The Re-Alignment Of The Middle East After The Iran War.
This is the issue that occupies my mind, and not the outcome of the present conflict between the US/Israel against Iran. It is clear to me that the Americans are headed for a catastrophic defeat. The braggadocio of Trump and Hegseth cannot disguise the reality on the ground. And the much talked about upcoming ground offensive to capture Kharg Island and also re-open the Strait of Hormuz, is too ridiculous to contemplate. So America thinks that it can accomplish the re-opening of Hormuz with barely 17,000 troops. That should make your toes laugh!
I expect that after the war, the following will happen:-
1. America’s presence in the Gulf would be reduced to virtually nothing.
This is a fundamental demand of the Iranians if there is to be a ceasefire. Already 13 out of the approximately 19 American bases in the region have been totally destroyed and rendered in-operable. These include the naval base in Bahrain, which is the headquarters of the American 5th fleet, and also Al-Udeid in Qatar, which is the largest US air-base in the Middle East. The patriots and Thaads were useless and unable to defend America’s own bases.
2. Iran will gain absolute control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran will go from controlling 4% of the world’s oil to 25%, which is the quantity that passes through the Strait every day. America will be so eager to close peace deal, it will sell the rest of the world down the river in order to have a deal. Trump is much more interested in saving himself in the mid-term elections in America than the rest of the world.
3. Iran and Turkey will emerge as the major regional powers. The world needs these 2 countries to become strong to confront the terrorist state known as Israel, which has the support of America. Otherwise, the Zionist crazies will wage perpetual wage to create Greater Israel, which will not only comprise of present day Israel, but also the Palestinian Territories, southern Lebanon and parts of Syria and Jordan. These Zionist crazies will be egged on by their American stooges, people such as Mike Huckerbee ( US Ambassador to Israel ), Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner ( Trump’s son-in-law), Pete Hegseth and Senators Ted Cruz and Lindsay Graham, who are firmly in the pockets of Israel. I go against convention and dare to say that we will see a far safer and peaceful Middle East if Iran and Turkey emerge as the regional powers. Turkey is especially important because it is already NATO’s 2nd most powerful military and because only a short distance separates it from Israel, and if the Turks need to, they can march into Israel and destroy the terrorist state.
4. Countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE will lose their relevance once the Americans leave the region. Maybe for the Saudis, they would still have some relevance as a major oil producing country but the UAE would be rendered absolutely insignificant.
I say this because these 2 countries are lightweight military powers. Saudi spends about US$90 billion a year buying expensive American military toys. This is one of the largest military budgets in the world. But they have been bombing the Yemenis since 2015 in the Yemeni civil war and have performed miserably. They can’t even subdue the Houthis. So the Saudis are just not very good despite their huge wealth.
The Emiratis spend about US$25 billion a year on their military, also buying expensive American military toys and are as hopeless as the Saudis. They don’t have operational experience. Iran can easily invade and occupy the UAE if it wants to. UAE is just a short distance across the Persian Gulf from Iran. Abu Dhabi and Dubai, which have been the mecca for the global millionaires and billionaires will resemble the ghost cities of China after this war when their expat populations hollow out.
Only Qatar is the smart country, which appears to be moving away from the Americans and pledging support for and cooperation with Iran. There are reports suggesting that Qatar has paid Iran US$6 billion for not further striking at them.
Not much needs to be said of Bahrain, which is already a failed state. There are reports that the ruling family has fled. Kuwaiti is insignificant and irrelevant and has been since Saddam Hussein invaded it in 1990.
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