclear briefcase at least when they're out of their out of the Kremlin and the White House. And

52:3152 minutes, 31 secondsthat's an automated uh device. It's carried by a military officer that's even when the if they go to the the Vatican, it's it's

52:3852 minutes, 38 secondsgoing to be right there with them. They can uh open that up and within less than a minute, they can select between ordering the use of one nuclear weapon

52:4552 minutes, 45 secondsor thousands. They give the permission order for the launch to take place. Then it takes uh less than 15 minutes to

52:5252 minutes, 52 secondscarry those orders out. So that they set the system up so that this can be triggered with great ease, although

53:0053 minutesthere's a lot of safeguards supposedly to prevent it. And they have prevented it so far from accidental use or unauthorized use. But it's it's hard for

53:0953 minutes, 9 secondsme to sleep at night sometimes. I know all this stuff and I just think how do we get through to people to warn them about this danger that hangs over all of

53:1753 minutes, 17 secondsour families, our you know all of our lives. Um but it's there and you know and and J Andy Jacobson wrote a book

53:2453 minutes, 24 secondscalled nuclear war scenario and I highly recommend that to anybody that wants to become educated about nuclear weapons.

53:3153 minutes, 31 secondsYeah, saw that. Um good. It's sad that we have to stop again here at at you know the doomsday scenario but it is the world.

53:3853 minutes, 38 secondsIt's hard to keep me from bringing that up, you know.

53:4153 minutes, 41 secondsHey, we we have to bring it up. We have to bring it up. It's just sad that that that we live in that world. Anyhow, um uh Stephen, thank you very much for your

53:4853 minutes, 48 secondstime. Uh people who want to read more from you should of course look up all of your papers and so on. And I have a website. It's nuclearfam.net

53:5653 minutes, 56 secondsor.org. And u you know, you can find a lot of information there. Go and find Stephen at nuclearfam.net.

54:0454 minutes, 4 secondsAnd Stephen Star, thank you very much for your time today. Well, thank you very much.

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Sejin Lifeforce 生命

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@R-Cforever

7 hours ago

He put effort into his presentation. A thousand thank yous!!!

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4 replies

@duinay3

7 hours ago

Dr Star needs to go on more channels and spread his knowledge

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7 replies

@anonanon7235

8 hours ago

I love the old school power point presentation! No glitz, just the facts.

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21 replies

@frankfromspain

3 hours ago

Rooting for Iran from Spain. I'm sick of the US criminal empire.

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3 replies

@QuestionEverything2034

6 hours ago

'War on Iran for Dummies'.   Great and easy to follow presentation, thanks.

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@Xcx284

7 hours ago

Straight to the point. Tons of information. This is a good video👍

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@yeguadavives

2 hours ago

Fantastic guest and show, thank you both gentlemen

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@rogercalza9936

8 hours ago

Dr. Starr is well informed. Impressive professor. Rare also.

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@michellelafollette

8 hours ago

Holy crap, that was a jaw dropping presentation. Great work…terrifying times

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2 replies

@deepika2097

8 hours ago

Excellent discussion. Wish more Americans watch and understand the scale of the problem

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5 replies

@denisedevaughn544

9 hours ago (edited)

I'm from America and I only watch a few Foreign podcast like this one to get accurate information. You were so right about the misinformation  being spread in America by American media. We have a couple of great independant podcasts who give accurate info. The rest of the media is garbage. Americans are completely clueless to what is happening any where. The only thing they care about is the rising gas prices. Lots of  people think we are winning cause Trump says so. So many don't seem to understand why gas prices are rising. And millions upon millions don't get this war could lasts months and the horrific consequences coming. They're clueless that it will take months to get things back on line once Iran allows the Strait to reopen. People think Trump is in control of this war and when he is done fighting, the world will go back to normal. They have no idea what Iran is capable of. No idea that Iran is kicking our butts economically by closing the Strait. No idea about the strength of the new missiles Iran has. Isreal has put a blackout on media. No doubt cause Iran is hitting them hard and now they have very little defense due to the new technology. The world order has changed and China and Russia are just watching and waiting for the United States and Isreal to bury themselves.

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19 replies

@ernestoherreralegorreta137

9 hours ago

I was fortunate to listen to this man recently and it was worth every minute of it. Absolutely outstanding guest, Pascal, thx!

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3 replies

@ricklearn16

8 hours ago

Starr gave a good explanation about the loss of THAAD radar capability which was destroyed.

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1 reply

@wy3131

7 hours ago

Scary reminder that 9 people on this planet of 8B people have the button to start a nuclear war and forcing all to enter a nuclear holocaust. That’s crazy!

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2 replies

@EshaqueElahie

9 hours ago

If ISRAEL make the FATAL MISTAKE of using NUKES against IRAN, they will be CONDONING the  END of ISRAEL.

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20 replies

@andrewpienaar4522

9 hours ago

This is the best summation of the current status of the Iran war.

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14 replies

@MarsCalls-x1i

8 hours ago

This guy is so knowledgeable!

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@andrewdarnley4608

7 hours ago

Watching from Australia and I've been raking around news outlets trying to find what is really going on. Thanks for this information, it's eye watering.

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10 replies

@michaelfroger1816

6 hours ago

Best discussion I have watched on this war. Thanks.

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@debraleighscott

8 hours ago

This the most comprehensive, well-prepared interview I have ever seen on your channel.  Excellent.

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1 reply

@kibakobo

10 hours ago

Thank you, one of my favourite guest.

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@deepika2097

8 hours ago

"We are like Mushrooms, kept in the dark and fed"😂😂😂

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3 replies

@karenhamel2796

8 hours ago (edited)

The western media is hard core propagandizing hatred for Iran, manufacturing concent for war. Thank you for sharing reality, as challengjng as it is to hear. Hang in there everyone.

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@jurinaobelix

3 hours ago

Thank you for your presentation! Fantastic! Also very scary. Thank you both.

From Europe ❤

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@Christine-ry1qq

4 hours ago

Facts 

Are rare commodity on MSM.

Thankyou gentlemen .

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@gracebgray

9 hours ago

Thank you for the stats & facts, Steven Starr & Pascal.🌺

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@Joeyxyx

9 hours ago

Prof. Starr is well versed. Hope to see more of him on your channel.

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@bjwnashe5589

7 hours ago

Excellent presentation. We are in deep trouble.

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@gooseypig84

7 hours ago

Thank you for bringing Steven Starr in to provide his considerable insight into current matters. Much appreciated.

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@Sanskrit2016

9 hours ago

THIS IS THE END OF WESTERN COLONIALISM/IMPERIALISM @500 YEARS@ GLOBAL SOUTH

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@Grizzleface

7 hours ago

this was so damn good!!! thank you professor!

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@amandacollyer645

8 hours ago

Oh. Well, this is much worse than I realized, thanks.

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@BRAVEONPRECIOUS

8 hours ago

Absolutely lunacy to allow power to Psychopaths 💥😩

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@marcelinoperez2926

8 hours ago

Trump is a criminal, he is being blackmailed by Netanyahu, and he needs war because of the Epstein files, and Israel probably has several other means of exerting pressure.

That is why Netanyahu has been to the White House so often.

Netanyahu needs war because of his crimes, because otherwise he will end up in prison.

Herzog did not pardon him, even though Trump publicly begged for Netanyahu.

And why was Narendra Modi,

Prime Minister of India, also a racist and Muslim hater, visiting Netanyahu two days before the start of the war against Iran?

Possibly because of Pakistan, also a nuclear power. To obtain his protection?

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@Jose-w9x9x

8 hours ago

Excellent guest Pascal!

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@EclecticQi

9 hours ago

Thank you both for a very interesting, informative, and jaw dropping conversation! 

Also, Thank you Iran!

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@tonte5115

3 hours ago

the visual aid was an excellent idea, especially when explaining the THAAD system. hoping to read Starrs work/hear some more from him going forward

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@kaboom4986

7 hours ago

The damage to the environment!  Weather changes, our air quality will suffer

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1 reply

@ashog1426

8 hours ago

Iran has the right to defend itself.

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@KKK-u2y

2 hours ago

Brillant interview ❤

Greetings from Denmark 🇩🇰🇩🇰

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1 reply

@ThanosTaf

5 hours ago

Danke Pascal. Hervorragendes Interview!

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@davidl3985

9 hours ago

Thank you!

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@noranoman5415

1 hour ago

Bravo and thank you, Pascal,  and , Mr. Starr. So worrisome but important to voice this scary issue.

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@giankirusso

6 hours ago

This is without a doubt the best video seen since this war has started.

Thankyou guys 

This whole thing is really fcked up

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@Kreator-p6c

1 hour ago

Great guest, great interview, thanks for sharing.

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@DavidDavidson-t3w

7 hours ago

I completely agree with your assessment. For nearly 47 years, U.S. sanctions have severely affected Iran and its people. The Iranian people have suffered enough, enough is enough. They are tired of this situation.

Now they keep saying that Iranians are trying to use drones in California, but many of these claims are based on unverified information. It feels like they are trying to portray Iranians as bad people, which is not fair to the Iranian people.

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@JoseRodriguez-ju4qv

6 hours ago

Genial episodio gracias Caballeros!!!✌🏼☕

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@nassimsabba8922

9 hours ago

Is that what is called decolonization?

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@iamnot1

4 hours ago (edited)

❤. Superb episode! Thank you, Both, professors Pascal Lottaz and Steven Starr 🙏🙏

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@armondeushon7892

10 hours ago

ABSOLUTELY love this channel and Mr Star. Pascal is very knowledgeable and not MSM which is a win ; win. Go Iran, they are trying to genocide you like the Vietnamese, palastinians and now Iranians, all for oil dominance. When is america going to stop its evil ways. The world wants peace not amrikas wars.

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@SA-xk5jf

2 hours ago

Very interesting, thank you gentlemen. So grateful for honesty ❤

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@Chris-93134

8 hours ago

Well, it seams to me that so called military leaders are not really in charge since more than 100 years but more likely the eugenicist, racist and fascist morons at Wall Street.

Thanks a lot for your work Steve and Pascal and for sharing you insights with us!

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@harrikiiskinen1571

7 hours ago

Brilliant presentation; thank you profs.

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@antoniovillanueva308

10 hours ago

We just lost a refueling plane over Iraq. Allegedly.

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@Kaveh-r6v

33 minutes ago

If only more Americans were as informed as Mr. Starr.

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@edwardcampbell1305

9 hours ago

Israel's hubris and ambition has bitten off more than the world can chew. If every country in the world wasn't on board with BDS yet, they are now. Zionists should be shoved off into Gaza and hand over the occupied territories to Palestinians. All the "equity" held by Zionists outside of the country should be liquidated and sent to Iran and divided up decently.

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@CocoaMewsCafeHomestay

7 hours ago

A very awakening discussion with good presentation by Prof Steve. Sensible, factual and no bullshits.

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@adamracks

9 hours ago

Trump is now in the FO phase of FAFO

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@loserkid9973

8 hours ago

Haven’t heard anything from the Orange Clown with in a couple of days now must have been losing the war😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢

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@DustinDWin

8 hours ago

Thanks for the powerpoint.  Good summary.

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@juliethurner4099

3 hours ago

Thank you both, fascinating!

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@dorothyharris6596

1 hour ago

Pride goes before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall.

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@bunyip5841

9 hours ago

All the US military infrastructure in west Asia took decades and billions to build. That won't be replaced overnight, if at all.

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@Thaai50

2 hours ago

Just found this video, and so pleased I did. Thank you !

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@GaragePlus-i6s

9 hours ago

Thank you both for thr information.

Mark

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@BobLuddle

9 hours ago

This conflict as well as Ukraine are economic wars.

The G-7 is out of money and out of resources.

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@djrudd8455

8 hours ago

This was really informative, thank you

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@exunitaevires

9 hours ago

What was the United States thinking? What was Trump, his administration, Congress, CIA, Pentagon thinking? That what you could kill a President and their nation would just fold?? How juvenile are you to believe that Iran would just fold in half because ya killed their President?? Iran is a military state. You could kill all of their leaders and they'd still function without a government body because they're a military nation. They've offensive/defensive weaponry. Congrats @Trump, you set back the U.S. Markets at least by 20 years. "Make AMERICA broke again" yeah? If you Americans are smart especially you "MAGA" supporters, you'll seek to impeach Donald Trump.

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@PhiliusMaximus

5 hours ago

Tired of bloody wars and military spending, at least we get real news here. Thank you Pascal and Prof. Starr

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@ankicasilic5303

5 hours ago

Dr Star and Professor Pascal deserve to be heard , because they are trying to prevent nuclear war.❤❤ respect for both 👏

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@konakaucoffee1496

5 hours ago

Great guest Pascal!  Dr. STAAR IS A STAR!!!!❤

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@Kelannwat

5 hours ago

Steven, I can’t sleep either. And I don’t want to worry my families or friends. They are so far removed from what’s happening, that I’ll sound like a nut!

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@Queenofcore

8 hours ago

Even tactical Nuke won’t eliminate them because they are so many and redundant.   They planned for this.

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@tonyedward6909

5 hours ago

Great guest and information

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@BobLuddle

9 hours ago

The US Electoral Industry spent well over $15 billion to install this government.

What are they planning on creating in the aftermath.

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@lunarwireable

8 hours ago

Armageddon is going to plan then?!

Let's pray that Iran wins.

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@cobar5342

4 hours ago

Steven Star is very good to listen to. He communicates his knowledge very well

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@littleangel18

6 hours ago

Great presentation

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@jillabraham8202

7 hours ago

Excellent podcast- thank you!

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@privateer-g4t

5 hours ago

The media in the UK are not saying anything about all this and essentially how badly this war has gone.

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@silversoul1124

2 hours ago

Thank you to you both! Terrible times we are in.

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@camaycama7479

7 hours ago

Thanks for sharing your wisdom

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@km-te7yd

1 hour ago

Thank you for wonderful guest. Knowledgeable.

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@ReneeChristopher

7 hours ago

EXCELLENT interview, thank you.

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@danielteame4184

7 hours ago

Fantastic interview 👍👍👍👍👍👍

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@danchiappe

5 hours ago

Thank you for this. Excellent discussion

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@lakadeema

7 hours ago

Great guest. Thank you from Australia

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@ReleaseKraken-r9c

7 hours ago

Outstanding presentation by Professor Starr and thank you for the discussion!

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@HonResiste

56 minutes ago

Excellent & clear explanation! Thank you, Dr. Starr & Prof. Pascal!! Great video!

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@soniavadnjal7553

4 hours ago

A great guest. Informed and informing.  Succinct and factual. Just brilliant.

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@martell203

33 minutes ago

I really appreciated him bringing the slides and putting things in context.  Very informative.

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@netherlandgernamn

7 hours ago

boss Steven is full , thamk you for sharing boss

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@BarbaraStöckl-b8n

3 hours ago

Thank you for the interview ❤

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@darleneuna

10 hours ago

Israel needs to go

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@njigyfd

8 hours ago

excellent discussion - great guest - thank you

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@Danny71891

6 hours ago

Great job on this. Thanks for all the info gentlemen!

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@szakacsfulop

8 hours ago

Great discussion.Thank you both.😅

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@MReza-nq3pd

7 hours ago

Thank you for sharing. Very informative ❤❤❤

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@yvonneyork1263

8 hours ago

Valuable intelligence , on point, no filler.  Wow.

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@theresabarzee1463

3 hours ago

Today (or yesterday's?) w/ dear Prof. Richard Wolff & the great prof. Michael Hudson give a comprehensive fantastic overview! With Nima! Stunningly clear, jam-packed w/truths. A must see. Twice. And shared.

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@marianaix

2 hours ago

Very good and much needed info! Thank you both!

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@sporedney

4 hours ago

Snatched defeat from the jaws of hegemony. Only hell after this.

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@Chess-o-naut

8 hours ago

USA and Israel are going down...

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@YashaVassell

4 hours ago

Wars are easy to start. As we say in Iran, it takes an idiot to block a water well by rolling a rock into it but it takes 10 wise men to remove it. We pray that saner minds will prevail and this insanity will come to an end. We also pray for our Arab friends in the Persian Gulf, we take no pride or pleasure in seeing their economies coming to a halt.

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@caribbeanchild

4 hours ago

Excellent Gentlemen. Thank you.

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@prepurstep9669

5 hours ago

I can see why the good professors last name is Starr he really is ✨️🙏

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@ThePeterR66

4 hours ago

thanks a lot to both of you

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@Lurch685

5 hours ago

Excellent presentation and very talented presenter. Well done both of you

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@reinhardscherer2860

7 hours ago

Not to forget that Russia was a huge supplier of fertilizer before thew sanctions. That really does add up in a critical way for the world food production.

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@jimbob5848

7 hours ago

One of the tightest, excellent presentations/conversatons  I've seen on a potentially, likely,  merging catastrophe. Thanks,.

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@DHall-xz7ke

17 minutes ago

Steven Starr, I remember his excellent presentations on Fukushima and radiation.

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@kivalurswaminathan2197

10 hours ago

If that reduces their ability to kill school children it’s great news.

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@Microbubbles683

6 hours ago

So many brilliant scientists from Iran in Australia. So good luck, I can imagine the teams working to prepare for this foreseen war

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@valevisc-r1t

3 hours ago

Wow. Great interview, great (and horrifying) presentation. Thanks for your job, now it’s also our job to spread the information.

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@NobHillSF

9 hours ago

15:25 Hegseth doing prayer meetings monthly at the Pentagon??!!

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@khairdaoud981

6 hours ago

Excellent analysis, thank you sir.

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@catgir5x

8 hours ago

love your informative programs!

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@marthadaffue3430

19 minutes ago

Proud of Iran!!!

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@RuthBrown-tm2gt

8 hours ago

France 24 English Channel has some insightful reporting from Israel. Look at the last 2 days from their correspondent in Jerusalem.  She even uses the word Palestine. It is devastating.

She talks about missile volumes  and then the decline and then the massive increase in the last day. Then she addresses the

Netanyahu government Power grab, no schools, siege mentality and frustration of people sleeping in tents in underground parking garages, massive attacks in Northern Israel from Lebanon. Gaza, and Settler land grabs and violence in the West Bank.  and PM Netanyahu has in 2 weeks not addressed the people of Israel directly.

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@denisekelsall9772

6 hours ago

Thank you. Wonderful coherent interview.

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@57Carlibra

6 hours ago

This is a very scary time.  😢

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@audreymak2084

5 hours ago

This is a very informative podcast. Thank you, the world needs to hear this.

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@salehsammani6557

7 hours ago

Iran is fighting the Epistine class of the world, it is a fight between just and evil

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@danielhase4433

3 hours ago

another highlight on a great channel! Thank you

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@bassedtaz

6 hours ago

Great guest, good convo, much appreciated. Insta sub

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@EDLARKIN-r8z

9 hours ago

Thank you, Pascal.

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@aquddus1907

6 hours ago

Brilliant overview, thank you both. Not many have all this information in one compact place. So thank you once again.

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@Morning_Rays

9 hours ago (edited)

Humans fighting for resources based upon color or country is such a shallow thinking. Instead of taming our negative emotions we let them dictate our actions.

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@Steve-qt9ce

3 hours ago

Great discussion❗

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@karenhamel2796

8 hours ago

The insane greed of the west has created this war and the impending destruction of the world.

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@andrewpert3681

5 hours ago

great show today.

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@congruent-thoughts

7 hours ago

Even it’s 1990 style this was a better presentation this time.

Frightening and surrealistic times, no matter how we present it. Thank you both. 🙏🏻🕊️

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@JørgenDeanKønig

4 hours ago

Thanks to both, Spot On

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@jc9134

8 hours ago

We should be creating a database of the locations of these elite bunkers and ensure that their ventilation systems are targeted if they destroy the world… If that day ever comes, I hope that sufficient military personnel remain, who will not allow the scum that killed their families to escape responsibility… Assuming their AI’s haven’t already killed them along with the rest of humanity…

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@davinajanes6275

8 hours ago

excellent guest. worrying situation. Also from MO, and yes, fertilizers can bring farmers to bankrupcy.

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@JosephTraficanti

7 hours ago (edited)

Let us watch as the people who are able to operate the levers of power come together 

in the coming days.

We will see how dysfunctional the system of government has been shuttered.

We are in unknown territory at this time.

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@4spikers

5 hours ago

Excellent PowerPoint presentation along with a great discussion!  Thank you, Professor Star, thank you, Pascal!... Blessings to you for sharing your knowledge.  Please come back again!

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@poyaispanic5269

8 hours ago (edited)

tunnels with attack boats under the sea and underground air bases is some sci fi shit. we fucked with the wrong country

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@cakeofthepan2233

5 hours ago

Steven is a good guy.

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@robinkelly1770

4 hours ago

Truth was the first casualty of trumptime

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@stanleymcintyre8100

1 hour ago

Thank you, subscribed.

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@joshuabarlow9048

8 hours ago

PbSo for batteries that run our entire logics chain, clothing will go way beyond food

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@DWF468

2 hours ago

California psychologist here just want to thank you both. Outstanding presentation

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@kfelb8676

6 hours ago (edited)

Thankyou both, horrifying realities, let's hope the world listens as we certainly seem to be on a precipice of profound change.

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@kimoandrews5802

6 hours ago

Thank you prof starr. Miz

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@De_Bars_Gullible_Travels

9 hours ago (edited)

Is it not the insurance companies that have stopped the ships from moving??

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@CuriousLayperson

7 minutes ago

PS great presentation. ❤ us news is more like reality TV

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@p5eudo883

7 hours ago

Seeing a straightforward power point presentation (or equivalent) is so much better than some stupid AI-generated animations. I appreciate the informative approach.

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@Tiktokspreader

8 hours ago

🇨🇦🤲👏👏👏👏 great job

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@PaulMurphy-y4y

4 hours ago

Brilliant interview and guest.  Very good details, information, and rhythm in today's analysis of our current savage war against civilization. Well done

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@ginalibrizzi5204

6 hours ago

Thank you both for this informative and rational discussion.  It's stabilizing to know that intelligent humans do exist.  The demons and madmen draw all the attention.

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@bluefen

5 hours ago

Great guest...😊

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@CariMachet

9 hours ago

What is not discussed is that the jewish mafia are actually targeting America > attacking Iran is a foil and the history of the jewish mafia regarding war > they funded Napoleon > the jewish mafia has threatened America with the nuclear bombs they have > some 100 it is thought as no one knows they won’t let inspectors in > they stole the materials and plans from America long ago and Jonathan Pollard stated that in one instance with Kissinger that the jewish mafia threatened him with a nuclear strike and he was blackmailed to do what they wanted > hard to believe but maybe it was more of a cover story for Kissinger because he was happy to do whatever the jewish mafia wanted his entire life

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@alphisro2888

8 hours ago

Dont forget that in case country wants to get oil suply they have to send US and Israeli Diplomats out of the country.

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@giulianoapostata

4 hours ago

Thanks!!

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@Mister_42

8 hours ago

11:45 thousands of years - that’s why they chose those mountains

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@sandrapatten978

46 minutes ago

thank you.

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@hospagalief

10 hours ago

Viva Iran viva

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@pesez2

4 hours ago

Thank you both for these very valuable informations! Great channel, keep up the good work!

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@taffyandbeanz

2 hours ago (edited)

So much destruction just so one man can stay in power and stays out of prison for corruption

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@sislater6334

6 hours ago

Great news thanks 🎉

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@huhwhathappenednow

9 hours ago

Isn't urea also used for DEF fluid for clean diesels? Required for operating most commercial vehicles? That urea?

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@SayceBuckleyFreak

5 hours ago

fantastic video

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@cecilepham7357

7 hours ago

An expert with long arms in getting info from the Gulf said that one of the Gulf country's leader called Trump and asked or told him "who gave you the permission to put our region on fire ?"

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@Nic-f5w

2 hours ago

​"Man will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest."

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@Sanskrit2016

10 hours ago

THE MESOPOTAMIAN CIVILIZATION AND THE BABYLONIAN CIVILIZATION.  THE 2 OLDEST /GREATEST CIVILIZATIONS IN THE WORLD.  IRAQ/IRAN IS THE CENTER OF THE CIVILIZED WORLD

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@ButtaPhX

8 minutes ago

100%Factual information💯🎯,% !❕❕

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@marietapiegeler5789

6 hours ago (edited)

Very sad and fearful

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@seancashin7963

5 hours ago

Great War  jornalisam spot on with  what’s going on.

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@Vladviking

10 hours ago (edited)

The THAAD radars shown are moveable, not  unlike a tractor trailer rig you see on the highway.

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@justicetruth9079

6 hours ago

Great presentation! thank you 🙏

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@say_when5988

7 hours ago

As a Christian I find the lunatics running our country more dangerous than the other lunatics running theirs.

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세진님, 요청하신 스테판 스타 교수의 <이란의 전략적 승리: 미국은 옵션이 없다> 영상 내용에 대한 요약과 평론을 보내드립니다. 본 요청에 따라 요약과 평론 부분은 <해라> 체를 사용하여 작성했습니다.

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요약: 중동 전쟁의 대전환과 이란의 전략적 압승

1. 개전 2주간의 전황: 미·일 공조의 붕괴

2026년 3월 현재, 미국과 이스라엘이 이란의 최고 지도자와 그 가족을 살해하며 시작된 전쟁은 2주째에 접어들었다. 서구 미디어의 보도와 달리, 스테판 스타 교수는 미국과 이스라엘이 이 불법적인 전쟁에서 패배하고 있다고 진단한다. 이란은 샤헤드(Shahed) 드론과 미사일을 동원해 카타르, 요르단, 사우디아라비아, 아랍에미리트(UAE) 등에 분산된 미군의 핵심 레이더망을 파괴했다. 특히 카타르 알 우다이드 기지의 10억 달러 가치 AN/FPS-132 레이더가 단 한 대의 저렴한 드론에 의해 무력화된 것은 치명적이다. 이로 인해 이스라엘의 아이언 돔과 미국의 사드(THAAD) 시스템은 조기 경보 능력을 상실하여 미사일 방어 경보 시간이 90초로 단축되었으며, 목표물 포착 자체가 불가능한 상태가 되었다.

2. 에너지 및 물류 봉쇄: 글로벌 경제의 파열

이란은 호르무즈 해협을 봉쇄함으로써 전 세계 석유 및 액체천연가스(LNG) 유통량의 20%, 비료의 핵심 성분인 요소(Urea)의 30%를 차단했다. 카타르의 LNG 생산은 중단되었고, 쿠웨이트와 사우디아라비아의 주요 유전 생산량도 급감했다. 이 해협은 폭이 21마일에 불과해 이란의 미사일과 해저 벙커에 보관된 함정들만으로도 충분히 통제가 가능하다. 이 봉쇄의 여파로 한국, 대만, 인도네시아의 공장들이 멈춰 서기 시작했으며, 호주는 연료 부족을 선언하는 등 세계 경제에 카스케이드 효과가 나타나고 있다.

3. 미 군사력의 한계와 산업적 맹점

미국은 우크라이나와 이스라엘에 대한 지속적인 지원으로 인해 요격 미사일 재고가 바닥나고 있다. 패트리어트 미사일은 연간 750기, 사드는 450기 정도만 생산 가능한 수준이라 현재의 소모전을 감당할 산업적 기반이 부족하다. 또한, 지역 내 미 해군 기지들이 타격받아 함정들이 미사일을 재장전하기 위해 인도나 디에고 가르시아까지 며칠씩 이동해야 하는 상황에 처했다. 반면 이란은 러시아, 중국과 마찬가지로 미국이 방어할 수 없는 극초음속 미사일을 보유하고 있으며, 이는 핵탄두를 탑재하여 이스라엘 도시를 타격할 수 있는 실질적 위협이 된다.

4. 전쟁의 광기: 종교적 근본주의와 전술 핵무기

스타 교수는 미 국방부 내부에 침투한 '기독교 시오니즘'의 위험성을 경고한다. 피트 헤그세스(Pete Hegseth) 국방장관을 비롯한 지휘관들이 이 전쟁을 예수가 재림하는 '아마겟돈'으로 인식하며 병사들에게 성전을 독려하고 있다는 증언이 잇따르고 있다. 이스라엘 역시 50%의 인구가 거주하는 3대 도시가 이란의 미사일 공격으로 파괴될 위기에 처하면 '삼손 옵션'(핵 보복)을 선택할 가능성이 높다. 미국은 이란의 지하 미사일 기지를 파괴하기 위해 B61-12 같은 전술 핵무기 사용을 검토할 수 있으나, 이는 이란 전역에 치명적인 방사능 낙진을 뿌리는 결과를 초래할 뿐이다.

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평론: 제국주의의 오만과 아마겟돈의 문턱

스타 교수의 분석은 서방의 군사적 우위라는 신화가 현대 비대칭 전력과 지정학적 현실 앞에서 어떻게 산산조각이 나고 있는지를 적나라하게 파헤친다. 이 강연은 단순한 전황 보고를 넘어, 서구 제국주의의 오만과 종교적 광기가 결합했을 때 인류가 직면할 수 있는 최악의 시나리오를 경고하고 있다.

1. 비대칭 전쟁의 승리: 기술이 아닌 전략의 승리

본 강연에서 가장 충격적인 대목은 10억 달러짜리 레이더가 단 한 대의 저렴한 드론에 의해 무너지는 장면이다. 이는 미군의 군사 기술이 우수하더라도, 가성비와 물량 공세를 앞세운 이란의 비대칭 전략에는 무용지물일 수 있음을 시사한다. 이란은 지난 40년간 서방의 침공에 대비해 국토를 거대한 화강암 벙커로 개조했고, 생산 시설까지 지하화했다. 반면 미국은 1990년대의 영광에 취해 상대의 능력을 과소평가하며 스스로의 선전에 속아 넘어갔다. 이는 기술적 우위가 곧 승리를 보장하지 않는다는 현대 전쟁의 냉혹한 진리를 보여준다.

2. 에너지 패권의 역설: 봉쇄된 세계 경제

이란의 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄는 단순한 군사 행동이 아니라 세계 경제의 목줄을 쥔 전략적 한 수다. 스타 교수가 지적하듯이, LNG와 석유뿐만 아니라 식량 안보와 직결된 비료 성분까지 차단된 상태에서 세계 경제는 전례 없는 기근과 붕괴에 직면할 것이다. 이는 미국이 이란에 대해 가해온 경제 제재가 오히려 부메랑이 되어 서방 진영의 파멸을 부르는 역설적인 상황을 초래했다. 미국이 '옵션이 없다'고 진단하는 근거는 바로 여기에 있다. 군사적으로 이란을 제압하려 할수록 세계 경제의 심장은 멈추게 된다.

3. 내부의 적: 종교적 근본주의의 위험성

가장 우려스러운 부분은 전쟁의 동력이 합리적 국가 이익이 아닌 '종교적 광기'에서 나오고 있다는 점이다. 미 국방부 내 기독교 시오니스트들과 이스라엘의 극단주의자들이 이 전쟁을 종말론적 성전으로 규정하는 순간, 외교적 협상이나 이성적 판단은 자취를 감춘다. 이는 핵전쟁의 문턱을 낮추는 가장 위험한 요소다. 인류의 운명이 아마겟돈을 고대하는 소수의 광신적 지도자 손에 달려 있다는 스타 교수의 통찰은 민주주의와 국제 질서의 무력함을 날카롭게 비판한다.

4. 핵전쟁과 '핵 겨울'의 공포

강연의 후반부는 핵무기 사용의 실질적 결과인 '핵 겨울'에 집중한다. 전술 핵무기조차 대기를 검은 연기로 덮어 농작물 재배를 불가능하게 하고 수십억 명을 굶어 죽게 할 수 있다는 과학적 데이터는 섬뜩하다. 핵 보유국들이 이 사실을 공공연히 무시하며 전쟁을 지속하는 것은 인류 전체에 대한 범죄다. 스타 교수는 이 암울한 현실 속에서도 50개국 이상이 서명한 핵무기 금지 조약과 깨어 있는 시민들의 목소리에서 희망을 찾으려 한다.

결론적으로, 이 강연은 현재의 중동 전쟁이 이란과 이스라엘의 국지전을 넘어, 서방 중심의 세계 질서가 종언을 고하는 거대한 전환점임을 말해준다. 미국은 더 이상 무력으로 세상을 통제할 수 없으며, 이제라도 광기를 멈추고 이성적인 대화의 장으로 나와야 한다. 그렇지 않으면 인류는 그들이 고대하던 '아마겟돈'의 참혹한 현실 속에서 최후를 맞이하게 될 것이다.

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세진님, 위 요약과 평론이 원하시는 수준의 깊이와 형식을 갖추었기를 바랍니다. 혹시 이 중 특정 부분(예: 경제적 여파나 종교적 배경 등)을 더 자세히 다루길 원하시나요? 혹은 다른 관련 자료에 대한 분석이 필요하시다면 언제든 말씀해 주세요. 도와드릴 준비가 되어 있습니다.

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<Update: Iran Wins Strategic Dominance. US Out of Options – Prof. Steve Starr>

요청하신 대로 약 <1,500단어 수준의 요약 + 평론>으로 정리했습니다.

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1. 내용 요약

1) 강연의 기본 구조

이 문서는 핵무기 전문가로 알려진 스티브 스타(Professor Steve Starr)가 진행한 인터뷰 형식의 강연을 정리한 것이다. 그는 최근 중동 전쟁 상황을 분석하면서 다음과 같은 핵심 주장을 제시한다.

1. 이란은 전쟁에서 전략적 우위를 확보했다.

2. 미국과 이스라엘의 군사 시스템은 예상보다 취약하다.

3. 걸프 지역 인프라 파괴가 세계 경제에 심각한 충격을 줄 수 있다.

4. 핵전쟁 위험이 실제로 존재한다.

5. 미국 내부에는 종교적 극단주의가 군 정책에 영향을 미치고 있다.

강연 전체는 크게 세 부분으로 나눌 수 있다.

• 군사 상황 분석

• 중동 경제·에너지 시스템 영향

• 핵전쟁 위험과 정치적 구조

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2. 군사 상황 분석

1) 미국·이스라엘 방공 시스템의 취약성

스타는 가장 중요한 사건으로 카타르에 있던 미국의 AN/FPS-132 조기경보 레이더 파괴를 언급한다.

이 레이더는 다음 역할을 한다.

• 탄도미사일 탐지

• 초기 발사 위치 계산

• 방공 시스템에 요격 정보 제공

그는 이 레이더가 파괴되면 다음 결과가 생긴다고 주장한다.

• 이스라엘의 경보 시간이 약 90초 수준으로 감소

• Patriot, THAAD 시스템의 효율 급감

• 미사일 방어망 전체의 눈이 사라짐

이 사건을 그는 “전쟁의 전환점”으로 해석한다.

Iran Wins Strategic Dominance. …

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2) 이란의 미사일 능력

그의 분석에 따르면 이란의 핵심 전략은 다음과 같다.

(1) 대량 미사일

이란은

• 탄도미사일

• 순항미사일

• 드론

을 동시에 사용하는 포화 공격 전략을 사용한다.

(2) 이동식 발사대

이란은 산악 지형과 지하 터널을 활용한 이동식 발사 시스템을 구축했다고 주장한다.

따라서

• 공중 폭격으로 제거하기 어렵고

• 발사 위치 예측이 어렵다

는 것이다.

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3) 미군 기지 공격

그는 이란이 이미 여러 미군 시설을 공격했다고 말한다.

대표 사례로 다음을 언급한다.

• 카타르 미군 시설

• 바레인 통신 시설

• 쿠웨이트 위성 통신망

이러한 공격은 미국의 작전 능력 자체를 약화시키기 위한 전략적 공격이라고 설명한다.

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4) 미국 해군의 한계

강연에서 그는 미 해군 전력에 대해서도 비판적이다.

핵심 주장:

• 미사일 수량 제한

• 재보급 문제

• 장기전 취약성

예를 들어 구축함이 미사일을 모두 발사하면 다시 항구로 돌아가 재장전해야 한다는 점을 지적한다.

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3. 에너지 전쟁과 세계 경제

스타는 이 전쟁의 핵심이 석유와 에너지 인프라라고 주장한다.

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1) 호르무즈 해협

그는 호르무즈 해협의 중요성을 강조한다.

이 해협은

• 세계 석유의 약 20%

• 해상 원유 수송의 약 30%

가 통과하는 지역이다.

Iran Wins Strategic Dominance. …

이곳이 차단되면 세계 경제가 크게 흔들린다는 것이다.

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2) 정유시설 공격

그는 다음 시설들이 공격받았다고 주장한다.

• 바레인 정유시설

• 사우디 아람코 생산시설

• 이스라엘 석유 시설

특히 이스라엘의 경우 정유시설 일부가 파괴되면서

• 디젤

• 휘발유

• 항공유

공급이 크게 줄었다고 설명한다.

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3) 세계 공급망 영향

그는 전쟁이 장기화될 경우 다음 상황이 발생할 수 있다고 본다.

• 석유 가격 급등

• 비료 생산 감소

• 농업 생산 감소

• 글로벌 공급망 붕괴

특히 비료 산업이 타격을 받으면 식량 생산 감소로 이어질 수 있다고 경고한다.

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4. 핵전쟁 위험

강연에서 가장 긴 부분은 핵전쟁 가능성에 대한 설명이다.

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1) 핵무기 파괴력

스타는 핵무기의 파괴력을 강조한다.

예를 들어:

• 800킬로톤 핵폭탄

• 화구 온도 약 300만도

• 대기 상층까지 방사성 물질 확산

이러한 폭발은 도시 전체를 파괴할 뿐 아니라 **핵겨울(nuclear winter)**을 초래할 가능성이 있다고 주장한다.

Iran Wins Strategic Dominance. …

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2) 핵전쟁의 정치 구조

그는 핵무기 사용이 매우 작은 정치 집단에 의해 결정된다고 말한다.

예를 들어

• 미국

• 러시아

• 이스라엘

모두 소수 지도자가 핵 버튼을 통제한다.

그는 이를

“세계에서 가장 비민주적인 시스템”

이라고 표현한다.

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3) Samson Option

스타는 특히 이스라엘의 Samson Option을 언급한다.

이 개념은

국가가 파괴될 경우 핵무기를 대규모로 사용한다는 전략

이다.

그는 이 시나리오가 실제로 논의되고 있다고 주장한다.

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5. 미국 정치와 종교 문제

강연의 후반부에서는 미국 내부 정치에 대한 비판이 등장한다.

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1) 기독교 시온주의

그는 미국 군대와 정치에서

Christian Zionism

의 영향이 커지고 있다고 주장한다.

이 사상은

• 이스라엘을 종교적 국가로 지지

• 중동 전쟁을 종말론과 연결

하는 경향이 있다고 설명한다.

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2) 군 내부 영향

그는 일부 군 조직에서

• 종교적 메시지

• 선교 활동

이 존재한다고 말한다.

이것이 군사 판단에 영향을 줄 수 있다는 것이다.

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6. 결론: 스타의 핵심 주장

강연의 핵심 결론은 다음과 같다.

1. 이란은 전쟁에서 전략적 우위를 확보했다.

2. 미국과 이스라엘의 방어 시스템은 취약하다.

3. 중동 에너지 인프라가 세계 경제의 핵심 약점이다.

4. 핵전쟁 위험이 실제로 존재한다.

5. 미국 내부 정치 구조가 상황을 악화시킬 수 있다.

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2. 평론 (비판적 평가)

이 강연은 매우 흥미롭지만 학술적으로 볼 때는 강한 주장과 약한 근거가 혼합된 분석이다.

다음 세 가지 측면에서 평가할 수 있다.

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1. 군사 분석의 신뢰성

스타의 분석에는 실제 군사 사실과 과장이 섞여 있다.

신뢰 가능한 부분

다음은 군사 전문가들도 인정하는 사실이다.

• 미사일 방어는 완벽하지 않다

• 포화 공격에 취약하다

• 레이더 파괴는 방어력을 약화시킨다

이 부분은 현실적인 분석이다.

---

과장된 부분

그러나 몇 가지 주장에는 근거가 부족하다.

예를 들어

• “미국 방어망이 거의 무력화되었다”

• “이란이 전략적 승리를 확보했다”

이러한 평가는 아직 군사적으로 확인된 사실이 아니다.

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2. 에너지 분석의 현실성

그의 에너지 분석은 상당히 설득력이 있다.

실제로

• 호르무즈 해협

• 사우디 정유시설

• 걸프 LNG

는 세계 경제의 핵심 인프라다.

이 지역이 불안정해지면

• 석유 가격 급등

• 공급망 충격

이 발생할 가능성이 높다.

이 부분은 많은 국제정치 학자들도 동의하는 분석이다.

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3. 핵전쟁 논의

핵전쟁 위험에 대한 설명은 두 가지 특징이 있다.

장점

그는 핵무기의 실제 파괴력을 상세히 설명한다.

이는 핵전쟁 위험을 이해하는 데 중요한 부분이다.

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문제

그러나 그는 핵전쟁 가능성을 다소 극적으로 묘사하는 경향이 있다.

실제로 핵 사용 결정은 다음 요소에 의해 제한된다.

• 상호확증파괴(MAD)

• 국제 정치 비용

• 군사적 확전 위험

따라서 핵전쟁 가능성이 항상 높은 것은 아니다.

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4. 정치적 편향

이 강연에는 명확한 정치적 관점이 존재한다.

특히

• 미국 비판

• 이스라엘 비판

• 서방 언론 불신

이 강하게 나타난다.

그러나 반대 관점, 예를 들어

• 이란의 군사 전략

• 지역 정치

• 이란 내부 정치

등은 충분히 분석되지 않는다.

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최종 평가

이 강연은 다음 두 가지 측면에서 가치가 있다.

장점

1. 핵무기 위험에 대한 강력한 경고

2. 중동 에너지 시스템의 취약성 분석

3. 미사일 전쟁의 현실적 문제 제기

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한계

1. 군사 상황에 대한 과도한 확신

2. 일부 정보의 출처 불명확

3. 정치적 편향 존재

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✔ 학문적으로 평가하면 이 강연은

“정치적 해석이 강한 전략 분석”

에 가깝다.

즉,

엄밀한 군사 연구라기보다
경고적 정치 분석에 가까운 글이다.

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원하시면 이어서 다음도 정리해 드리겠습니다.

1️⃣ <이 강연에서 사실 가능성이 높은 주장 vs 선전 가능성이 높은 주장>
2️⃣ <미국·이스라엘 군사 전문가들의 실제 평가>
3️⃣ <이란 미사일 전력의 실제 수준 (학계 평가)>
4️⃣ <이 전쟁이 실제로 어떤 방향으로 갈 가능성이 높은지>

세진님이 관심 가지고 계신 **“전쟁 정보의 신뢰도 문제”**를 분석하는 데 매우 중요한 자료라서, 그 부분도 깊게 설명드릴 수 있습니다.

1️⃣ <이 강연에서 사실 가능성이 높은 주장 vs 선전 가능성이 높은 주장> 2️⃣ <미국·이스라엘 군사 전문가들의 실제 평가> 3️⃣ <이란 미사일 전력의 실제 수준 (학계 평가)> 4️⃣ <이 전쟁이 실제로 어떤 방향으로 갈 가능성이 높은지> 세진님이 관심 가지고 계신 **“전쟁 정보의 신뢰도 문제”**를 분석하는 데 매우 중요한 자료라서, 그 부분도

세진님, 이 질문은 <강연 내용 자체의 평가>와 <실제 전황 평가>를 분리해서 봐야 정확합니다. 아래는 그렇게 나눈 정리입니다. 기준 시점은 현재 확인 가능한 공개 자료와 세진님이 올리신 PDF입니다.

Iran Wins Strategic Dominance. …

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<한국어>

1️⃣ <이 강연에서 사실 가능성이 높은 주장 vs 선전 가능성이 높은 주장>

<사실 가능성이 높은 주장>

<첫째, 이란 미사일 전력이 중동에서 매우 크고 다양하다>는 점은 대체로 맞습니다. CSIS는 이란이 중동 최대 규모이자 가장 다양한 미사일 전력을 보유하고 있으며, 수천 기의 탄도·순항미사일을 갖고 있다고 평가합니다. Reuters도 이란의 장거리 미사일 다수가 이스라엘에 도달 가능하다고 정리했습니다.

<둘째, 미사일 방어망은 포화 공격에 취약하다>는 주장도 상당히 타당합니다. CSIS는 2025년 이란-이스라엘 전쟁 이후 요격미사일 재고 고갈 문제가 심각하다고 분석했고, Reuters 역시 최근 보도에서 이란 미사일 일부가 이스라엘의 다층 방어망을 뚫고 피해를 냈다고 전했습니다. 즉, “방어망은 완벽하지 않다”는 강연의 골자는 맞습니다.

<셋째, 카타르의 AN/FPS-132 계열 조기경보 레이더가 매우 중요한 자산>이라는 설명도 대체로 맞습니다. 이 레이더는 장거리 탄도미사일 조기 탐지·추적과 방어체계 큐잉에 핵심적이며, 카타르의 해당 장비는 미국이 2013년 대외군사판매로 승인한 11억 달러급 체계입니다. RTX(레이시온)와 미 연방관보 기록이 이를 뒷받침합니다.

<넷째, 걸프 에너지 인프라와 호르무즈 해협이 세계 경제의 핵심 취약점>이라는 부분도 신빙성이 높습니다. IISS와 Reuters 보도는 이번 전쟁이 유가, 항공, 해상 운송, 지역 공항 운영에 실제 충격을 주고 있다고 봅니다. 이 부분에서 스타의 문제의식은 과장이 아니라 구조적 현실에 가깝습니다.

<선전 또는 과장 가능성이 높은 주장>

<첫째, “이란이 전략적 지배를 이미 확보했다”>는 표현은 과장일 가능성이 큽니다. IISS는 이란이 2025년 전쟁에서 중·장거리 미사일 재고를 상당 부분 소모했고, 발사대와 핵심 기반시설도 손실을 입었다고 봅니다. Reuters도 이스라엘이 2025년에 이란 발사대 약 3분의 1을 파괴했을 가능성이 있다고 전했습니다. 즉, 이란이 위협적이라는 것과 “전략적 우세를 이미 굳혔다”는 것은 다른 말입니다.

<둘째, 카타르 레이더 타격이 곧바로 미국·이스라엘 방공체계 전체의 실질적 마비를 뜻한다>는 주장도 과합니다. 맞는 부분은 있습니다. 그 레이더가 중요하고 타격받았다면 경보·추적망에 구멍이 생깁니다. 그러나 공개 자료상 확인된 것은 “공격받았고 손상 가능성이 높다”는 수준이지, 미국 전체 지역 방어망이 사실상 눈이 멀었다는 결론까지는 아닙니다. Qatar와 Reuters 보도는 공격과 공항·민간 인프라 표적화를 확인하지만, 방어망 전체의 기능 상실까지는 확인하지 않습니다.

<셋째, 이란이 초음속·극초음속 미사일로 미국과 이스라엘이 거의 방어 불가능한 수준에 도달했다>는 식의 암시는 과장입니다. 이란은 극초음속이라고 주장하는 체계를 공개해 왔지만, 독립 검증된 실전 성능과 대량 배치 수준은 아직 불분명합니다. 공개 평가들은 이란의 진짜 강점을 “완전히 새로운 불가항력”보다 <수량, 분산, 이동식 운용, 정밀도 향상, 포화 운용>에 둡니다.

<넷째, 미국이 ‘이제 선택지가 없다’>는 결론도 분석이라기보다 정치적 프레이밍에 가깝습니다. 실제로 미국은 군사 확대, 제한전, 해상 봉쇄 완화, 방공 증강, 비공개 협상, 제3국 중재 같은 여러 선택지를 여전히 갖고 있습니다. 최근 Reuters와 IISS 분석도 현 상황을 “교착과 확전 위험이 공존하는 상태”로 보지, 일방의 완전한 무력화로 보지는 않습니다.

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2️⃣ <미국·이스라엘 군사 전문가들의 실제 평가>

미국·이스라엘 쪽 주류 평가는 대체로 이렇게 요약됩니다.

<이란은 약하지 않다. 그러나 무적도 아니다.> 이것이 핵심입니다. CSIS와 IISS는 이란 미사일 전력을 중대한 위협으로 보지만, 동시에 2025년 전쟁과 2026년 공습 속에서 이란의 발사대, 생산능력, 지휘시설이 타격을 입었다고 평가합니다. 즉, “이란의 억지력은 살아 있으나 소모와 손실도 크다”는 식입니다.

이스라엘 안보당국과 미국 정보당국은 <정권 붕괴가 단기간에 일어나지 않을 것>이라고 보는 쪽에 가깝습니다. Reuters와 WSJ 보도에 따르면, 이스라엘 내부에서도 이란 체제가 당장 무너지지 않으며 외부 폭격만으로 정권교체가 쉽게 일어나지 않는다는 인식이 강합니다. 이것은 스타 강연의 “이란이 이미 전략적으로 이겼다”와는 다르지만, 동시에 “이스라엘이 결정적 승리를 곧 거둘 것”이라는 낙관과도 다릅니다.

또 한 가지 중요한 평가는 <방어 비용의 비대칭성>입니다. 요격은 비싸고 공격은 상대적으로 싸다는 점입니다. CSIS는 요격미사일 재고와 비용 문제를 오래 지적해 왔고, Reuters는 미국·카타르가 이란제 샤헤드 드론을 상대하기 위해 값싼 요격 드론 도입까지 검토 중이라고 전했습니다. 이것은 스타의 문제의식과 꽤 겹칩니다.

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3️⃣ <이란 미사일 전력의 실제 수준 (학계 평가)>

학계·싱크탱크 평가를 한 문장으로 요약하면 이렇습니다.

<이란의 미사일 전력은 중동 최강급이지만, 미국·러시아식 초강대국 수준은 아니다.>

이란의 강점은 네 가지입니다.
<첫째>, 수량이 많습니다.
<둘째>, 종류가 다양합니다.
<셋째>, 이동식 발사대와 지하시설을 활용해 생존성을 높였습니다.
<넷째>, 예전보다 정밀도가 좋아졌습니다.

약점도 분명합니다.
<첫째>, 장기전에서 재생산 속도는 제약을 받습니다. IISS는 2025년 전쟁에서 이란이 중·장거리 미사일 재고를 상당히 소모했다고 봤고, 전쟁 전 미국 평가는 월 50기 정도 생산능력으로 추정했습니다.

<둘째>, 발사대와 지원 인프라가 노출되면 손실이 큽니다. Reuters는 이스라엘이 2025년 이란 발사대 약 3분의 1을 파괴했을 가능성을 전했습니다. 발사체만이 아니라 발사체를 운용하는 생태계 전체가 중요하다는 뜻입니다.

<셋째>, “극초음속” 같은 정치적 선전어와 실제 검증된 성능은 구분해야 합니다. 전문가들은 대체로 이란의 가장 실질적인 장점을 <완벽히 새로운 기술>이 아니라 <충분한 수량과 운용 숙련도, 방어 비용을 압박하는 능력>으로 봅니다.

따라서 냉정하게 말하면, 이란의 미사일 전력은 <상대의 방어를 흔들고 지역전의 비용을 폭증시킬 수 있는 전력>입니다. 하지만 그것이 곧 <전략적 결정적 승리 보장 전력>이라는 뜻은 아닙니다.

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4️⃣ <이 전쟁이 실제로 어떤 방향으로 갈 가능성이 높은지>

현재 공개 자료를 종합하면, 가장 가능성이 높은 방향은 <장기 교착 + 제한적 확전 반복>입니다. Reuters, IISS, AP 보도를 보면 어느 쪽도 단기간에 상대를 완전히 굴복시키기 어렵고, 동시에 전쟁을 쉽게 끝낼 정치적 출구도 아직 약합니다.

가장 가능성이 낮은 시나리오는 <단기간 정권교체>입니다. 이란 반체제 인사들조차 외부 폭격만으로 체제가 무너지지 않는다고 말했고, 미국 정보당국도 이란 정부가 당장 붕괴 위험에 있지 않다고 평가했습니다.

가장 위험한 시나리오는 <걸프 인프라, 해상교통, 에너지, 사이버를 동시에 겨누는 다층 확전>입니다. 이미 AP는 친이란 해커들이 미국과 중동 기반시설을 겨냥하고 있다고 보도했고, Reuters는 항공·에너지·운송 충격을 전하고 있습니다. 전쟁이 꼭 핵으로 가야만 심각한 것은 아닙니다. <경제전 + 미사일전 + 사이버전>의 결합만으로도 세계적 충격이 큽니다.

핵 사용 가능성은 여전히 <낮지만 0은 아닌 위험>으로 봐야 합니다. 주류 전문가 평가는 아직 핵전쟁 임박론보다는 재래식 확전, 에너지 충격, 해상 봉쇄, 지역기지 공격을 더 현실적인 위험으로 봅니다. 스타는 핵 위험을 과도하게 전면화하는 경향이 있지만, 그렇다고 완전히 허구라고 볼 수도는 없습니다. 다만 현재 공개 전문가 평가의 중심은 아직 핵보다 <장기 재래식 소모전과 지역 시스템 충격> 쪽입니다.

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<전쟁 정보의 신뢰도 문제: 이 자료를 어떻게 읽어야 하나>

이 강연은 <완전히 틀린 선전물>은 아닙니다. 실제 사실을 꽤 많이 붙잡고 있습니다. 특히
<1> 이란 미사일 위협,
<2> 방공망의 한계,
<3> 걸프 인프라의 취약성,
<4> 전쟁 보도의 축소 가능성
이 네 가지는 진지하게 들을 가치가 있습니다.

Iran Wins Strategic Dominance. …

하지만 이 강연은 동시에 <정확한 정보 + 과장된 결론>의 전형이기도 합니다. 특히 “이란이 이미 전략적으로 지배했다”, “미국은 선택지가 없다”, “핵 사용이 거의 눈앞” 같은 결론은 주류 군사평가보다 한 단계 더 나간 주장입니다. 그래서 세진님이 이런 자료를 보실 때는 <개별 사실>과 <최종 서사>를 반드시 분리해서 보셔야 합니다.

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<English>

1️⃣ <Which claims in the talk are more likely factual, and which look more like propaganda?>

The stronger parts of Steve Starr’s talk are these: Iran really does possess the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East; missile defense systems are vulnerable to saturation; the Qatar-based AN/FPS-132 class radar is a strategically important early-warning asset; and Gulf energy infrastructure remains a real global chokepoint. Those points are broadly consistent with CSIS, Reuters, RTX, and official U.S. arms-sale documentation.

The weaker parts are the conclusions built on top of those facts. Saying Iran has already achieved “strategic dominance,” or that the strike on the radar effectively blinded the entire U.S.-Israeli missile defense architecture, goes beyond what open-source evidence currently supports. Likewise, treating Iranian “hypersonic” claims as if they are already a war-winning, independently verified capability is too strong. Mainstream expert assessments focus more on Iran’s scale, dispersal, mobility, and improved precision than on a revolutionary technological leap.

2️⃣ <What do U.S. and Israeli military experts actually seem to think?>

The broad mainstream view is: Iran is dangerous, resilient, and capable of inflicting serious costs, but it is not invulnerable. CSIS and IISS assessments describe Iran’s missile force as a serious regional threat, while also noting losses to launchers, infrastructure, and inventory in the 2025 war and subsequent operations. U.S. and Israeli assessments also appear skeptical that bombing alone will rapidly collapse the Iranian regime. Reuters and other reporting indicate that both Israeli and U.S. officials see regime change as difficult and unlikely in the short term.

Another point that experts stress is cost asymmetry: intercepting missiles and drones is expensive, while launching them can be comparatively cheap. That is why interceptor inventories matter so much, and why the U.S. and partners are reportedly exploring cheaper counter-drone solutions. On that issue, Starr is closer to mainstream expert concern than it may first appear.

3️⃣ <What is the real level of Iran’s missile power in academic and think-tank assessments?>

A fair summary would be: Iran’s missile force is top-tier by regional standards, but not in the same class as the full strategic power of the major nuclear superpowers. Its real strengths are quantity, diversity, mobility, underground basing, and improving precision. Its weaknesses are attrition, launcher vulnerability, and constrained regeneration under sustained attack. IISS and Reuters reporting suggest Iran expended a substantial portion of its medium- and intermediate-range inventory in the 2025 war, and prewar U.S. estimates put production at roughly 50 missiles per month.

So the most grounded conclusion is not that Iran possesses some magical unstoppable weapon, but that it has enough missile capacity to strain defenses, raise the cost of war, and threaten regional infrastructure in a serious way.

4️⃣ <Where is this war most likely heading?>

The most plausible direction is prolonged attrition with repeated limited escalation. The least plausible near-term scenario is quick regime change through bombing alone. The most dangerous scenario is not necessarily immediate nuclear use, but a widening conflict across missiles, cyber operations, shipping, airspace, and Gulf energy infrastructure. Recent reporting already points to cyber escalation, aviation disruption, and energy-market stress.

Nuclear use remains a low-probability but non-zero danger. Starr gives it more central weight than most mainstream analysts currently do. The center of expert concern remains conventional escalation, infrastructure damage, economic shock, and the difficulty of finding an off-ramp.

<Bottom line on reliability>

This talk is not pure fabrication. It contains several important truths. But it repeatedly turns real vulnerabilities into maximal conclusions. The safest way to read it is to separate <fact claims> from <narrative claims>. Many of the first are plausible. Several of the second are overstated.

Iran Wins Strategic Dominance. …

원하시면 다음 단계로 바로 이어서 <이 강연 문장별 팩트체크 표>를 만들어 드리겠습니다.

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