Amazon.com: Customer Reviews: The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality

Amazon.com: Customer Reviews: The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality

The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality › Customer Reviews
Customer Reviews
4.4 out of 5 stars100
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Editorial Reviews
Review
Why have mainstream economists ignored environmental limits for so long? If Heinberg is right, they will have much explaining to do." -- LESTER BROWN, Founder Earth Policy Institute  --Lester Brown - Earth Policy Institute

Heinberg shows how peak oil, peak water, peak food, etc. lead not only to the end of growth, but to the beginning of a new era of progress without growth. --Herman E. Daly, Professor Emeritus, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland

By the time you finish this, you will have 2 conclusions: This is the end of economic growth and it is our problem, not our childrens'. It's time to get ready. This book is the place to start. --Paul Gilding - Former head of Greenpeace International

Richard has rung the bell on the limits to growth. Our shift from quantity of consumption to quality of life is the great challenge of our generation. Frightening...but ultimately freeing. --John Fullerton - President and Founder, Capital Institute

Nobody should be elected to federal office who has not  read Richard Heinberg's The End of Growth. - William Catton, author of Overshoot.

Economists insist that recovery is at hand, yet unemployment remains high, real estate values continue to sink, and governments stagger under record deficits. The End of Growth proposes a startling diagnosis: humanity has reached a fundamental turning point in its economic history. The expansionary trajectory of industrial civilization is colliding with non-negotiable natural limits.

Richard Heinberg's latest landmark work goes to the heart of the ongoing financial crisis, explaining how and why it occurred, and what we must do to avert the worst potential outcomes. Written in an engaging, highly readable style, it shows why growth is being blocked by three factors:

Resource depletion,
Environmental impacts, and
Crushing levels of debt.
These converging limits will force us to re-evaluate cherished economic theories and to reinvent money and commerce.

The End of Growth describes what policy makers, communities, and families can do to build a new economy that operates within Earth'sbudget of energy and resources. We can thrive during the transition if we set goals that promote human and environmental well-being, rather than continuing to pursue the now-unattainable prize of ever-expanding GDP.

From the Back Cover
As energy and food prices escalate and debt levels explode, paths that formerly led to economic prosperty now lead to disaster. This book proposes a startling diagnosis: the global economy has reached a fundamental turning point--the end of growth. The Great Recession will not end in "recovery." Still, we can thrive in coming years if we abandon the futile pursuit of growth in consumption and aim instead for improvements in quality of life.

Richard Heinberg's latest landmark work goes to the heart of the ongoing financial crisis, examining why it occurred, and what we must do to avert the worst potential outcomes. Written in an engaging style, it shows why growth can't continue in the face of resource depletion, environmental devastation, and mountains of debt.

The End of Growth re-evaluates cherished economic theories and describes what policymakers, communities, and families can do to build a new economy that operates within Earth's budget of energy and resources. We can thrive during the transition if we set goals that promote human and environmental well-being, rather than pursuing the now-unattainable prize of ever-expanding GDP.
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5.0 out of 5 starsAmerican Dream or American Fantasy
BySeven Zeroon August 1, 2011
Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase
I read this book over a month ago when it was first released through the Post Carbon Institute website. Then I ordered 2 more from Amazon, one for my town's library and one to loan out. I write this review now as the morning news on NPR reports that the democrats and republicans have come to some agreement on ending the debt ceiling crisis. If only that were good news, but apparently they have not read this book and unfortunately most likely never will. This book is the most important book you can read. It is written in a style that makes for easy understanding and were it not for its premise it could even be considered a pleasant read. But unfortunately it will not be read by enough people, not even enough people who you would like to think should read it. It is not fun entertainment, not even infotainment, and for some it is exactly what they don't want to read, a non-fiction book with dire news.

If you have read John Perkins and understand the difference between dream and fantasy as taught by the shamans of the Amazon, and have read Jared Diamonds "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed", and you then read this book, you will see how the "American Dream" is really an American "Fantasy" in which we through ignorance, avarice or, worse than either, denial, continue to build our own versions of Moai on a shrinking planet that increasingly resembles Easter Island except that our ocean is the vastly greater and even more inhospitable universe.

If you can read this book without being either an optimist or pessimist, but a rational thinking person, then your biggest battle may just be overcoming denial. Denial will tempt you to see technology and substitutions for energy and other dwindling non-renewable resources saving mankind, or it may allow you to seek the comfort of flimsy arguments claiming why this is just so much alarmist doom and gloom, or it may simply come in the form of going on with your life as you always have done because it is so much easier to simply ignore and deny it. Although Heinberg does offer some actions to be taken, they are not simple in the context of your typical community mentality. So between fighting off the continual temptations of denial, the denial or ignorance of others, or the unpleasant task of doing something other than something entertaining, our lives will never be as easy again.

If you have some knowledge of the difference between the economic philosophies of Keynes and Friedman and you have a tendency to lean toward one more than the other like I had before reading this book, then you should know that we have had a serious problem of not seeing the forest for the trees. Heinberg snapped me out of that blind trance with some simple undeniable facts. The problem now is that I have to wonder sometimes which state I rather be in, denial, in the dark, or aware of the truth.

In Diamond's book "Collapse..." regarding Easter Island he refers to the question "What was the man thinking who cut down the last tree?" Each one of us knows the answer. It is what we are thinking today as we go on with our own lives on a planet with finite resources.
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3.0 out of 5 starsThe Coming Great Contraction
ByB. CaseTOP 500 REVIEWERVINE VOICEon September 1, 2011
Format: Paperback
Richard Heinberg's newest book, "The End of Growth," gives an overview of the coming Great Contraction. Heinberg argues that the global economy is at a major tipping point. It is his contention that the global economy is at the end of growth and that growth is absolutely necessary in order for the current economic system to function in a healthy and stable state. Without growth, global economies will contract and civilizations will fail.

The book is well researched and written. However, for those individuals who have been following the literature of impending global civilization collapse, this book holds few surprises. What it does very well is explain in clear language the existing global economic system and how it has arrived at the very unstable and unhealthy state that we find it in. The book then fits this impending contracting and collapsing economic situation in with other trends that are propelling the civilized world toward collapse. In particular, it is based on the author's fervent belief in the physical limits of planet Earth and the necessity of building a new economic system that supports sustainable living.

The author warns readers who are unfamiliar with the literature of global civilization collapse that his book will likely undermine their "mental equilibrium in a way that is both deeply uncomfortable and exhilarating." I agree.

If you wish to read two pages in the book that the author uses to outline exactly how the book is constructed and summarizes the content of each chapter, use the "Look Inside The Book" feature at the top of the main page for this title in Amazon and search for the text string "Chapter 1 is a potted history." Reading this may help you decide on whether or not this book is for you.

The book is designed for readers with little to no formal training in economics. For those of you who are already convinced that we are headed toward global civilization contraction and collapse and desire a focused economic perspective, the book is recommended. For those of you who desire a broader or more academic treatment with rigorous arguments about the why and when of the predicted coming Great Contraction, you will probably want to look for another book.

A far better book that covers this general topic powerfully is Thomas Homer-Dixon's "The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization." That book was published at the beginning of 2008, so it has little light to shed on the current global economic instability other than to establish eloquently the trends that existed that would eventually cause the meltdown. I'd give Heinberg's book a solid three-and-a-half stars, while Homer-Dixon's books would win an enthusiastic five stars. I am not alone in my praise of this other book; it was designated as the "Best Book of the Year" by the "Financial Times" and won the Canadian National Business Book Award. I recommend that you read Homer-Dixon's book first, then, if you desire more on this theme that focuses primarily on the economy, read Heinberg's.
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5.0 out of 5 starsThe Growth of Understanding
ByD. Wellingson July 22, 2011
Format: Paperback
I sent off for an advance copy of [[ASIN:0865716951 The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality] a few weeks ago. Having heard Richard Heinberg give a talk a while back, and receiving his regular Museletters, my expectations were high. I was not disappointed. The man has an incredible gift for making complexity appear simple, and for delivering unpalatable facts with gentle irony. The historical development of the modern economy is laid bare, our current predicament is there for all to see, and the only rational solution is given a thorough airing. Buy it for your friends, buy it for business people large and small. It is an essential primer for building the future.
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5.0 out of 5 starsEnd of Growth review from a Mexican
BySergio I. Solorzanoon June 30, 2011
Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase
This book explains perfect the foundation of our modern society and it's huge mistakes in economics, energy, population and environment, which they all have limits, and society will have to redefine itself due to this, the question is will we do it voluntary or will we have to face a crisis?. I think this information should be one of the most important topics in our time, probably the most. It's a tipping point in personal conscience based on facts and statistics, and how we really should reorganize our priorities.
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5.0 out of 5 starsAmazing!
ByPaula Rohrbaughon July 21, 2011
Format: Paperback
Richard Heinberg manages to survey the history and present of our economic/ecological crises and write about them in an interesting fashion which makes our current situation suddenly much more understandable. He also makes it crystal clear that new understanding and solutions are necessary, pointing in the direction of solutions which are apt to work and at the same time lead to a better way to live. Rough times are here and also ahead, yet directions for hope emerge with shining clarity. This is a book for everyone to read who cares about a future for themselves, their country, or their world.
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5.0 out of 5 starsone of the most important book of our times.
Byjenergyon July 22, 2011
Format: Paperback
Imagine how you would feel if a giant UFO landed on the Capitol Mall near the Washington Monument. There would be denial, disbelief, fear, and great uncertainty in the future. Leaders would struggle to make sense of the events yet display ignorance in how to proceed. The landing would change everything. While UFOs may not be real, the end of growth is, and that fact will also change everything. The End of Growth is one of the most important works of our time and will certainly elicit disbelief and denial. With a mix of clear thought and ample empirical evidence, Heinberg advances the work of many great authors and thinkers in a reader friendly style to arrive at his well supported conclusions. Regardless of your political beliefs, the problems, struggles and hopes that lay ahead impact everyone. This is a must read if you want to understand what is happening to our economic and natural systems and should be required reading by all policy makers.
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5.0 out of 5 starsTectonic forces are turning growth to contraction
ByDick_Burkharton July 21, 2011
Format: Paperback
Once again Richard Heinberg demonstrates his remarkable ability to convey the big picture. Alarmist, yet not too alarmist. Is modern civilization itself a giant bubble, slated for collapse as it overruns its resource base? Yes, but the collapse need not be total if we scale back intelligently, learning to share again, become adaptable, and seek what is truly sustainable.

Heinberg gives great overviews of the financial bubble, the debt trap, the Chinese bubble, limits-to-resources, limits-to-technology, and the failure of economics. Civilization has reached the peak of the mountain built by growth, and is now crossing a rocky ridge before plunging into the mists of time. Most people gaze at their feet, to avoid stumbling on rocks or to get around boulders, or some gaze in satisfied comfort at the well-lit terrain behind, anticipating even loftier peaks to scale ahead.

But Heinberg seeks to comprehend the tectonic forces that built the mountain, and constrain it, to better fathom the dangerous cliffs and narrow valleys that lie hidden below the mists ahead. He suggests several ways for individuals and communities to negotiate this difficult terrain, such as the Energy Descent Action Plans of Transition Towns.

Far more important are clear courses of action at national and global levels, yet these are much harder to come by. What would a global financial system look like if it were designed to promote sustainable well being instead of maintaining the power of wealthy special interests? Or are national government destined for default, hyperinflation, heavy taxation, drastic cuts in services, failing infrastructure, civil disorder, destructive warfare, or some combination of these? Or is there some way to muddle through?

After deflating the balloons of the faith-in-technology folks, Heinberg, Greer, and others need to give serious thought to fully developing more realistic scenarios to guide our politics. Within a few years more people will be ready to pay attention, as the usual options dwindle.
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5.0 out of 5 starsThe IOU is now due
BySimply Curiouson August 25, 2011
Format: Paperback
This book has such important implications for the future I plan to give a copy of it to my financial adviser.

The book effectively uses representative and systematic data to argue we are in ecological overshoot and economic overshoot. Either one is alarming; together they sound a critical alarm; if only it can be heard!

The author distinguishes between economies--the exchange of goods and services--and economics--a money-based model of an economy. Fractional reserve banking, debt-based currencies, and displacing externalities allow the two to diverge significantly. As a result, our financial accounting systems are giving us false signals.

We live in a world with ever-increasing levels of financial debt--public and private. We are also depleting the earth's natural resources, including fresh water, fertile soil, forests, marine ecosystems, biodiversity, fossil fuels, minerals, and pollution sinks. Since debt represents a promise of future repayment of labor and resources the book argues it is inevitable that the aggregate promises to repay will eventually exceed the available resources for repayment. In fact, that may have already have happened.

He argues convincingly that "we have created an economic machine that needs debt like a car needs gas," and that "the existing market economy has no `stable' or `neutral' setting: there is only growth or contraction."

Economics relies on several premises which are clearly false:
1) Growth can continue indefinitely,
2) Externalities can be safely ignored,
3) Natural resources represent income that increases as they are extracted rather than capital which depreciates as it is depleted, and
4) Resources can be substituted for one another with infinite flexibility.

He concludes "...the world economic system is held together largely by the belief and faith that it will continue to grow. It's a confidence scheme, in the purest sense."

Limits to ecological growth are well documented in the book: global marine seafood capture peaked in 1994, global oil production is probably past its peak, and we are approaching peak coal, peak water, and peaks for several key minerals. Unfortunately efficiency, substitution, innovation, and other technological magic are insufficient to close the gap between our present consumption and earth's limits.

As these limits are recognized more broadly, competition to retain a large slice of a shrinking pie will intensify. This is likely to unfold as increased struggles between nations, competition among world currencies, old vs. young, rich vs. poor, consumption and opulence vs. conservation and flourishing, short term opportunists against long-term thinkers, and along other lines of conflict. Planning can reduce the chaos while denial, delay, and panic will aggravate the disputes.

He concludes: "We have accumulated too many financial-monetary claims on real assets--consisting of energy, food, labor, manufactured products, built infrastructures, and natural resources" to ever be repaid. This leads to his rather bleak default scenario--his prediction of what will happen if leadership remains absent. It features various forms of debt-jubilees--schemes to discharge debt--with various big-time winners and losers.

Compared to other literature on limits to growth, I find these scenarios grimmer. I hope this is only his hyperbole, but I fear it is his expertise and candidness.

Our post-growth world needs to meet several criteria:
1) The economy must be steady-state and not one that relies on growth,
2) Renewable resources will be harvested at a rate slower than they are replenished,
3) Non-renewable resources will be extracted at declining rates, supported by increased rates of recycling,
4) Human population will stabilize at a level supported by these sustainable practices.

To help us imagine life after growth the last chapters describe several communities experimenting with sustainable economies designed to increase well-being and happiness rather than GDP.

The transition will be difficult, but the sooner we start, the better options we have. "All of the solutions to our growth-based problems involve some form of self-restraint," he states before asking, "The crucial question is, how serious will that crisis have to be to get our collective attention and force us to change our behavior?"

Unfortunately deniers addicted to unsustainable growth are unmoved by facts. I am concerned the well-presented facts and well-drawn conclusions of this important book will do nothing to influence those invested in preserving their obsolete and dangerous world views.
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5.0 out of 5 starsReality whether you like it or not
ByKarenon August 4, 2011
Format: Paperback
Richard Heinberg is the one man that can put all the elements of our problems together with out sugar coating or lying. What he says is not something most people in America are ready to hear but I will say he is a master among us. He takes energy, money, debt, economics, Republicans, Democrats, Climate change and fits all the pieces together to make sense of our world. Most people will not entertain the problems he outlines and be in denial but kudos to him for saying it.
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5.0 out of 5 starsSpeeding toward a memorable future
ByRichard Reese (author of Sustainable or Bust)on August 13, 2012
Format: Paperback
Richard Heinberg has been a pundit on the Peak Oil beat for more than ten years. With each passing year, his understanding of diminishing resources has grown. In 2007 he redefined the problem as Peak Everything. He came to see that industrial civilization was gobbling up non-renewable resources at a rate that spelled serious problems for the generation currently alive, which included himself. Yikes!

This mind-expanding learning process provided a miraculous cure for blissful ignorance, and replaced it with a healthy awareness of an unhealthy reality. Heinberg has been jumping up and down and shouting warnings for a long time, but the world has largely ignored him. The world perceived our incredibly unhealthy reality to be perfectly normal, because we were all born into it, as were our parents and grandparents. Normal means normal. Stop jumping up and down, already! Get a life!

Heinberg avoided suffering from normal thinking because, late at night, he secretly explored the magic and mysteries of history, which gave him special powers of vision. He could see that the twentieth century was simply a calamitous freak in human history, powered by recklessly binging on cheap and abundant energy, a nightmare that can never again be repeated, thank goodness. Hence, normal was insane. Normal was in big danger. He kept shouting at us.

In July 2008, the price of oil skyrocketed to $150. In September, the financial system went sideways. Was this The Big One? Had the luxurious unsinkable Titanic fatally impaled itself on an iceberg of powerful reality? Was the pleasure cruise about to become a life-threatening struggle for survival? The shadows suddenly became much darker, cold winds howled, thunder rumbled, and the Earth shook.

This big shift inspired Heinberg to write a new book, The End of Growth. His thesis was that time is running out on the era of perpetual economic growth (i.e., "normal" living). Obviously, never-ending expansion was impossible on a finite planet. Heinberg foresaw that growth might continue for a while in a few places, but growth for the overall global economy was essentially finished. There were three reasons for this.

First, the days of cheap oil were behind us. Global oil production peaked in 2005, and this level of production could not be indefinitely maintained. Eventually production would shift into its decline phase -- less oil for sale, and more expensive. No combination of alternative energy sources could replace the role of oil in industrial society, or even come close. The supply of oil was finite, and the cheap and easy oil had already been reduced to noxious clouds of carbon emissions.

Second, economic growth was getting more resistance from environmental challenges. Fresh water was getting scarce in many places. Climate change was creating costly problems. Food production could barely keep pace with rising population. The health of cropland, range land, and forests was declining. Oceanic fisheries were depleted. The prices for important minerals and metals were rising.

Third, on 15 September 2008, the financial system experienced a terrifying near death experience. Much of what had appeared to be a growing economy was actually a colossal bubble of growing debt, like a Ponzi scheme. Borrowed money had turbocharged the global economy for almost 30 years. It was a merry party of intoxicated gaiety and foolish excess, but now it was time for the dry heaves and roaring hangover. The party was over, and the place was a mess.

Peak cheap energy, by itself, was enough to bring an end to perpetual growth. But combined with a wheezing planet and a terminally ill financial system, the result was like a perfect storm, hastening the inevitable demise of industrial civilization. We had crossed a watershed, moving from a time of growth to a time of contraction. We had begun a long journey back toward traditional normality -- a muscle-powered way of life, because muscle power will once again be cheaper than doing work with machines.

Heinberg does an impressive job of describing the crash of '08 in way that is easy to understand. It's not a pretty picture. Legions of greed-crazed speculators did whatever they could to seize as much wealth as possible, by any means necessary, legal or not. By 2003, banks were giving mortgages to people with no money and no source of income. Then they quickly offloaded these toxic assets onto clueless investors, who believed that they were top quality investments. In this manner, many trillions of dollars were vaporized.

In the absence of a growing economy, it will be impossible to service today's stratospheric debts. The banking system still holds vast quantities of absolutely worthless "assets," creating a temporary illusion of viability. We can expect to see continued bank failures, corporate bankruptcies, and home foreclosures. "At some point in the next few years, stock and real estate values will plunge, banks will close, and businesses will shutter their doors," warned Heinberg.

If the objective is recovery -- returning to the idiocy of unlimited pathological borrowing -- there simply is no solution, at any price. Instead, we would be wise to adapt to the new conditions, and direct our attention to reducing the turbulence and suffering of the contraction process. We're not looking at the end of the world here, just an uncomfortable return to stability. The healing process is likely to take generations, but the final result may actually be quite pleasant. A tolerable collapse is theoretically possible. No matter how it unfolds, the end result is that our economic system and lifestyles will be far simpler.

For most of the book, Heinberg thoroughly discusses why the growth economy is ending. Near the end, he presents "solutions." Like many, he dreams of a future in which the benefits of industrial civilization are preserved, while the myriad problems of industrial civilization are wished away. He asks, "Can we surrender cars, highways, and supermarkets, but still keep cultural exchange, tolerance, and diversity, along with our hard-won scientific knowledge, advanced healthcare, and instant access to information?" Well, yes we can, for a while, but this would require disregarding long-term sustainability, and living at the expense of the unborn generations. This is not going to be a century of easy living.

Richard Adrian Reese
Author of What Is Sustainable