2024-05-27

John Mearsheimer: Only ISRAEL'S Victory Can End Gaza War - No Two-state ...





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that he had requested of a panel of judges on that Court their permission to file an indictment against prime
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minister um Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and uh defense minister Galant
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as well as three Hamas leaders uh alleging war crimes and that he will
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seek their arrest warrants what if any International geopolitical significance
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is there to uh going after the head of state so directly so profoundly as he is
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going after uh prime minister Netanyahu well I just think what is
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going on here is that the icc's move in the wake of the
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international Court of justices move in January just contributes to the damage
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that is being done to Israel's reputation and and this is damage that
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is going to last uh for as far as the eye can see uh enormous damage is being
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done to Israel here and at the same time I think it's fair to say that significant damage is being done to the
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United States uh because the United States is joined at the hip with Israel
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and as we back Israel at every turn in the face of evidence that shows that
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Israel is being legit legitimately charged with these crimes it does great
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damage to us of course as well as to the Israelis so this is bad news for both
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countries here's uh km Khan the very articulate Chief
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prosecutor uh explaining uh the charges against uh prime minister Netanyahu and defense
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minister Gant cut number nine on the basis of evidence collected and examined
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by my office that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister of Defense yuav
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Galant bear criminal responsibility for the following International crimes committed on the
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territory of the State of Palestine from at least the 8th of October
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2023 the crimes include starvation of civilians as a method of warfare
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willfully causing great suffering serious injury to body or health or
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cruel treatment willful killing or murder an intentionally directing attacks against
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a civilian population as well as crimes against humanity of extermination and or murder
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persecution and allegations of crimes of committing other inhumane acts um I noticed two phrases that we
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haven't heard before uh in in the criminal or judicial context um
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Professor mber one is extermination and the other is the state
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of Palestine so I I I put those two uh gems on the plate for you to
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address yeah I was actually shocked to see the word extermination because it uh
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raises immediate thoughts of the Holocaust and what the Germans uh and
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others did to the Jews during World War to but the term is not unpacked in the
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document as best I can tell so I'm not sure what he means by extermination and it's very important to understand that
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in the ICC uh documentation that came out the other day uh there's no talk of genocide
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and if you just listen to what uh Mr Khan said you did not hear the word
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genocide and of course the international court of justice hearings uh earlier
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this year uh and the report that was issued by the icj did talk about
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possible genocide but that's not at play here but there is that word extermination and of course you hear
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about crimes against humanity and so forth and so on look the charges against
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Israel are straightforward there is just a huge amount of documentation that
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supports them and in a way the finding of the ICC this recent finding of the IC
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is not surprising at all uh it's stunning to the Israelis and stunning to
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the Americans because it puts both countries up in Bright Lights uh and it
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makes it look like their complicities uh in uh this mass murder or genocide or
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whatever you want to call it uh that's taking place in Gaza so as I said before this is devastating for Israel uh and it
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is hugely damaging for the United States as well now with regard to your second
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Point what exactly was the issue there he uh referred to the crimes as
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occurring in quote the state of Palestine yeah is that an indication
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that in the view of the court or at least this prosecutorial uh office much like uh Ireland Sweden and
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Spain declared earlier today Palestine is a state well what's going on here is
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that the question of jurisdiction is at play and uh for the court to intervene
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the ICC to intervene in this case uh one of the parties has to be uh uh a
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signatory to the Rome statute and is Palestine a signatory to the Rome statute unlike the United States and
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Israel yes that that's what the court has ruled the day joined
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2015 that that's the basic finding here therefore the court has jurisdiction
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over crimes committed on their property and against their people exactly that's what's going on here and that that's why
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uh Khan uh paid so much attention to this issue if I can make one other quick
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Point uh Kum Khan is a very clever uh
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and forceful individual and you want to understand that what he did here
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was he convened a panel of six legal experts these are experts in
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international law and two academic experts to look over all of the evidence
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and help him sort through that evidence and help him reach a conclusion they all agree unanimously
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with him they wrote an oped in the financial times the six legal experts
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did saying they agree unanimously with what KH is doing and furthermore they
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issued a lengthy report that lays out in detail the basis of the icc's charges
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against the Israelis or I should say against Netanyahu and Gant uh so this
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gives uh Khan lots of support it makes it look like it's not one individual
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this prosecutor uh taking aim at the Israelis he has the support of six
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distinguished International lawyers were were you surprised the three Hamas leaders were
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also named particularly the the third one in the in
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the list of the names and I'm sorry I don't have the name in front of me you may know who it is he's a longtime
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friend of our friend and colleague aliser Crook and he is the chief
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negotiator for Hamas who fock between Doha and Cairo uh transporting the
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negotiation methods and uh and efforts which I guess he can no longer do if an arrest warrant is out for him yeah well
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uh once the arrest warrant is granted that will be true for the time being he can move around uh his name is ishal
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Hana and uh I was surprised that they uh
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included him but I think what's going on here is uh surely Khan understood that
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if he went after Israel he had to go after Hamas as well and if you're going to go after two Israeli leaders it makes
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sense to go after three palestin Palestinian leaders uh so nobody can say
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that you're favoring Hamas um over uh Israel uh and uh so that I think
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explains what's going on here if I I just want to make another point because it's very important to understand this I
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read the report uh very carefully uh and I read the this is the report of the six
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experts and I also read uh Khan's statement and he makes it unequivocally
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clear that he is conducting ongoing
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investigations and those ongoing investigations include what is going on
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in the West Bank and I think if you read the documentation carefully there's
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every reason to believe uh that this is not going to stop with Netanyahu and
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golant uh that there are going to be a number of other Israelis who are singled
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out and I believe uh it's not going to be for what's simply happening in Gaza
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but what's happening in the West Bank as well and my view is that once uh Khan
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opened this door uh once he opened Pandora's Bock there's no telling where
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this is going to stop and the reason I say that is the evidence is overwhelming that Israel has been committing serious
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war crimes that that that of course is true
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however under the rules of the Court wouldn't Benjamin Netanyahu need to be
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physically present in the court in order for them to try him in other words if he stays out of countries where the arrest
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warrant can be executed for the rest of his life he can avoid prosecution am I
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right absolutely and I would bet a lot of money he will never be prosecuted but
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that's not the key issue here whether he's prosecuted right the key the key issue as I understand it uh is the
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international effect of these prosecutions or these indictments and arrest warrants to put
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it in slightly different terms it's very important to create facts uh with the
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Palestinians and their supporters have gotten very good at over the years is
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creating facts and when facts are created by legitimate bodies like the
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icj and the ICC uh they mean a lot uh and what's
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happening here and this is a huge problem for Israel it cannot be underestimated is that the narrative is
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changing in fundamental ways and the narrative is changing in ways that make
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it almost impossible for Israel to counter again the documentation in the
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case of the international court of justice and here with the international criminal court if you just sort of look
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at the documentation it's voluminous uh and this is a huge problem for Israel
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and it all adds up to a serious indictment of that country that I believe will be a permanent stain on its
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reputation so we all know the definition of uh of
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genocide an attempt to eradicate a group based on religion ethnicity or
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nationality but the international condemnation of genocide also includes
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funding it can Joe Biden Tony blinken Jacob suin
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Lloyd Austin also be in the prosecutor's crosshairs
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oh there's no question about it uh there just no question about it they are complicitous it's obvious that they're
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complicitous not only are we giving Israel material support and economic
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support but we're uh protecting it at every turn diplomatically all you have
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to do is look at how we responded uh to the ICC ruling the other day uh by uh
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Khan I mean it's quite clear that the United States is complicities uh in what
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I would call a genocide do you think sometimes that Israel is Its Own
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Worst Enemy there's no question about that I think many Israelis understand that uh
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and furthermore I would go beyond that and say that the Israel Lobby in the United States all these staunch
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Defenders of Israel who go to Great Lanes to protect Israel no matter what it does are doing enormous harm to
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Israel uh they like to argue that it's people like me people like Steve Walt people
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like Jeff Sachs and so forth and so on who were doing real damage to Israel I
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think that's not the case at all they're the ones who are doing great damage and
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they do it by enabling Israel to behave in barbaric ways and foolish ways from a
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strategic point of view uh Israel is in a giant mess it shows no signs of
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getting out of this mess and in fact it looks like they're just digging deeper and deeper and what is
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the lobby doing the lobby is supporting them as they dig deeper and deeper uh
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this is a pro-israel approach not my view do you um go ahead you think that
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there are two israels there's sort of the modern liberal high-tech prosperous
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Israel and then there's the theocracy and the theocracy seems to be control of
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the government now or or am I or do you have a different view well I think there
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is a lot of Truth in that and I think if you look at the big fight that took
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place in Israel before and let me underline the word before before October
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7th involving the Judiciary the right isi
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Supreme Court you saw that divide that you just described at play and in fact
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many people were talking about a possible Civil War inside of Israel but
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if you talk about foreign policy and you talk about policy towards the
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Palestinians I believe that that divide that you described is not meaningful in
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any way it's kind of like the Republicans and the Democrats on foreign policy in this country uh the
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Republicans and the Democrats are Tweedle D and tweetle dum it doesn't matter whether Donald Trump gets
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reelected or Joe Biden gets reelected this is not going to be any fundamental change in American foreign policy in my
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opinion in terms of domestic policy there's a lot of difference between those two characters there's no question
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about that and I think that's what I'm saying about Israel in terms of how the Israelis think about the occupied
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territories how they think about a two-state solution how they think about dealing with the Palestinians there's
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just not a lot of daylight between let's call it the s and the right right uh you
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have recently outlined in your brilliant lecture in Australia which is uh posted uh on
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judging Freedom uh four probable scenarios for the end uh of the war in Gaza and I
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would like to address those each of those scenarios with you if I could one is it seems unlikely but I shouldn't
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comment because you're you're the expert Israel becomes a normal liberal
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democracy with equal votes and equal rights for everybody who's there we're not going to see that are we no just we
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want to make sure we're clear that we're talking about greater Israel here
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which plus Gaza plus the West Bank correct from the from the river to the
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Sea yeah as I said in that talk in Australia from the river to the sea is a
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term that Israelis use as well as pal Palestinians and basically you're talking about greater Israel and what
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Hamas wants to do is turn greater isra Israel into greater Palestine but they're talking about the same big piece
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of real estate but the Israelis would never agree uh to turn that into a
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liberal democracy where every person or every adult person got a vote because it
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would soon turn into a Palestinian State and no longer be a Jewish state so that is not happening
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the two-state solution with a free this is the second possible not probable
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possible outcome I suppose anything's possible but we're not in a court of law here uh a two-state solution with a free
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and independent Palestine well the Israelis are adamantly opposed to that is this what
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Tony blinkin wants or and Joe Biden says he wants yes but that's because they're
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delusional it's not could to happen I mean the Israelis call the tune here not
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the Americans and the Israelis have no interest in a two-state solution and furthermore after what happened on
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October 7th uh regardless of what you think about the occupation it is hard to
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imagine any Israeli leader agreeing to a two-state solution because a two-state
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solution means that you get a viable Palestinian State and that viable
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Palestinian state has the military means to defend itself of course that
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Palestinian state would want the military means to defend itself since it lives next door to Israel but from
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Israel's point of view those defensive weapons that the Palestinians had would
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look offensive in nature and given that you have organizations uh in uh the
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Palestinian world who want to take back all of the territory that Israel Now
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controls uh it is very hard to imagine a situation where you get a two-state solution in my
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lifetime or your lifetime or in my children's lifetime the uh third and
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fourth are not unlike what we see now uh an apartheid
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state with genocide well what you have now is an apartheid state let's leave the genocide
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aside Israel is an apartheid state and here we're talking about greater Israel and as I like to emphasize human rights
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watch Amnesty International and Bellum which is the largest uh Human Rights
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group inside of Israel itself all three of these human rights organizations have
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issued lengthy reports making the case that Israel is in apartheid state and I
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think if you read those reports even if you just read the executive summaries of each of the three reports that these
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human rights groups have issued you see that it is manifestly clear that this is
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an apartheid state but it is an apartheid state at
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the present time post October 7th engaged in virulent ethnic cleansing
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which has risen to the level of genocide and for which it has been condemned internationally and for which there is
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as you said at the outset of this conversation and many other conversations and in many of your
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speeches and writings more than ample evidence the case is proven Beyond Reasonable Doubt and to a moral
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certainty that Israel is engaged in genocide but this gets this gets to the
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fourth option the fourth option is ethnic cleansing and my argument is that the
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only way the Israelis can get out of a partide is to ethnically cleanse Gaza
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and the West Bank because once you cleanse the Palestinians then you can
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turn greater Israel into a liberal democracy because most of the Palestinians have been pushed out of
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Greater Israel so it solves that problem it also solves it's worth noting the
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Hamas problem Israel is not going to defeat Hamas as long as the Palestinians
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remain in Gaza but if you ethnically cleanse Gaza you solve the Hamas problem
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so ethnic cleansing solves the Gaza problem I mean the Hamas problem and it
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solves the aparte problem now what happened after October 7th is the
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Israelis saw an opportunity to cleanse Gaza and they started bombing the place
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and trying to make it uninhabitable trying to kill large numbers of Palestinians all for the
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purposes of cleansing the Palestinians from Gaza but they failed nevertheless
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they have continued to try to make that work I believe they're still trying to
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make that work this is why they're now starving the Palestinians they're trying to push them into Egypt and trying to
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push them into uh Jordan but it's not working
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ethnic cleansing is not working so you're back to the third strand which is
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apartheid and what's going to happen when the shooting finally stops is that Israel is going to remain an apartheid
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state and that means the Palestinian are going to continue to resist and we're going to have another October 7th or
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something like it down the road do you uh think that October 7th
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and the events which have followed it uh have effectively uh destroyed the
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efforts of the American State Department to bring about a rapo ma between Israel
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and Saudi Arabia it certainly looks that way the Saudis are in insting that they want a
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deal with Israel and with the United States but in order to get a deal there
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has to be serious movement and I think they mean serious movement toward a
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two-state solution and the Israelis have made it clear that as much as they'd love to have an Abraham Accord involving
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the United States Saudi Arabia and the and Israel they're not willing to make
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any concession on a two-state solution that's just not going to happen so it appears at this point in time you're not
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going to get an Abraham Accord involving uh Saudi Arabia Israel and the United States here here is the Secretary of
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State blinkin yesterday discussing this please uh tell me a little longer than a
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minute a cut number 12 Chris please tell me if you think the secretary of state
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of the United States is right on or is naive uh yes we have uh s to move
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forward in negotiating the bilateral us Saudi aspects of uh a normalization
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agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel but even if we were to conclude
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uh those agreements and I believe we actually can conclude them uh relatively quickly uh given all the work that's
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been done um they could not go forward and the overall package could not go forward absent uh other things that have
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to happen for normalization to proceed and in particular the Saudis have been very clear that would require uh common
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Gaza and it would require a credible Pathway to a Palestinian State and it may well be as you said that in this
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moment uh Israel is not uh able or willing to um proceed down that pathway
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but to the extent that the Agreements are um finalized in principle between
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the United States and Saudi Arabia uh that in effect calls the question and Israel will have to decide whether
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it wants to proceed uh and take advantage of the opportunity to achieve something that it is sought from its
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founding I don't know what he means by Israel has sought this from its founding surely Israel doesn't want the two-state
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solution has never sought it a no Israeli Prime Minister has you can respond to that also this is an odd
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phrase I never heard before might be my own ignorance common Gaza is that a
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technical phrase or is that just an adjective he threw in I I never heard the phrase before and
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I'm not sure what he meant uh okay and I think your first criticism of his of his
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is on the money but I think it's of minor importance I think that blinkin basically laid out the situation as it
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is which is that the Americans and the Saudis are ready to jump in bed with
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each other uh and we want to bring the Israelis on board and that includes the
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Saudis uh but what has to be done here is there has to be movement on a two-state solution and blinkin surely
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understands after the Israelis have beat him over the head so many times since October 7th that that is not likely to
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happen or in my rhetoric is not going to happen and he didn't appear to hold out
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much hope that it's going to happen for good reasons I'm sure do you think that when he's with Netanyahu he even raises
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the two-state solution with him oh I'm sure he raises it but
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the question is whether or not he or Biden are willing to get tough with
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Netanyahu the United States has a tremendous amount of potential leverage
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over the Israelis the idea that we can't coer them to do all sorts of things that
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we want them to do that they don't want to do is simply uh not true we we could
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course them to do lots of things we could have CED them long ago into accepting a two-state solution the
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United States is a remarkably powerful country and Israel is extremely dependent on us but we are almost
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completely unwilling to exercise that leverage and Tony blinkin uh and uh Joe Biden are
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certainly not going to get tough with the Israelis so he probably raises it in a very soft Manner and Netanyahu puts
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him in his place Professor Mir shamer why are Arab leaders not coming to the A
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of the Palestinians well I think that most Arab leaders have long had little Sympathy
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for the Palestinians and they're mainly interested in pursuing their country's own interests and for the most part that
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means cooperating with Israel quite a bit and
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allowing themselves to be pushed around by the Americans who of course support
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the Israelis Hook Line and sinker so if you're Jordan or you're Saudi Arabia and
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you depend on the United States for security and the United States tells you that we'll give you security if you're
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nice to Israel you'll be nice to Israel uh so the leaders in most of the Arab
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world are not terribly sympathetic to the Palestinians it's the populations
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that are really sympathetic well we've talked about this before I suppose it is
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probable certainly possible that the populations could become so passionate
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and so unified that they would almost terrify their leadership into doing
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something for fear of domestic uh disturbances over it yeah well I think Jordan is the best
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example here because inside Jordan you have a huge population of Palestinians and they have been protesting against
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the Jordanian government uh uh almost continuously since October 7th uh so uh
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the jordanians uh really worry about pressure from down below and I think the
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Saudis although they don't have uh anywhere near as much pressure coming up from below nevertheless do have a lot of
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pressure from below and are worried and that's why the Saudis I think can
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consummate an Abraham Accord with Israel and the United States until you get a
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Palestinian state is Israel imperialistic much as the United
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States is do you see a pattern in Israel's wish to expand and NATO's wish
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to expand and the US popping up military bases is over a thousand now all over
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the world no I don't I think the United States is a great power and you could
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say that it has Imperial Ambitions and NATO expansion is one piece of evidence
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that supports that argument but uh the United States is a class all by itself
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when it comes to expansion uh I mean we basically believe we should be running the planet and that we have the right uh
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and the responsibility to intervene in the domestic politics of every country in the world the Israelis are not in
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that category at all uh the Israelis have basically been interested in taking
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these two big pieces of territory that they conquered in 196 67 the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and incorporating
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them into a greater Israel I think if they had their DRS there's other territory that they might take uh for
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example in southern Lebanon uh and at one time there were a lot of israelies who wanted to take the East Bank of the
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Jordan which is now the country of Jordan uh or part of the country of
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Jordan but I think uh they're just at this point in time the Israelis uh
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interested in consolidating their position in Greater Israel there's a
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famous historical anecdote I don't know if it's true or not of Benjamin Franklin
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uh walking out of the notoriously secret closed door sessions that produced the
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Constitution and a journalist said to him what have you given us and he said a republic sir if you have keep if you can
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keep it I would argue we haven't kept it it's now an Empire do you agree
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Professor mimer well I think that the United States uh has always had uh a very
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ambitious foreign policy since the end of the Cold War it's got even more ambitious uh but at the same time it's
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had a liberal democracy inside of its borders and I think there was always a
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tension between those two things because I think the more more ambitious your
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foreign policy is and the more you get interested in trying to run the world the more damage you do to the liberal
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democracy at home and I think uh enormous damage has been done to our
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liberal democracy since the Cold War ended uh and I think that uh what is
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going on today with regard to Israel is doing even more damage because if you
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look at what's happening inside the United States with regard to freedom of speech because of our support to Israel
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right anybody who's really concerned about the future of our liberal democracy can't help but be sick to his
32:37
or her stomach about what's happening so I think a very powerful case can be made
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that aerial Ambitions to use your rhetoric does damage at home in ways
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that are not good for Liberal democracy before we leave uh minutes before we came on air uh this afternoon afterno
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the British prime minister Rishi sunak uh announced what the British call a snap election an election for a new
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Parliament on of all dates for the Brits to do this July 4th I guess he doesn't have an eye on
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history or maybe it doesn't resonate over there but uh that's uh only six weeks from now um do you see the
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conservatives getting their clocks cleaned that's certainly what the polls seem to indicate and given the
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performance of the conserv atives uh it's hard to believe that they won't get
33:31
their clocks cleaned but as you and I have learned over the years you know uh
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six weeks is a long time and a lot can happen but uh I would imagine that the
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conservatives will get their clocked clean they're clock clean and by the way I don't think it will matter at all in
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ter right that's what's my next question does it make a difference will will sir
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Kier Storer who's the leader of Labor and the likely prime minister is he going to free Julian Assange is he gonna
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stop dealing with Tony blinkin is he gonna stop sending arms to Ukraine I'm
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gonna guess no no and no well I don't know what he'll do with a Sange uh let's
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hope that he freeze aange but uh with regard to foreign policy I don't think he'll change at all you want to remember
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that his predecessor is the head of the labor party labor party was Jeremy
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Corbin and Jerry Jeremy Corbin got smeared mightily and pushed out of his
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position as the head of the labor party for being an anti-semite and I do not
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believe for one second that Jeremy Corbin was an anti-semite uh and I think what happened
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was that the lobby in Britain which is very powerful understood that Jeremy
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Corbin would have changed British foreign policy towards Israel had he been elected right Corbin's views Israel
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are not much different than your views or My Views but they wanted to make sure
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that didn't happen he was pushed overboard and again the lobby played the principal role in uh throwing Corbin
35:11
overboard and then in came Storer and you can rest assured that he understands
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that if he doesn't dance to the lobb's tune he'll get thrown over board as well
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so he's Chang we're we're about to post uh on judging Freedom a talk given to a
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crowd Yesterday by Julian assange's sister after the court announced uh that
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it's allowing an appeal because it rejected the tepid uh guarantees that
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the United States purported to send it by a political appointee rather than by the doj itself however that's not my
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point my point is that in the audience of that speech cheering her on was
35:55
Jeremy Corbin the the the the almost Prime Minister of Great
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Britain I'm not surprised at all uh and uh I think again if Corbin had been
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elected British policy towards Israel would have changed in a fundamental way and would have been freed oh there's no
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question about that yes uh Professor Mamer

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