GEOPOLITICS
Pakistan. Europe. Is Biden Sidelining Traditional Allies?
By Andrej Mrevlje | a day ago
The world was shocked when the Taliban seized control over Afghanistan almost immediately after the Americans retreated. And yet, it’s been inevitable, perhaps even before the Americans decided to set foot in the country that hosted Osama bin Laden, the engineer that dismantled the notion of American invincibility. Flying passenger airplanes into the Twin Towers at the heart of the finance world, into the nerve center of the most powerful army in the world, and attempting to catapult a fourth plane into the Capitol, the proud heart of American democracy, was inconceivable before that day. So when 40 passengers and crew members on Flight 93 discovered what had happened at the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, their patriotism grew in abundance and filled them with anger. They acted heroically, attacking the hijackers on their plane and took the plane down before it could hit the Capitol. It was a collective suicide that protected a building that, 20 years later, was almost burned down by a domestic mob inspired by the 45th president of the United States.
Back in the day, when terrorists attacked America, the whole nation was ready to do what the passengers of Flight 93 had done. After 9/11, Americans stood united and prepared for revenge. But by the time U.S.had given up on trying to impose democracy on the country run by the tribal system, Americans were bitterly divided. As a result, 78-year-old President Biden pulled out of Afghanistan with what was left of American soldiers and stopped the planes that were bringing tons of cash to Kabul every few weeks. But Biden did leave behind loads of arms. And, in what became an international scandal, Biden also left behind American civilians and many more Afghans who had helped Americans and are now threatened by the returning Taliban regime. We know how it ended, or better, we continue to fear the return of the Taliban’s cruel religious dictatorship and the reappearance of terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda and Isis on the fertile grounds of Afghanistan. But something else appears to be much more explosive.
After America retreated from Afghanistan and most of Central Asia, Washington focused on China’s new geopolitical situation. Creating a new set of alliances, it hopes to be able to at least compete with China, the fastest-growing superpower. By forming this new constellation, Americans are gradually dropping the ties with Pakistan, which has always had a rough potential. Pakistan also has a deep-rooted relationship with the Taliban, and at the same time, long-standing commercial and military relations with the Chinese. What unites Islamabad with Beijing is its hostile relationship with India. Pakistan is also participating in some of the Chinese superpower strategic moves. Besides an increasing commercial exchange, China is helping to build Pakistan’s infrastructure. The Gwadar port, for example, is slated to become an essential hub for the Chinese project One Belt One Road Initiative. China and Pakistan also have a partnership building military jets and vessels, and Beijing was the main sponsor of Pakistan becoming a nuclear power. The vacuum left by Americans will further improve Beijing’s relationship with Islamabad. But will it be enough to create a safe and predictable Pakistan?
Twenty years ago, on the day that symbolically marks the beginning of the end of American hegemony, a group of friends, primarily Italian diplomats, gathered for dinner in Beijing. There is a twelve-hour time difference between Beijing and New York, so by the time, we were about to finish the dinner, the young son of the family hosting the event rushed out of his room, screaming to his parents that a plane had crashed into the Twin Towers. There were no other details. At first, the guests and parents did not take the kid seriously. Children watch too many violent movies; the adults concluded and repressed the alarm. But the kid catapulted out of his room for a second time. This time he got the deserved attention. The rest of the dinner was left on the table. Nobody had the appetite to continue to enjoy the food or the conversation. We did not know the whole story yet, but the event had such a strong impact that everyone wanted to be alone to process what just happened. There was no hope of stopping what we just saw. By the time the second tower went down, I was in my office, sitting in my armchair glued to the TV. The internet in China at the time was too slow to follow the breaking news. My editors in Europe were up and running, but the Chinese were asleep, and there was no way that they would be reacting before the morning.
Soon after, I do not remember how many hours or days later it became clear that the command for the attack came from some hide-out in Afghanistan, and I started looking for the connection between Beijing and Kabul. However, due to the low-key relationship between the two capitals, it was clear that the fastest way to get to Kabul would be through Islamabad in Pakistan. So, I called the embassy to ask about visas. With a Slovenian passport, I got a pass in one day.
As soon as I got my ticket, the Pakistani authorities announced that they were getting ready to close their borders. But what made me rush to get closer to Afghanistan was the news from Islamabad showing Christiane Amanpour’s reporting. For the last decade, I had an alert chip in my brain telling me that the appearance of Christiane Amanpour always announced some trouble. During the Yugoslav crisis, I met her in many places, but things were getting worse when she became a partner of James Rubin, chief spokesman for the State Department. He was considered Secretary Madeleine Albright’s right-hand man in the Clinton administration, which made the conflict of interest evident regarding U.S. foreign policy and CNN.
In January 1998, newly elected Iranian President Mohammad Khatami called for a “dialogue of civilizations” with the United States in an interview with Amanpour. In the interview, Khatami invoked Alexis de Tocqueville’s Democracy in America to explain the similarities between American and Iranian quests for freedom. The American Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, responded positively. This brought free travel between the countries and the American embargo of Iranian carpets and pistachios. However, after seeing Christiane reporting in Islamabad about the increasing anti-American tensions, showing the footage of Pakistanis burning American flags when the Pentagon was ready to go after Al-Qaeda. I decided to catch the first plane to Islamabad.
When I landed, I went directly to the Marriott, where all the media were, including CNN. As I walked through the door, I saw a high-ranking Chinese military delegation. For me, seeing Chinese uniforms out of place was like seeing Christiane Amanpour. She was there too, mingling with other important people. With a coffee mug in her hand, she was dressed elegantly from the waist up, and below was wearing some bathrobe and flip flops. She must have been on the deadline. I inquired about the flags burning a day before in Rawalpindi. The answer I received was disgusting. They told e the Pakistanis were paid to burn the American flags, as Americans — and the world — needed to be fired up before American troops could land in the area.
Overall, Pakistan was an incredible experience. I spent quite some time at the Afghan embassy, trying to get a visa. Amanpour was there too. At one point, she got furious, screaming, slamming a door, and then leaving. I forgot why. However, the Taliban fascinated me. As I called them, they looked like Allah’s apostles, dressed in delicate garments and consistently high. I had no appetite for any drugs. The nation was already explosive and unpredictable.
Nevertheless, I managed to find some of Bhutto’s voters, who were kind of middle class and liberal. In Peshawar, I was impressed by the endless Afghan refugee camps – the place where a month later, Robert Fisk was attacked by a mob. I participated in the meeting of the local Pashtun leaders, whom I asked about border control between Afghanistan and Pakistan. They told me to come with them, that they would show me. I bailed out because the paper I was reporting for would not have had my back. I ended up looking for the mujahedin that packed in villas around Peshawar, went to see madrassas, and talked to the kids there. It was crazy. I had a hard time pulling the strings together and finding any reason for the whole country to stay together.
During the Taliban blitz last month, the Wall Street Journal published an article reporting that a former head of the ISI said the following on Pakistani television:
“When history is written, it will be stated that the ISI defeated the Soviet Union in Afghanistan with the help of America. Then there will be another sentence. The ISI, with the help of America, defeated America.” The former ISI boss said that in 2014!
As we now know, when Afghan President Ashraf Ghani spoke to U.S. President Joe Biden on July 23, he told him: “Mr. President, we are facing a full-scale invasion, composed of Taliban, full Pakistani planning and logistical support, and at least 10,000-15,000 international terrorists, predominantly Pakistanis thrown into this, so that dimension needs to be taken account of.” Accordingly, Ghani requested U.S. air support and logistical backing. But Biden subsequently withdrew this support, and as a result, the Afghan army collapsed, and Ghani fled the country.
According to one account, Pakistan pushed the Taliban terrorists from Pakistan, who then joined the Taliban cause on the other side of the border. It now seems that the primary tool of Pakistani foreign policy is terrorism commanded by ISI, Pakistan secret service. Remember the massacre in Mumbai? The killers were from Pakistan.
Pakistan and U.S. tensions started to grow in the aftermath of the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. Islamabad sagged under the pressure of George W. Bush’s administration, which was set bend on destroying the Taliban and the al-Qaeda enemy it sheltered. Pakistan had no choice but to withdraw its support for the Taliban, which quickly melted under U.S.-led military pressure.
If this had been the end of it, everything would be fine. But instead, Americans decided to stick around in Afghanistan and attempt to build a democracy. Pakistani army troops went into the autonomous tribal regions searching for terrorists to please the United States. However, every time Taliban forces had to escape from U.S. attacks, they withdrew into Pakistan. So did Osama bin Laden.
With time, America’s diplomatic priorities changed. The passing of the Soviet Union brought new, more economically progressive governments to India that welcomed ties with the West and with the United States in particular. The rise of China turned India into a Western strategic partner, perhaps even the cornerstone of a new focus on the Indo-Pacific region. A growing “Quad” alliance among the United States, India, Japan, and Australia produces closer military cooperation.
As the conservative Discourse observes:
This, of course, was a terrible development from Pakistan’s perspective. India’s influence in Afghanistan had been growing, with an ostensibly Western-supported government in Kabul. Pakistan once again found itself encircled. Viewed in this light, equipping and supporting the Taliban in its successful offensive against the Ghani regime was an act of self-defense. The new Taliban regime in Afghanistan also has affected the balance of power in the region.
Foreign policy analysts note that Pakistan has long played a dangerous game with its sponsorship of the Taliban. Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, points out that the ascendance of the Afghan Taliban could bolster the status of the Pakistani Taliban, which is the enemy of all things secular, heretical, and apostate in Pakistan, including the army. The Pakistani Taliban fight the army and stage attacks on various unbelievers, destabilizing the state. While it’s not clear how much the two branches of the Taliban cooperate, a rising Taliban tide may lift all radical Islamist boats.
That is something nobody wants to see. So this is a period of repositioning of players ready to engage in the great game in which China will replace Russia. The question is whether America can still be part of this game. On the side, European space is empty and ready to receive a new intruder. And with these new security issues, the entire world has sleepless nights ahead.
☆ Support this work via Venmo
Beijing Islamabad Kabul Washington
Yonder is a weekly newsletter from Andrej Mrevlje that connects global events in the news, delivered every week. Learn more »
Questions? am@yondernews.com
No comments:
Post a Comment