Manufactured Crisis: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare
Front cover of the book showing Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu speaking before UN general assembly | |
| Author | Gareth Porter |
|---|---|
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Just World Books |
Publication date | February 1, 2014 |
| Publication place | United States |
| Pages | 310 |
| ISBN | 978-1935982333 |
| Website | Just World Books Webstore |
Manufactured Crisis: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare is a 2014 book authored by Gareth Porter, an American historian, investigative journalist, author and policy analyst specializing in U.S. national security policy. In this 310-page book,[1] he asserts that Iran's nuclear energy program has been peaceful, arguing that the evidence widely cited to demonstrate Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions is fabricated by Israel and the United States.[2][3]
Contents
The book consists of the following chapters:[4]
- The US Denial Policy and Its Consequences
- The Politics of Iran’s Nuclear Secrecy
- Iran’s Unknown Nuclear Politics
- US Political Origins of the Nuclear Scare
- Israeli Political Origins of the Nuclear Scare
- Choosing Regime Change Over Diplomacy
- The IAEA Comes Up Empty
- The Mystery of the Laptop Documents
- Intelligence Failure
- The Phantom Bomb Test Chamber of Parchin
- Phony War Crises
Synopsis
Starting with "U.S. support for the Iraqis during the 1980s Iraq–Iran War", the book argues that with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the ending of the Cold War, Americans saved the CIA by giving it a new reason to exist, the new threat posed by the combination of "weapons of mass destruction" and "terror".[5] Taking seriously the declarations of Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, and of his predecessor, Ruhollah Khomeini, that nuclear weapons are against teachings of Islam and hence Iran is not seeking them, Porter says that the pressure by U.S. to prevent Tehran's development of its civilian nuclear program left them with only the Hobson's choice of working covertly and covering their tracks.
According to John Waterbury, "The risk for Israel and the United States, of course, is that they might have to go to war to confront a threat that, Porter alleges, they know does not exist."[2]
According to the Fars News Agency, in addition to explaining why Tehran covered its nuclear activity, the author deals with the issues such as the alleged smuggled laptop, Parchin test chamber and the role of Israel in creating the crisis.[6][unreliable source?]
Porter argues in his book that the root of the crisis is in fact "Washington's denial of Iran's right to a peaceful nuclear program" and not "Iran's defiance of the nuclear nonproliferation treaty."[7]
Reception
According to Al-Monitor columnist Akiva Eldar, a number of contentions in Porter's book have been independently made by Uzi Eilam, a senior intelligence source who won the Israel Security Prize and served in the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission as a director for nine years. Senior Israeli security officials said Eilam was not aware of recent information and that he is "out of the loop".[8]
Shmuel Meir, a research fellow at the Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University and former researcher at the IDF's intelligence unit and the IDF’s Planning Department strategic unit, called Porter "the only journalist and investigator in the world who read, with an unbiased eye, all the IAEA reports and the American intelligence reports of the last several decades regarding the Iranian issue"[8][5] and said that the book was "highly detailed and well-documented" and suitable for "all interested in understanding how we arrived at the Iranian nuclear crisis, and the 'attack scenarios', and invented facts and intelligence reports whose purpose was to support the preconceptions".[5]
Josh Ruebner in Foreign Policy in Focus wrote that the book is "meticulously researched and richly detailed". Among Porter's conclusions is one that regards the efforts to include Iran's ballistic missiles within the nuclear negotiations after the interim deal was signed without them as "an Israeli-inspired monkey wrench thrown by its lobby ... to derail the talks".[9] Alex Cacioppo's review in Muftah says that, using information from "open source documentation and revealed through in-depth interviews with key players", Porter draws a different picture from the experts and politicians who portray Iran as a "transgressing power with nefarious nuclear ambitions".[10]
In October 2014, Hans Blix, former director general of the IAEA and former executive chairman of the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), participated in a televised HBO History Makers Series conference with the Council on Foreign Relations. When asked if he thought Iran's nuclear program could be successfully monitored, he replied that he was more worried about the handling of intelligence, "because there is as much disinformation as there is information. There was a book published by Gareth Porter in the U.S. some time ago about the whole Iranian affair, and, well, he certainly maintains that much of the evidence that was given to the IAEA was really cooked, was not authentic. And I wouldn't be at all surprised."[11] According to the publisher of Porter's book, shortly after it was published, Blix wrote: "I feel grateful to Gareth Porter for his intrusive and critical examination of intelligence material passed to the IAEA."[12] Alluding to the assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists, he added: "When security organizations do not shy away from assassinating nuclear scientists we can take it for certain that they do not for a moment hesitate to circulate false evidence."[12][13]
According to William Beeman, professor and chair of the Department of Anthropology, University of Minnesota, Porter's narration of how consensus was built over the threat of Iran's nuclear program is fascinating because he has created a convincing account of the incident which demonstrates how the background for attacking Iran was mixed with "lies and misinformation" over many years.[14] He makes prominent mention of Robert Gates, an increasingly influential member of the US government who eventually became Secretary of Defense, as a possible "prime mover" of this Iran policy.[14] Porter "exposes the many lies and half-truths that have been promulgated over more than two decades to try and convince the American public and the world that Iran is the chief danger to international peace through its nuclear program".[14]
Paul R. Pillar, a 28-year veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) until his retirement in 2005,[15] described the book in a Middle East Policy Council journal review as "an admirably thorough treatment" of the Iranian nuclear program and the perception of it and response to it by Israeli and American policymakers.[16] He wrote that the book's two most significant contributions are "as an overall history of the understanding, or misunderstanding, of the Iranian program" and its debunking of "the conventional wisdom that Iran is set on getting nuclear weapons", and noted Porter's thorough examination and assessment of both.[16] Pillar said that Porter was "much less convincing", however, when he failed to support his repetition of the old cliché that to maintain their funding levels, almost all of the American security establishment was exaggerating the actual threat of weapons proliferation.[16] He also noted that Porter's "effort to spread attributions of bias around very broadly" resulted in a minimization of the actual political differences of the various presidential administrations, especially the "sharp" distinction between the George W. Bush and Barack Obama policies.[16]
Translation
The book is translated into Persian and published in Iran. Both translation and publication is done by Fars News Agency publication.[6]
See also
References
- Gareth Porter (2014). Manufactured Crisis: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare. ISBN 978-1935982333.
- Waterbury, John (2014). "Manufactured Crisis: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare". Foreign Affairs. ISBN 978-1935982333. Retrieved January 5, 2016.
- Staff (January 31, 2014). "Manufactured Crisis: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare". Just World Books. Retrieved January 5, 2016.
- Staff writers. "Manufactured Crisis: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare". www.iranreview.org. Retrieved 12 January 2016.
- Meir, Shemuel (31 May 2014). "Was the Iranian threat fabricated by Israel and the U.S.?". Ha'aretz. Retrieved 5 February 2016.
- Staff. "خبرگزاری فارس – بحران ساختگی: داستان ناگفته هراس از ایران هستهای". خبرگزاری فارس (in Persian). Retrieved 5 January 2016.
- Hautaviita, Johannes. "An analysis of the nuclear crisis between the US and its allies and Iran". Helsinki Times. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
- Eldar, Akiva. "An Israeli scare campaign about Iran's nuclear program?". Al-monitor. Archived from the original on 2014-05-31. Retrieved 5 February 2016.
- Ruebner, Josh (2014-03-03). "Overcoming the "Manufactured Crisis" with Iran – FPIF". Foreign Policy In Focus. Retrieved 7 January 2016.
- Cacioppo, Alex. "A Review of Gareth Porter's Manufactured Crisis: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare". Muftah. Retrieved 7 January 2016.
- Hans Blix on a Legacy of Nuclear Safeguards and InspectionsArchived 2017-03-19 at the Wayback Machine
- Gareth Porter adds timely facts, realism to Iran/nuclear discussion Archived 2016-08-20 at the Wayback Machine; Just World Books; October 21, 2014
- McGovern, Ray. "Trial Begins in Case of Ex-CIA Officer Allegedly Divulging Secrets to Journalist". Alternet. Retrieved 5 February 2016.
- Beeman, William O. "Did Robert Gates Manufacture the Iran Crisis?". Huffington Post. Retrieved 5 February 2016.
- "Paul R. PIllar". Brookings Institution. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 12 February 2016.
- Pillar, Paul R. (Fall 2014). "Manufactured Crisis: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare – Book Review". Middle East Policy Council Journal. Vol. XXI, no. 3. Archived from the original on 7 October 2016. Retrieved 12 February 2016.
External links
- “Manufactured Crisis: the Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare” , Lecture by Dr. Gareth Porter, Summary by Amir Richani, June 9, 2014.
Product description
Review
"I feel grateful to Gareth Porter for his intrusive and critical examination of intelligence material passed to the IAEA."
--Hans Blix, Former Director General of the IAEA
"Exposes the many lies and half-truths that have been promulgated over more than two decades to try and convince the American public and the world that Iran is the chief danger to international peace through its nuclear program..."
--William Beeman, University of Minnesota
"Gareth Porter is among the last of that rare breed--the independent investigative journalist who brings to bear long experience in foreign policy reporting with a keen and critical eye for K Street propaganda. He is essential."
--Juan Cole, University of Michigan
About the Author
Gareth Porter is an investigative journalist, historian, author, and analyst of U.S. foreign and military policy. Porter has written four books, including his seminal work on Vietnam, Perils of Dominance, and his writing has been published in such outlets as Al-Jazeera English, The Nation, Inter Press Service, the Huffington Post, and Truthout. He was the 2012 winner of the Martha Gellhorn Prize for Investigative Journalism.
From other countries
- ColdstreamReviewed in the United Kingdom on 25 October 2015
Necessary and insightful reading
This is an astonishingly interesting book and should become a text for international politics courses.
Through its meticulous research and primary interviews with some of the key players, it manages to connect the main events and chart the dynamic effort to build the house of lies which became the manufactured crisis. It shows how when analysis did not fit-in with the convenient and orthodox narrative, news was laundered, then outright rumours and false narratives was seeded through obedient news outlets such as AP, Washington Post and the Times. It brings out how IAEA was played, fed false information, owned and politicized. It also shows how the main players acted out their prejudices and agendas, and used the US Congress the to pass the laws they wanted.
This excellent book that makes it obvious why we should not read news unquestioningly and why not to outsource our judgement to opinion-makers. I have followed this topic closely for more that three decades and it still taught me immensely. - CassandraReviewed in Canada on 26 July 2014
This book is so very necessary and so very enlightening ...
This book is so very necessary and so very enlightening. We are being fed a completely one-sided and illusory anti-Iran story about Iran's nuclear program, and everything else connected with Iran. I was once again shocked by the details of the campaign against Iran which are spelled out by Gareth Porter in this book. This book must be read by anyone who is interested in truly understanding the relationship between Iran and the West. - Semi anonymous shopperReviewed in the United States on 19 August 2014
Meticulously researched account of how US Iran policy has been shaped
Gareth Porter has documented the history of Iran's nuclear program and the US and Israel opposition to it, in doing so documenting the western world's historical amnesia vis-a-vis an important part of its relationship with Iran. The analysis of how the US opposed the Islamic Republic's diminished nuclear enrichment program inherited from the shah in the wake of the hostage crisis, and in keeping with its decided support for Saddam during the Iran-Iraq war, is excellent. Porter dates the beginnings the US's technology denial policy and opposition to nuclear enrichment with the aftermath of the Islamic Revolution and the decision by Israel to designate Iran as a strategic adversary. After the intelligence failure of Iraq's WMD and the catastrophic consequences of the US false case for war to prevent a nuclear armed Iraq, one would think that US, Israeli intelligence assessments concerning Iran's alleged covert aspirations for WMD would be put under greater scrutiny and skepticism. But it is a narrative that remains largely unquestioned by the western media and elite. Porter traces the origins of the "alleged studies" and unravels the "possible military dimensions" of Iran's enrichment program. He covers the concomitant propaganda campaigns that have acted to keep the IAEA's Iran nuclear file open indefinitely and which, in turn, have kept open a backchannel to war for Israel and the US. It a remarkable book which debunks many myths, not least the central one: That the mad mullah's are on apocalyptic quest for a nuclear bomb. - hou maohanReviewed in Germany on 9 July 2014
Manufactured Crisis: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare
Ich befasse mich seit mehr als 40 Jahren mit den Beziehung zwischen USA , Israel und Iran. Immer, wenn die Beziehungen Iran zu Israel gut waren, waren auch die Beziehung USA zu Iran gut. Wehe dem die Beziehung Iran zu Israel durch irgendeinereignis getrübt war, so war auch USA der nächte, der sich von Iran abwandte. Dies war der fall bei Shah Mohammd Reza Pahlawi. Bis in den jahren 1975 hatte Iran engste Beziehungen zu Israel und CAI sorgte im Iran dafür , dass alle Opposition gegen Shah mit gewalt unterdrückz wurden. Ab dem Jare 1970 hatte sich der shah über die Atombewaffnung Israel bei USA beschwert, weil diese die Balance im nahen osten zu seinen ungünsten verschoben hatte. Dies war der Beginn eine Kampanie der Israel freunlichen Zeitung gegen den Shah wegen der fehlenden Demokratie in Iran und Musad und CIA begannen im Iran die Stimmung gegen Shah anzuheizen. In Khomeine fanden Sie, angeblich, einen guten Partner. Die Revolution im Iran ist auch zuerst so gelaufen, wie USA und Israel sich vorgestellt hatten, Regim change. Nur Khomeini machte nicht mit und machte ein Strich durch die Rechnung der USA und Israelis.
Dann beganen Schlag auf Schlag gegenmassnahmen. Zuerst der Krieg Saddam gegen Iran mit unterstützung USA und auch Israel(obwohl Israel bis dato sadam als sein Todfind definiert hatte).Nach dem das nicht gelang, Iran in die knie zu zwingen, musste, wie auch in dem buch geschildert,der griff nach Atomwaffen als sündenbock herhalten. Dass die europär auch mitmachten, war es folgerichtig, Deuschland ist durch Nazi taten geknäbelt. England ist engste verbündetet USA(man weiß nicht wer wenn führt) und Frankreich hat geholfen, dass Israel im Besitz von Atomwaffen gelang.
Das Buch entschleiert die Politik von USA geforced von Israel. Ich bin mir sicher, dass, wenn morgen Iran ein halnwegs freundliche Politik gegenüber Israel betreibt, ab übermorgen "Irans Atombewafnung" aus allen kanälen verschwinden und USA und Iran, infolgedessen Europa, die besten freunde Iran werden.
Die kampanie den den Verfasser des Buches wegen antisemitismus ist schon im vollen gange, beschaft euch dieses(fakt, fakt und 1000 mal fakt) Buch, bevor es von der Bildfäche und auch von den regalen von Amazon verschwindet. - William O. BeemanReviewed in the United States on 24 March 2014
Porter Exposes one of the Great Disinformation Scandals of Our Age--The Phoney Accusations of Iran's "nuclear weapons program"
Gareth Porter has been the most conscientious follower of the fantasy danger of Iran’s purported “nuclear weapons program.” In this new, meticulously documented book, he exposes the many lies and half-truths that have been promulgated over more than two decades to try and convince the American public and the world that Iran is the chief danger to international peace.
Before plunging into the details of the book, let me state its conclusions unequivocally: Iran has never been proven to have a nuclear weapons program. Any claim to the contrary is absolutely false. The attempt to claim that such a weapons program exists was the result of a decades-long effort on the part of American neoconservatives allied with right-wing forces in Israel to legitimize hostile actions against Iran designed to effect regime change there.
Porter’s account is fascinating and appalling reading. It is fascinating because he has created a compelling narrative showing how the framework for attacking Iran in this way evolved over decades. One of the most telling episodes in the book concerns President George H.W. Bush. In 1989 he was willing to improve relations with Iran eliminating sanctions that had been in place since the revolution of 1978-79. At that time American hostages were being held by Shi’a forces in Lebanon. Then Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati intervened, and all American prisoners were released. Bush was grateful and was supported by his national security advisor, Brent Snowcroft, but suddenly his administration reversed course.
As Porter describes it, though he and Bush wanted improved relations, everyone else on the national security team insisted that Iran was “deeply engaged in other acts of terrorism that made it very, very difficult to improve the relationship” (p. 87). Porter goes on to demonstrate that these “other acts of terrorism” were unsubstantiated. Essentially the decision not to go forward with improved relations was a political one and not based on any proven Iranian actions.
After Robert Gates, who had served on the National Security Council, became CIA director, the disinformaton about Iran continued. Porter documents that in 1992 it was Gates who first declared, with no hard evidence at all, that “Iran is developing a capability to produce weapons of mass destruction,” and was “seeking to acquire a nuclear weapons capability.”
In this way the juggernaut against Iran was launched. Although the national intelligence estimate for that year declared that Iran would not seriously threaten U.S. interests, Gates’ estimate became gospel for the balance of the Bush administration, carrying forward into the Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations. Gates’ influence was indeed extremely telling.
After the tragedy of September 11, 2001, the George W. Bush administration was dominated by neoconservatives who had been active since the administration of his father and were anxious to see regime change throughout the Middle East. They ignored the fact that the Iranian nuclear energy program had started in earnest during the last years of the regime of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and declared that Iran had been undertaking “secret” nuclear developments. In fact, these were not at all secret, and had been governed by the rules of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to which Iran and the United States (but not Israel, Pakistan, India, or North Korea) were signatories, and which guaranteed Iran the “inalienable right” to the peaceful development of nuclear power.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was charged with carrying out inspections of Iran’s nuclear program (and indeed, the nuclear programs of all signatories to the treaty). They never once found the slightest evidence that Iran had a nuclear weapons program or had diverted any nuclear material for military use. Still Gates’ 10-year-old assertion that Iran was seeking to acquire a nuclear weapons capability, though completely unproven, was seized upon by the neoconservatives who wanted to bring down the Iranian regime.
As Porter documents, the IAEA quickly became politicized. Its head, Mohamed ElBaradei, was excoriated by the George W. Bush administration, who tried to get him fired because he would not assert that Iran was building nuclear weapons. His eventual successor, Yukio Amano, was more compliant. Though still not able to say that Iran had a demonstrable nuclear weapons program, IAEA reports after he took office used convoluted language to suggest that they “could not eliminate the possibility” that Iran might be building nuclear weapons. Several attempts on Iran’s part during the Bush administration to negotiate over misunderstandings of its program were rebuffed by Washington, partially due to those same neoconservatives in his administration, notably John Bolton, who served as United Nations ambassador on a recess appointment during the crucial period from 2005-2006 and made it his mission to attack Iran with falsehoods at every turn.
Porter presents example after example of the U.S. media, most notably The New York Times, distorting the facts about Iran’s nuclear activities. Every action and decision was placed under a microscope, and though Iran had only completed one reactor in development since before the revolution, and was far from completing any facility for additional generation of nuclear power, the hyperbole in the press made it seem that Iran would have a bomb tomorrow. Lobbying groups such as the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) influenced these writings and lobbied the U.S. Congress for more stringent sanctions on Iran with the aim of completely dismantling Iran’s 40-year-old nuclear program. They also supported military action against Iran either by the United States or by Israel. Porter’s book features the famous picture of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pointing to a picture of a Warner Brothers cartoon bomb and inveighing against Iran.
Porter’s book is essential reading for all Americans wary of the manufactured path to war. It shows how ideology can distort facts, and can be used as a weapon to sway public opinion in directions that are inimical to world interests. As talks with Iran in Vienna over its nuclear program proceed, Porter notes that the Obama administration, only after ridding itself of the extended influence of Robert Gates, has finally made attempts to wind down the two decades of baseless attacks on Iran to try and forge a rapprochement. The question remains whether warmongers in Washington, Israel, and some nations in Europe will come to their senses and let this happen.
William O. Beeman is professor of anthropology at the University of Minnesota. He has conducted research in Iran for over 40 years, and is author of The “Great Satan” vs. the - EtheldredaReviewed in the United Kingdom on 9 April 2015
Essential Reading
This is essential reading for anyone interested in the fake ''Iranian nuclear crisis''.
Meticulously researched, this book delves behind the scare mongering headlines and official statements. Western and Israeli leaders have known all along that Iran has never been interested in pursuing a nuclear bomb, but have manufactured this 'crisis' as a way to isolate and punish Iran. With the Lausanne deal, we can hope that this charade is now over, but Porter's book remains an essential guide to the several decade long farce that was/is the ''Iranian nuclear crisis''. - Jim MilesReviewed in Canada on 6 August 2015
Timely
Well written, well researched, demonstrates clearly lies and manipulations of Israel and us in their hostility towards Iran, country that just about always acts rationally in spite of some of their political rhetoric. - JaclynReviewed in the United Kingdom on 8 November 2020
Excellent Gift
This book was a gift for my 'adopted' nephew, and he is really pleased with it. Enough said. - Hans-Peter MullerReviewed in Germany on 7 March 2014
Manufactured Evidence
The new book by true investigative journalist Gareth Porter, Manufactured Crisis, summarizes the decade-long deception of the public about the nature of Iran’s nuclear program. It is not real news that the United States, Israel and the Iranian terrorist organization Mujahedeen-e Khalq (MEK) had joined in a big conspiracy in the successful attempt to isolate Iran internationally and impose on the Pariah state eventually crippling sanctions. However, since Porter bases much of his narrative on recent interviews with numerous insiders, among them former CIA and IAEA officers, some of whom only testifying after insisting not to be identified, the picture, which may have been blurred when just reading the quarterly reports by IAEA Director General on Iran, or David Albright’s interpretations, becomes clearer. A policy of denial since the mid-1980s, Natanz, George W. Bush putting Iran on an imaginary “axis of evil”, exploiting IAEA’s leverage for foreign policy, Fordow, Parchin, UN sanctions; and more sanctions.
Well, Porter’s “alternative narrative” is biased as well. Painting Israel, the MEK and the U.S. as the sole villains in the play is not enough. Americans have asked, in particular after traumatic 9-11, “Why do they [the Muslims] hate us ['Westerners']?”, a question which can easily be answered by analyzing U.S. American foreign policy after WWII. But why do America and the West hate Iran? The 1979/81 hostage crisis and Jimmy Carter’s helpless attempt to free the American diplomats in his ill-fated Operation Eagle Claw is not mentioned in Porter’s book. As fact of the matter, America was at war with Iran ever since. The brutal Iraq-Iran war was just a proxy where Saddam’s war crimes had been tolerated if not facilitated by the Americans under President Ronald Reagan. Iranians had to pay the highest price. Of course would they be denied of nuclear technology, and anything else.
But didn’t they deserve? The Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Khomeini, which emerged after the ouster of shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, was in fact a rogue regime which undoubtedly helped all kinds of terrorist organizations in the Middle East and conducted terrorist acts itself. It was another cold war, and the U.S. was lacking an arch foe after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Porter doesn’t explain why Iran strived for nuclear technology at all. It is indeed most likely that Iran seeks (and always sought) what is called nuclear latency, the “Japan option” of being in the position to quickly build a nuclear bomb if and only if a decision was made. Self-evidently, the U.S. and other world powers (P5+1) do not want that and cannot publicly discuss that since Iran is a member state of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) and has therefore the right to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Since the Iranians eventually helped themself a “crisis” was inevitable.
That any intelligence which would point to Iran’s peaceful nuclear ambitions was frankly ignored is not credible. It is more likely that realpolitik was made by several American administrations regardless of evidence for Iran’s peaceful nuclear program. American administrations’ policy is in fact to misinform the public, at least since the Vietnam war. In that regard, Porter’s book comes late. - Eric C. PetersenReviewed in the United States on 20 February 2014
Riveting, and a Must Read
for anyone interested in the Iran nuclear kerfuffle, a group that might hopefully include the U.S. Congress or the D.C. foreign policy apparatus, albeit this book rather clearly shows these two groups have been disinterested in any facts. Lacking until the publication of this book has been a comprehensive time line review of how events in this standoff came to be; media coverage of events has been sporadic, superficial, and often factually incorrect (even by the NYT, Washington Post, LA Post) and most articles are mere messaging channels for propaganda-with-a-purpose emanating either out of D.C. or Tel Aviv. For over a decade the American public has been exposed to "startling new revelations" of Iran's nuclear weapons intent, only to see these charges disappear with time - to be replaced by more new-and-exciting allegations that in turn... As a semi-serious student of this ongoing battle I've put minimal credence in media reports but held the quarterly IAEA reports in high regard; unfortunately, as Porter demonstrates, this organization had and has an anti-Iran agenda. One of its most effective tools has been to "never close the book": The IAEA will ask for specific information on a suspected activity, Iran then provides a full answer, the IAEA agrees there is no problem, but refuses to close this file, saying it may come back at some time in the future to "reconsider." At other times its reports simply omit mention of a closed item (like the alleged nuclear trigger activity at Parchin) thereby leaving it open. The aim of this game is to never give Iran a clean bill of health despite the country's full cooperation, thereby allowing sanctions to continue to gnaw at Iran's economy to achieve the real objective - regime change.
This book is a real page-turner, clearly written, and the amount of research that went into it a bit mind boggling. While there are dozens of revealing episodes, I'll land on a few that may be representative: After the 1979 Revolution Iran ceased work on the Bushehr nuclear power plant (about 80% complete) as it was viewed as one of the Shah's unnecessary projects. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) that under that Shah employed nearly 900 engineers and had a $3 billion-plus budget was virtually disbanded. (The Shah had plans for 20-plus reactors by the mid 1990s that was A-OK by the USA. The Tehran Research Reactor that the US supplied in 1967 ran on bomb-grade HEU; in cooperation with Argentina Iran downgraded the fuel load to 20% U-235 in 1987.) Facing severe electrical shortages, two years later it was decided to proceed with Bushehr. The Shah had paid a German firm $4.7 billion to construct Bushehr and $1.18 billion to France for a 10% ownership in Eurodif, a uranium enrichment project that was to supply the Iranian reactor with its fuel. The U.S. pressured both countries to refuse to honor their commitments, and France went as far as to refuse to return the billion-plus dollar deposit. Iran then approached the IAEA for technical assistance to bring Bushehr into operation but was denied because of U.S. pressure. American actions were in clear violation of Article IV of the NPT, and as Porter notes, "Instead, the US national security bureaucracy was simply substituting its own unilateral interests and policy for its legal obligations."
The decision by the Reagan administration to deny Iran its rights granted as a signatory of the NPT was clearly the genesis of the nuclear weapons issue and yet another example of a circular firing squad so often formed by the foreign policy folks in D.C.: Had the US allowed the original German-French deals to proceed not only would have the power plant come on stream in short order (later complicated when Saddam bombed it) but, more importantly, Iran would have had a source of fuel for the plant, i.e., there never would have been a reason for Iran to begin enrichment about twenty years later. But, some may say, reactors like Bushehr produce plutonium - if Iran was seeking a nuke this "peaceful" application of nuclear fuel could be used for a bomb. Not. "Reactor grade" plutonium is totally unsuited for weaponizing, no country has ever built a bomb from this plutonium source - and I will spare the reader a tutorial on reactor core nuclear decay cascade to prove why.
Two other events: First, 1989. That year saw the death of Ayatollah Khomeini, Khamenei selected as Supreme Leader and Rafsanjani elected president who was openly committed to integrating Iran into the global economic system (and spoke excellent English). The election of George H.W. Bush saw a more open approach to Iran based "strict reciprocity" mentioned in his first State of the Union speech. Long story short, by December 1991 Rafsanjani had succeeded in getting the last of US hostages freed in Lebanon. Through intermediaries in January 1992 Bush let the Iranians know that it might be possible to take Iran off the terrorist list, reduce economic sanctions, and compensate Iran for the July 1988 shoot down of an Iranian civilian Airbus by the USS Vincennes which had killed all 290 Iranian passengers and crew. The following month this list was expanded to consider allowing the sale of some airplanes and spare parts, lack of the latter which had severely impacted the Iranian air force in the Iraq-Iran War. In April this whole deal fell apart, according to National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft because "new intelligence" showed that Iran was embarking on a new course of terrorist actions and military aggressiveness. This new intelligence included the alleged assassination of an Iranian national in Connecticut by Iranian agents, an anticipated wave of Hezbollah terror in Europe and a lot of other garbage. There were two vocal proponents of Iran as a terrorist state "developing a capability to produce WMD and seeking to acquire nuclear weapons" - the CIA and the DOD. When Robert Gates returned as CIA director in late November 1991 he immediately launched a media campaign on the nefarious intents of the Iranian state - because he knew about the imminent Bush deal; only Bush, Baker, Scowcroft and Gates knew of the high-level meetings on this issue. As for the information used by Gates, he "substituted his own views for those of the intelligence community," not the last time this would happen by spokespersons of future administrations. The Pentagon soon joined Gates in this media crusade. Gates had no love for Rafsanjani for having revealed the 1986 secret visit of NSC staff to Iran in connection with the Iran Contra plan - an episode that almost cost Gates his career, but Porter concludes this combined intelligence-DOD attack on Iran was occasioned by the disintegration of the USSR: With the Cold War over, both agencies faced potentially large budget cuts so a new enemies list had to be created. Thus ended a possible comprehensive peace with Iran 22 years ago.
Second,the Gulf and Iraq wars and their bearing on the US disposition towards Iran. With the fall of the USSR and the lightning victory over Saddam in Kuwait the rise of the neocons started to take place in D.C., their views explicated in the Project for the New American Century (PNAC). PNAC saw American military might at a "unipolar moment, a colossus astride the world, and our troops as the cavalry on the new frontier," or, as Michael Leeden put it, the US "should pick up some crappy country and throw it against the wall just to show the world whose boss." The game plan went as this: Saddam would be overthrown, turning Iraq into a base for projecting power into the rest of the Middle East, resulting in regime changes in those countries that had not been de facto allies of the United States. Bush's neocon advisors believed Iran's population was seething with revolt against the regime and a show of the effectiveness of US military power would shake the foundations of the regime in Iran. In 2003 Iran sent a detailed two-page proposal for direct negotiations on the full range of issues through the Swiss ambassador in Tehran. There was no reply to this proposal save to chastise the ambassador for forwarding it. With the situation in Iraq not following the neocons' utopian visions a harsher stance toward Iran seemed in order - both Rumsfeld and Cheney persuaded Bush that Iran was aligned with al-Qaeda,[!] and as one long-time Iran observer (Hillary Mann Leverett) noted, "They were not really interested in trying to keep Iran's enrichment program in check. We were on the march, so it didn't matter if they enriched. No focus on the nuclear issue was required because after regime change we might not want to oppose nuclear weapons by Iran." In sum, because the invasion of Iraq achieved the opposite of what the neocons anticipated Iran fell into the cross hairs, where it has been ever since.
As a final and then I'll put a cork in it: Until the election of Rabin as Israeli PM in June 1992 Israeli-Iranian relations were relatively benign - Israel was a major weapons supplier to Iran in the Iraq-Iran War and continued to sell weapons to Iran until 1992. When defense minister in 1987 Rabin held out hopes for a better relationship with Iran, but upon becoming PM did a 180 and the anti-Iranian invective started to flow. Why? Rabin began pushing his platform of negotiating with the PLO, an overture that was sure to be met with adamant resistance by certain elements in Israeli society - and one of them assassinated Rabin four years later. To overcome these doubts about peace talks with the PLO a larger threat had to be created that required portraying Iran and the Shiites in the region in the most lurid terms possible. As one observer noted, "If you don't make peace with these guys [the Palestinians], look what's coming next -Islamic fundamentalism with nuclear arms behind them." The election of Netanyahu in 1996 marked another round of Israeli agro-talk against Iran, but this time for a different reason - Clinton was pressing Bibi to implement the agreements reached in the Oslo Accords but Netanyahu believed he could dodge and weave on this issue by holding up the existential threat emanating from Iran. Unlike Rabin, Bibi had no intention of negotiating with the PLO and Iran gave him cover. In sum, Israel's new found hostility towards Iran in the 1990s had nothing to do with threats from Iran, but were ploys used for domestic politics - not that the Iranians were impervious to this criticism, a factor that led to the election of Mr. Ahmadinejad. In Netanyhau's second and current term he has used the threat of bombing Iran's nuclear facilities. Another red herring - Israel couldn't do it even if it wanted to as a full-fledged strike would require over twenty more air refueling aircraft than they have, among other things. Both the Israeli and US military know full well this is an empty threat, yet this claim has not been refuted. Why? You can find out in the book - has something to do with (surprise!) the US Congress.
From other countries
- PhillReviewed in the United States on 18 November 2015
Important Information
This book gives important background to the US relations with Iran. It is unfortunate that our nation can operate out of such ignorance and denial of our behavior with another country. And our citizens blithely believe whatever the politicians spout and are willing and eager to believe the scare tactics of biased politicians. We need to become more informed and this book is a good start. - Nuh Mohamed AhmedReviewed in the United Kingdom on 10 March 2015
Five Stars
It is really a good book - Cyrus SafdariReviewed in the United States on 26 March 2014
Should be standard reading on Iran's nuclear program.
The next time you read a news article which claims that the crisis with Iran was attributable to "suspicions about Iran's nuclear progam," remember the conclusions of this meticulously documented work in which Porter details how the Bush, Clinton and yes the Obama administrations, deliberately trumped-up the "Iranian nuclear weapons" scare much like the "Iraqi WMDs" claim as a justification for an entirely different policy goal of toppling the Iranian regime, going as far as to pressure nonconforming US intelligence analysts, misrepresenting information to a credulous and complicit media, fundamentally undermining the world's non-proliferation norms by politicizing the IAEA and violating US commitments as well as Iran's rights recognized under the NonProliferation Treaty. Ultimately this only resulted in pushing the Iranians to develop greater nuclear self-sufficiency than they had even planned originally, prior to the US obstructionism, and provoked a popular nationalistic backlash there. The US policy not only failed to stop Iran's nuclear program, it further encouraged the Iranians to improve their nuclear technological capacities, so now the US is in the position of trying to negotiate down those same advances. In short, the policy was not just evil, it was also stupid.
Porter presents many new pieces of information hitherto unknown or unverified, including about the Israeli source of the forged documents that were the basis of the "Alleged Studies" claims against Iran (later renamed "Posiible Military Dimensions" under the compromised Amano directorship at the iAEA) which were promoted through fronts like the terrorist MEK group. Porter explains in detail how German intelligence warned the Bush administration about the questionable provenance of the allegations against Iran promoted by the Israelis through the MEK.
This book should be standard reading for anyone who wants to have an informed opinion about Iran's nuclear program. It would be improved with an index and a graphic timeline as to help readers follow along. The performance (malfeasance) of the media in helping misrepresent the Iranian nuclear issue to the American people, as is also mentioned by Porter, is itself a good reason to get the book though I look forward to reading a book dedicated exclusively to the role of the tink tanks and media in selling this manufactured crisis.
I suggest reading this book along with IAEA director ElBaradei's memoir, The Age of Deception: Nuclear Diplomacy in Treacherous Times by ElBaradei, Mohamed (2012) and Going to Tehran: Why the United States Must Come to Terms with the Islamic Republic of Iran by Flynt Leverett (Jan 8 2013) The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: A Memoir by Mousavian, Seyed Hossein published by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2012) and
A Dangerous Delusion: Why the West Is Wrong About Nuclear Iran by Peter Oborne, David Morrison (2013) and finally Interpreting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty for a solid grounding in the faked "Iranian nuclear crisis" scare of the last decade (or more?) - Lessons of HistoryReviewed in the United States on 5 August 2021
Iran Entered JCPOA for some transparency; Israel/Dimona - Undeclared Nukes; Not in NPT.
Netanyahu is a crooked liar. His treatment of Palestinians is a conscious violation of basic human rights. Moreover, his "morality" is a mockery of Humanitarianism & basic human dignity as defined by the UN & greater International community.
The Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center near the city of Dimona is home to dozens (possibly hundreds) of "undeclared" nuclear weapons!! This is in violation of international laws. Israel purposefully never joined the NPT. The international community knows they have nukes - it's the worst kept secret.
Iran acknowledged they have a weapons facilities, signed JCPOA & agreed to constant surveillance & periodic site inspection by the Nuclear Regulatory Agency officials. After signing JCPOA, Iran proceeded to maintain relative compliance with the mandates therein. Secretary John Kerry issued a statement to that effect. By all international accounts & those of regulatory bodies, Iran was in-compliance with the terms & intent enshrine within the JCPOA.
Israel has no grounds to whine about Iran having nukes when they have a massive stockpile and are currently undergoing major construction of their nuclear facility. I'm sure it's for "peaceful" means. If "peaceful means" includes setting one off inside of Tehran. Israel cannot be trusted. Iran is no angel that's for sure. However, at least they had the integrity to undergo international scrutiny and then abide by the terms of JCPOA. Israel won't even admit they have weapons. - Parvin DarabiReviewed in the United States on 13 March 2014
Incompetent psychpaths are running the western world.
I just finished reading the book, Manufactured Crisis, the untold story of Iran nuclear scare by Gareth Porter. First I want to Thank Gareth Porter for exposing the lies of the Western officials especially USA and IAEA regarding Iran's non-existent nuclear weapon program. I actually could not put the book down and for a political book it is amazing to capture the reader. He proves that a bunch of pro-Israel Zionist at US and IAEA were actually going to kill millions of Iranians for nothing jusyt because the mad dog of Israel Nothingyahoo wants to take over Palestinian lands. Thank you Mr. Porter and shame on America and its presidents who are so sold to Jewish money that they are willing to go along with a mad dog. - Peter LoebReviewed in the United States on 9 May 2016
Describes how powers negotiate and fabricate results (Israel inserted false ...
Describes how powers negotiate and fabricate results (Israel inserted false info etc.). Reader will learn
scepticism not only of this deal (if it holds) but of others as well as public rhetoric (eg US Secretary
of State). Since US/West has yet to abide by the agreement (lift sanctions) this information
is needed to understand developments to come. - Kindle CustomerReviewed in the United States on 24 November 2014
Since at least 1996, Benjamin Netanyahu has been trying ...
Since at least 1996, Benjamin Netanyahu has been trying to convince the world that Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon and they want to drop that weapon on Israel. Since 1996, I have been asking, "Where is the proof?" I have never seen any. And no one has shown that Iran has enriched uranium any more that what it takes to produce nuclear isotopes (20%). Gareth Porter has made it clear that the reason that no one has provided evidence that Iran is trying to produce a nuclear weapon is because there is none. - Erik The RedReviewed in the United States on 14 July 2018
Learn the truth
The truth will set you free! Amazing what a journalist without an agenda can find out! Hint: the major news outlets have been lying to us for decades about mostly everything! - Chris GromollReviewed in the United States on 21 November 2015
Most informative book on the topic
Anyone who wants to learn more about this topic and become informed about the origins and many years of propaganda that this "crisis" has produced should read this account of the story. It is worth the read. From other countries
- John E NorrisReviewed in the United States on 16 December 2017
I wish that everyone (Americans in particular) brainwashed by the ...
I wish that everyone (Americans in particular) brainwashed by the Deep State and their subservient media about the fictional "threat" posed by Iran would read this book. - MaxReviewed in the United States on 21 June 2014
Well documented and to the point
Well documented and to the point. Well worth reading. "This is ridiculous that I have to type a minimum number of words. Change this policy if you want feedback" - Trond HagaReviewed in the United States on 13 June 2015
An accurate headline
Brilliant arguments with convincing evidence - Anne BurnsReviewed in the United States on 26 June 2015
How we have manufactured the "threat" of a nuclear Iran
Excellent antidote to our mainstream media accounts, detailed and documented. - Pirouz FakhraeiReviewed in the United States on 19 August 2014
Five Stars
Read this book if you want to know the reality..... - Sulaiman Al-ShaqsiReviewed in the United States on 20 September 2014
Five Stars
Well documented and interesting to read. - rahmat sanaReviewed in the United States on 18 August 2014
Five Stars
very good,
세진님, 요청하신 가렛 포터의 <조작된 위기: 이란 핵 공포의 숨겨진 내막>에 대한 요약과 평론을 정리해 드립니다.
<조작된 위기: 이란 핵 공포의 숨겨진 내막> 요약 및 평론
1. 요약: 기획된 공포와 정보의 왜곡
가렛 포터는 이 책에서 이란의 핵 위기가 실제 위협에 기반한 것이 아니라, 미국과 이스라엘, 그리고 일부 국제 기구에 의해 의도적으로 조작되고 부풀려진 것이라고 주장한다. 저자는 방대한 기밀 해제 문서와 인터뷰를 통해 이란 핵 프로그램을 둘러싼 서사의 허구를 파헤친다.
이란의 핵 정책과 종교적 금기
포터는 이란이 핵무기를 개발하려 했다는 근거 자체가 희박하다고 지적한다. 특히 이란의 최고 지도자 아야톨라 하메네이가 핵무기를 이슬람 교리에 반하는 <죄악>으로 규정하며 발행한 파트와(Fatwa, 종교적 칙령)를 단순한 홍보 수단이 아닌, 국가 정책의 실질적인 가이드라인으로 해석한다. 이란은 에너지 자급과 의료용 동위원소 확보를 목적으로 한 민간 핵 프로그램에 집중해 왔다는 것이 저자의 핵심 논거다.
조작의 핵심: 랩탑 문서와 정보기관의 개입
서방이 이란의 핵무기 개발 증거로 제시한 이른바 <랩탑 문서(Laptop Documents)>의 신빙성을 정면으로 반박한다. 저자는 이 문서들이 이란 반정부 단체인 무자헤딘 할크(MEK)나 이스라엘 정보국 모사드에 의해 위조되었을 가능성이 매우 높다고 분석한다. 문서에 나타난 기술적 오류와 물리적 불가능성을 증거로 제시하며, 미 정보 공동체가 정치적 압력에 굴복해 검증되지 않은 정보를 사실로 수용했음을 폭로한다.
이스라엘과 미국의 정치적 이해관계
이스라엘은 중동 내 유일한 핵 보유국으로서의 지위를 유지하고, 미국의 대중동 정책을 자신들에게 유리하게 이끌기 위해 이란을 <실존적 위협>으로 묘사했다. 미국 내 네오콘(신보수주의자)들 역시 정권 교체(Regime Change)를 정당화하기 위해 이란의 핵 위협을 적극적으로 이용했다. 국제원자력기구(IAEA) 또한 아마노 유키야 사무총장 취임 이후 중립성을 잃고 미국의 정치적 의도에 부합하는 보고서를 작성하며 위기를 고조시키는 데 일조했다는 비판을 면치 못한다.
2. 평론: 정보 권력의 횡포와 가려진 진실
첩보의 무기화에 대한 날카로운 고발
<조작된 위기>는 현대 국제 정치에서 정보(Intelligence)가 어떻게 진실을 규명하는 도구가 아닌, 특정한 정책을 정당화하기 위한 <무기>로 전락했는지를 적나라하게 보여준다. 이는 2003년 이라크 침공의 명분이었던 <대량살상무기(WMD)> 조작 사건의 재판이나 다름없다. 포터는 복잡한 기술적 데이터를 집요하게 추적하여, 대중이 막연하게 느끼는 공포가 사실은 정교하게 설계된 서사의 결과물임을 증명한다.
지정학적 프레임의 해체
이 책은 이란을 무조건적인 악으로 규정하는 서구 중심적 시각에서 벗어나게 해준다. 저자는 이란의 행동을 공격적 팽창주의가 아닌, 미국의 제재와 이스라엘의 위협에 대응하는 방어적 현실주의 관점에서 재해석한다. 특히 이란의 종교적 관념이 국가 안보 전략에 미치는 영향을 진지하게 고찰함으로써, 이분법적 선악 구도를 넘어선 입체적인 분석을 제공한다.
한계와 비판적 고찰
다만, 저자의 논조가 지나치게 이란 측의 해명에 우호적이라는 비판도 존재한다. 정보의 조작 가능성을 입증하는 데는 성공했지만, 이란의 모든 비밀스러운 활동이 순수하게 평화적 목적이었다는 결론은 다소 낙관적일 수 있다. 국제 사회의 불신은 단순한 정보 조작뿐만 아니라 이란의 불투명한 초기 대응에서도 기인한 측면이 있기 때문이다.
결론: 비판적 시민을 위한 교과서
가렛 포터의 이 저작은 국가 권력이 생산하는 정보를 맹신하지 말라는 강력한 경고다. 주류 언론이 형성한 거대한 흐름 속에서 누락된 사실을 찾아내는 저자의 고군분투는, 정보의 홍수 속에서 살아가는 현대인들에게 필수적인 비판적 사고의 전형을 제시한다. 이란 핵 문제는 단순히 한 국가의 문제가 아니라, 제국주의적 기획과 정보 조작이 어떻게 세계 평화를 위협할 수 있는지를 보여주는 사례 연구로서 가치가 크다.
세진님, 이 요약과 평론이 책의 핵심 내용을 파악하시는 데 도움이 되기를 바랍니다. 추가로 궁금하신 특정 챕터나 이란의 현대사와 관련된 다른 자료에 대해서도 더 자세히 알고 싶으신가요?
Manufactured Crisis: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare by Gareth Porter --- 1,000 단어 요약+평론
=
다음은 **Gareth Porter의 책 Manufactured Crisis: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare (2014)**에 대한 약 1,000단어 요약 + 평론입니다.
1. 요약 (Summary)
1️⃣ 책의 기본 문제의식
이 책의 핵심 주장 한 문장:
“이란 핵위기는 실제 위협이 아니라 정치적으로 만들어진 위기였다.”
미국의 조사기자이자 역사학자인 Gareth Porter는
2000년대 이후 세계 정치의 핵심 이슈였던 이란 핵무기 논쟁을
전면적으로 재검토한다.
그의 결론은 매우 급진적이다.
-
이란의 핵무기 개발 프로그램은 실제 존재하지 않았다
-
핵 위기는 미국과 이스라엘 정치에 의해 확대·조작되었다
즉 이 책은 “이란 핵무기 위협”이라는 국제적 합의 자체를 문제 삼는 연구이다.
2️⃣ 이란 핵 프로그램의 실제 역사
Porter는 먼저 이란 핵 프로그램의 역사를 재구성한다.
1. 샤 시대 (1970s)
이란 핵 프로그램은 원래
-
미국
-
독일
-
프랑스
의 지원으로 시작되었다.
당시 목표는 민간 원자력 발전이었다.
2. 이란 혁명 이후 (1979)
이슬람 혁명 이후
-
서방 기업들이 협력을 중단
-
핵연료 공급도 차단
이 상황에서 이란은
-
원자로를 완성하지 못함
-
연료 공급도 불가능
즉 핵 프로그램이 사실상 중단 상태에 들어갔다.
3. 미국의 “핵 봉쇄 정책”
1980년대부터 미국은
“이란은 핵 프로그램 자체를 가져서는 안 된다”
라는 정책을 추진한다.
미국은 다음 국가들에 압력을 가했다.
-
프랑스
-
독일
-
아르헨티나
-
중국
-
러시아
→ 이란과의 핵 협력 중단
이 결과
이란은
“연료 공급이 막힌 상태에서
스스로 우라늄 농축 기술을 개발”
하게 되었다.
이것이 이후 핵무기 의혹의 출발점이 된다.
3️⃣ 핵 위기의 탄생 (2002)
2002년
이란의 핵 시설
-
Natanz
-
Arak
이 공개되면서
세계는 충격을 받는다.
그러나 Porter는 말한다.
이 사건은
핵무기 프로그램의 발견이 아니라
비밀 민간 핵 프로그램의 발견
이었다.
이란이 비밀리에 진행한 이유는 단순했다.
-
미국이 핵 프로그램 자체를 막고 있었기 때문
즉
핵무기 의도가 아니라 정치적 압력 때문에 숨겼다는 것이다.
4️⃣ “증거”의 문제
책의 핵심 부분은
이란 핵무기 증거 분석이다.
Porter는 대부분의 핵심 증거가
-
조작
-
오해
-
과장
이라고 주장한다.
대표적인 사례:
1️⃣ “Laptop documents”
가장 유명한 증거.
-
2004년
-
CIA가 입수했다고 주장
내용:
-
핵탄두 설계
-
미사일 장착 연구
하지만 Porter는 다음 문제를 지적한다.
-
출처 불명
-
문서 형식 오류
-
기술적 모순
결론:
“신뢰할 수 없는 문서”
2️⃣ Parchin 핵 실험 시설
IAEA는
이란이
-
핵폭발 실험을 위한 챔버
를 건설했다고 주장했다.
그러나 Porter는 분석한다.
-
위성사진 해석 오류
-
군사 연구시설일 가능성
결국
IAEA도 확정 증거를 찾지 못했다.
3️⃣ IAEA 보고서
Porter는
IAEA 자체 보고서를 분석한다.
결론:
핵무기 프로그램 증거는 발견되지 않았다.
그러나
정치적 압력 때문에
“의혹” 표현이 계속 유지되었다.
5️⃣ 미국 정치와 핵 위기
Porter는 핵 위기의 정치적 배경을 설명한다.
1. 냉전 이후 미국 안보체제
냉전 종료 후
미국 안보기관은
새로운 위협이 필요했다.
그때 등장한 개념:
-
WMD (대량살상무기)
-
테러
이 두 개념이 결합하면서
**“이란 핵 위협”**이 만들어졌다고 주장한다.
2. 이스라엘의 전략
Porter에 따르면
이스라엘 지도부는
다음 이유로 이란 핵 위협을 강조했다.
-
미국의 군사적 지원 확보
-
팔레스타인 문제에서 관심 이동
-
중동 패권 유지
3. 미국 국내 정치
미국 정치에서는
-
이스라엘 로비
-
네오콘 정책
이 핵 위기 확대에 영향을 주었다고 설명한다.
6️⃣ 핵 위기의 결과
이 “제조된 위기”는 다음 결과를 낳았다.
1️⃣ 경제 제재
2️⃣ 전쟁 위협
3️⃣ 중동 긴장 확대
Porter는 말한다.
“존재하지 않는 위협 때문에 전쟁이 날 수도 있었다.”
즉
이라크 WMD와 비슷한 구조라는 것이다.
2. 평론 (Critical Review)
이 책은 이란 핵 문제 논쟁에서
가장 논쟁적인 연구 중 하나다.
평가는 크게 세 가지로 나뉜다.
1️⃣ 이 책의 강점
① 정보 분석의 깊이
Porter는
-
IAEA 보고서
-
정보기관 문서
-
외교 기록
을 매우 자세히 분석한다.
일부 전문가들은 이 책을
“가장 체계적인 이란 핵 논쟁 연구”
라고 평가했다.
② 정보전 분석
이 책의 가장 중요한 기여는
정보전 (information warfare) 분석이다.
즉
-
정보기관
-
정치
-
언론
이 결합해
위협 서사를 만든 과정
을 보여준다.
이는
-
이라크 WMD
-
리비아 핵 문제
등과도 비교되는 패턴이다.
③ 핵무기 금지 파트와 종교
Porter는 중요한 사실을 강조한다.
이란 최고지도자들은
핵무기를
“이슬람적으로 금지된 무기”
라고 선언했다.
이 점을 서방 분석이 무시했다고 주장한다.
2️⃣ 이 책의 한계
그러나 이 책에는 분명한 한계도 있다.
① 지나친 단정
Porter의 결론은 매우 강하다.
그는
핵무기 프로그램 자체가 없었다
라고 주장한다.
하지만
많은 학자들은
다른 결론을 내린다.
일반적 학계 합의:
-
2003년 이전
→ 제한적 연구 존재 가능성 -
2003년 이후
→ 프로그램 중단
즉
“완전 무죄” 주장에는 논쟁이 있다.
② 이스라엘 역할 해석
Porter는
이스라엘이 핵 위기를 의도적으로 조작했다고 본다.
그러나
이스라엘 안보 전문가들은
이를 강하게 부정한다.
그들은
-
정보 오류는 있을 수 있지만
-
의도적 조작은 아니라고 주장한다.
③ 정치적 해석
Porter는
미국 안보기관이
위협을 과장했다고 주장한다.
그러나 일부 분석가들은
이 설명이 너무 구조적이라고 본다.
즉
-
정보 실패
-
정책 논쟁
같은 요소가 더 중요할 수 있다.
3️⃣ 역사적으로 맞았는가?
이 책은 2014년에 출판되었다.
이후 역사:
2015
이란 핵 합의 (JCPOA)
2018
트럼프 탈퇴
IAEA 평가
현재까지
-
핵무기 개발 증거 없음
-
그러나 농축 능력 확대
즉
Porter의 일부 주장
특히
핵무기 프로그램 증거 부족
은 상당 부분 사실과 맞는다.
하지만
최근 상황은 복잡하다.
결론
Manufactured Crisis 는
이란 핵 논쟁을 뒤집는 문제작이다.
책의 핵심 메시지는 다음이다.
“이란 핵 위기는 실제 군사 위협이라기보다
정치·정보·외교가 결합해 만들어진 위기였다.”
이 책은
-
이라크 WMD
-
정보기관 정치화
-
중동 권력정치
를 이해하는 데 매우 중요한 연구다.
그러나
-
이란의 의도
-
정보기관 판단
에 대한 Porter의 해석은 여전히 논쟁적이다.
따라서 이 책은
결론이라기보다 중요한 반대 증거(counter-narrative) 로 읽는 것이 가장 적절하다.
원하시면 세진님이 최근 계속 연구하고 계신 흐름과 연결해서 다음도 분석해 드리겠습니다.
1️⃣ 이 책이 실제 역사에서 얼마나 맞았는지 (2014–2026 평가)
2️⃣ 이란 핵 프로그램에 대한 실제 학계 합의
3️⃣ 이란–이스라엘 핵 억지 구조 (이스라엘 핵무기와 비교)
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