Invisible China: How the Urban-Rural Divide Threatens China’s Rise
By Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell
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As the glittering skyline in Shanghai seemingly attests, China has quickly transformed itself from a place of stark poverty into a modern, urban, technologically savvy economic powerhouse. But as Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell show in Invisible China, the truth is much more complicated and might be a serious cause for concern.
China’s growth has relied heavily on unskilled labor. Most of the workers who have fueled the country’s rise come from rural villages and have never been to high school. While this national growth strategy has been effective for three decades, the unskilled wage rate is finally rising, inducing companies inside China to automate at an unprecedented rate and triggering an exodus of companies seeking cheaper labor in other countries. Ten years ago, almost every product for sale in an American Walmart was made in China. Today, that is no longer the case. With the changing demand for labor, China seems to have no good back-up plan. For all of its investment in physical infrastructure, for decades China failed to invest enough in its people. Recent progress may come too late. Drawing on extensive surveys on the ground in China, Rozelle and Hell reveal that while China may be the second-largest economy in the world, its labor force has one of the lowest levels of education of any comparable country. Over half of China’s population—as well as a vast majority of its children—are from rural areas. Their low levels of basic education may leave many unable to find work in the formal workplace as China’s economy changes and manufacturing jobs move elsewhere.
In Invisible China, Rozelle and Hell speak not only to an urgent humanitarian concern but also a potential economic crisis that could upend economies and foreign relations around the globe. If too many are left structurally unemployable, the implications both inside and outside of China could be serious. Understanding the situation in China today is essential if we are to avoid a potential crisis of international proportions. This book is an urgent and timely call to action that should be read by economists, policymakers, the business community, and general readers alike.
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보이지 않는 중국 - 무엇이 중국의 지속적 성장을 가로막는가
스콧 로젤,내털리 헬 (지은이),박민희 (옮긴이)롤러코스터2022-04-15
원제 : Invisible China: How the Urban-Rural Divide Threatens China's Rise
책소개
중국은 과연 ‘중진국 함정’을 피할 수 있을까? 중국 전역을 누비며 40년간 중국의 교육, 경제, 농업을 기반으로 다양한 연구를 진행해온 저자들은 중국이 고소득 국가로 성장하느냐, ‘중진국 함정’에 빠지느냐의 기로에 와 있다고 진단한다. 중국이 고소득 국가로 올라서는 데 걸림돌이 되는 것은 도시-농촌의 극심한 불평등이며, 여기에는 농촌과 도시를 구분한 ‘후커우 제도’가 가장 큰 원인이 되었다고 지적한다.
후커우 제도는 도시와 농촌의 교육과 보건 등 여러 분야에 걸쳐 거대한 격차를 만들어냈고, 이는 중국의 지속적 성장을 위협할 주요한 사회문제를 양산하고 있다. 중국의 오늘을 가장 가까운 곳에서 관찰한 이 책에는, 오랫동안 직접 중국을 경험하지 않으면 나올 수 없는 생생한 취재, 중국과 세계의 관계를 이해하는 폭넓은 시야, 중국인들에 대한 애정을 바탕에 둔 예리한 비판이 담겨 있다.
목차
추천의 말
머리말
서문
1장 중진국 함정
2장 중국의 임박한 전환
3장 최악의 시나리오
4장 중국은 어떻게 여기에 이르게 되었나
5장 불안한 토대
6장 보이지 않는 장벽
7장 인생 가장 초기의 문제
결론
감사의 말
부록: REAP팀
옮긴이의 말
주석
찾아보기
책속에서
P. 22 만약 중국이 안정된 고임금 고소득 국가로 탈바꿈하고 싶다면, 더 복잡하고 끊임없이 변화하는, 획일화되지 않은 일을 해낼 수 있는 노동력이 필요할 것이다. 국내외 새로운 고용주들은 비판적으로 글을 읽고, 기초적인 수학을 할 수 있으며, 세심한 논리적 결정을 내리고, 컴퓨터를 사용하며, 영어를 할 줄 아는 노동자를 원할 것이다. _ 서문' 중에서 접기
P. 32 중국의 경작지는 작고, 평균적으로 할당된 경작지 크기는 4인 가족의 열량 섭취를 간신히 지탱할 정도밖에 안 된다. 실업자가 된 중국인 중 대다수에겐 비공식 노동력에 합류하거나 대로변에서 볶음면을 팔거나 교차로에서 자동차 창문을 닦거나 식당 웨이터로 일하는 정도의 선택지밖에 없을 것이다. _ '서문' 중에서
P. 44 중국은 대단히 성공적으로 성장해 중진국이 되었다. 하지만 이제 이전과 다른 성장 방법과 침체되거나 하락하는 방법이 있는 구역에 들어섰다. _ '중진국 함정' 중에서
P. 119 지난 몇십 년 동안 중국은 세계 다른 국가들의 성장 엔진 역할을 했다. 중국 노동자들은 산업 전반을 움직이게 했고, 중국 소비자들은 전 세계 사업을 지탱했다. 만약 중국 경제가 침체된다면, 중국은 더 이상 그 역할을 하지 못하게 될 것이다. _ '최악의 시나리오' 중에서
P. 136~137 후커우 제도 아래에서, 모든 시민은 태어나는 순간부터 농촌 또는 도시 신분을 배정받는다. 이 지위는 근본적으로 중국에서 삶의 모든 순간에 영향을 주며, 이것을 바꾸기는 대단히 어렵다. _ '중국은 어떻게 여기에 이르게 되었나' 중에서
더보기
추천글
《보이지 않는 중국》은 중국이 보여주고 싶지 않았던 농촌과 지방의 상황을 속속들이 살펴보면서, 중국이 직면하고 있지만 애써 무시하는 각종 문제를 차분하면서도 적나라하게 보여줍니다. 1980년대 이래 중국 전역을 발로 누비면서 경험과 체험을 거듭한 저자들의 역량이 아니고서는 불가능했을 것입니다. 40년의 경험에서 나온 분석과 문제 제기는 경박하지 않고, 애정이 있지만 아프게 다가옵니다. - 최준영
이 책은 중요하고, 명확하게 쓴 독창적 결과물이다. 중국에 살고 있는 수억 명의 사람들에게는 너무나 분명하지만, 국제적으로는 주목받지 못하는 중국의 일면을 보여준다. 중국 경제와 정치의 미래, 그리고 그것이 세계에 미칠 영향에 관심이 있다면, 누구나 이 책을 읽고 싶을 것이다. - 제임스 팰로 (Postcards from Tomorrow Square: reports from China 저자)
스콧 로젤보다 중국의 농촌을 잘 아는 사람은 없다. 이 훌륭하고, 독창적이며, 시사하는 바가 많은 중요한 연구에서 로젤과 내털리 헬은 중국의 잠재적인 인력 자원의 위기를 드러내 보였을 뿐 아니라, 활발한 조사 연구에 근거해 실행 가능한 해법도 제시한다. - 홍빈 리 (스탠포드대학, 중국 프로그램의 James Liang 디렉터)
올해 가장 읽을 만한, 반드시 읽어야 할 경제학 책이며 아마도 가장 중요한 책이다. 중국에 관심을 가지고 있다면 누구도 이 책을 지나칠 수 없을 것이다. - 배리 너턴 (캘리포니아주립대 샌디에이고 캠퍼스 글로벌 정책과 전략학부 교수)
저자 및 역자소개
스콧 로젤 (Scott Rozelle) (지은이)
스탠포드대학 프리먼 스포글리Freeman Spogli 국제관계연구소 선임연구원, 스탠포드경제정책연구소 연구원, 헬렌 판즈워스Helen F. Farnsworth 기금 교수다. 40년 가까이 중국의 농업, 경제, 교육을 기반으로 다양한 연구를 진행해왔으며, 중국 농촌교육행동프로그램REAP팀을 이끌고 있다.
최근작 : <보이지 않는 중국> … 총 13종 (모두보기)
내털리 헬 (Natalie Hell) (지은이)
작가이자 연구자다. REAP팀의 일원으로서 7년 이상 중국의 교육과 보건 문제를 연구해왔다.
최근작 : <보이지 않는 중국> … 총 3종 (모두보기)
박민희 (옮긴이)
대학과 대학원에서 중국과 중앙아시아 역사를 공부했다. 2007~2008년 중국 런민대학교에서 국제관계를 공부한 뒤, 2009~2013년 〈한겨레〉 베이징 특파원으로 중국 곳곳을 다니며 취재했다. 통일외교팀장, 국제부장을 거쳐 논설위원으로 국제뉴스와 외교에 대해 취재하며 쓰고 있다. 《중국 딜레마》 《중국을 인터뷰하다》(공저)를 썼고, 《중국과 이란》 《아이들아, 평화를 믿어라》 등의 책을 번역했다. 경계를 넘어 한반도와 세계의 변화를 묻고 쓰는 작업을 지속하고 있다. ‘혐중’에 반대하며, 중국과 중국인에 대한 공정한 이해와 동행을 희망한다.
접기
최근작 : <중국 딜레마>,<중국을 인터뷰하다> … 총 5종 (모두보기)
출판사 제공 책소개
과거의 성장 동력을 잃기 시작한 중국,
‘중진국 함정’을 피해 갈 수 있을까?
2015~2016년, 이 책의 저자들은 중국의 농촌에서 ‘이상 징후’를 느꼈다. 그전까지 농촌에서는 도저히 찾기 힘들었던 젊고 건강한 사람들을 이제는 흔하게 볼 수 있게 된 것이었다. 도시의 직장에서 일하던 사람들이 일자리를 잃고, 고향에 돌아와 있었다.
1980년대 이후 30여 년간 중국은 엄청난 인구와 낮은 임금으로 급속한 경제성장을 이루었다. 세계적 기업은 물론, 중국 국내 기업들의 공장이 곳곳에 들어서고 전국의 노동자들이 몰려들었다. 이들의 임금이 상승하면서 소비력이 커졌고, 건설, 서비스, 공산품에 대한 수요가 급상승했다. 이는 중국의 경제를 지속적으로 성장시키는 선순환을 창출했다.
하지만 이러한 성장의 선순환은 영원히 지속될 수 없었다. 노동자들의 임금이 오르고 세계화가 진행되면서, 기업들은 더 싼 노동력을 찾아 다른 나라로 옮겨 가거나 로봇 등의 자동화 시스템을 갖추기 시작했고, 더는 저숙련 노동자들을 찾지 않게 되었다. 이들 노동자들이 새로운 일자리를 얻지 못하고 기업의 외면을 받게 된 것은, 중국 정부가 인적 자원에 대한 투자를 소홀히 했기 때문이다.
세계은행 보고서에 따르면 1960년에 중진국이던 101개 국가 중 2008년까지 고소득 국가가 된 곳은 한국, 아일랜드, 대만 등 13개국밖에 없다. 2015년 기준, 중국 노동인구의 30% 정도만이 고등학교 이상 교육을 받았는데, 이는 한국, 대만, 아일랜드, 이스라엘이 고소득 국가로 전환되기 이전의 72%보다 한참 낮은 비율이다. 그 어느 나라도 고등학교 취학률 50% 미만에서 중진국 함정을 피하지 못했다.
거대한 교육.보건 불평등
단순히 중국 노동인구가 교육을 제대로 받지 못한 것만이 문제인 것은 아니다. 도시와 농촌의 진학률 차이를 보면, 2010년 기준 중국 도시 노동력의 44%가 고등학교 이상 교육을 받은 반면, 농촌 지역은 11%에 그쳤다. 또한 교육의 질에도 차이가 크다. 많은 농촌의 학생들이 교육의 질이 낮은 직업학교에 다니고 있으며, 실제 같은 학년을 비교한 성취율 평가에서 농촌의 초등학교 4학년 학생들은 도시 학생들보다 2개 학년 이상 뒤처진 것으로 나타났다. 3세 미만 어린이의 75%가 농촌에서 태어나 성장하는 현실에서, 중국의 미래 노동력과 경제에 큰 우려를 가질 수밖에 없는 이유다.
도시-농촌 격차는 교육에 그치지 않는다. 농촌에서 태어나는 신생아 중 절반 이상이 영양 부족 상태이고, 중국 남부의 많은 공동체 학생 중 40%의 장 속에서 회충이 발견됐다. 또한 (초4~중2) 농촌 학생의 30% 이상이 시력에 문제가 있지만, 안경을 쓰지 않는다. 농촌의 많은 학생들이 빈곤 문제에 더해 인지 능력의 부족으로 고등학교에 진학하지 못하고 있다.
이 책의 저자들은 중국 정부가 이 문제를 방치할 경우 노동자들이 시스템 밖으로 밀려날 수도 있다고 경고한다. 국가의 통제를 받지 않는 ‘비공식 분야’에서 일하는 동안 각종 복지제도의 혜택을 받지 못할 것이며, 심한 경우 범죄가 늘어날 수도 있다. 이는 중국 경제 전반적으로 세금이 줄어들고 사회안전망이 악화되는 상황으로 이어질 것이다.
중국의 실패는 누군가에게 성공일까?
저자들이 특히 강조하는 것은, 국민에게 도시 또는 농촌 신분을 배정하고 거주지 이전을 통제하는 후커우戶口(주거지 등록) 제도를 개혁하는 것이다. 도시 또는 농촌 출신이라는 꼬리표가 평생 따라다니며, 중간에 바꾸는 것이 거의 불가능한 후커우 제도 때문에 도시-농촌 격차는 더욱 커지고, 갈등도 증폭하고 있다. 그로 인해 중국에는 ‘농촌 중국 공화국’과 ‘도시 중국 공화국’ 또는 ‘보이는 중국’과 ‘보이지 않는 중국’이 동시에 존재한다고 이 책은 지적한다. 이런 후커우 문제를 개혁하는 것과 더불어, 교육, 즉 ‘사람’에 대한 투자를 대폭 확대할 것과, 나아가 보편적 기본소득을 실시하는 것까지 제안한다.
중국의 문제는 중국의 문제로만 끝나는 것이 아니라, 전 세계에 정치적, 경제적으로 매우 중요한 영향을 끼친다. 중국은 전 세계 무역의 30%와 관련돼 있고 세계 주요 기업 중 95%가 자신들의 공급망 일부를 중국에 두고 있다. 중국의 공급망이 무너지면 전 세계적으로 물가상승이 일어날 것이고, 중국 경기가 안 좋아지면 세계적 기업들은 수많은 고객을 잃게 될 것이다.
특히 중국을 최대 교역국으로 두고 있는 우리로서는 중국의 변화에 촉각을 곤두세울 수밖에 없다. 또한 〈보이지 않는 중국〉에서 집중 제기한 중국의 문제는 노동인구 감소와 노령화, 지역 불균형이라는, 우리도 지금 겪고 있는 또 다른 사회적 문제들과 맞물려 있는 것들이기에 더 관심을 두고 지켜봐야 한다. 마지막으로, 계층 이동이 점점 어려워지고 불평등이 심각해지고 있는 우리 사회를 다시 한번 돌아보는 것도 필요하다. 해결 기미가 보이지 않는 불평등은 사회 구성원 한 사람 한 사람이 희망을 잃게 만들고, 사회 각 부문의 발전을 저해할 것이기 때문이다. 접기
==
Invisible China: How the Urban-Rural Divide Threatens China's Rise Hardcover – 12 October 2020
by Scott Rozelle (Author), Natalie Hell (Author)
4.3 out of 5 stars 82 ratings
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As the glittering skyline in Shanghai seemingly attests, China has quickly transformed itself from a place of stark poverty into a modern, urban, technologically savvy economic powerhouse. But as Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell show in Invisible China, the truth is much more complicated and might be a serious cause for concern.
China’s growth has relied heavily on unskilled labor. Most of the workers who have fueled the country’s rise come from rural villages and have never been to high school. While this national growth strategy has been effective for three decades, the unskilled wage rate is finally rising, inducing companies inside China to automate at an unprecedented rate and triggering an exodus of companies seeking cheaper labor in other countries. Ten years ago, almost every product for sale in an American Walmart was made in China. Today, that is no longer the case. With the changing demand for labor, China seems to have no good back-up plan. For all of its investment in physical infrastructure, for decades China failed to invest enough in its people. Recent progress may come too late. Drawing on extensive surveys on the ground in China, Rozelle and Hell reveal that while China may be the second-largest economy in the world, its labor force has one of the lowest levels of education of any comparable country. Over half of China’s population—as well as a vast majority of its children—are from rural areas. Their low levels of basic education may leave many unable to find work in the formal workplace as China’s economy changes and manufacturing jobs move elsewhere.
In Invisible China, Rozelle and Hell speak not only to an urgent humanitarian concern but also a potential economic crisis that could upend economies and foreign relations around the globe. If too many are left structurally unemployable, the implications both inside and outside of China could be serious. Understanding the situation in China today is essential if we are to avoid a potential crisis of international proportions. This book is an urgent and timely call to action that should be read by economists, policymakers, the business community, and general readers alike.
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Review
"Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell published Invisible China in 2020 as the pandemic began. The book arrived just before a wave of new policy trends that emerged throughout 2021, and it offers important context for those trends. It serves as a useful window to readers who want to move beyond the cities of China and begin to explore the vast and complex rural interior of the country."-- "China Source"
"The biggest obstacle to China's development is that rural children--two-thirds of the total--do terribly in school, argues this stunningly researched book. Many are malnourished, lack reading glasses or suffer from energy-sapping intestinal worms. If these basic problems are not fixed, say the authors, China will struggle to reach its goal of broad prosperity."-- "Economist, Best Books of 2021"
"Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell's remarkable book represents the culmination of four decades of research carried out by Rural Education Action Plan's (REAP) teams in China's poor rural hinterlands... The book's contributions are... insightful."-- "China Quarterly"
"Rozelle and Hell have written an eloquent description and analysis of China's growing social challenge."-- "The Developing Economies"
"The book... delivers a solid analysis, and provides clear and feasible policy recommendations... a must-read both for scholars interested in Chinese studies and for policymakers."-- "Europe-Asia Studies"
"Rozelle and Hell would like to see China succeed, and remind us how important this is for the whole world. But they are concerned with the slow progress in reforming education. China has recently become more authoritarian, limiting cooperation with the education systems of other countries and even restricting the foreign books that children can read. Invisible China sounds a wake-up call."-- "The Strategist"
"Rozelle... has spent the last 30 years researching China's labor force and its rural-urban divide."-- "The Guardian"
"For a startling depiction of Chinese inequality today, Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell's Invisible China is not to be missed."--Niall Ferguson "Times Literary Supplement"
"This book... [examines] a [wide] range of problems regarding China's performance not just in education but also in health outcomes."-- "Asian-Pacific Economic Literature"
"[Invisible China] examines the impending challenge of China's rural poverty and the mechanisms that have allowed it to develop, promoting concrete actions that China can take to reduce the humanitarian risks of its urban-rural divide."-- "Journal of Economic Literature"
"The authors are in no way hostile to China or its government system. But having spent years researching in rural China they not only feel strongly for this unseen China but want the situation to change so that China continues to prosper and thus enable the wider world to prosper."-- "Asia Sentinel"
"While the world focuses on China's rich, the country is facing economic and political disaster if it doesn't invest heavily in educating its rural population, the economists Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell argue in this recent book. Both authors are part of the successful US-China Rural Education Action Program. As they note, Taiwan and South Korea escaped the middle-income trap by ensuring that large numbers of students finished high school, enabling the move to a higher-end economy. In China, by contrast, the high school attainment rate is just 30 percent."
-- "Foreign Policy"
"If rural Chinese do not learn essential cognitive skills, the authors predict mass unemployment, social unrest and perhaps a crash that would 'lead to huge economic shocks around the world.' China's rulers should order crates of de-worming pills--and copies of this book."-- "Economist"
"This book by development economist Scott Rozelle and researcher Natalie Hell highlights problems that often remain invisible in the face of China's rapid economic rise. It's the drama of the rural low-educated workers who were the motor driving China's growth since the 1980s, but are now more and more left jobless and hopeless in their home villages as low-skilled work is increasingly outsourced to other countries or is taken over by robotics. In many ways, China and the Chinese people are going forward - yet the rural population is left behind, and it's China's Achilles' heel. This book focuses on this invisible side to China's rise and on how such a big story, with such major implications, could be so little known."-- "What's on Weibo"
"An important and informative new book . . . suggests that China lacks the educated workforce to capitalize on its success and reach the next rung in the ladder of development. . . . Making invisible China more visible is a necessary first step to bring meaningful changes in rural China. This new book by Rozelle and Hell is an important contribution to this endeavor."-- "Peterson Institute for International Economics"
"Invisible China provides a stunning overview of economic, health and education policies in rural China."-- "East West Notes"
"This book is an important contribution to the study of China. China's size and linkages with other economies mean that the arguments and data presented here have wide-ranging importance. There is still time to avoid the 'doomsday' outcome if policy shifts in China, and Rozelle and Hell's work is poised to have a real impact if its message is heeded."--Pietra Rivoli, Georgetown University
--Pietra Rivoli, Georgetown University
"Invisible China is an important, clearly argued, and original work. It presents a side of China that is all too evident to hundreds of millions of people living there, but that often escapes notice internationally. Anyone interested in China's economic and political future, and its impact on the world, will want to read this book."
--James Fallows, author of Postcards from Tomorrow Square: Reports from China
"This is the most readable and compelling economics book of the year, and probably the most important. From the opening pages, a clear and compelling argument unfolds: China faces a labor quality crisis, as hundreds of millions of young rural workers lack the education and robust health they need to participate in China's emerging high tech economy. Nobody who cares about China can afford to ignore Invisible China."--Barry Naughton, School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego
"No one knows rural China better than Scott Rozelle. In this brilliant, original, thought-provoking, and important study, Rozelle and Natalie Hell not only make China's potential human capital crisis visible, but provide actionable solutions based on rigorous research."--Hongbin Li, James Liang Director of the China Program, Stanford University
"Professor Rozelle is a renowned economist specializing in early childhood education and rural development, and his book on rural China is a culmination of over twenty years of research on rural China, which has generated intense interest among policymakers and philanthropists. He convincingly argues that intervention into early childhood education is the most effective way of reducing the inequality that is a problem not only in rural China but in many parts of the world."
--James Liang, chairman and cofounder of Ctrip
About the Author
Scott Rozelle is a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and holds the Helen F. Farnsworth Endowed Professorship at Stanford University. Rozelle codirects the Rural Education Action Program (REAP) and is a faculty affiliate at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law.
Natalie Hell is a writer and researcher. As part of REAP, she has worked on Chinese education and health issues for the past seven years.
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Product details
Publisher : *University of Chicago Press; 1st edition (12 October 2020)
Language : English
Hardcover : 248 pages
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Customer reviews
4.3 out of 5 stars
Apicius
5.0 out of 5 stars Essential reading
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 28 March 2021
Verified Purchase
Lucid, convincing and backed up by thorough research this is is an important book. As the author says from the outset, he is writing as a person deeply committed to China's wellbeing. The urban-rural divide is carefully researched but characterised by good examples. The education picture is invaluable not just for China - indeed this book could be seen as an international blueprint. 186 pages of lucid and convincing narrative analysis, 45 pages of backup notes and indexing. Good standalone, but excellent if written with other detail on China. Highly recommended.
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Michael Rooke
2.0 out of 5 stars A lengthy disposition, but not wide or deep
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 8 November 2020
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Three basic propositions are made in the course of this book. 1) millions of rural citizens are being left behind in China's economic development 2) the education of rural citizens is not a priority for China's leaders 3) the prescription of multi-vitamins would transform the health and intellect of the rural population. Examples of these three propositions are made and repeated over and over in this over-long book.
It is true that the pursuance of globalism has resulted in the off-shoring of 75 million jobs, by China, to places where it's cheaper and where environmental regulations are low - places like Ethiopa, Senegal and Kenya, who now have vast economies zones and factories.
However, improving the education and health of the millions of urban poor in China so that they can aspire to be astronauts or computer whizz kids , and can join in the consumerism that is already destroying our planet, is simplistic in the extreme.
I am sorry to say that this book informs to some degree (hence 2 stars) but offers no realistic insights into the future of China.
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Vivian K Lockwood
5.0 out of 5 stars Thought provoking analysis of modern China's hidden flaws.
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 7 January 2022
Verified Purchase
For anyone who has come to believe that the economic rise of China to world pre-eminence is inevitable this book is well worth a read. The authors examine the social, cultural and political flaws within the system that could well impact as the country moves away from a low wage economy to middle income status. The process has already started and maybe the Chinese system and society is so unable to respond to the challenges that it will eventually fail to reach its promise. That would affect us all, argue the authors.
The evidence is well argued and coherent. It is not, however, exhaustive. There is little mention of how utterly corrupt the system is from top to bottom nor of the many barriers to employment and promotion which exist for Chinese workers unless they have 'connections', especially within the ruling communist party.
It's a good read and well worth examination.
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Celine Wong
5.0 out of 5 stars Thoughtful book
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 23 December 2020
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Very thoughtful book. Many issues have been exposed and problems solving plan has been listed. However, if the book does not dare to say that the most fundamental issue is the autocratic regime, which means very little and shallow.
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wayne==
BOOK REVIEW: Invisible China: How the Urban-Rural Divide Threatens China’s Rise
By Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell. The University of Chicago Press. Hardcover, 248 pp, US$23.93
Philip Bowring
Jan 31, 2021
2
One of the many contradictions of modern Chinese history is the way a revolution fought primarily by and on behalf of its peasants became a government which has always, even during Mao’s time, in practice always favored the cities over the countryside. China has even carried the urban bias to an extreme seen in few other countries, or even the Soviet Union under Stalin.
The more China has developed in the past 40 years, the greater the gap between urban and rural has become. The liberalization of the economy may have started at the rural level with Zhao Ziyang’s policies in Sichuan, but the benefits were mostly seen in the trade opening and industrialization launched by Deng Xiaoping. That the villages lagged behind was not only not surprising given the pace of change – it didn’t even seem to matter too much. Tens of millions of mostly young rural people flocked to drive the new economy, operating factories and building roads and railways, and earning enough to send back to the village to raise living standards there.
China’s quite extraordinary success in rapid urbanization was achieved mainly by the sweat of a workforce which had few skills but was eager to earn, and an urban educated class quick to learn from foreign example. The results are plain for the world to see in China’s vast new cities, high-speed trains and leading role in IT and AI.
Urban Chinese and foreigners have, this book argues, forgotten about the rural left-behind. There has been a comfortable assumption that urbanization would continue, albeit at a lesser pace, and rural productivity rise and reduce income gaps. But there has always been one particularly gigantic flaw in the system, only partly ameliorated by sporadic attempts at reform: the hukou system which has created a two-class society. Thus although by most measures China is now at least 50 percent urbanized, measured by all-important hukou status only 36 percent is urban. Under the system, China’s vast army of newly urbanized workers must continue to be registered in their own home villages and provinces.
This is more than a statistic. It is fundamental, the book argues, to creating an educational deficit which if left unaddressed, will make it very difficult for China to move from middle- to higher-income status. In 2010, 44 percent of the total urban labor force did so but only 11 percent of rural ones. In other words, it will remain in the same middle-income trap as the likes of Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, and Thailand.
Now 93 percent of urban youth reach high school but rural ones lag very far behind. This might not matter so much if the rural cohort were smaller and dwindling. But, contrary to normal suppositions, the opposite has in fact been the case. Urban migrants without hukou are often forced to leave their children at home because of a lack of access to urban schools. Add in the fact that rural birth rates are higher anyway and the net result is that 70 percent of children today have rural hukou status.
The authors are in a way no hostile to China or its government system. But having spent years researching in rural China they not only feel strongly for this unseen China but want the situation to change so that China continues to prosper and thus enable the wider world to prosper. They note that long before Korea and Taiwan reached a high-income status, they were sowing the seeds of it through focus on achieving high levels of secondary and post-secondary education. China can boast top results by any international standards if the yardstick is some big city schools. But as of 2015 the share of the labor force with at least a high school education was only 30 percent, less than the likes of Brazil or the middle-income average of 36 percent.
Other things may be improving faster in China but human capital takes long to accumulate. China’s rural bias of an already low birth rate makes urgent action on rural education (and health) all the more important if China as a whole is to become rich.
Completed in early 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic was closing factories, one aspect of the book seems overly pessimistic – a massive loss of low-skill jobs to other countries or to automation. But even though China’s own workforce size is now at best static, official stimulus measures still focus heavily on infrastructure projects which mostly employ low skilled labor.
President Xi Jinping is evidently well aware of the education and other rural problems, including an income gap which would cause insurgency in many countries. But given the structure of the system, and the preference for party control, outsiders may reasonably assume that it will be very difficult even for someone as powerful as Xi to drive the change in national priorities that may be required. Those are, one must assume, not merely institutional but also the financial cost of space programs, aircraft carriers and Belt and Road billions at a time when the median age of the population is about the surpass that in the US.
책소개
중국은 과연 ‘중진국 함정’을 피할 수 있을까? 중국 전역을 누비며 40년간 중국의 교육, 경제, 농업을 기반으로 다양한 연구를 진행해온 저자들은 중국이 고소득 국가로 성장하느냐, ‘중진국 함정’에 빠지느냐의 기로에 와 있다고 진단한다. 중국이 고소득 국가로 올라서는 데 걸림돌이 되는 것은 도시-농촌의 극심한 불평등이며, 여기에는 농촌과 도시를 구분한 ‘후커우 제도’가 가장 큰 원인이 되었다고 지적한다.
후커우 제도는 도시와 농촌의 교육과 보건 등 여러 분야에 걸쳐 거대한 격차를 만들어냈고, 이는 중국의 지속적 성장을 위협할 주요한 사회문제를 양산하고 있다. 중국의 오늘을 가장 가까운 곳에서 관찰한 이 책에는, 오랫동안 직접 중국을 경험하지 않으면 나올 수 없는 생생한 취재, 중국과 세계의 관계를 이해하는 폭넓은 시야, 중국인들에 대한 애정을 바탕에 둔 예리한 비판이 담겨 있다.
목차
추천의 말
머리말
서문
1장 중진국 함정
2장 중국의 임박한 전환
3장 최악의 시나리오
4장 중국은 어떻게 여기에 이르게 되었나
5장 불안한 토대
6장 보이지 않는 장벽
7장 인생 가장 초기의 문제
결론
감사의 말
부록: REAP팀
옮긴이의 말
주석
찾아보기
책속에서
P. 22 만약 중국이 안정된 고임금 고소득 국가로 탈바꿈하고 싶다면, 더 복잡하고 끊임없이 변화하는, 획일화되지 않은 일을 해낼 수 있는 노동력이 필요할 것이다. 국내외 새로운 고용주들은 비판적으로 글을 읽고, 기초적인 수학을 할 수 있으며, 세심한 논리적 결정을 내리고, 컴퓨터를 사용하며, 영어를 할 줄 아는 노동자를 원할 것이다. _ 서문' 중에서 접기
P. 32 중국의 경작지는 작고, 평균적으로 할당된 경작지 크기는 4인 가족의 열량 섭취를 간신히 지탱할 정도밖에 안 된다. 실업자가 된 중국인 중 대다수에겐 비공식 노동력에 합류하거나 대로변에서 볶음면을 팔거나 교차로에서 자동차 창문을 닦거나 식당 웨이터로 일하는 정도의 선택지밖에 없을 것이다. _ '서문' 중에서
P. 44 중국은 대단히 성공적으로 성장해 중진국이 되었다. 하지만 이제 이전과 다른 성장 방법과 침체되거나 하락하는 방법이 있는 구역에 들어섰다. _ '중진국 함정' 중에서
P. 119 지난 몇십 년 동안 중국은 세계 다른 국가들의 성장 엔진 역할을 했다. 중국 노동자들은 산업 전반을 움직이게 했고, 중국 소비자들은 전 세계 사업을 지탱했다. 만약 중국 경제가 침체된다면, 중국은 더 이상 그 역할을 하지 못하게 될 것이다. _ '최악의 시나리오' 중에서
P. 136~137 후커우 제도 아래에서, 모든 시민은 태어나는 순간부터 농촌 또는 도시 신분을 배정받는다. 이 지위는 근본적으로 중국에서 삶의 모든 순간에 영향을 주며, 이것을 바꾸기는 대단히 어렵다. _ '중국은 어떻게 여기에 이르게 되었나' 중에서
더보기
추천글
《보이지 않는 중국》은 중국이 보여주고 싶지 않았던 농촌과 지방의 상황을 속속들이 살펴보면서, 중국이 직면하고 있지만 애써 무시하는 각종 문제를 차분하면서도 적나라하게 보여줍니다. 1980년대 이래 중국 전역을 발로 누비면서 경험과 체험을 거듭한 저자들의 역량이 아니고서는 불가능했을 것입니다. 40년의 경험에서 나온 분석과 문제 제기는 경박하지 않고, 애정이 있지만 아프게 다가옵니다. - 최준영
이 책은 중요하고, 명확하게 쓴 독창적 결과물이다. 중국에 살고 있는 수억 명의 사람들에게는 너무나 분명하지만, 국제적으로는 주목받지 못하는 중국의 일면을 보여준다. 중국 경제와 정치의 미래, 그리고 그것이 세계에 미칠 영향에 관심이 있다면, 누구나 이 책을 읽고 싶을 것이다. - 제임스 팰로 (Postcards from Tomorrow Square: reports from China 저자)
스콧 로젤보다 중국의 농촌을 잘 아는 사람은 없다. 이 훌륭하고, 독창적이며, 시사하는 바가 많은 중요한 연구에서 로젤과 내털리 헬은 중국의 잠재적인 인력 자원의 위기를 드러내 보였을 뿐 아니라, 활발한 조사 연구에 근거해 실행 가능한 해법도 제시한다. - 홍빈 리 (스탠포드대학, 중국 프로그램의 James Liang 디렉터)
올해 가장 읽을 만한, 반드시 읽어야 할 경제학 책이며 아마도 가장 중요한 책이다. 중국에 관심을 가지고 있다면 누구도 이 책을 지나칠 수 없을 것이다. - 배리 너턴 (캘리포니아주립대 샌디에이고 캠퍼스 글로벌 정책과 전략학부 교수)
저자 및 역자소개
스콧 로젤 (Scott Rozelle) (지은이)
스탠포드대학 프리먼 스포글리Freeman Spogli 국제관계연구소 선임연구원, 스탠포드경제정책연구소 연구원, 헬렌 판즈워스Helen F. Farnsworth 기금 교수다. 40년 가까이 중국의 농업, 경제, 교육을 기반으로 다양한 연구를 진행해왔으며, 중국 농촌교육행동프로그램REAP팀을 이끌고 있다.
최근작 : <보이지 않는 중국> … 총 13종 (모두보기)
내털리 헬 (Natalie Hell) (지은이)
작가이자 연구자다. REAP팀의 일원으로서 7년 이상 중국의 교육과 보건 문제를 연구해왔다.
최근작 : <보이지 않는 중국> … 총 3종 (모두보기)
박민희 (옮긴이)
대학과 대학원에서 중국과 중앙아시아 역사를 공부했다. 2007~2008년 중국 런민대학교에서 국제관계를 공부한 뒤, 2009~2013년 〈한겨레〉 베이징 특파원으로 중국 곳곳을 다니며 취재했다. 통일외교팀장, 국제부장을 거쳐 논설위원으로 국제뉴스와 외교에 대해 취재하며 쓰고 있다. 《중국 딜레마》 《중국을 인터뷰하다》(공저)를 썼고, 《중국과 이란》 《아이들아, 평화를 믿어라》 등의 책을 번역했다. 경계를 넘어 한반도와 세계의 변화를 묻고 쓰는 작업을 지속하고 있다. ‘혐중’에 반대하며, 중국과 중국인에 대한 공정한 이해와 동행을 희망한다.
접기
최근작 : <중국 딜레마>,<중국을 인터뷰하다> … 총 5종 (모두보기)
출판사 제공 책소개
과거의 성장 동력을 잃기 시작한 중국,
‘중진국 함정’을 피해 갈 수 있을까?
2015~2016년, 이 책의 저자들은 중국의 농촌에서 ‘이상 징후’를 느꼈다. 그전까지 농촌에서는 도저히 찾기 힘들었던 젊고 건강한 사람들을 이제는 흔하게 볼 수 있게 된 것이었다. 도시의 직장에서 일하던 사람들이 일자리를 잃고, 고향에 돌아와 있었다.
1980년대 이후 30여 년간 중국은 엄청난 인구와 낮은 임금으로 급속한 경제성장을 이루었다. 세계적 기업은 물론, 중국 국내 기업들의 공장이 곳곳에 들어서고 전국의 노동자들이 몰려들었다. 이들의 임금이 상승하면서 소비력이 커졌고, 건설, 서비스, 공산품에 대한 수요가 급상승했다. 이는 중국의 경제를 지속적으로 성장시키는 선순환을 창출했다.
하지만 이러한 성장의 선순환은 영원히 지속될 수 없었다. 노동자들의 임금이 오르고 세계화가 진행되면서, 기업들은 더 싼 노동력을 찾아 다른 나라로 옮겨 가거나 로봇 등의 자동화 시스템을 갖추기 시작했고, 더는 저숙련 노동자들을 찾지 않게 되었다. 이들 노동자들이 새로운 일자리를 얻지 못하고 기업의 외면을 받게 된 것은, 중국 정부가 인적 자원에 대한 투자를 소홀히 했기 때문이다.
세계은행 보고서에 따르면 1960년에 중진국이던 101개 국가 중 2008년까지 고소득 국가가 된 곳은 한국, 아일랜드, 대만 등 13개국밖에 없다. 2015년 기준, 중국 노동인구의 30% 정도만이 고등학교 이상 교육을 받았는데, 이는 한국, 대만, 아일랜드, 이스라엘이 고소득 국가로 전환되기 이전의 72%보다 한참 낮은 비율이다. 그 어느 나라도 고등학교 취학률 50% 미만에서 중진국 함정을 피하지 못했다.
거대한 교육.보건 불평등
단순히 중국 노동인구가 교육을 제대로 받지 못한 것만이 문제인 것은 아니다. 도시와 농촌의 진학률 차이를 보면, 2010년 기준 중국 도시 노동력의 44%가 고등학교 이상 교육을 받은 반면, 농촌 지역은 11%에 그쳤다. 또한 교육의 질에도 차이가 크다. 많은 농촌의 학생들이 교육의 질이 낮은 직업학교에 다니고 있으며, 실제 같은 학년을 비교한 성취율 평가에서 농촌의 초등학교 4학년 학생들은 도시 학생들보다 2개 학년 이상 뒤처진 것으로 나타났다. 3세 미만 어린이의 75%가 농촌에서 태어나 성장하는 현실에서, 중국의 미래 노동력과 경제에 큰 우려를 가질 수밖에 없는 이유다.
도시-농촌 격차는 교육에 그치지 않는다. 농촌에서 태어나는 신생아 중 절반 이상이 영양 부족 상태이고, 중국 남부의 많은 공동체 학생 중 40%의 장 속에서 회충이 발견됐다. 또한 (초4~중2) 농촌 학생의 30% 이상이 시력에 문제가 있지만, 안경을 쓰지 않는다. 농촌의 많은 학생들이 빈곤 문제에 더해 인지 능력의 부족으로 고등학교에 진학하지 못하고 있다.
이 책의 저자들은 중국 정부가 이 문제를 방치할 경우 노동자들이 시스템 밖으로 밀려날 수도 있다고 경고한다. 국가의 통제를 받지 않는 ‘비공식 분야’에서 일하는 동안 각종 복지제도의 혜택을 받지 못할 것이며, 심한 경우 범죄가 늘어날 수도 있다. 이는 중국 경제 전반적으로 세금이 줄어들고 사회안전망이 악화되는 상황으로 이어질 것이다.
중국의 실패는 누군가에게 성공일까?
저자들이 특히 강조하는 것은, 국민에게 도시 또는 농촌 신분을 배정하고 거주지 이전을 통제하는 후커우戶口(주거지 등록) 제도를 개혁하는 것이다. 도시 또는 농촌 출신이라는 꼬리표가 평생 따라다니며, 중간에 바꾸는 것이 거의 불가능한 후커우 제도 때문에 도시-농촌 격차는 더욱 커지고, 갈등도 증폭하고 있다. 그로 인해 중국에는 ‘농촌 중국 공화국’과 ‘도시 중국 공화국’ 또는 ‘보이는 중국’과 ‘보이지 않는 중국’이 동시에 존재한다고 이 책은 지적한다. 이런 후커우 문제를 개혁하는 것과 더불어, 교육, 즉 ‘사람’에 대한 투자를 대폭 확대할 것과, 나아가 보편적 기본소득을 실시하는 것까지 제안한다.
중국의 문제는 중국의 문제로만 끝나는 것이 아니라, 전 세계에 정치적, 경제적으로 매우 중요한 영향을 끼친다. 중국은 전 세계 무역의 30%와 관련돼 있고 세계 주요 기업 중 95%가 자신들의 공급망 일부를 중국에 두고 있다. 중국의 공급망이 무너지면 전 세계적으로 물가상승이 일어날 것이고, 중국 경기가 안 좋아지면 세계적 기업들은 수많은 고객을 잃게 될 것이다.
특히 중국을 최대 교역국으로 두고 있는 우리로서는 중국의 변화에 촉각을 곤두세울 수밖에 없다. 또한 〈보이지 않는 중국〉에서 집중 제기한 중국의 문제는 노동인구 감소와 노령화, 지역 불균형이라는, 우리도 지금 겪고 있는 또 다른 사회적 문제들과 맞물려 있는 것들이기에 더 관심을 두고 지켜봐야 한다. 마지막으로, 계층 이동이 점점 어려워지고 불평등이 심각해지고 있는 우리 사회를 다시 한번 돌아보는 것도 필요하다. 해결 기미가 보이지 않는 불평등은 사회 구성원 한 사람 한 사람이 희망을 잃게 만들고, 사회 각 부문의 발전을 저해할 것이기 때문이다. 접기
==
Invisible China: How the Urban-Rural Divide Threatens China's Rise Hardcover – 12 October 2020
by Scott Rozelle (Author), Natalie Hell (Author)
4.3 out of 5 stars 82 ratings
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As the glittering skyline in Shanghai seemingly attests, China has quickly transformed itself from a place of stark poverty into a modern, urban, technologically savvy economic powerhouse. But as Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell show in Invisible China, the truth is much more complicated and might be a serious cause for concern.
China’s growth has relied heavily on unskilled labor. Most of the workers who have fueled the country’s rise come from rural villages and have never been to high school. While this national growth strategy has been effective for three decades, the unskilled wage rate is finally rising, inducing companies inside China to automate at an unprecedented rate and triggering an exodus of companies seeking cheaper labor in other countries. Ten years ago, almost every product for sale in an American Walmart was made in China. Today, that is no longer the case. With the changing demand for labor, China seems to have no good back-up plan. For all of its investment in physical infrastructure, for decades China failed to invest enough in its people. Recent progress may come too late. Drawing on extensive surveys on the ground in China, Rozelle and Hell reveal that while China may be the second-largest economy in the world, its labor force has one of the lowest levels of education of any comparable country. Over half of China’s population—as well as a vast majority of its children—are from rural areas. Their low levels of basic education may leave many unable to find work in the formal workplace as China’s economy changes and manufacturing jobs move elsewhere.
In Invisible China, Rozelle and Hell speak not only to an urgent humanitarian concern but also a potential economic crisis that could upend economies and foreign relations around the globe. If too many are left structurally unemployable, the implications both inside and outside of China could be serious. Understanding the situation in China today is essential if we are to avoid a potential crisis of international proportions. This book is an urgent and timely call to action that should be read by economists, policymakers, the business community, and general readers alike.
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Review
"Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell published Invisible China in 2020 as the pandemic began. The book arrived just before a wave of new policy trends that emerged throughout 2021, and it offers important context for those trends. It serves as a useful window to readers who want to move beyond the cities of China and begin to explore the vast and complex rural interior of the country."-- "China Source"
"The biggest obstacle to China's development is that rural children--two-thirds of the total--do terribly in school, argues this stunningly researched book. Many are malnourished, lack reading glasses or suffer from energy-sapping intestinal worms. If these basic problems are not fixed, say the authors, China will struggle to reach its goal of broad prosperity."-- "Economist, Best Books of 2021"
"Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell's remarkable book represents the culmination of four decades of research carried out by Rural Education Action Plan's (REAP) teams in China's poor rural hinterlands... The book's contributions are... insightful."-- "China Quarterly"
"Rozelle and Hell have written an eloquent description and analysis of China's growing social challenge."-- "The Developing Economies"
"The book... delivers a solid analysis, and provides clear and feasible policy recommendations... a must-read both for scholars interested in Chinese studies and for policymakers."-- "Europe-Asia Studies"
"Rozelle and Hell would like to see China succeed, and remind us how important this is for the whole world. But they are concerned with the slow progress in reforming education. China has recently become more authoritarian, limiting cooperation with the education systems of other countries and even restricting the foreign books that children can read. Invisible China sounds a wake-up call."-- "The Strategist"
"Rozelle... has spent the last 30 years researching China's labor force and its rural-urban divide."-- "The Guardian"
"For a startling depiction of Chinese inequality today, Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell's Invisible China is not to be missed."--Niall Ferguson "Times Literary Supplement"
"This book... [examines] a [wide] range of problems regarding China's performance not just in education but also in health outcomes."-- "Asian-Pacific Economic Literature"
"[Invisible China] examines the impending challenge of China's rural poverty and the mechanisms that have allowed it to develop, promoting concrete actions that China can take to reduce the humanitarian risks of its urban-rural divide."-- "Journal of Economic Literature"
"The authors are in no way hostile to China or its government system. But having spent years researching in rural China they not only feel strongly for this unseen China but want the situation to change so that China continues to prosper and thus enable the wider world to prosper."-- "Asia Sentinel"
"While the world focuses on China's rich, the country is facing economic and political disaster if it doesn't invest heavily in educating its rural population, the economists Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell argue in this recent book. Both authors are part of the successful US-China Rural Education Action Program. As they note, Taiwan and South Korea escaped the middle-income trap by ensuring that large numbers of students finished high school, enabling the move to a higher-end economy. In China, by contrast, the high school attainment rate is just 30 percent."
-- "Foreign Policy"
"If rural Chinese do not learn essential cognitive skills, the authors predict mass unemployment, social unrest and perhaps a crash that would 'lead to huge economic shocks around the world.' China's rulers should order crates of de-worming pills--and copies of this book."-- "Economist"
"This book by development economist Scott Rozelle and researcher Natalie Hell highlights problems that often remain invisible in the face of China's rapid economic rise. It's the drama of the rural low-educated workers who were the motor driving China's growth since the 1980s, but are now more and more left jobless and hopeless in their home villages as low-skilled work is increasingly outsourced to other countries or is taken over by robotics. In many ways, China and the Chinese people are going forward - yet the rural population is left behind, and it's China's Achilles' heel. This book focuses on this invisible side to China's rise and on how such a big story, with such major implications, could be so little known."-- "What's on Weibo"
"An important and informative new book . . . suggests that China lacks the educated workforce to capitalize on its success and reach the next rung in the ladder of development. . . . Making invisible China more visible is a necessary first step to bring meaningful changes in rural China. This new book by Rozelle and Hell is an important contribution to this endeavor."-- "Peterson Institute for International Economics"
"Invisible China provides a stunning overview of economic, health and education policies in rural China."-- "East West Notes"
"This book is an important contribution to the study of China. China's size and linkages with other economies mean that the arguments and data presented here have wide-ranging importance. There is still time to avoid the 'doomsday' outcome if policy shifts in China, and Rozelle and Hell's work is poised to have a real impact if its message is heeded."--Pietra Rivoli, Georgetown University
--Pietra Rivoli, Georgetown University
"Invisible China is an important, clearly argued, and original work. It presents a side of China that is all too evident to hundreds of millions of people living there, but that often escapes notice internationally. Anyone interested in China's economic and political future, and its impact on the world, will want to read this book."
--James Fallows, author of Postcards from Tomorrow Square: Reports from China
"This is the most readable and compelling economics book of the year, and probably the most important. From the opening pages, a clear and compelling argument unfolds: China faces a labor quality crisis, as hundreds of millions of young rural workers lack the education and robust health they need to participate in China's emerging high tech economy. Nobody who cares about China can afford to ignore Invisible China."--Barry Naughton, School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego
"No one knows rural China better than Scott Rozelle. In this brilliant, original, thought-provoking, and important study, Rozelle and Natalie Hell not only make China's potential human capital crisis visible, but provide actionable solutions based on rigorous research."--Hongbin Li, James Liang Director of the China Program, Stanford University
"Professor Rozelle is a renowned economist specializing in early childhood education and rural development, and his book on rural China is a culmination of over twenty years of research on rural China, which has generated intense interest among policymakers and philanthropists. He convincingly argues that intervention into early childhood education is the most effective way of reducing the inequality that is a problem not only in rural China but in many parts of the world."
--James Liang, chairman and cofounder of Ctrip
About the Author
Scott Rozelle is a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and holds the Helen F. Farnsworth Endowed Professorship at Stanford University. Rozelle codirects the Rural Education Action Program (REAP) and is a faculty affiliate at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law.
Natalie Hell is a writer and researcher. As part of REAP, she has worked on Chinese education and health issues for the past seven years.
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Product details
Publisher : *University of Chicago Press; 1st edition (12 October 2020)
Language : English
Hardcover : 248 pages
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Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 28 March 2021
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Lucid, convincing and backed up by thorough research this is is an important book. As the author says from the outset, he is writing as a person deeply committed to China's wellbeing. The urban-rural divide is carefully researched but characterised by good examples. The education picture is invaluable not just for China - indeed this book could be seen as an international blueprint. 186 pages of lucid and convincing narrative analysis, 45 pages of backup notes and indexing. Good standalone, but excellent if written with other detail on China. Highly recommended.
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Michael Rooke
2.0 out of 5 stars A lengthy disposition, but not wide or deep
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 8 November 2020
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Three basic propositions are made in the course of this book. 1) millions of rural citizens are being left behind in China's economic development 2) the education of rural citizens is not a priority for China's leaders 3) the prescription of multi-vitamins would transform the health and intellect of the rural population. Examples of these three propositions are made and repeated over and over in this over-long book.
It is true that the pursuance of globalism has resulted in the off-shoring of 75 million jobs, by China, to places where it's cheaper and where environmental regulations are low - places like Ethiopa, Senegal and Kenya, who now have vast economies zones and factories.
However, improving the education and health of the millions of urban poor in China so that they can aspire to be astronauts or computer whizz kids , and can join in the consumerism that is already destroying our planet, is simplistic in the extreme.
I am sorry to say that this book informs to some degree (hence 2 stars) but offers no realistic insights into the future of China.
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Vivian K Lockwood
5.0 out of 5 stars Thought provoking analysis of modern China's hidden flaws.
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 7 January 2022
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For anyone who has come to believe that the economic rise of China to world pre-eminence is inevitable this book is well worth a read. The authors examine the social, cultural and political flaws within the system that could well impact as the country moves away from a low wage economy to middle income status. The process has already started and maybe the Chinese system and society is so unable to respond to the challenges that it will eventually fail to reach its promise. That would affect us all, argue the authors.
The evidence is well argued and coherent. It is not, however, exhaustive. There is little mention of how utterly corrupt the system is from top to bottom nor of the many barriers to employment and promotion which exist for Chinese workers unless they have 'connections', especially within the ruling communist party.
It's a good read and well worth examination.
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Celine Wong
5.0 out of 5 stars Thoughtful book
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 23 December 2020
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Very thoughtful book. Many issues have been exposed and problems solving plan has been listed. However, if the book does not dare to say that the most fundamental issue is the autocratic regime, which means very little and shallow.
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wayne==
BOOK REVIEW: Invisible China: How the Urban-Rural Divide Threatens China’s Rise
By Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell. The University of Chicago Press. Hardcover, 248 pp, US$23.93
Philip Bowring
Jan 31, 2021
2
One of the many contradictions of modern Chinese history is the way a revolution fought primarily by and on behalf of its peasants became a government which has always, even during Mao’s time, in practice always favored the cities over the countryside. China has even carried the urban bias to an extreme seen in few other countries, or even the Soviet Union under Stalin.
The more China has developed in the past 40 years, the greater the gap between urban and rural has become. The liberalization of the economy may have started at the rural level with Zhao Ziyang’s policies in Sichuan, but the benefits were mostly seen in the trade opening and industrialization launched by Deng Xiaoping. That the villages lagged behind was not only not surprising given the pace of change – it didn’t even seem to matter too much. Tens of millions of mostly young rural people flocked to drive the new economy, operating factories and building roads and railways, and earning enough to send back to the village to raise living standards there.
China’s quite extraordinary success in rapid urbanization was achieved mainly by the sweat of a workforce which had few skills but was eager to earn, and an urban educated class quick to learn from foreign example. The results are plain for the world to see in China’s vast new cities, high-speed trains and leading role in IT and AI.
Urban Chinese and foreigners have, this book argues, forgotten about the rural left-behind. There has been a comfortable assumption that urbanization would continue, albeit at a lesser pace, and rural productivity rise and reduce income gaps. But there has always been one particularly gigantic flaw in the system, only partly ameliorated by sporadic attempts at reform: the hukou system which has created a two-class society. Thus although by most measures China is now at least 50 percent urbanized, measured by all-important hukou status only 36 percent is urban. Under the system, China’s vast army of newly urbanized workers must continue to be registered in their own home villages and provinces.
This is more than a statistic. It is fundamental, the book argues, to creating an educational deficit which if left unaddressed, will make it very difficult for China to move from middle- to higher-income status. In 2010, 44 percent of the total urban labor force did so but only 11 percent of rural ones. In other words, it will remain in the same middle-income trap as the likes of Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, and Thailand.
Now 93 percent of urban youth reach high school but rural ones lag very far behind. This might not matter so much if the rural cohort were smaller and dwindling. But, contrary to normal suppositions, the opposite has in fact been the case. Urban migrants without hukou are often forced to leave their children at home because of a lack of access to urban schools. Add in the fact that rural birth rates are higher anyway and the net result is that 70 percent of children today have rural hukou status.
The authors are in a way no hostile to China or its government system. But having spent years researching in rural China they not only feel strongly for this unseen China but want the situation to change so that China continues to prosper and thus enable the wider world to prosper. They note that long before Korea and Taiwan reached a high-income status, they were sowing the seeds of it through focus on achieving high levels of secondary and post-secondary education. China can boast top results by any international standards if the yardstick is some big city schools. But as of 2015 the share of the labor force with at least a high school education was only 30 percent, less than the likes of Brazil or the middle-income average of 36 percent.
Other things may be improving faster in China but human capital takes long to accumulate. China’s rural bias of an already low birth rate makes urgent action on rural education (and health) all the more important if China as a whole is to become rich.
Completed in early 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic was closing factories, one aspect of the book seems overly pessimistic – a massive loss of low-skill jobs to other countries or to automation. But even though China’s own workforce size is now at best static, official stimulus measures still focus heavily on infrastructure projects which mostly employ low skilled labor.
President Xi Jinping is evidently well aware of the education and other rural problems, including an income gap which would cause insurgency in many countries. But given the structure of the system, and the preference for party control, outsiders may reasonably assume that it will be very difficult even for someone as powerful as Xi to drive the change in national priorities that may be required. Those are, one must assume, not merely institutional but also the financial cost of space programs, aircraft carriers and Belt and Road billions at a time when the median age of the population is about the surpass that in the US.
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