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Can Israel & the U.S. Sustain Iran's Military Power? (w/ Alastair Crooke) | The Chris Hedges Report
The Chris Hedges YouTube Channel
394,249 views Mar 7, 2026 The Chris Hedges Report
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The Iran War has just begun — but already, Iran’s military prowess, and America’s and Israel’s impulsive imperial hubris, is on display.
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Transcript
The ineptitude of Donald Trump, Pete Hegsth, and Marco Rubio is turning the
war against Iran into a very lethal version of the gang that couldn't shoot straight. The excuses for the war, and
the goals shift by the hour. Is it to take out the nuclear program Trump insisted was obliterated last June? Or
is it to, as Steve Witkoff says, go after Iran because they are a week away
from producing industrial-grade weapons usable nuclear material, a claim that
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and proponents of the war with Iran have been repeating for about three
decades? Is it about regime change or is it, as Rubio said, being fought because
the US had to join Israel, which was determined to attack to prevent preemptive attacks on US assets? The US
killed the top leaders of Iran, including the supreme leader, and then killed the second tier of Iranian
leaders. It said it hoped to negotiate with "Most of the people we had in mind are dead," Trump admitted. "And now we
have another group. They may be dead, also based on reports." Trump demands
the Iranian army surrender or face absolute guaranteed death. He says he
will order the US Navy to escort tankers and ships through the narrow straight of Hormuz, a move that would line up US
ships in what would become an Iranian Turkey shoot. Hegs insists Trump will
decide who will rule Iran while our ally in Kuwait shot down three US fighter
jets. the US or Israel or both, we don't know yet. Obliterated in elementary
school, killing 175 school girls and over a thousand Iranian civilians have
already been killed. Thrron is being pummeled with thousands of bombs. And yet Trump and his vile counterpart in
Israel claim this is a war of liberation. Meanwhile, the CIA, which has spent decades fueling one tobacco
after another in the Middle East, has embraced arming Kurdish militias to bring down the Iranian regime. If one
thing is clear, it is that Trump and his codory of misfits and buffoons have no
idea what they are doing. Joining me to discuss the war in Iran and its consequences is Alistister Crook, a
former British diplomat and member of the British uh uh negotiating teams. He
served for many years in the Middle East uh as a security adviser to the EU,
special envoy to the Middle East, as well as helping lead efforts to set up negotiations and truses between Hamas,
Islamic Jihad, and other Palestinian resistance groups uh with Israel. He was instrumental in establishing the 2002
ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. He's also the author of Resistance: The
Essence of the Islamist Revolution, which analyzes the ascendancy of Islamic
Movements in the Middle East. Well, I don't know where to begin. Uh I'll let you begin with this uh utter uh
fiasco uh which is rapidly of course spreading throughout uh the region. give
us, I guess, in your view, uh, a kind of overview of where we are and what's
what's happening. Um well, you listed some of the options
for what the war was about at just now at the start, but actually it wasn't
really like that because and we've seen it very clearly because it was reported
extensively in the Hebrew press, not in English language press, but in the Hebrew press, which we monitor quite
carefully. um when Netanyahu went at the end of the year 28th 29th of December um
to Mara Lago for his summit uh with Trump. At that summit um he said some
things which were were a little bit surprising um but are relevant to today.
He said to him, "Listen, the nuclear issue isn't the issue. I'm not going to tell you they're a month away from a
nuclear weapon. No, actually what I'm going to tell you is you've got to
change the priorities. The first priority is the Iranian missile system.
We have to destroy that because what is happening is the system is becoming much
more sophisticated. It is not just that after the June war uh they replaced it.
They have created a completely new defense paradigm in the interim and the
it has several layers to it. And I'm telling you that if you do not destroy
the missile system, even if Iran got a nuclear weapon or we knew that it was
going to move to nuclear weapon, we could do nothing about it because we wouldn't be able uh to penetrate um that
umbrella. And he said, "So this is what you have to do." And um Trump agreed at
that point, gave the green light for an attack on Iran. This is reported in
various um Hebrew uh accounts of this meeting that took place that he he
agreed to do an attack and even the date was more or less set. In fact, the date changed a little bit, but it was set for
a certain week um uh uh in as we've seen at this time. And um Netanyahu also in
these accounts was very clear in saying um very clear in saying to Trump, listen
um you you have to do this um and furthermore, if you try and do a nuclear
agreement, if you try and come up with some nuclear way through, look, I'm the
one who gives this a kosher um certificate. He used those words, kosher
certificate. You're not going to get a kosher certificate for a nuclear agreement anyway. And you know, you know
that the right-wing in America will take their lead from me. No certificate, you
will be seen to fail. And what's more, if you don't do it still, we will do the
first attack and let's see you not join us. Of course, you have no choice. You
have to join us. So really in some respects you could say
um uh that Trump had no option. He was not given an option but to attack um
Iran. And then the actual pretext, the peg to hang it
on has changed several times since that time. the nuclear issue or weapons,
searching around for, if you like, the pretext to to to really hide that the
fact that this was compelled on him uh by Netanyahu,
which is what Rubio admitted, which is what Rubio admitted. I mean,
and the the compulsion was probably uh somewhat greater than than just that.
And maybe you know uh he was uh told
very clearly he had no choice. Let's talk about the missiles. What uh
you know what kinds of missiles are these Iranian-made missiles? Are these Chinese missiles? You talked about an
upgrade. Explain what that upgrade was. Also, uh explain what's happening now
because they're sending fleets of drones. My supposition is they're not sending their most sophisticated
weaponry uh one would expect so that they can deplete the interceptors.
That's absolutely you're absolutely correct. In fact, what they're using is the missile inventory from 2012 2013 at
the moment. Um very old missiles um and simple drones. uh and their purpose is
to deplete or to force Israel and the Gulf States um to deplete their
intercept capacities um which they are doing. And the what we see now is that
the Gulf ability to intercept um even drones is almost zero. Um I
think Gata still have some intercept capabilities in Aluade American base
there. But otherwise um drones are flying freely uh in Iranian drones are
flying freely over Doha um uh and Dubai and they are attacking bases right
across um the Gulf particularly um in Bahrain. Uh very focused on Bahrain. the
which is houses it hosts the fifth fleet the port but it hosts an array of
intelligence and other areas so they've used these drones and missiles to take
out the eyes of um the United States so they have destroyed these very expensive
radar capabilities um uh about four or five of them
sometimes they cost more than a billion dollars each. But all of these are being systematically destroyed. The only radar
capability probably is is uh uh is in Israel at this moment. But the Gulf has
lost all its radar capabilities. They weren't Gulf. These were big radars
that could see 500 miles. They were part of the most sophisticated element of the
American, if you like, ability to project a battlescape digitally and
through their satellites and through their radar systems in a joint approach. So that was what they were using those
drones for to begin with. uh and they'd said and they'd warned although it seems
to have taken the West by surprise but Iran was very explicit and said the
first focus will be on American bases in the Gulf in the Persian Gulf and
subsequently they have started and they've been moving carefully still
using mainly um older missiles um these ones from made that were made 20 years
ago some of them 2012 2020 2013 using
these older missiles but now they've just moved to the later ones and the
later ones are devastating. I'm talking about the Korum SH 4 example uh which is
um a hypersonic missile. It it it flies at match 14
and it has uh multiple uh submunitions
80 subm munition warheads in it which are steerable and like it's a a multiple
arrival of 80 of these small if you like warheads.
that each of these has a warhead of about nearly 20 kilos. So they're not
huge bombs, but they're really significant. But if you have 80 of these
arriving together, they come more or less bunched, but they come bunched
within say uh an a radius of about 15 to 16 kilometers a total. So wide area and
it's like being shelled artillery shelled by 80 guns at the same time. So
it's very it's it's devastating and the Israelis it seems from all the evidence
we see that they cannot they cannot down missiles that are traveling at a speed
above M match 4. So they are not being able to to destroy those. They can take
down some of the slower missiles, but those slower missiles were fired precisely to draw um on the um
on on the intervening the ability to fire intervention missiles to try and
bring down those. And uh it's also very evident that Israel is now using those
in prodigious quantities. You can see from some of the videos that
are have get get through the um the censorship um that as the Iranian
missiles come in um Israel is firing perhaps 8 10 12 intercept missiles to
try and bring it down. That cannot go on for very long. they their their stocks
of these intercept missiles was low after the 12-day war in June. Um it
hasn't been fully restored. Um because America doesn't have many of these
intercept missiles and so there will come a time when they will run out. And
this is why you see now Iran using fewer missiles because they say we don't have
to use more because we fire one missile now and it it's and it takes down the
what remains of the intercept capacity o of Israel. So that is why um that is
what the missiles are and the Iranians say they also have newer missiles which
they will un show and un unfold at a later stage. They haven't reached that
stage yet but that is waiting um to be um used and deployed at a at the right
moment. they have um they're quite comfortable that they have huge missile
stocks that they can continue um for a long war.
Let me ask the what about the consequences of taking out those radar stations? What does that mean in terms
of uh deterrence capacity on the part of Israel and the United States?
It's enormously important because um these radars and the satellites are
interconnected. Um this is what in the Ukrainian context
is known as the ISR. This was you know the great this was the deciding sort of
factor of NATO's support for Ukraine. intelligence surveillance reconnaissance
which took the data from radars, the data from um Awax, whatever it was
flying, put it together and created, if you like, a virtual battle map and that
could be fed directly into a pilot. He didn't even have to see the enemy plane
or um the missile defense uh on the ground. They didn't even have to see it.
They just get the data coming in securely and then they can attack. Well,
now it was in the if you like Iran context, in the Ukraine context, this
was the sort of the prize. yours here. Oh yes, when it comes to firing missiles
into Russia. Well, that is comes from the American data and it's highly classified. So, it has to be done by the
Americans because this is the battlescape map that is being provided
um the precise targeting and the adjustments to it being provided uh to
the Ukrainians. Well, now what's happened is um that it seems uh that uh
some state has now provided um uh Iran with the same ISR
capabilities and that is hugely important
and and the loss of those radar stations in essence is that rendering Israel and
the United States in essence blind to what's coming in? Yes, but it's blinding
them precisely precisely it blinds them. Um, and what we're seeing, and this is
what, you know, they uh, I don't know precisely, but I think they have some
advanced uh, radars that can detect and lock on to stealth aircraft to uh, a
considerable distance, perhaps 500 kilometers uh, distance. And certainly
the Iranians are now able to lock on um
that and when when I talk about lock on I'm talking about uh a defense missile
system whose radar is locked on to an enemy aircraft and that that is a very
severe warning sign to that aircraft that they're about to get a a missile arriving on them.
So, we're seeing Israel and the United States target uh what they're saying are
uh ballistic missile depots, launch sites. Do you have any sense of how
successful those attacks are? Yes. Well, I have a a good idea that
they are not successful. Um and I say that because um the Iranians have
adopted uh a very decentralized command system and a decentralized
um if you like uh control of missiles system so that the missiles the I'm
talking about the longrange missiles are buried in silos across 57 districts
um of Iran and Iran is the size of Western Europe. I mean this is not a
small area and they are buried deeply and the big missiles, the serious
missiles can be fired are fired from underground through an underground silo.
They come straight out. There's no it's not a a moving, you know, there's not a moving launcher. They come straight out
of the ground and they are and they are fired from there and they can continue
to be fired from there even if command and control is lost. They were set up
with that sort of dead hand capacity. I do know about this cuz I did at one time
try and explain this to um the um American defense secretary at at then.
Uh and also that there were um short ship missiles buried deeply in into the
cliffs around the sea. Um because this is their deterrence is that these
missiles will not be destroyed and will be able to go on firing because they are
autonomously controlled by each district with a plan that is given to them in
advance of what they would do if the center and the command and control was
destroyed that they would continue to fight the war even if they had lost control. It was trial. I remember when I
was there in 2006 um in in in Lebanon with Hezbollah, but
this is now the fuller version which has been under preparation for for for for
many years. And their deterrence essentially is even if you destroy us,
you take out Thran, you take out the um the command, the army, the IRGC, the war
would still go on and Israel would be destroyed. That is what they warn.
I worked in Iran as you did and one of the things that uh was a reality of the
power structure in Iran is that power was decentralized into at least three factions. It did.
There wasn't a central power structure that was set up because they didn't want another shaw so I could get a visa from
the ministry of guidance while the foreign ministry had banned me or vice versa. I mean there was it was there was
a multi multi-polarity uh in terms of power systems and and
let's I I have other questions but let's just begin with the uh assassination the killing of the supreme leader and the
hierarchy of uh the Iranian government uh and and according to Trump the second
tier what does that mean? Um well the the the the the killing of
the supreme leader I I I mean you you know the details. I mean he was at home
and uh his family was with him because they opted to look after him and they
knew what was likely to happen. I mean he was at his desk. I've been I've seen
not inside his home but I've seen the the home which is in in North Thran. uh
it's a very humble straightforward building and he was working there and he
he had said just before it um he said I'm I'm 86 I'm semi-crippled
I have my dignity but that's all that I have but which it was something that you
gave to me and I'm happy to give my life for the Iranian people whether we find
that strange or not or whether we find it you irrational. That is how he thinks and he thought and
it is part of the culture of Iran. The idea of sacrifice and being willing to
pay that sacrifice for the interests of your people, for your civilization, for
your religion. He was very popular. He had a big following in Shia Islam. As
you know, they have a thing called um I suppose you call them the guides, maja.
This is the the the senior clerics. They don't give instructions, but you choose
which one you follow and you get their teaching, moral teaching, ethical
teaching, you know, teaching about marriage as well as everything else. Um
and he had one of the biggest followings not just in Iran but across the whole region. Um the supreme leader had a huge
following and so his death has really fired up Shi Islam not just in Iran but
in Iraq particularly but across the region and in Bahrain. Bahrain uh is
probably closer to regime change than any other state at this point. It's 70
to 80% shei and it is ruled by a Sunni king who has an all all Sunni protection
force surrounding him and there are huge protests and a huge demonstrations
and there's a if you like um uh at this time there is a a an uprising uh to to
to remove him and there've been support coming in forces is coming in from Saudi
Arabia across the bridge, but I I'm not sure if the bridge still exists to Saudi Arabia to try and um uh rescue rescue
him. So, it's had a big effect and there have been attempts to besiege the US
embassy in Baghdad. Huge numbers of protesters outside the Baghdad. There
were protesters in Pakistan besieging the consulate. uh and two or three of
these uh uh senior she leaders, religious leaders have have issued um
fatwis for jihad uh global jihad against the United States uh and Israel and
these are being followed up and it and it is having a a marked influence on
particularly the Iraqi militias, the Hashad uh groups who are attacking inner
bill and they are also attacking um uh uh American air defense systems and
American radar systems um throughout Iraq which are probably amongst the most
important because it's from Iraq that um Israel has been doing its
standoff um uh firing its standoff cruise missiles um into into Iran.
And we should note that at least 60% maybe more of the Iraqi population are
Shia. Uh and when you talk about attacks on uh that is the Kurdish area in the north
controlled by the Kurds. Uh perhaps no ethnic group in the Middle East has been used and discarded uh as much as the
Kurds and it looks like they're about to be used and discarded once again. So since you mentioned air bill, why don't
you talk about this idea of arming Kurdish militias to go into Iran?
Uh I don't think it'll happen at all. I don't think it it's um first of all uh
there was in June when there was an attempt. Let me just paint the
background because it's important. This is part of the Israeli, if you like,
ultimate plan for the future of Iran is to fire up separatist elements, Kurdish,
Beluchi, Azeris, all of these. They've actually written
separate constitutions, prepared con separate constitutions so that separate
um if you like self-sufficient states could be constructed in Iran to divide
Iran into sort of ethnic divisions and then the aim for Israel is then to have
uh ethno uh sectarian conflict between
these states to leave um Iran weakened um in in chaos and unable in any way to
threaten um Israel rather like we see in Syria. Um that is not the American
objective which is regime change. Just to be clear, the American at the moment
is simply to uh copy the Venezuela model
and to um if you like uh get rid of the the leader and that it was assumed
there'd be a popular uprising and there would be a popular um if you like
takeover of the government and that Trump would do some sort of deal with a
more amanable person and declare victory. And that's why it was supposed to be a
quick um operation. He keeps keep saying and talking about but you know I mean
Maduro it was the perfect operation. Quick, clean, short. We did that. So we
just have to kill the Ayatollah and then we'll be in the same position and we can
declare a victory and we can do that before the markets open on Monday. Uh
and of course it hasn't worked out like that. Instead of which there've been millions coming onto the streets in
Tehran. I mean it's Ramadan there but after the feast wi-i which marks the end
of the day of fasting um in Ramadan I mean the the the Tehran is just packed
with pro um uh prostate um support
support for the Islamic State. Would it be too much of a stretch to say
that this has ignited in the eyes of the Shia world a war against Shiism?
Um uh yes uh this is seen as uh if you like there is an overtone that not with
all of them but there is a tone of um jihad of holy war and this is being uh
of course this is being amplified by the fact uh that in in the United States uh
some of the instructions for commanders to brief their troops saying this is you know you know a God's
war this and that Trump is the instrument of God pursuing this war and
that it was written in the Bible and there have been I I believe you know
more than me but there have been many protests amongst the military at these
instructions that they've re received um calling it I mean so you know in a sense
this is a sort sort of escathological um element within the US and of course
each it feeds each is feeding the others escathological
uh um sentiments. So there's heavy military censorship uh
imposed in Israel. I I you've worked there, I've worked there. It's hard from a distance to get a read as to how
effective the strikes have been. What are your impressions? Um,
what you say is, uh, absolutely correct. The censorship, I mean, is absolutely
tight. Uh, anyone, uh, trying to film is immediately arrested or stopped. It's
very hard to get facts. But I I I I was
listening to um Colonel Wilkinson uh just recently who who was Colin Pal's
um chief of staff in that time a ser a military man with much experience and he
said he had witnessed some real videos coming out of uh Tel Aviv and he said
you know this is not AI this is the real stuff that has come through and he saw
watching a 15inute uh video and he said it is absolutely
devastating uh what is coming uh there it is relentless and it is continuous and you
see at the end of it you know there aren't even any uh intercept missiles
firing uh at that point so I think you know we don't know extent this was Tel
Aviv. Uh but we know that missiles are being fired across uh uh Israel. Um but
it seems that the damage is huge. What the consequences will be in Israel
is is not clear. We get very contradictory messages. You've probably heard them. Some people, you know, in
these things as in every war, you can be in one part and you say, well, nothing's happening. Everything seems normal and
then, you know, you go 500 kilome meters in another direction and it's mayhem and
it is a disaster. Um, so it's difficult to get a a an overall a concerted
picture, but I would say the damage far exceeds that uh of the 12-day war even
to date. And the Iranians intend to um slowly increase
the number of these koramshar and these hypersonic missiles which will be very
difficult for either the United States or for uh Israel um to shoot them down
and to stop them. So um big damage is happening there across the Gulf. It has
been huge for American bases. There's no doubt there. They've been they've been
destroyed. I think the the intent of is of Iran um in the Gulf, it's
particularly focused on the ports. Yeah. Across it. And I think the reason for
that is because the the the fifth fleet
um which is based in D Bahrain um is has
created a sort of a whole area around right up to HOS and the Persian Gulf and
even down to um if you like off Yemen there is a very small choke point naval
uh choke point in the south in order to control the corridors of energy to
control the corridors of economic business. um through this process. And I
think the Iranians are in the process of of flipping this um uh from Bethamuk
right through to to to Hos to reestablish more of Iranian um if you
like hedgemony across the these areas and to stop the American
um plan which was um I think foreshadowed in a um national security
statement the NSS released uh um not so long ago, a couple three months ago,
something Eldridge uh uh Colby Elbridge was supposed to be the author of most of
it. But one of the things it it contained in it was the idea that China
had to be coerced to change its economic model away from exporting to consuming
more. And you could do this by tariffs or you could do this by what we've seen
in Venezuela, naval blockades, um sanctioning of ships, um attempt to
create a siege. Um but also Russia increasingly is finding it's been under
the same sort of things. Um it's so-called shadow fleet being sanctioned,
sometimes seized. Um, and so there is a there's an impression, I think, in both
Moscow and China that America is intent on trying to
inflict hurt on China um through these means through taking control and
establishing uh a sort of hedgemony over the sea lanes and the choke points. The
same of course in China with that first island um uh continuum which is being
militarized by the United States presumably to to eventually if needed um
be um a siege condition uh on on China uh for vessels passing through that
narrow if you like uh seaway um by Indonesia into the China Sea uh and For
Russia, it's important too because they in the reverse way of of China, but they
want to export uh their oil and gas and do not want that to be under siege and
cailed and squeezed. So we're seeing a sort of I believe a a really major
geopolitical shift taking place. And so although the focus we all talk about you
know what's happening to the to the military and to the hotels where the military is staying but I think Iran's
um primary interest is to change the whole um situation the whole paradigm of
um the the the Gulf and the Red Sea and
the sea lanes adjacent to it. um and to take those out of um the American
dominance which they've been under for all this period. Let's talk about the straight of Hormuz.
It's a very narrow waterway. Iran has shut it down. Uh you know more than I do, but my understanding is not only uh
with the flick of a switch. Can they mine and these mines uh are kind of
autonomous? You can explain how they work. They also have missile batteries. Uh one of the most uh amazing comments
on the part of Trump was the idea that he would send US naval forces which is
just asking for every single ship to be blown out of the water. Uh and then also comment why uh in your view the United
States has made such a priority of destroying the Iranian Navy.
Um well yes I think to answer your second question first that is absolutely
what I'm talking about the aim to America's aim to create a dominance in
the field of energy and to be able to control China's economic ev evolution in
its development and at the same time reduce Russia 's economic prospects by
controlling um not just oil and gas and of course Iran has both of those in
abundance but not just control that but to control go back to the old system the
19th century system of controlling the waterways and controlling the checkpoints so that they can impose
blockades and sieges on China uh and on Russia.
to further as part of their economic if you like vision. So I mean Iran is a a
pawn in the bigger vision which is about um if you like how to take out the
bricks and how to if you like they can't I think militarily defeat China um but
simply to weaken it by withholding technology withholding oil and raw
materials from China and China is returning the compliment to the to the United States But nonetheless, this is
what I think um they're trying to do. So the the navy um the Iranian Navy, it has
a few sort of legacy ships um frigots and things like that and and America has
just sunk a couple that were in harbor that but very elderly things. The the
main thing that um Iran has are these fast vessels, these speedboat vessels
that have um uh shorter ship missiles. They're equipped with shorter ship
missiles and they have about I think 25 submarines, mini submarines, but they
can fire um anti-ship missiles from submerged uh state. Um, and these are
much more uh dangerous to um shipping than the old classic big big naval
vessels. Um, but now it's been opened up because as you probably saw um the
Iranians had sent an unarmed ship to a courtesy call in India, a naval exercise
that they'd been invited by the Indian government to participate in. And that
vessel was there and America sank it. A submarine torpedoed it and sank it. I
think well over a 100 sailors were killed. Bodies are still washing up into Sri Lanka. Uh and some were saved but
most of them have died. So I think you know it's quite clear I don't think that
Iran is going to um be particularly lenient about um and American naval
ships trying to to guard uh a tanker or or or a vessel going through a hormuz
after they sank as I say a ship uh a
courtesy visit by a naval Iranian naval vessel. at the invitation of the Indians and
then someone passed on the details and it was sunk off Sri Lanka by a torpedo
um an American torpedo. So I think that is going to be much much much tougher.
By the way uh the the the width of the Homus is 21 km. So we don't even need to
mine it. you can that is within sufficient range for artillery. So they
can just sit there and um you know select a vessel and fire artillery and
let it catch fire and that's I mean it's that easy.
When I heard Trump propose that, I thought of the Russian uh 1905 naval
attack on the Japanese where uh it the same kind of uh imperial disdain for the
lesser race and the entire fleet was sunk. Uh which is what I would expect if
they're foolish enough to go into the straight of Hormuz. One has to assume that the naval commanders will talk
Trump out of that folly. Uh I I want to talk about where this is going. It's
spread very quickly throughout the region. Uh obviously this will impact
the uh markets and prices of oil and gas, but just uh what are the
consequences you see of of what's happened?
Well, I would say that the consequences are are going to be felt very soon in
um particular in energy markets are already being seen because uh a huge
amount of oil and gas of global oil and gas passes through hormuse
particularly for Europe. um the gas that comes from Gata um passes through Homos
and that has stopped and um Putin has said, "Oh, and by the way, we're looking
at it, but possibly we'll decide we're not going to give Europe any any of our gas since you've been turned your back
on it anyway, so we will stop off." This will be very serious economic uh
consequences for Europe with their reserves of gas at an all-time low.
their their sort of their uh their their their their big um underground reserves
at an all all-time low. But it's already starting to um uh affect the oil price.
But also, I think it's going to affect many other things. I mean, first of all,
there is the the the change that's taking place in the in the Gulf. I mean
the Gulf used to be known and thought of as a safe place for businessmen,
for investors and others and that um you know AI holidays, airliners, tourism
etc. I think that's not completely but largely that's over that that finished.
But already you're seeing and I've seen this that particularly Asian investors
are taking all their money out of out of um uh out of Dubai uh and the UAE and
other centers in Gata and and repatriating them to Asia. I think of
course I don't know what they will take them to but I imagine it won't be the US
dollar. I think it's very unlikely they will take advantage of I either it will
be the yen or it will be in the Shanghai gold market for which there are um
subsidiary markets which are not s uh controlled by China China's capital
control systems in Hong Kong and they will probably China's introduced a
system of of warrants that you can buy warrants on physical gold not paper gold
but physical gold and hold those as a form as an alternative to US treasuries
um uh uh uh which is much more attractive anyway. So I think we're
going to see an effect on the dollar. We're going to certainly see an effect
on energy markets. Um for Europe it is going to be an incredibly dangerous
period um for um their economies. Um and the consequence of all of this is I
think that the markets which are usually usually so complacent you know um to any
geopolitical event. Oh you know I it'll be over. I mean they were being briefed by the intelligence services told
because I know that from some of the fund um managers they were being briefed
you know 5 days it'll be 5 days it'll be done in 5 days so you don't have to worry keep the markets up keep the you
know we want markets high and we'll uh you'll be fine don't don't sell so I
think uh then then we will see the the the consequences there what does it I
mean, you know, this is going to be I mean the there was a heavy military
investment in these bases in the Gulf. I mean, you know, trillions and is America
going to come back? I think probably that's doubtful. And uh and in any case
that sort of the the the the sort of security that
the Gulf had felt which now turns out to be perhaps um not the wisest um judgment
that security is gone because the bases are gone. United States is taking care
of itself. it's not really taking much care of Saudi Arabia and they are
feeling that and they are saying that you know when it comes to it they saying
you know they want all all the intercept missiles to go to Israel they're not sending any intercept missiles to us so
I think the the the the atmospherics are going to affect um the that economic
paradigm that economic situation is going to affect um the energy situation
and um in terms of the United States and I I you know I don't want to trespass
because you know 10 times more than me about this but I think it's going to have uh consequences in the midterm
elections. We can already see it's not a popular war. If it's a prolonged war it
will become less popular. Uh and Trump I think is getting quite desperate about
it. But I I think his way of dealing with it is is actually going to be
counterproductive. He I mean he you know he he keeps saying oh we've done great
things you know we've sunk the Iranian navy we've destroyed their force. We're
destroying their missiles. But the consequences of that is that no factual
details are being fed out by the Pentagon. I mean put it bluntly. mainly
lying about what's actually happening on the ground. If I'm sure they know about it, but they lie. Okay, only six
Americans have been killed in this and all the aircraft that have fallen were
all friendly fire uh incidents. I mean, I think that with a little bit of time,
the American public will realize that things were a little different from how
they've been projected and will be very angry about that. But because Trump says
it's proving to be a great victory and victory is at hand, of course, the Pentagon can't come out and say actually
no, we've been decimated in these um in these bases in it. So they have to say
no you know nothing really everything is normal no change but of course time will
you know events will reveal themselves in due course whether it's sometime in
the future but it will reveal what has really happened uh there and in Israel
and there will be political consequences I believe which will probably reshape much
of the American political landscape. I mean, we're already, I think, seeing these, you you
know more than I do, but we're seeing these in the way the Democrats are are
shifting their position on Israel and saying, you know, justly, I'm not saying
abandoning it, but saying, listen, before elections come, we have to have a
serious discussion about exactly what is the relationship between the United States and Israel. Well, these things
are quite important changes that I think are starting. They haven't developed.
They aren't clear yet. Nothing is really um sort of solidifying into something
one can say this is where it's going. I think it's far too soon for that. But
nonetheless, you have that sort of sense that under the surface there's a lot of
shifts and changes taking place in America just as they are in Europe.
So this is part of the greater Israel project. Gaza, of course, the de facto
annexation of the West Bank, a seizure of they already occupied the Golan Heights. They've pushed up almost to
Damascus, uh, southern Lebanon, thousands to really tens of thousands of Lebanese being forced to flee the south.
Uh and I'm asking whether this war in your view uh which is an Israeli driven
war without question is overreach on the part of Israel and the US and if you
feel that ultimately uh this uh threatens
Israel existentially. Um yes
going through your questions the first one um I don't think it was thought
through by all the accounts I hear um the Americans did not expect what's
happened in the Gulf even though Iran had warned it it was public. Um
thirdly I don't think they've made any contingency plans. um for an energy
crisis at all. I mean, the strategic reserve of America is near an all-time
low in terms of of of its um energy holdings, whereas China has been filling
its uh strategic reserve seriously during this period with Iranian oil. Um
I uh so I don't think so I and I don't think therefore uh either Trump or the
leadership have any idea of what's happening in this war. Um and it's
really wishful thinking and bluster that that we are seeing or or where it's
going. I think he still has and um others in Europe still have the idea
that at a certain point Trump will say victory and we'll walk away from from the war and that'll be it. It won't
because Iran is planning a long war. It's not interested in talks now
certainly after the killing of the supreme leader. It's not going to happen. they are going to pursue their
um if you like their plans, their military plans. Um and of course the war
as a consequences is spreading and widening. Um uh the question you asked
me about is it existential for Israel. Uh, I think I would uncertain. I think
that Israel will never be what it has been until this point again. It it will
be fundamentally changed. The divisions on Israel are really
profound. They're little seen by the West because they only read the English
language or, you know, look at the English language press. But it's a war
in in Israel taking place. I characterize it as a a a war between the
kingdom of Judea and the state of Israel. On the one hand, you have if you like the body the of the right, the the
Bengavier and the spot rich and the religious nationalists and settlers but
who are armed. I mean they are an army in themselves. And then on the other
hand you have the old legacy elements of Ashkanazi that is sort of European jury
um which is the military command um the judi judiciary the supreme court all of
those have been almost defeated by Netanyahu during this period and there
is extreme bitterness uh about this the consequences of this and I think it's
very hard to see it not destroying itself because of what I keep saying to
people that you cannot understand Israel through a secular if you like a secular
rationalist lens. You have to understand it through the
lens of an esqueological or even a messianic um sentiment because that is
what is uh driving the right. I remember seeing a video of Smotri some years ago
and and he was saying, "Well, we're going to get, you know, um we're taking back Gaza and we're taking back the West
Bank, etc., etc." And he said, "But you know what? What we need is really we
need a huge crisis or a big war and then we'll complete our project." In other
words, you can't say, "Oh, look, it's silly. I mean, why would Netanyahu want to, you know, to to launch this war
against Iran? Because they welcome Armageddon. Many of them on the far
right. It's not because they've got a strategic calculus about it. They believe that this is, you know, is as
foretold and this is the way it is going to be and it's going to take us to redemption.
And this is the if you like the Messiah will come. Everything will change. And
this is why I think it was so astonishing for me to hear almost the same sort of language being laid out in
the general orders that were handed out to commanders um from from um the Hex if
you like side of of the United States. not I think common view but but within a
certain sort of element fragment of society it was still powerful so I don't
think so I think it's going to be long war the Iranians are are not about to
surrender that why should they are in the driving seat it's for America to lose this war not uh Iran uh wins it by
surviving And it wins it because of if you like the uh the symbolic
position of having defeated a mythical army that was invulnerable that couldn't
ever be uh attacked or or defeated. So I think it will be a long war and the
consequences we can just glimpse a few of them but not really get map it out in a sort of
coherent structural way. Let me just close by asking about the Palestinians what this means for the
Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Does this give figures like Smootrich and others a cover to expel them?
Um uh yes that is what they that's how they are thinking. Uh but I think that
um as Israel or at least the military part of Israel
gets closer to looking at their um reserves of munitions and their
dwindling reserves of the munitions. they are thinking about you know how can
we deescalate and certainly if someone asks me what would be the demands of
Israel if there were to be which I don't see at the moment to be some sort of
understanding I would say of course the first thing would be the ending of all
sanctions and tariffs on Iran and the return of all its frozen assets and
secondly the removal of um the Israeli troops from Gaza and from the West Bank.
The Iranian demands, Iranian demands. Iran has always supported the Palestinians. I mean, not
always in the field in that way, but it has been um a key element of Iranian um
um ethical perspective of the world. the ethical principles has been the support
for Palestinians. Yeah. I just want to close having worked in Iran for many years and I believe you
did too. The caricature of Iranians including the supreme leader who was extremely literate. His favorite book, I
believe, was Victor Hugo's lay miser rob is uh part of the problem in that uh
they they have been turned into cartoon characters and we're talking about a rich deep Persian culture and tradition.
Um they're not the people they're painted as. I couldn't agree with you more. I mean,
it's a complete I mean, this is you put your finger on it. This is a catastrophe
of miscognition. They just don't understand. And what is
more, there is absolutely zero empathy. They review and treat the Iranians as
Israeli subhumans. Yeah. Great. Thanks. That was really, really brilliant. Thank you so much.
And
uh I want to thank uh Sophia, Diego, uh Thomas, uh Max, and Victor who produced
the show. You can find me at chrisedges.substack.com.
===
요약 및 평론: 이란 전쟁의 실상과 제국적 오판
1. 요약: 무너지는 서구의 군사적·지정학적 헤게모니
전직 외교관 알래스테어 크룩은 크리스 헤지스와의 대담을 통해 현재 진행 중인 이란 전쟁이 미국과 이스라엘의 심각한 오판에서 비롯되었으며, 서구의 예상과는 전혀 다른 방향으로 전개되고 있다고 진단한다.
1) 전쟁의 도발과 네타냐후의 '코셔 증명서'
이번 전쟁은 이란의 핵 위협 때문이 아니라, 이란의 정교해진 미사일 시스템을 파괴하려는 이스라엘의 전략적 필요에 의해 시작되었다.
2) 이란의 비대칭 전력과 '눈 가리기' 전략
이란은 현재 2012~2013년형의 낡은 미사일과 저가형 드론을 사용하여 이스라엘과 걸프 국가들의 고가 요격 미사일 재고를 고갈시키고 있다.
3) 분산된 지휘 체계와 장기전 준비
미국은 이란의 최고 지도자와 핵심 지휘부를 암살함으로써 정권 붕괴와 항복을 기대했으나, 이는 이란의 군사 구조를 오해한 결과다.
2. 평론: 오만이 부른 문명적 참사
1) 오인지(Miscognition)가 낳은 전략적 재앙
크룩은 이번 전쟁을 <오인지의 대참사>라고 규정한다.
2) 경제적 패러다임의 전환과 달러 패권의 위기
이번 전쟁은 단순한 중동 내 교전을 넘어 글로벌 경제 지형을 뒤흔들고 있다.
3) 종말론적 신념과 이성적 통제의 상실
이스라엘 우익의 <종말론적/메시아적 신념>이 국가 전략을 대체하고 있다는 지적은 매우 충격적이다.
4) 결론: 전설의 종말
크룩의 분석에 따르면, 이 전쟁의 승패는 이미 이란의 생존 그 자체로 판가름 나고 있다.
세진님, 대담 내용이 상당히 충격적이고 구체적인 군사 정보들을 담고 있습니다. 크룩은 특히 이 전쟁이 단순한 정권 교체가 아닌, 세계 질서의 근본적 변화를 가져올 것이라고 경고하고 있습니다.
혹시 이 대담에서 언급된 이란의 구체적인 미사일 기술이나, 걸프 지역의 경제적 변화에 대해 더 자세히 알아보고 싶으신 부분이 있으신가요?
===
===
<Alastair Crooke 인터뷰> 요약+평론
1. 전체 주제
이 대담의 중심 질문은 제목 그대로입니다. <이스라엘과 미국이 이란의 군사력을 실제로 지속적으로 약화시키거나 무너뜨릴 수 있는가?> Crooke의 대답은 대체로 분명합니다. <단기적 타격은 가능하지만, 이란의 군사적·정치적 저항 능력을 결정적으로 무너뜨리기는 어렵다>는 것입니다. 더 나아가 그는 이번 충돌이 단순한 군사 사건이 아니라, 중동 전체의 전략 질서와 세계 에너지·해상 교통·달러 체제까지 흔들 수 있는 분기점이라고 봅니다.
그의 논지는 세 갈래로 전개됩니다. 첫째, 이란의 군사체계는 서구가 상상한 것보다 훨씬 더 분산되고 복원력이 강하다. 둘째, 이스라엘과 미국은 이란의 능력을 과소평가했고, 특히 미사일·드론·해상 봉쇄 역량을 잘못 읽었다. 셋째, 이 전쟁은 오히려 미국과 이스라엘의 전략적 한계를 드러내고, 장기적으로는 역풍을 낳을 수 있다.
2. 핵심 주장 요약
<1) 이번 전쟁의 실제 목표는 핵시설보다 미사일 체계였다>
Crooke는 네타냐후가 오래전부터 핵문제보다 이란의 <미사일 시스템>을 더 우선적인 위협으로 보았다고 설명합니다. 그의 해석에 따르면, 핵협상이나 핵무기 담론은 때로는 명분이었고, 실제 전략 목표는 이란의 미사일 능력을 제거하는 데 더 가까웠습니다. 왜냐하면 이란이 깊숙이 분산 배치한 미사일 전력은 이스라엘의 군사우위와 방공 체계를 잠식할 수 있기 때문입니다.
이 점에서 Crooke는 서방 언론이 ‘핵’에 과도하게 초점을 맞추는 사이, 진짜 전장 변화는 <드론·탄도미사일·극초음속 혹은 고속 미사일·방공망·레이더>를 둘러싸고 진행되고 있다고 봅니다.
<2) 이란은 값싼 드론과 구형 수단으로 상대의 고가 방어체계를 소모시켰다>
그는 이란이 처음부터 최첨단 무기만 쏟아붓지 않았다고 봅니다. 오히려 상대의 요격미사일 재고를 줄이고 레이더를 노출·소모시키기 위해, 상대적으로 단순한 드론과 구형 수단부터 사용했다고 설명합니다. 이 전술의 목적은 적의 방공망을 시험하고, 빈틈을 확인하며, 비싼 요격 자산을 낭비하게 만드는 것입니다.
이후 보다 정밀하고 속도가 빠른 미사일이 투입되면, 이스라엘 측은 같은 비용 구조로 오래 버티기 어렵다는 것이 그의 논리입니다. 즉, 값싼 공격 수단이 비싼 방어 수단을 지치게 만드는 <비대칭 소모전>입니다.
<3) 이란의 군사체계는 중앙집중형이 아니라 분산형이다>
Crooke가 특히 강조하는 부분은 <이란 국가와 군사체계의 분산성>입니다. 그는 이란의 미사일 지휘·통제 구조가 단일한 중앙 명령부에 전적으로 의존하지 않는다고 설명합니다. 설령 최고지도자나 상층부 일부가 제거되더라도, 각 지역과 각 체계가 상당한 자율성을 가지고 계속 작동할 수 있다는 것입니다.
이 주장은 중요한 함의를 갖습니다. 미국식 ‘참수 작전’ 또는 지도부 제거 전략이 이란에는 기대만큼 먹히지 않을 수 있다는 뜻입니다. Crooke는 이란 혁명수비대와 broader state structure가 오래전부터 이런 상황을 염두에 두고 준비해 왔다고 봅니다.
<4) 호르무즈 해협과 걸프 해역은 미국이 마음대로 통제할 수 있는 공간이 아니다>
그는 이란이 단순히 육상 미사일 국가가 아니라, 해상에서 매우 큰 비대칭 능력을 가진 국가라고 주장합니다. 좁은 호르무즈 해협, 소형 고속정, 기뢰, 연안 미사일, 잠수함, 무인수단 등이 결합되면 미국의 대형 해군 자산도 안전하지 않다는 것입니다. 따라서 미국이 이란 해군을 쉽게 제거하거나 해협을 일방적으로 장악할 수 있다는 인식은 위험한 과신이라고 봅니다.
이 대목에서 Crooke는 중동 전쟁이 단지 이스라엘-이란 양자 충돌이 아니라, <에너지 수송로와 세계무역의 choke point>를 둘러싼 국제경제 문제로 비화할 수 있다고 경고합니다.
<5) 이 전쟁은 이란 내부를 붕괴시키기보다 오히려 결속시킬 수 있다>
그는 외부에서 기대하는 ‘정권 붕괴 시나리오’에 회의적입니다. 오히려 지도부 암살과 외부 공격이 이란 내부의 애국주의, 시아 상징정치, 순교 담론, 반미 정서를 더 자극해 체제를 결속시킬 수 있다고 봅니다. 즉, 외부에서는 정권교체 압박이라 생각했겠지만, 내부에서는 국가와 문명의 방어전으로 받아들여질 수 있다는 것입니다.
<6) 미국과 이스라엘은 전략적으로 과신했고, 장기전의 비용을 충분히 계산하지 못했다>
Crooke의 전체 톤은 매우 비판적입니다. 그는 트럼프 행정부와 이스라엘 지도부가 현실보다 자신들의 선전과 희망적 사고를 더 믿었다고 봅니다. 초반에는 ‘결정적 타격’과 ‘조기 승리’를 상상했지만, 실제로는 장기전·소모전·경제적 역풍의 가능성이 더 크다고 판단합니다.
3. 평론
<이 대담의 강점>
이 인터뷰의 가장 큰 장점은 <군사기술·전략·정치심리·에너지 지정학>을 하나의 흐름으로 묶어 해석한다는 점입니다. 많은 논평이 “누가 먼저 쐈는가” 혹은 “누가 더 악한가” 수준에 머무는 반면, Crooke는 전쟁의 구조를 봅니다. 특히 이란의 분산형 군사체계, 값싼 공격과 비싼 방어의 비용 비대칭, 해협 통제의 위험성을 짚는 부분은 상당히 설득력이 있습니다.
또 하나의 강점은 <서방의 인식 틀 자체를 문제 삼는다>는 점입니다. 즉, 미국과 이스라엘이 이란을 단순히 제재와 참수작전으로 붕괴시킬 수 있는 국가로 보아온 습관적 시각을 비판합니다. 세진님이 자주 관심 가지시는 <체제의 내재적 가치 구조>와 연결해서 보면, Crooke는 이란을 단지 무기 보유국이 아니라, 역사적 기억·종교적 상징·국가적 자존심이 강하게 결합된 정치사회로 파악하고 있다고 볼 수 있습니다.
<한계와 주의점>
다만 이 대담에는 분명한 한계도 있습니다. 첫째, Crooke의 분석은 대체로 <이란의 복원력>과 <서방의 오판>을 강조하는 방향으로 기울어 있습니다. 그래서 이란 체제 내부의 취약성, 경제 피로, 민심의 복합성, 소수민족 문제, 세대 갈등 등은 상대적으로 덜 조명됩니다. 즉, 미국-이스라엘의 과신을 비판하는 데는 강하지만, 이란의 장기 지속 가능성 자체를 균형 있게 검토했다고 보기는 어렵습니다.
둘째, 그는 종종 상당히 단정적인 어조로 말합니다. 예를 들어 미국과 이스라엘의 정보 실패, 이란의 실제 타격 성과, 내부 결속 효과 등은 충분히 개연성이 있지만, 인터뷰만으로는 독립 검증이 어려운 주장도 있습니다. 따라서 이것을 <전략적 해석의 한 유형>으로 읽는 것이 적절합니다.
셋째, Crooke는 윤리적 차원보다는 전략적 차원을 주로 다룹니다. 그래서 민간인 피해, 국제법 문제, 장기적 지역 파괴의 인간적 비용은 상대적으로 뒤로 밀립니다. 세진님처럼 전쟁의 구조뿐 아니라 <기억, 피해, 도덕 언어의 사용 방식>에도 민감한 관점에서는 이 부분이 아쉽게 느껴질 수 있습니다.
4. 종합 평가
전체적으로 이 대담은 <이란을 과소평가한 서방의 전략적 상상력에 대한 강한 반론>입니다. 핵심 메시지는 분명합니다. <이란은 쉽게 굴복하지 않으며, 미국과 이스라엘이 군사력만으로 문제를 해결할 수 있다고 믿는 순간 오히려 더 큰 전략적 수렁에 빠질 수 있다>는 것입니다.
제 평가는 이렇습니다. 이 인터뷰는 중동 전쟁을 이해하는 데 매우 유용한 <역발상적 전략 해설>입니다. 다만 그것을 곧바로 사실 전부로 받아들이기보다는, 친서방 군사분석과 함께 나란히 놓고 읽을 때 가장 가치가 큽니다. 다시 말해, 이것은 선전문이라기보다는 <서방 주류 담론의 사각지대를 찌르는 대항 해석>으로 읽는 것이 좋습니다.
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원하시면 다음 단계로 이어서
<1) 이 인터뷰의 주장별 사실성 점검>
또는
<2) 이란·북한·제국일본의 전시 가치체계 비교>
형태로 정리해드리겠습니다.
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