2026-03-02

Mouin Rabbani - The Inevitable War

(1) Mouin Rabbani - 1 March 2026: The Inevitable War For several... | Facebook

Mouin Rabbani

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1 March 2026: The Inevitable War
For several weeks I have been predicting that a renewed war against Iran is both inevitable and imminent. In my most recent interview with Nasim Ahmed for Palestine This Week, our weekly podcast for Middle East Monitor, recorded on 24 February, I concluded that war “is likely to happen before we speak again” on 2 March.
I have been wrong before and one thing that is certain is that I will be wrong again. I was very much hoping this would be one of those cases. Unfortunately, on this occasion I was right.
There were several reasons I felt confident in my prediction.
While US President Donald Trump is indeed the decision maker in his administration, he has no understanding of either foreign policy or the Middle East, nor any interest in acquiring it. What bandwidth he retains appears fully devoted to himself, and particularly his need to appear powerful on the world stage and glorified by his peers.
An empty head is typically filled by those in its vicinity with the best access and most influence. While the coalition the Trump campaign assembled to elect him for a second term contains a sizeable anti-interventionist constituency, neither this constituency nor its sentiments are well represented within either the administration, among the plutocrats who own the US political class, or the lobbyists who do their bidding.
Iran hawks, neoconservatives, and Israel firsters (including members of the Christian Zionist cult) are by contrast very well represented and very powerful, both within the administration and in its immediate orbit. And they don’t lack for access.
Together, the war coalition successfully persuaded Trump that a war against Iran would not only be successful but also decisive, fairly quick, relatively painless, and enhance Trump’s domestic and international stature. The leadership of the Democratic Party was effectively on board, raising concerns only about the process. In a word, the Epstein class prevailed.
Secondly, the enormous military resources the US assembled in the Middle East far exceeded what might have been required to exert diplomatic pressure on Iran. That it requires significant reinforcements to prosecute a prolonged war may well be true, but that would not prevent the initiation of a war that has been sold as short and sharp. The mobilization was also unsustainable, in the sense that it could not have been sustained indefinitely while negotiations continued.
Third, Israel did everything within its power to unleash this war, recognizing the unique opportunity, represented by Trump and his administration, to mobilize the might of the US military to crush an adversary it could not defeat alone.
I remain convinced that the GCC states, including the UAE, counselled against this war. They hoped to avoid the scenes we have witnessed today. They will not have been particularly impressed by rosy predictions of rapid and decisive victory, and genuinely fear the short as well as longer term ramifications of this war upon their national security. They lacked the means to prevail, and probably bowed to the inevitable without trying too hard to avoid complications in their relations with Washington.
Israeli officials have been briefing the media that the recent negotiations between the US and Iran were a charade from the very outset, conducted solely to lull Tehran into a false sense of security. I’m not sure I buy it. US negotiators, as well as Trump, appeared genuinely convinced they could bully the Iranians into capitulating. It is however true that Israel helped ensure that the US made preposterous demands no sovereign nation could accept.
Axios quoted a “senior Israeli official” as stating: “The goal is to create all the conditions for the downfall of the Iranian regime. We are targeting the entire Iranian leadership – political and military – past, present, and future.” That’s state collapse, not regime change. I suspect that is not a goal shared at present by Washington, but also one it will increasingly pursue on Israel’s behalf as the war expands.
Ellen Rosner
also do not overlook or under-estimate the influence in US of the evangelical proportion who WANT 3rd world war, want a nuclear world, want destruction of the world, because it fulfills their prophesy and they will all ascend to something. (?)
For example: The "end Times" goes mainstream. https://allchronology.com/2025/06/18/trump-the-rapture-and-the-real-reason-evangelicals-are-all-in-end-times-theology-goes-mainstream/
Also the conspiracy nuts (pizzagate) and the WACO people-- they have gone mainstream.
Trump, the Rapture, and the Real Reason Evangelicals Are All In: End Times Theology Goes Mainstream
ALLCHRONOLOGY.COM
Trump, the Rapture, and the Real Reason Evangelicals Are All In: End Times Theology Goes Mainstream

Trump, the Rapture, and the Real Reason Evangelicals Are All In: End Times Theology Goes Mainstream

George Goebel
Spot on, Mr. Rabbani
Vivek Monteiro
Whether or not the anti american Iranian resistance can hold out and restrict the pro american elements in Iran, will decide the outcomes. The sympathies of the people are largely with Palestine, not only in Iran, but also in the Arab countries.
Scott Harrop
big quibble, so to speak, with just one thing..... Donald Trump may be the "decision-maker," he's not the one in charge, the one in his head.... That dubious honor goes to King Bibi.
Sandra Kece
Glad I saw the MEMO show so I wasn't excessively surprised of the attacks. You read Trump very well. He does have an 'empty head', no heart, no ethics and no values. I pray for the Iranian people and that all who are responsible for these attacks get back exactly what they deserve.
Pamela Olson
But this is entirely stupid and doomed, isn't it? There's no way Benny and Donny, much less some stuffed shirt puppet, is going to be able to waltz in and govern Iran, no matter how many "senior officials" (and schoolgirls) they kill.
Nicole Mosleh
Pamela Olson Israel will be happy to have another fragmented state as neighbour that descends into a never-ending, sectarian civil war. Additional bonus: if the US empire takes enough blows and bleeds out in a war of attrition, Israel will be happy to take over the empire’s military bases in West Asia and rise to be the regional hegemon. What’s in front of our eyes looks like it’s right out of a satanic playbook. God help us all
Mehdi Meftah
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/02/28/trump-iran-decision-saudi-arabia-israel/
Push from Saudis, Israel helped move Trump to attack Iran
WASHINGTONPOST.COM
Push from Saudis, Israel helped move Trump to attack Iran

Push from Saudis, Israel helped move Trump to attack Iran

Nicole Mosleh
Mehdi Meftah not sure I buy this. The Saudis must have known that they’d be the first to take a hit on their oil fields if Iran is attacked. Also Iran-Saudi relations have improved considerably in the last years.
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Mouin Rabbani

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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Mouin Rabbani
BornJuly 10, 1964 (age 61)
Heerenveen, Netherlands
EducationTufts University (BA)
Georgetown University (MA)
OccupationsJournalist, analyst

Mouin Rabbani (Arabic: معين رباني) is a Dutch-Palestinian Middle East analyst specializing in the Arab-Israeli conflict and Palestinian affairs.[1][2]

As of 2012, Rabbani was based in Amman, Jordan[1] and was a Senior Analyst for the International Crisis Group, the Palestine Director of the Palestine American Research Center, a Project Director for the Association of Netherlands Municipalities, and a volunteer and General Editor for Al Haq.[2] Rabbani was a senior fellow at the Institute for Palestine Studies,[2][3] a co-editor of Jadaliyya,[4] and a Contributing Editor to the Middle East Report.[2]

Background

Rabbani was born in Heerenveen, Netherlands. His parents were Palestinian refugees.[5] He received his B.A. in history and international relations from Tufts University in 1986. Additionally, Mouin Rabbani received his M.A. in contemporary Arab studies from Georgetown University.[6][7][8]

Career

For a short period of time, Rabbani worked for the United Nations Office of the Special Envoy for Syria before resigning in 2014.[9] He also worked as head of the Middle East unit at the Martti Ahtisaari Peace Foundation, and as a senior Middle East analyst and special advisor on Israel-Palestine at the International Crisis Group. He also served as a researcher with Al Haq, the West Bank affiliate of the International Commission of Jurists.[10]

Rabbani serves as co-editor of Jadaliyya, where he hosts the Connections podcast and oversees the Quick Thoughts section. He is managing editor and associate editor of the Journal of Peacebuilding and Development, and a contributing editor of Middle East Report. He is also a nonresident fellow at the Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies and at Democracy for the Arab World Now.[10]

Writing

Rabbani has written for a variety of publications including Third World Quarterly,[2] Journal of Palestine Studies,[2] The Nation,[1] Foreign Policy,[11] London Review of Books,[12][13] and The Hill.[14] His opinion and analysis has been cited by international news media such as The New York Times,[15][16] The Guardian,[17] Reuters,[18] Haaretz,[19] The Washington Post,[20] and Al Jazeera.[3][21] Unlike some of his contemporaries, he has been critical of the feasibility of a one-state solution to the Israel–Palestine conflict, at least in the short term.[22]

Books

Interviews

References

  1.  "Author Bios: Mouin Rabbani". The Nation. 2 April 2010. Retrieved 2012-10-10.
  2.  "IPS Fellow: Mouin Rabbani". Institute for Palestine Studies. Retrieved 2012-10-10.
  3.  Samaha, Nour (2012-09-22). "Palestine statehood team a 'cause of concern'". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 2012-10-10.
  4.  "Bio: Mouin Rabbani". Jadaliyya. Retrieved 2012-10-14.
  5.  "Mouin Rabbani". VPRO (in Dutch). 2025-12-18. Retrieved 2026-02-18.
  6.  "PARC Who We Are:Mouin Rabbani". Palestinian American Research Center. Retrieved 2012-10-14.
  7.  "This House believes that after Gaza, Arab unity is dead and buried". The Doha Debates. Retrieved 2012-10-14.
  8.  "NIMEP INSIGHTS: Volume II, Spring 2006". Tufts University. Retrieved 2012-10-14.
  9.  Rabbani, Mouin (19 February 2015). "Mr Freeze". London Review of Books. Retrieved 2024-03-18.
  10.  "Mouin Rabbani Nonresident Senior Fellow". Middle East Council on Global Affairs. 2025-04-08. Retrieved 2026-02-18.
  11.  Rabbani, Mouin (2012-10-10). "Humpty Dumpty Was Pushed". Foreign Policy. Retrieved 2012-10-10.
  12.  Rabbani, Mouin. "Abbas's Next Move". London Review of Books. Retrieved 2012-10-10.
  13.  Khalidi, Rashid (September 30, 2011). "The Palestinians' Next Move". The National Interest. Retrieved 2012-10-10.
  14.  Rabbani, Mouin. "Palestine at the UN: An alternative strategy". The Hill. Retrieved 2012-10-10.
  15.  MacFarquhar, Neil (2012-09-18). "Palestinians Turn to U.N., Where Partition Began". The New York Times. Retrieved 2012-10-10.
  16.  Rabbani, Mouin. "Mouin Rabbani Quoted in The New York Times". Institute for Palestine Studies. Archived from the original on 2011-10-25. Retrieved 2012-10-10.
  17.  Sherwood, Harriet (2012-10-08). "Romney on foreign policy: view from Israel and the Palestinian territories". The Guardian. London. Retrieved 2012-10-11.
  18.  Entous, Adam (June 18, 2007). "After Gaza, some question who was overthrowing whom". Reuters. Archived from the original on March 6, 2016. Retrieved 2012-10-11.
  19.  "PA Finance Minister may use foreign account to ease Western embargo". Haaretz. 20 April 2007. Retrieved 2012-10-11.
  20.  Brulliard, Karin (2012-06-21). "Palestinian anti-corruption court secures conviction but raises questions of bias". Washington Post. Retrieved 2012-10-11.
  21.  Rabbani, Mouin. "Mouin Rabbani Quoted on Aljazeera". Institute of Palestine Studies. Archived from the original on 2011-09-27. Retrieved 2012-10-10.
  22.  Rabbani, Mouin (28 October 2013). "What Comes Next: Strategy before solutions". Mondoweiss. Retrieved 28 October 2013.
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