2018-04-12

Donald Trump has apparently flipped on Vladimir Putin, but it's not just about Syria - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)



Donald Trump has apparently flipped on Vladimir Putin, but it's not just about Syria - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)



Donald Trump has apparently flipped on Vladimir Putin, but it's not just about Syria
By chief foreign correspondent Philip Williams

Updated about 3 hours ago


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Are you thinking the same thing? How did we get to this "World War III" conjecture? Wasn't it just a couple of weeks ago that President Trump was talking up the possibility of a great relationship with Russia?

That was before the gas attack in Douma.

Suddenly, Vladimir Putin was cast as the devil, along with Iran, condemned by Donald Trump for aiding and abetting the "gas killing animal", Bashar al-Assad.



Donald J. Trump
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Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!
8:27 PM - Apr 11, 2018
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Before the dead were all counted, the relationship between the old Cold-War foes had deteriorated. Vitriolic exchanges between the US and Russian ambassadors in the UN security council left no room for compromise. In short, it was on.

What "it" actually is or what the consequences are is yet to evolve.

But there has been a seismic shift in attitude towards Russia by President Trump from accommodation to outright aggression.

And it may not be entirely related to Syria, the UK nerve gas attack or any of the other fault lines.
Hosing down collusion talk?

Mr Trump has other Russian worries much closer to home: accusations of Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election, with various past and present members of the President's inner circle charged, investigated or "persons of interest" to the special FBI investigation headed by Robert Mueller.
PHOTO: Allegations of Russian collusion in the 2016 presidential election are being investigated by the FBI. (Reuters: Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin)



That pressure has intensified in recent days with the offices of Mr Trump's personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, being searched. The closer the Mueller team gets to the President the louder he denounces the FBI "witch-hunt".

Many speculate the President will move to have the investigation shut down. Nothing to see here, President Trump insists.

But any attempt to stop Mr Mueller would be met with such fury in Washington there is every chance it could spark impeachment proceedings with support from both the democrats and at least some Republicans.


So, it could be quite handy right now for Mr Trump to be seen as standing up to Russian aggression. Who could argue there was collusion between Team Trump and Moscow then?

And when the US missiles do rain down on Syrian targets, that will undoubtedly capture the world's attention. Could that provide a window of opportunity in Washington for a Commander in Chief to rid himself of that pesky Mueller thing? A good time to bury bad news.

If this were Trump's idea, it's a risky one. Squaring up to the Russians could seriously escalate.

But doing nothing and allowing the Assad regime to gas its own citizens seems untenable too.

Middle East braces for Trump
A new conflict is gathering pace in the Middle East, with Israel facing off against Iran and its proxies, and all eyes on Donald Trump's next move, writes Matt Brown.



Russia could strike back anywhere

The Russian response may not play out in Syria. Moscow has a list of pressure points in Europe.

It could ramp up the war in the east of Ukraine. Reignite conflict with its neighbour Georgia. Stir up trouble in the Baltic states, or boost its missile capability in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. Mr Putin's answer to a show of US power in Syria could be a well-placed cyber-attack rather than a direct flex of its military muscle.

It may not come to that, but Mr Putin cannot afford to be pushed around by Trump.


He has built his power on a carefully nurtured narrative of the strong man standing firm against Russia's many enemies.

And he is facing a US President who also talks tough.

Caught in the middle of this superpower posturing are the citizens of Syria. They have no control over decisions made in faraway capitals that could see them killed in many different ways.
PHOTO: Mr Trump and Mr Putin at the APEC Summit in late 2017. (Jorge Silva: AP)


China, Iran and North Korea watching

Mr Trump's handling of this crisis will be carefully analysed in Pyongyang and Beijing. He is due to speak with North Korea's Kim Jong-un in May or June. The North Koreans will be keen to decipher the US President's intentions ahead of that historic meeting, if it indeed does happen.

In Tehran too, the government will be attempting to glean intelligence ahead of its inevitable clash with Washington over the nuclear deal Donald Trump looks certain to dump.


Beijing will also be watching events in Syria because it too faces possible conflict over its contested claim to the South China Sea and a looming trade war with the United States.
PHOTO: Trump's erratic approach to foreign policy could work in his favour. (AP: Evan Vucci)


Unpredictability as Trump's best weapon?

It may just be that Mr Trump's unconventional approach to international conflicts works to his advantage.

If his enemies believe he is unstable, they may err on the side of caution for fear of provoking a man they can't read.

Global relationships haven't been this strained for decades. Even the Cold War had something going for it: a degree of predictability.

The very idea of a major war would have been preposterous even a year ago. It's not so absurd now.

Topics: unrest-conflict-and-war, world-politics, foreign-affairs, government-and-politics, donald-trump, united-states,syrian-arab-republic, russian-federation

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