The Iran War Expert: The Most Dangerous Stage Begins Now (STAGE 4) - YouTube

The Iran War Expert: The Most Dangerous Stage Begins Now (STAGE 4) - YouTube

The Iran War Expert: The Most Dangerous Stage Begins Now (STAGE 4)

The Diary Of A CEO

15.9M subscribers

4,182,605 views  Apr 13, 2026  New Episodes

4 weeks ago he predicted America would send troops to Iran, now Robert Pape returns to reveal what could happen next!

Robert Pape is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and one of the world's leading authorities on military strategy and security affairs. He has advised every White House since 9/11 on military strategy and bombing campaigns and is the author of 'Our Own Worst Enemies: America and the Age of Violent Populism'.

He explains:

◼ The 4-stage escalation trap and why every prediction he made has come true

◼ How Iran and Russia controlling 30% of the world's oil could crash your economy

◼ Why killing Iran's leaders is making the country stronger, not weaker

◼ Why America can bomb Iran's nuclear sites but still can't stop them getting the bomb

◼ The only deal that could stop Iran getting nuclear weapons and why it probably won't happen

00:00 Intro

04:38 20 Years Of War Games Predicted This Conflict

06:24 Bombing Iran’s Nuclear Sites Might Backfire

08:02 How US Pressure Strengthened Iran

12:19 Iran’s Hidden Power Structure Revealed

14:58 The Final Stage Of The Escalation Trap

17:31 Iran As The Fourth Global Power Center

24:14 What Happens Next If No One Backs Down

26:24 Iran Has Been Seriously Underestimated

27:42 Is US Intelligence Reliant On Israel?

32:06 What If This Turns Into A Ground War

40:23 A Civilization Could Die Tonight

44:19 What This War Means For Ordinary Iranians

50:25 Ads

52:33 Is The US Locked Into A Long War?

55:43 Iran’s 10-Point Plan Explained

57:34 The Shifting Global Power Balance

01:01:13 Why US Oil Prices Are Rising

01:05:08 If You Were Trump: What Would You Do?

01:07:20 If Israel Joins The Nuclear Treaty

01:09:57 What Experts Think Happens Next

01:13:49 Ads

01:15:46 What Iran Would Do With Nuclear Weapons

01:17:58 Has Trump Lost Control?

01:21:28 What This Means For Europe

01:28:27 What Can The Average Person Do?

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Intro

Iran has figured out that we can't beat them. We're not weakening Iran. We have

strengthened Iran and we can't stop their drone attacks. And what you're

seeing is far more chaotic decision-making is happening in the White House than is happening in the government of Iran and it's evidence

Trump is losing power. So when I look through the response to the last conversation, the audience had lots of

different types of questions. Like there's 90 odd million people stuck right in the heart of this that often don't really have a voice. What do you

think happens next for them and what is Israel's role in this? Well, Israel is playing two roles here

that have not helped us correctly assess the situation and we'll talk about that. And then what do you think happens with

Europe? NATO is for all practical purposes dead and what happens next.

So for 21 years, I laid out what a hypothetical bombing campaign of Iran

would look like. And when I was here last time, every single thing we talked about unfolded in the first several

weeks of the war. So when you did this 21 years of modeling these attacks, how did America

come out of this situation? So there was a consistent set of findings and America can bomb them,

attack them. We could even threaten to murder all 92 million of them. But the bottom line is

that is the real danger for us.

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Please help us. Really appreciate it. Let's get on with the show.

Professor Robert Pabe, good to see you again. Great to see you again, Stephen. It's been 4 weeks since we sat down and

talked about everything that was happening in the war and it's all moved at light speed. You made some

predictions then. Many of them have come true already and many of them still unfolding. But I wanted to get you back

to talk about what the hell is going on. And I think that's kind of how I started last conversation. But there's so much

that's being said and I get the sense that there's a truth that sits underneath there somewhere because when

you look at what the Iranians are saying, when you look at what the Israelis are saying, when you look at what Trump and America are saying, and then you look at reality, at some level,

I feel like we're not being told the truth. My first question to you, professor, is who are you and who are

you to speak on this subject matter? I am a professor at the University of Chicago. I have been there for 26 years

almost 27 years and before that I was a professor who taught for the US Air

Force. I taught conventional targeting and I thought I was going to go into the foreign service. I wanted to understand

how we lost the Vietnam War and this became the origins of bombing to win which is your book I have here in front

of me. That's bombing to win in 1985. I've just finished all my classes and I have to pick a topic for my PhD. I wanted to

find the book that laid out all the air campaigns and that explained why Vietnam

was a loser. Where did that L come from? When you say air campaigns, for someone that knows nothing about military

conflict, what do you mean by air campaigns? What I mean with an air campaign is when you have military aircraft who were not

just doing a single raid bombing one target one day, but doing a campaign

over days, weeks, months. in the case of Vietnam over years.

And you wanted to figure out why countries that do these military campaigns, which is pretty much what's

going on now in the Middle East, why they don't tend to win. Why they don't win when they're so

strong? Why is it that when a strong power really gets its act together, it's

not careless, it's really thinking hard, it then applies this force, a campaign

overtime and comes out a loser. And you modeled for 20 years a war with

20 Years Of War Games Predicted This Conflict

Iran versus the United States. That's exactly right. I imagined uh in

class for 90 minutes I laid out what a hypothetical bombing campaign of Iran

would look like starting with the bombing of its nuclear enrichment sites.

There's multiple sites. There's uh Ford which is an industrial enrichment where there are centerfuges. There's Natans

also centuges. There's Esphon where you have gasification of the ore so you can

make the centurfuges more efficient. So, it's not just one target. There's a whole target set, a complex of targets.

And so, what I would do is I would lay out here are the aircraft that could be used. Uh, here are the likely results at

a tactical level. Ah, yes, just for context. So, we're looking at a map of Iran and we're

looking at the Persian Gulf. And um Iran of course is to the east of the of the

Persian Gulf and Thran is up to the north middle. Right in the middle are a whole series of these nuclear sites. You

have Sagad which is where the uranium ore actually comes from. They don't have to bring in ore. They have plenty of

ore, but the ore has to be distilled so that you can get the tiny bits of uranium 235 you need for uh enriching

the uranium for either nuclear reactors or bombgrade uranium. That's first none

at esphon to gasify the ore so that when it spins in the centerfuge uh facilities

at Natans and Ford, you can get the purity of the uranium 235. That's what

we're talking about here when we say it's enriched. So when you did this 21 years of modeling these attacks, how did the

Bombing Iran’s Nuclear Sites Might Backfire

model show America came out of this situation? There was a consistent set of findings

you just couldn't ignore, Stephen, which is our bombers would always be able to

destroy the target, the industrial facility that was enriching the uranium.

The problem always was, no matter uh which year we did this, you wouldn't be

able to destroy the enriched material, the actual gold. So, if you're panning

for gold, you see what I mean? And you've got the gold. Uh you can destroy the pan, you can even destroy the river,

you can't get the gold. So, let me repeat that back to you in layman's terms, and you tell me if I'm correct.

So they they could bomb these sites where they're making the enriched uranium, but it wouldn't destroy the enriched uranium. It would just put it

underneath a bunch of rubble. That's right. So you can bomb it, but you're basically just kicking the can down the road because at some point they can go back

and get it. It's undamaged. And then they can carry on their process. That's right. And and Stephen, they

might even anticipate the bombs coming because they might get some indications, you know, we're building up and then

disperse in advance. And the at the end of last year they did operation midnight hammer where they bombed the sides with

these incredible exactly as we did in class. Literally I had just modeled it for the students

three weeks before and almost exactly the platforms I mean on you know the B2s

the MOAB I mean every single thing we talked about if unfolded just as we had

modeled in class. So what is going on now? I want you to help me cut through all of this noise

How US Pressure Strengthened Iran

and all of this propaganda. What's going on now is uh we're not weakening Iran in

a sense where Iran will be weaker a year from now, two years from now. We have

strengthened Iran and we're strengthening Iran in multiple ways. So

far, we've just been talking about bombs on target. My real specialty, Stephen,

is the interaction of military action and politics. You're not just hitting an

industrial target. people in the country, the population, the regime, they're reacting to that politically.

And that reaction is tremendously important. And that's what I discovered

in my work studying Vietnam in the 1980s. The why the bombing campaign was

failing, the political reactions by the population often are overwhelming the tactical

military effects. So you can hit the target, you can destroy the industrial

facilities um and in fact you can energize the population to work even

harder to overcome all that damage and sometimes they have tremendous

geographic advantages. In Vietnam, there was an area called the Ho Chi Min Trail,

which was a where the logistics where the ammo for the um Vietkong guerrilla

fighters in the south were getting their ammo. And in the 1960s, we knocked out

80 plus% of the throughput of that pipeline, of that trail. You know what?

It wasn't enough. And we ended up not being able to stop that little itty

bitty bit of throughput that can't still could get through and incentivize even more to get it through because they knew

we couldn't stop it. And that is what fueled the VC and ultimately uh the

Vietkong the gorillas that were uh we were really up against in Vietnam. That is what ultimately bolstered their

morale. They knew we couldn't beat them. Even though we whittleled them down by

80%, we couldn't get that last 15 or 20%. And that was what was energizing

their morale. So, how does that apply to what's going on now? In simple terms, what's going on? Iran has figured out that uh we can't

beat them. That's what's going on, Stephen. They are figuring out that we can't beat them. We can bomb them. We

can um attack them. We could even threaten to murder all 92 million of

them, which is the civilization threat by uh by President Trump. And the bottom line is that we can't get to that final

10 20% of um drones and missiles. Okay. Okay. That Iran has and it's probably

bigger than that that we can't knock out. See, we're able to knock out anything that's above ground. that

there's a launcher and it's above ground, we can see it. We can see it with satellites. We can see it with

other sensors as well. That thing is going to be gone in a few days. And that's what the air campaign that you've

watched for 40 days is doing. When Secretary Hegth or General Kaine talk about hitting 11 12,000 targets, these

are targets, most of the almost all of them that are very clearly visible and

above ground. This is true of the Navy ships as well. Well, guess what? The Iranians knew that was always going to

be vulnerable. So what they've been doing is they have been not just deeply uh burying their industrial enrichment

facilities, they've been deeply burying their arsenals of drones, deeply burying

their arsenals of missiles. And so they are in a position where even though we

are unleashing enormous amounts of air power against them and we are technically superior, we can't stop

their drone attacks against the ships in the straight of Hormuz. They know it.

They can use that to their advantage. And boy are they using it to their advantage enormously. Yesterday, the

Iran’s Hidden Power Structure Revealed

Secretary of War, Pete Hegsth, did a press conference, and one of the reporters said to him, "There's been a

ceasefire announced, but it appears that Iran is still attacking neighboring countries." Hegth's response to the

reporter was, "Iran would be wise to find a way to get their carrier pigeon

to the troops out in remote locations to let them know not to shoot any longer.

It can sometimes take time for ceasefires to take hold, which was really alarming to me because it

suggests that there is actually not a centralized leadership structure in Iran. And actually, if there's not a centralized leadership structure, how

does one negotiate a ceasefire if there's lots of different factions doing lots of different things? Now, is that

true? I would say it's probably decentralized. I think he's probably right about that. I'm trying to figure out who in Iran is

negotiating with America and why it doesn't seem to be the case that whoever is negotiating control the fact that

people are still firing. Oh, I see. I see. Yeah. decentralization means chaotic and they can't actually

make decisions. That's just not the case. The more you move up the chain of command, the more the leader can give

pre-delegated orders. If X happens, do do Y. Those can hold for hours and days.

Uh and that's true in every organization. That's why leaders can go on vacation uh for a week and come back

and they're worried of course when they come back. But the bottom line is that the leaders are setting the strategic

direction. Who is the leader? Oh, it's definitely the supreme leader, the son of the one we just killed. Oh,

without a doubt. I think this idea that that he's not there, there's absolutely no evidence of that. Yes, it's

decentralized in the sense it's hard to find them, to target them. But by the way, Stephen, I think the reason that

we're trying to talk smack about the Supreme Leader, is he is he alive? Is he dead? is we're trying to goat him into

revealing his location so we can kill him. But that's not working. So, and

it's also not stopping Iran from putting out 10 points to Pakistan uh in the

negotiations. It's not stopping Iran from having messages that go through Pakistan to um the White House.

President Trump is then agreeing to the 10 points that are coming from Iran, you see. And then um later on, of course,

President Trump is taking it back. But the bottom line is um what you're seeing in terms of chaotic decisionmaking

far more chaotic decision-m is happening in the White House in the United States than it's happening in the government of

Iran. They're rising power in the region as our power is is declining

precipitously. What do you think happens next? We are at a fork in the road. When I was

The Final Stage Of The Escalation Trap

here last time, uh, I was walking you through the three stages of the escalation trap and you kept pushing me,

tell me more, tell me more. Notice I I was a little bit reluctant to do that.

Well, there is a stage four. For anyone that didn't hear that episode, could you give us a one sentence on stage one?

And yes, stage one is America bombs, does leadership change bombing. We hit

targets, kill leaders, but the regime actually evolves and is stronger than

before. Uh stage two is that then stronger regime lashes back with

horizontal escalation and takes the straight of horos at least initially

takes the straight of horos. And then stage three is that's the ground option

to start to take the straight of Hormuz back. And that's exactly what you saw play out in the first several weeks of

the war. Stage three was about the Marines. The Marines hadn't even moved yet. And I'm telling you, the Marines

are likely going to move. There's going to be movement to ground options in stage three uh here very rapidly in this

war. At that point in time when we had our first discussion, you wanted to push for the future. I said, "No, we we need

to wait." And the reason, Stephen, is because what you're not seeing with me is throwing random darts at the future.

I'm doing risk assessment out about as far as you uh you can have stable

predictions. And in war, that usually means 2 3 4 weeks. It doesn't mean we

can say where we'll be a year from now. Here though, now that we're in 40 days,

we're at a different point. We've clearly passed stage one. We're past stage two where they uh control the

straight of form moves. We've bellied up to stage three, the ground operations. Now we're at a branch, a fork in the

road. There's no way to go back to February 27, which is the pre-war period

that many people would love to go back to. I too would like to go back to February 27th. That's not the future.

What happens at this point on in the modeling and the is a branch either we

go through with the ground war or Iran becomes an emerging not right away

fourth center of world power. That is the branch that we face now. This branch

is becoming more evident hour by hour. Explain that to me. So everybody now

Iran As The Fourth Global Power Center

knows that Iran is uh controlling the straight of form and controlling

shipping. That's selective blockade. I'm taking it a step further. That's not just about insurance rates of shipping.

That's generating political power for Iran to get other states to cowtow to it

to accept its objectives. What are those objectives? So let's talk

about how this affects say Asia. So I'm going to get into global and then we'll come back to the Gulf itself. So the

shipping that goes through the straight of H for H for H for H for H for H for H for H for H for H for Hormuz 80 to 90% of it is going right to Asia. The power

that comes with that is with say India. India is not siding with the United

States. India is at best neutral and maybe even a little bit more uh uh

edging toward Iran. Well, before this, you could imagine that the United States

and India would be much more cooperative here. That's not what's occurring. And why is that? It's because that oil

that's going into Asia for India, this isn't just about the price of oil. This

is about the supply of oil. When you lose literally all the supply, that is a

greater cost than simply having to pay more for it. So India is in a much more

difficult situation than Europe and the United States right now. Now look at Japan. Notice in the Oval Office,

President Trump brought in uh the leader of the head of state of Japan and basically browbeat her and she still

wouldn't budge. She still would not cowtow to Trump here uh and actually

provide military support. What did she do? She's distancing herself from the

United States. That's exactly what Iran wants out of America's Asian allies.

This is geopolitical power and it's rooted in the control of Hormos. It's

rooted in the selective military blockade. That selective military blockade produces vulnerability to

India, vulnerability to Japan. And that is what the we call it the leverage. But

the leverage is is not enough of a I think a full description. This is reorienting America's allies in Asia.

Now, let's talk about what's happening in the Persian Gulf itself. Before the war, February 27, there was essentially

a balance in the Persian Gulf where you had Iran on one side and you had this

growing collection of Gulf states that were part of an emerging web. They're

cooperating with Israel more and more on different um on different issues. President Trump is bringing in his AI

billionaires to sort of grease this cooperation so that there's some

material benefits. Well, that was effectively a counterbalancing coalition to Iran. Now, what's happened

after 40 days is this is breaking down fast. America has military bases in

Qatar, has military bases in uh Baharrain, has military bases in Kuwait. I'm just picking a few. Had military

base of course in in Saudi Arabia. These military bases, they are producing

little leverage here against Iran. In fact, our aircraft carriers are not

anywhere near the Persian Gulf. They're a thousand miles away. These bases are

big fat targets. They are above ground. Iran's precision drones can hit things above ground and

they're doing it on those bases. That was their immediate retaliation. What is what's happening number one is the

anchor the military anchor of this coalition started to disappear within hours of the bombing on February 28th.

What do you mean by the military anchor? In order to have this coalition work,

which is like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait,

somebody has to be the LA the the guaranter of protection. It's like the

Ma boss who protects everybody else. That is the United States. And that is

what our military bases were supposed to do. They become the military anchor that

allows then for there to become political counterbalancing against Iran.

That was the Kushner idea in the first Trump administration. And it seemed to

work and it seemed to uh bring some of these states together who wouldn't necessarily think you would cooperate

with with Israel. Well, this is now this war is torpedoing this whole idea.

President Trump is not even willing to do much to actually defend our own bases, much less Saudi Arabia, much less

UAE. What he's telling them is you go out there and start defending yourself. Well, that's not a guaranter of

security. The next thing that's happening is the three these states which were operating more in concert are

starting to break down and operate in three pools. You have Iraq which is now

complaining more and more about milit US military presence there. They're distancing themselves from American

military presence. And remember we installed that government in 2003. So they're not siding with us. They're

distancing themselves uh from us. Then you have Qatar and you have uh Oman. Uh

what Iran's doing is saying, you know, we should share some of these uh t these tolls with Oman. They're moving Oman

into their camp. So you have Iraq moving closer to Iran. Oman moving closer.

Qatar is trying to keep its head down as much as possible. They're not they're not trying to get their nose in this

anymore. And who is what's the third pool? The third pool is Saudi Arabia, uh

the UAE. These are the states that are most under threat. And what has Saudi

Arabia done just in the last week? They've gone to cooperate more with Pakistan. They have a security deal with

Pakistan. What does that mean? They're looking to Pakistan as much or maybe

even more than the United States as their guaranter of security. So all of

this coalition, it's not all siding with Iran right now. It's fragmenting. And

that's weakening America. So what happens next? You know, as President Trump wants to

What Happens Next If No One Backs Down

do, call the war off. That's not going to put us back to February 27. Iran has

20% of the world's oil. It's going to be able to have uh 75 billion hundred

billion of of revenues here over the next year. And also those deeply buried

caves and tunnels where they have their drones uh that can be used to fashion nuclear weapons. within a year Iran

could have nuclear weapons and we can't stop it. So if we pull back you can start to see that Iran's power is going

to grow internally. Uh but then even more than that its relationships with

Russia, its relationships with China will start to move closer together

against America. And you see this happening from the moment almost the first several days of

the war. Russia almost immediately offered Iran military targeting

information to target US ships. That's why our our carriers are so far away.

It's because Russia has the ability to see those carriers, tell Iran where they are, and if those carriers get too

close, man, they're going to be smashed. But it can get worse than that, Stephen, because as this power grows over time,

as these incentives for uh China, Russia, and Iran to cooperate against

America grow over time, Iran has control now of 20% of the world's oil. Russia

has 11% of the world's oil. That means there can be either formal or tacic

cooperation to take 30% of the world's oil off the global market. Let China

soak up a whole lot of that. And that can truly produce mega economic

consequences for America, for Europe. And why are they not going to do that?

Because they're nice guys. Is that really what we're counting on now? Russia, Putin is not going to want to

wreck America's economy because he has a a a bond with Donald Trump. What do you

Iran Has Been Seriously Underestimated

think the fundamental flawed assumption was at the start of all of this from the United States?

That Iran was was was weak on its last legs and all we had to do was uh push it

over the edge of a cliff and it was just a matter of just one more push and then the people would rise up and

yeah, we have painted a picture of Iran um as beaten down as the reason it's not

retaliating very much is they have no capability to retaliate. And I tell you

tell you this um Stephen, so I' I've been in big debates here at uh the Council on Foreign Relations in New York

where I've literally been the only person on the stage to stand up and warn that this picture of Iran is is is way

too negative. There was a a widpread, I think, false assumption across the

foreign policy community. no one willing to really stand up and challenge it very strongly that Iran was basically

collapsing on its own. This was always in my view underestimating the power of

Iran. And you say, well, where does my view come from? It came from the modeling of the bombing. What would

happen as this went forward? And none of these elements of Iran's power were ever

knocked out. When I look through the response to the last conversation, the the audience had lots of different types

Is US Intelligence Reliant On Israel?

of questions. So, I'm going to try and represent some of the audience's questions to try and bring them into the conversation. One of them was about

Israel's role in this. And I thought it might actually link to what you just said about where we get our intelligence

from that informs the decisions we make because there are some people that are skeptical that the intelligence is coming from Israel and that therefore

that it might not be as accurate as if it was coming from our own sources. I would say Israel has been playing the

role of diplomatic spoiler. So in the 12-day war when last June when the US

bomb fore we've been focusing on that that happened in the middle of the 12-day war. Donald Trump said he was

going to negotiate with a certain set of Iranians and literally the next day uh

36 hours later Israeli air power killed them

killed the negotiators. we were set to negotiate with. This was totally

spoiling the idea of a diplomatic outcome because they were dead. So, you

couldn't have a negotiated outcome. Now if we come to February 28, who dropped

the first bombs that killed the supreme leader that uh killed those other several dozen doves that he was meeting

with? Donald Trump um as as many of our governments have um describes that you

had a balance of hawks and doves inside of the Iranian government. And uh the

idea here is with leadership decapitation is well if you kill uh the hawks then the doves will just be the

ones left. We did the opposite or more correctly the bombing was started by

Israel on February 28. we came in behind. And in fact, Secretary Rubio,

our Secretary of State, explained a few days later that um uh Israel basically

backed us in a corner because Israel said, "We're going to kill that Supreme Leader whether you like it or not, and

that is going to maybe lead to attacks on your military bases, so you better prepare an air campaign to come behind."

and Rubio said that's what happened because again just before the 20 February 28 bombing we're negotiating

with Iran and we're killing the very people that Trump was saying are the

ones we wanted to negotiate with the ones who were going to help move Iran

closer to the American position that was Israel as spoiler so there's this individual called Ali

Laurajani the former secretary of Iran's supreme national security council and he was killed killed in an Israeli le air

strike on March 17th, 2026. Trump claimed on True Social that I can't say

his name, but I'm going to try. Ljani was the primary contact for a 10-point peace proposal that Trump had called

workable and a basis for a real agreement. Trump suggested that the strike was poorly timed when Israel

killed him and complained that Israel's lone wolf actions were complicating his ability to wrap up the war on his own

terms. He famously posted that he was inches away from the biggest deal in history before the assassination reset

the clock. So this would be the third instance then of Israel as diplomatic spoiler. What

you're hearing from Trump's own mouth is he thought he uh was close to a working

relationship maybe not a full deal with a certain set of individuals in this case Ojani. And what did Israel do when

they found out about it? They killed that person. And yes, I I understand there's issues of intelligence, but you

know, most of us don't have a clearance, so we can't talk about that. So, let's talk about the actual public description

that we've heard from. Prime Minister Netanyahu over the last several years. The public description is that Iran is

simply a paper tiger. That that um Israel has been dominating Iran,

knocking out its air defenses, launching other attacks here in 2024.

The rhetoric that's coming publicly has been painting the picture of Iran as a

weak and and not just weaken but basically It's down on its last

legs and all you need is a final coupigra. That has been Prime Minister Netanyahu's language.

What If This Turns Into A Ground War

The other thing that the audience wanted to know is they wanted more specifics on stage three.

Yes. Yes. And is stage three happening? We talked last time about ground troops. It's very important and I I've been saying this on

the Substack and my and my ex to follow the key indicators here of deployment, not follow just what's occurring with

the rhetoric of our leaders. Um, and the key thing to to know is that if you're

going to um weaken Iran with ground power, there's only a few ways you can

get that ground power into Iran. You could try to come through Pakistan, but

Pakistan actually is Iran's ally who gave Iran the 600 centerfuges in 2002 to

start developing its enrichment program. So, and Pakistan has 100 nuclear weapons or so. So, I don't think we're doing

this uh here. You could try to do it with Afghanistan, but notice you'd have to get all the troops in Afghanistan.

That's not working. You could also go to Azerbaijan. That's up there. Notice on the first day of the war there was a

missile that hit Azerbaijan and people on CNN there weren't what what's going on here. It's just a random in fact I

think uh our our our public statement on that day was this shows how how

incoherent uh the Iran leadership is. That's not what I saw. What I saw is they understood that Azeraijan was

always thought to be a staging area to go to Thran. And so if you're going to

take Thrron with a division or two, you would really want to have your forces

start here from Azerbaijan. Now, so far though, that's not happening. Azarbaian said, "Nope, don't count on us. We're

not getting in the middle of this." Now, we're back to why would you start to think about Marines uh to take territory

here on the coasts of Iran? So inside Iran where the straight of Hermuz is

that's the that's the beginning of it. You would start there around inside Iran around the straight of Hormuz as a beach

head. There's some photos which I'll throw up on the screen showing what the terrain around the straight of Hormuz looks like and it's it is quite shocking.

It's it's a moonscape and what you can see is that this is the most difficult

terrain for amphibious operations to operate in. What is amphibious operations? uh where

you have troops that are on ships on landing vessels. Uh just like Saving Private Ryan, they go from the water

onto the beach. You would also then have um some air power with some Osprey, but they're doing essentially the same

thing. They're coming onto the same beach. What's an Osprey? Uh an Osprey is a specialmade plane that

we've made for the Marines. And it's a plane that is a hybrid between a helicopter and a jet. And so the

propellers on the plane are able to rotate. So they can fly as a propeller

plane um here or a uh a cheapman's jet or they can actually um like a

helicopter. And that's really great if you want to fly fast to a beach and then go straight down.

So are you saying that you think they will put boots on the ground in the

straight of Hammoose? Let me just fill out this a little bit more. Okay. So the other big thing that

that the folks need to know is where is the oil? Iran's oil and here I'm drawing

a circle here. Iran's oil is all in this uh southwestern part almost all of it is

in the southwestern part of um of Iran. Kuwait's oil is all right here. Iraq has

couple puddles of oil. It has a big puddle of oil right here. Saudis oil is

all right here. You might uh try to land forces of division here in Iraq, in

Kuwait, uh in Saudi Arabia and come around this way. This is why knocking

out these bases as truly platforms here. This was why they I think they start on

day one. This wasn't just to hit the bases in retaliation. They are weakening

our ability. They're taking away different axes of attack. And this is why in the uh Substack I published three

days before the war, I'm specifically talking about Marines moving in limited

areas to take coastal regions as beach heads. What's a beach head? A beach head is where you have a a

foothold, a tow hold, where you're going to funnel in more forces after that. And

you are going to very likely want to control an area that's at least about

100 miles by 20 m in order to get behind all this uh this this mountainous

terrain. And what does that look like? The oil fields. Stephen, this is what

President Trump is almost surely talking about when he says he's going to take Iran's oil fields. What he is probably

um being given options for is how you could start in a limited way with an

amphibious, submarine, a limited assault to take a a small set of stretch of

beaches and then you would want to follow and take if you're going to start this at all, you're almost surely going

to want to just start to take the oil fields. And President Trump's been talking that way for years really. He

also said in a recent interview that if it was up to him, he would go and take the oil. But he said the American people

weren't like that. And he said it once and then he said it again and then he said it again. This was during a press conference on Monday, April 6th. He

said, "If it were up to me, I would take the oil. I would keep it all for ourselves and make a lot of money because to the victor belong the spoils.

But people in the country sort of say just win and come home." And I'm okay with that too. And he said that from the

interview that I was watching twice, which made me think that he really wants to go take the oil. But if he does put

troops on the ground in Iran, it just creates a clearer target for

those drone strikes. It creates a clearer target for those drone strikes. But what people maybe are not fully

understanding is the political consequences of the deaths of those Marines. Yeah,

most people are assuming if those Marines go in and die, this will make

America run away. It'll be like a punch in the face and we'll run away. That's not likely to be what happens. Again,

this is my area of what happens when you have military force in politics come

together. You need to understand that when those Marines go in and say hundreds die or or

so over time, there will be 36% of the public that will have supported that.

That 36% is going to see those Marines died for them. That 36% is likely to

double down in their commitment because otherwise they died for nothing. Now,

the 50% 59% excuse me, who's opposed to the war, they'll still be pretty hotly

opposed to the war. I'm not saying they're going to move toward the war, Stephen. What I'm saying is you have a

Republican president supported by 36% of of the Republicans here, almost no

Democrats. If you start to actually have deaths here, this is going to lead to a

bigger version of we can't withdraw now. we must quote finish the job otherwise

they will have died for nothing. This is what happened in Vietnam. In Vietnam in

the early stages you will see that it's sticky up the support for the war. It

takes a while to go down. And why does it take so long to go down? It's because

of exactly what I'm saying. The politics of this of the death of our troops in

battle does not lead to we cut and run. It leads to we double down for the honor

of the troops. That's why I'm saying we start this even in a small way. Even

car. It doesn't really matter where you start it, but once you have those ground

forces go in and they start to take casualties, you're probably in for the sixmonth ground war minimum. It looks

A Civilization Could Die Tonight

like they're going to try and avoid that outcome. It looks like they're doing everything in their power, America, to

avoid a scenario where they have to send troops in. The the threats that have come out of Donald Trump's truth social

posts really talk about I mean, look, I'll read this one here. It says, "A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't

know what will happen, but it probably will." Um, and all a lot of the tweets are Can we just focus on that one, the

civilization, because it's much that was a few days ago. A lot of people are already trying to move past it. This has

much more importance and endurance than I think we're understanding now. So,

first of all, that statement that President Trump said that he will end an

entire civilization in one night, uh, we need to understand this is not a drunk

at a bar. This is the president of the United States who has at his disposal

thousands of nuclear weapons that could in fact achieve that. And let me just explain how hair triggered these are. We

have 500 Minutemen 3 missiles. They have warheads between 100 kilotons and 300

kilotons which is multiple times more powerful than Hiroshima Nagasaki each

one of them. and they can be retargeted within 45 minutes. That's what it takes

to retarget the gyroscopes. And then it takes about 25 minutes for them to hit

Iran. So when the president of the United States is saying this, he's only one of a handful of people in the world

who could pull who could actually make this credible. Second point is that is the most declared statement of genocidal

intent we've ever seen from an American president. No American president has

threatened to end a civilization before, which is at the heart of the genocide treaties in 1948. The intent to commit

genocide. Harry Truman, people will say, "What do you mean? We had Harry Truman. We bomb we we bombed Hiroshima

Nagasaki." Go and look at his statement on Hiroshima. Harry Truman. He did not say he was ending Japan as a

civilization. He pulled back and said it was about to destroy Japan's military

power. What President Trump has done by making those statements is he's

persuading all 92 million Iranians that he is willing to kill them and he has

the power to kill them. And yes, he pulled back from killing them on Tuesday. And yes, he may not have used

nuclear weapons on Tuesday, but if any other leader had said that, if imagine

Vladimir Putin stands up and says he's going to end American civilization

tonight, he's got the weapons to be able to do that. Are we just going to sit back and say, "Oh, yeah, he didn't do

it. He must not have meant it." No. That would mobilize enormous anger against

Vladimir Putin in the United States, even among Democrats. And my point here, Stephen, is before uh this war started,

we had a real pro-democracy movement in Iran. And on your show, I told you this

was going to fade. This was one of the predictions I made to you said this is going to fade over time. You're going to

see nationalism bonding the society and the regime closer together. President

Trump is bonding them together like never before. If you're one of the pro-democracy

individuals here, movement in Iran, where are you going to go for protection? Are you going to go to

Donald Trump who's threatening to kill you with essentially nuclear weapons? Or

are you going to go to your own government? This is going to hasten the support, increase the support for Iran

developing nuclear weapons. the pro-democracy movement is now likely to

support this. On that point, one of the questions and one of the points raised by the audience

What This War Means For Ordinary Iranians

last time we had the conversation was really we didn't spend enough time talking about the 90 plus million people

that live in Iran. Yeah. That are often many of them caught amongst all of this absolute chaos. And

I I was looking at a bunch of messages from people that are living in Iran. Um I'll read some of them from ordinary

citizens. Um, I'm not great at math, but where will the money, the resources, and the experts come from to build a country

that ordinary people spent decades trying to build? From the This is a different person. From the beginning of the war until

today, we have been bombarded. Not only are we not one step closer to freedom, from what I can see, we are miles away

from it. From another person in Iran, a whole civilization will die tonight,

never to be brought brought back again. This has deeply terrified me.

It's it's it raises really the question a lot of this disc discourse doesn't speak much to 90 plus million people

that are living there and that are having to exist under this terror. And like the best way that I could conceptualized it is I I I imagined if I

had woken up one day and Vladimir Putin or some other leader around the world had said that they were potentially

going to end the civilization that I live in, the country that I live in tonight, how would I be feeling? And if

I was hearing bombs go off all the t time, how would I be feeling? Um, and if things were escalating when me and my

family lived, how would I be feeling? And it is chilling to think about. It's

chilling because this is now moving the needle inside of Iran to make the

ordinary person on the street uh even the pro-democracy movement willing to

tolerate Iran killing Americans because we're killing them and we're

saying we're going to do it even worse and we're say even beyond that we're saying at the whim of a president who

wakes up thinking Maybe this will help his save his presidency. He is willing

to uh uh kill the entire civilization of a country because he thinks maybe this

is going to be his off his golden uh offramp to get out of this problem for himself personally. And by the way, we

we in our country when al-Qaeda attacked us on 9/11, there was tremendous fear.

There would be more attacks by al-Qaeda in the weeks afterwards. There was just much fear. And I've done the studies of

the American public opinion on this. It's the fear of Muslims killing

Americans that's driving the support for the Iraq war. If this is happening to

Americans, you can only imagine what's going to happen to the ordinary Iranians. And they've been subjected not

to just one attack, 40 days of attack. So for the average Iranian person that

opposes the regime in Iran and has been living under terror and oppression for

many, many decades. What do you think happens next for them? They're they're the group of people that

I that I think about and care about the most in this equation. We spend a lot of time talking about US power and we talk about lots of these other regional

partners, but there's like 90 odd million people stuck right in the heart of this that often don't really have a voice. Their life expectancy will go down in

measurable years. So if we had taken out the electric power, so this is something I know quite a bit about in the 1990s. I

was uh working for the Air Force literally under uh my boss was John Warden, the leader of the leadership

decapitation school. And he brought in, not classified at all, he brought in engineers of electric power plants to

teach us how to take down electric power. The electric power grid in Iran,

it looks like a network. And that network has big nodes. That's what

President Trump said he would he's going to take off the big power plants that produce uh in the 10 20 30 uh megawws uh

range. And they're probably about 130 nodes altogether. But if you just take out the top 10, you're probably going to

take down the entire network because the top 10 nodes are distributed in the

right places to support different uh electric power in different regions of the country. You have two choices in a

target in targeting sense. You can take out the transformers in which case you knock it out for a week or two and it is

inconvenient. And yes, there will be some people who will die. There were human chains around those targets by the

way. those people would die. But if you took out the hulls, the generating hulls,

what's that? That's the giant turbines that are huge. There is no backup to those. Each of

those is specially made. You will be knocking the out that generation for 6

months, 12 months, maybe 18 months at a minimum. What that's going to do is stop

all dialysis in the country. that's going to stop all um the uh heart

surgeries and other life-saving surgeries that are going to happen in the country. It's going to take out all

the food refrigeration in the country. So, you know, when power goes out in

your house and goes out for 10 minutes or or or an hour, it's not so bad. You

don't really notice it. But when it goes out for 2 days or 3 days or a week, all the food in your refrigerator spoils and

you can't eat it fast enough. you can't give it away fast enough because it's happening to everybody on your block.

Well, that's what would happen across the country. So, there's going to be an enormous amount of spoilage of food and

that refrigeration then is not going to be available to come back. And so, you're going to have enormous hunger

problems here. So, people that were already malnourished, they are going to be susceptible to more disease. So you

will end up lowering the life expectancy in a measurable way of that population.

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Enjoy. So, there's been a lot of talk in the recent days about a ceasefire and

Is The US Locked Into A Long War?

Trump said he was going to he said tweet these horrific things about ending a whole civilization tonight and then at

the final hour said that they had proposed a 10-point plan and that there was going to be a twowe ceasefire. What

do you think was actually going on there? The collision of stages three and four. So what you are now seeing is we can we

we are now understand we're in it for the long haul which means we can't go

back to February 27. We can't undo the last 40 days. It's just not going to be possible. So there's only two futures

going forward. Future number one is that ground war option and we've talked about how terrible that is and of course

that's obviously bad bad cost. But future number two is Iran as an emerging

fourth center of world power. And that is incredibly damaging to America's

power. And that is going to be damaging to President Trump's legacy. Is there not another option where Iran,

their leadership says, "Okay, we won't make nuclear weapons. Okay, we'll be friends. Okay, it's all over. Please

stop bombing us. Let's go for peace." So, so my response to that is I've been

studying the history of international politics for over 35 years. I know quite

a bit about uh great power politics and regional power politics going back 300 years. I have never seen a country at

the regional level or at the great power level surrender power. Did America after

World War II decide, well, yes, uh, we we have the capability to build nuclear

weapons, but, you know, we want to get along with the Russians who helped us defeat Germany. So, what we're going to

do is we're going to actually have a a a deal, an arms control agree. In fact, this was proposed, by the way, um, and

we rejected it, which is we're just going to not go down that road. We're going to surrender the power advantage

that we have uh here so that we can be cooperative with the Soviets who had

just worked with us to defeat Nazi Germany. So that's not going to happen. We there's no evidence in history in our

history. We've never surrendered power even when it might have been a good idea. We haven't done that. They're not

going to do this. They're not going to do that. No, they're not going to do this. You already see this in the in why the uh

the ceasefire is breaking down. so fast. It's breaking down so fast because

essentially President Trump, he didn't just declare victory. He said that

Iran's uh not going to have all this power that I'm explaining to you. And what Iran did is almost immediately

assert, oh yes, we are. They they've come right back right away. If President

Trump is expecting that out of the goodness of their heart, they're gonna surrender emerging world power,

this is this is just a fantasy. Uh it's not going to happen. Uh he wouldn't

surrender power. Why is he going to expect Iran's going to surrender power? So, I'm looking at this apparent

Iran’s 10-Point Plan Explained

10-point proposal submitted by Iran. Mhm. Um, and you you got to take this with a pinch of salt because there's

different reports about what this 10point proposal looks like, but it says that based on official releases from the Iranian state news agency, the IRA and

international reporting, the 10-point proposal from Iran to the United States was for a permanent ceasefire, number

one, end attacks on allies, a complete halt to Israel and US strikes across the region, specifically Lebanon, Iraq, and

Yemen. Number three, reopen the Straight of Hummos. Iran will allow safe passage through the Straight of Hongos. collect

tolls. Iran will charge a fee, reportedly $2 million, for each ship passing through the straight. Revenue

sharing with Aman, which is toll revenues, will be split with Oman as custodians of the strait. Number six,

lift the sanctions, the complete removal of all US primary and secondary sanctions. Release assets. Number seven,

the immediate return of all frozen Iranian funds held abroad. Number eight, the right to enrich uranium. US

acceptance of Iran's right to domestic uranium enrichment while Iran commits to

not seeking nuclear weapons. Number nine, war reparations, full compensation paid to Iran for reconstruction costs

from the bombing. And lastly, number 10, the termination of all UN resolutions

against the regime and a new binding UN Security Council resolution to enforce this deal. Now, listen, I don't know a

lot about what I'm talking about, so that's the disclaimer. However, it sounds like a good deal for Iran in many

respects. on every single point and it also validates Iran as an emerging world power. So all of those points in the

details if you think of them as a flow diagram all 10 of them are adding up to

validation of Iran as uh top in the hierarchy in the Persian Gulf. So why is

The Shifting Global Power Balance

it so important to be the number one strongest state in the world? It's because in the last 300 years, whether

it was Britain, the United States, or whether it's China in the future, the number one state typically dictates the

rules of how the world systems operate. Well, what you're seeing with Iran is they want to dictate the rules in the

Persian Gulf. And that's what that is. Now, if we pull this over, which I love

your props, uh here, that is good. So right now you see that even though it's the United States is just um uh that

lone flag it has this higher weight and what this is reflecting is uh the United

States as uh the number one country in the world the most powerful. Now if you also then add um this over here. So this

would be Israel. You can see this is the world that Netanyahu is depicting um

before on February 27th. But the actual world I just want to point out is a

little bit different. The actual balance of power is closer to this. It's closer to the United States and then we have

China and we have uh Russia. There are three centers of world power and in 1990

um it used to be by the way uh just the United States and the Soviet Union. Then

Russia, the Soviet Union collapses. This is when the United States is the sole superpower, the unipolar moment. It

immediately shifts like this from 1989 to 1992. Dramatic shift. However, along

the way in the last 30 years, you see um this changing. And what's changing?

Russia actually still is weak. It's still about 2% of the world's GDP. That's not really what's changing.

What's really changing is is China is now much much much more powerful. It's

still not as powerful as the United States, but notice that we were here in 1990 and now the balance is starting to

be uh to come like this. Well, if we start to add Iran as a center of world

power, uh, now we're starting to change this in a much different way. Now these

three powers are starting together in concert to become more powerful than the

United States uh especially with respect to energy and energy matters so much

because it's an underlying component for our economic growth that GDP the way um

uh we measure uh great power Stephen for decades and decades we've used static

indicators GDP how big is your military How many nuclear weapons you have that

all rests on the productive capacity of your country which is why the productive

capacity is so important. What does that turn on? It turns a lot very heavily on

oil. Oil today is the commodity. If you

lose access to oil within weeks or a month and a half, this has dramatic

cliff effects on your economy. Now, if you lose access to semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, that's bad. And it's

bad over time in particular, you lose access to oil. This is a cliff that you

we go off over six weeks, eight weeks because there's not enough uh storage

capacity of anybody in the world to make up for 20% 30% loss of world oil.

Why US Oil Prices Are Rising

So on this point of oil, the US don't get their oil from the straight of Hammoose. We don't. But it's a global market and a

lot of the uh price of oil that we're going to pay is going to be determined

by the global price of oil because oil is a funible commodity. It's like a uh

water that runs through the whole system. When there's a shortage, it drives the price of all of us up.

Okay. So, I've got a graph here showing the price of oil. And you can see I'll throw it up on the screen. You can see it's been climbing ever since the 27th

of February. So, this will impact Americans at the pump as well. Oh my gosh. And you see it in the pump

already. Where I am in Chicago, I'm paying some I was paying something like 310 a gallon. Now, the last time I I

filled up, it was 460. It's a bit of a misnomer to think that we can as America

get away scot-free with everybody else losing oil and we're not going to we're

not going to pay a price. Now to be clear, we will have supply of oil. The

price will go up. This will increase inflation. This will probably increase

bond prices over time. Uh the bond price, the bond is the loans that essentially

any uh corporation companies or the University of Chicago takes out to

borrow money to operate. So the University of Chicago borrows uh has has

10-year bonds. This is essentially we're borrowing money and then we have to pay back that money plus an interest rate.

That's what the bond rate is. It's an interest rate on on borrowed money. Well, if that interest rate goes from 4%

on a 10-year bond um to 5% or 6 or 7%

the costs of the interest just goes up massively and everybody will feel that in various

ways. the US government right now, the biggest uh budget item in the US

government budget is the cost of interest for the debt of the $40 trillion in debt. We're going to have to

shrink social security. You're going to have to shrink Medicaid. This is not notional, Stephen. Iran and uh Russia

together could have a tremendous impact on America's economy. This this is the

real thing. So with your balance of power analogy, this is where we where we could get to. This is where we could get to with the

next several years. I would say um probably two years out. I would say that America has an edge. And I'm trying to

depict it as it's like about a 25 or 30% edge from the combination of China and

Russia today. And China is gaining, but still it's actually slow yearbyear. So

you'll see a little bit of an uptick. So maybe going I'm trying to depict from say a third advantage for the United

States to maybe uh 30% 28% in the next four or 5 years. You add Iran to this

and then especially these combinations I'm describing where they can do things together. Now in the next several years

you're actually talking about uh the scales where these three are much are

stronger than America where I'm not talking about just America's losing it incrementally. You're getting abrupt

changes in the world balance of power. So, what happens now if Trump just pulls out? This is the world. Iran is an oil

hegeimon in the Persian Gulf. Uh, within a year or so, they're very likely to

have nuclear weapons. I'm saying the pro-democracy movement is going to be pounding the table to get nuclear weapons. They're going to want to deter

any uh idea from Trump of hitting them again. Um, and then I'm saying beyond that, you have the possibility of Iran

and Russia deciding to cooperate here to strangle uh and coers the United States.

And if the United States doesn't cowtow to them, then they can pull that oil off

the market. So, what should Trump do? Do you think if you were

If You Were Trump: What Would You Do?

president of the United States, what would you do right now? So when I was here 40 days ago, we had the same question. And what I said was we needed

to accept uh that there would be a deal and we were going to have to accept that the deal that Iran was offering us on

February 27 where they would get to keep their 3.5% enriched uranium wasn't going

to be good enough. We were going to have to lift oil sanctions. We're going to have to do various things to sweeten the

deal, so to speak. Well, notice actually Scott Besson did some of that. He did lift the but the power of Iran has grown

so much Stephen that's not good enough and that's what you're seeing with why this deal is the ceasefire is starting

to break down from Iran's side. So what would you offer Iran? I think a enforced

military containment of Israel would be a serious uh card that America could

play that I think Iran would get Iran at least in a serious discussion. I don't

know if it would be enough. I want to be careful here that I don't say, "Well, this will certainly uh be the deal Iran

will take." But we have to imagine if Iran has world power, what is it going

to take to get Iran to surrender some of that? Well, one thing would be to have confidence that Israel is not going to

keep attacking it or its allies. But then they're not going to believe

that after what's happened. Well, it would have to go through. You'd have to make it enforceable. It's not going to be good enough to try to

promise that. What thing President Trump could do since the Republicans control both houses of Congress is President

Trump could push through a bill through Congress that says if Israel attacks Iran or uh could even extend to to

Lebanon, but let's at least start with Iran. Um all funds for Israel, both

military and economic, will be cut off through the end of Trump's presidency. Now, that passes through uh both

chambers of Congress. President Trump signs it. Now you're talking. Now we actually have as much teeth as you could

ever have of a military containment of Israel. So presumably in such a scenario, Iran

If Israel Joins The Nuclear Treaty

would continue to enrich uranium because they've now had a taste of what can happen to them if they're powerless.

Well, let me extend this um a little bit more. So let's talk about article two of the deal that's going to go through the

Congress. Israel joins the NPT and that is the quidd proquo for getting Iran to

accept the on-site inspections of its 3.5% enriched uranium. So, Israel gets

to have um its Deamona nuclear power plant where it has plutonium for its

nuclear weapons that's measured by the non-prololiferation treaty, the IAEA.

Those are the inspectors. And Iran will have on-site inspections at the

various locations we're talking about. But the second part of this, Stephen, would be quit proquo. If Iran is going

to be subject to on-site verification, on-site monitoring, Israel, which is now

not part of the non-prololiferation treaty, already has nuclear weapons.

It's going to have to accept that this can't be a one-sided deal going forward.

It's going to have to be a more balanced situation when it comes to monitoring um

nuclear weapons capabilities. So, what does that mean specifically that Iran would be able to monitor Israel's nuclear weapons

uh through the IAEA? That's right. That would be the material for the weapons, not the weapons themselves. So,

they already have weapons. So, what's there to monitor? Oh, no, no, no. Right now, the number of Israel's uh Israel's nuclear weapons is

not known. We have vague counts. The reason Israel is not part of the NPT is

not because it doesn't matter. It provides the kind of calc the kind of detailed information through the IAEA

that would be useful for estimating the size of Israel. Israel Netanyahu is

going to want to give that information to Iran. This isn't about want to anymore. Stephen, what we're talking about is

what are the offer? You've asked me the hard question. What is an offramp to this tradeoff between the ground war and

Iran as the fourth center of world power? And I said, okay, there is an actual off-ramp here. But notice that

the hesitation now is politics. And that's what I'm trying to explain that that I study the interaction of military

action and politics. And I'm with you. I I don't think Israel will likely they've

been trying to spoil these other deals. I don't think Israel is going to allow this to occur. But now then we're right

back to the tradeoff that nobody wants to confront. So So what do you think is going to happen?

What Experts Think Happens Next

What I think is that we are going to go back and forth between stage three and stage four for months.

What's stage three and stage four? So stage three are preparations for the ground war. Yep. And Iran emerging as a force center of

world power. I think both of these are likely to go on for months. I think that

uh for stage three, the ground war option to truly be taken off the table, you would need to see America

withdrawing its military forces. You would need to see all the carriers leave

the region and go back to uh other parts of the world. You would need to see the

Marines that have been moved to the Gulf go back to Camp Pendleton in California,

go back to uh Japan. You would need to see the hundreds of aircraft like the F-35s, for example, that have been moved

to the region. They all need to go back to their pre-war locations. So, we're

going to bounce between stage three and stage four. Yep. That's the diagram. So, the new diagram I'm trying to

we just um I think there's still, if you pushed me on this last time, I still say

there's a 70% chance that we're going to start a ground operation. And it's not

because President Trump wants it. It's not because he's not trying to avoid it. It's because there's a trap. And the

trap that he's gonna face is, is he really willing to be the president where

under his presidency, Iran detonates a nuclear weapon to demonstrate it has nuclear power? From his rhetoric, and

listen, these are just the tweets. It seems like the alternate option he's considered when he talks about bombing

the infrastructure and bridges and roads and power plants is just completely decapitating the country and I think in

his own words, sending it back to the stone ages. will come back. This will come back, but it would be as I believe

the precursor to more ground operations, Stephen. So, I don't think that this

will be a case where you do the electric power targeting and then it's done. Finally, he's satisfied. He's pounded

them enough and walk away because you do the electric power targeting. You have

further incentivized 92 million. They still have the enriched uranium. You have 92 million people desperate now for

not just getting a nuclear weapon for deterrence, but for payback. And so you will find the pressure for the ground

war will be even more intense in the aftermath of all of that. This idea

they're going to be bombed back to the stone ages where we won't worry about them anymore. um they're going to be

this minor country that we will just ignore. As long as they have 1,000 lb of

60% enriched uranium, 10,000 lb of five and and 20% enriched uranium, um this is

this will just not be the case. So, you still think the most plausible probable outcome is that Trump ends up

sending ground troops in specifically to do two things? I think I remember you saying last time. One of them is to go and get the uranium. Yep.

And the second, I believe, is to defend the straight of Hormuz. Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep. I think I think

these are the two things that are on the table. And you think it's going to it's probably going to take several months.

I think it could go on Yes. for months because I think that you were going to see that there's going to be uh this

back and forth. And the way to monitor this so you can see is the timeline speeding up or slowing down is literally

the movement of the deployed troops. Don't track this by what the

negotiations are. Don't track this by what comes out of President Trump's mouth or even the Iranians mouth. Track

this by the movement of forces. That is the best indicator of what's going to

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What Iran Would Do With Nuclear Weapons

on this point where you said you don't think Trump would want to be the president that presided over Iran releasing a nuclear weapon. Is that

because if he pulled out now they would enrich the uranium and then maybe demonstrate it under his

that that's right. So the scenario that I have laid out I've laid this out to my classes for years. The idea of what Iran

would do with nuclear weapons a lot of people have an image and it's coming from the public so I understand why they

have it. People have been a lot of people have said this image where Iran gets a a nuclear weapon or two and that

what they do immediately is they blow up Tel Aviv with the first one and maybe New York with the second one. This is

just highly unlikely because what would happen is we would retaliate with nuclear weapons under that. uh here much

more plausible and everything I'm seeing from Iran has been completely supporting the idea that they're thinking this

through um uh uh strategically is you would want not to just have one working

nuclear weapon or even two. You want five. Ideally, you want 10, maybe even

15. This is what happened with North Korea. Because once you have, let's even say five, the most rational thing to do

is you detonate the first one as a detonated test. You test it on your own territory and then you listen for a week

while everybody says, "Well, they only had one. They were stupid. They don't have dot." And you detonate the second

one. And once you detonate the second one, just like when we hit Nagasaki after Hiroshima,

everybody will assume there's a lot more there. And that is how you actually

deter the United States from attacking you. And by the way, that's what effectively North Korea did. When

President Trump took office in 2016, North Korea was a major problem. We were talking about bombing North Korea and so

forth. And there's multiple reasons, but the big issues are that North Korea has

a lot of nuclear weapons. We're not going to be able to get them all. They have some other things they can do too

like like artillery on soul. But this isn't just North Korea and Trump decided

to be, you know, sort of best buds here. So the other route that played out in my

Has Trump Lost Control?

mind was that Trump would just keep bombing Iran to keep them weak. But again, that doesn't solve the straight

of Hammoose problem. Doesn't solve the uranium problem and doesn't solve the straight of Hormuz problem because if we knew where that

material was and we could just bomb it out of existence. I'm talking about the enriched uranium material. We would have

done this already. Which leads all roads to really the only solution being some kind of deal.

Absolutely. That's why the best thing to do is a deal with the military

containment of Israel. That's deal. The problem you have with such a deal if

when you're going into that deal is the enemy know that you don't really have a plan B. You don't have a plan B. That's

right. And so your negotiation position is very weak. That's why you That's why you're they're going to keep their 3.5%

enriched uranium no matter what. The problem we face here is if we were ever

going to get the 3.5% enriched uranium um to go away, we should never have

ripped up the Obama nuclear deal by Trump in 2018. They've been developing

ever since the Biden administration. He Trump one couldn't figure out how to stop the enriched uranium by by Iran.

Biden couldn't figure out how to stop it. Trump now has been trying to figure out how to stop it. And you know what?

It's not stoppable. It's not stoppable short of these options I'm laying out.

There's no way to get that material without ground forces, Stephen. And you're not going to send those ground

forces in just a thousand guys to get be it some postage stamp of an area for a

month or two trying to find that enriched uranium. This is just not realistic. Going to be a bigger option.

I think it's clear to me, you know, I do this podcast and ask these questions and have people on because I'm actually really trying to find answers for myself. And I think if I've arrived at

any conclusion from everything I've learned over the last couple of weeks, it's that I think Trump made a really big mistake. Um pro and that mistake

probably started when he ripped up Obama's deal. That's right. But it's clear that

Foraux was the really really big one. I think I think he's stuck. He is stuck.

I think he's stuck. I think he's facing several bad options going forward. So I

really have no idea what's going to happen. And well what you're going to what you will also watch Stephen back to politics here

is uh Trump right now we're not it's not just paper anymore who's saying he's

lost control he's losing power the world is saying that and this is going to

start to become the Republican party is going to say that and what this is going to do is it's going to incentivize Trump

even more probably to become more belligerent not to become calmer so as

Trump is becoming the lamest of lame ducks going forward because it's evident

he's losing power and as he loses power here on the international scene this

will mean he will lose power domestically as well and we'll never go to zero but it will be a slow decline

this is where the real sort of future is here why this is not simply a steady

state now this is why I won't make a prediction of what's going happen in September. We are not at a steady state.

It is an unstable balance here between three and four. Three and four.

What This Means For Europe

What do you think happens with Europe? I feel like Europe, you know, Europe aren't on either side of your scale here. You've got Iran, Russia, and China

on one end of the scale scale. You've got the US on the other. Europe and NATO, what happens? Are they going to

NATO is for all practical purposes dead? We're just writing its obituary. It's a

body in the morg already. Most people don't think that NATO is a political

alliance. NATO is much more than that. If there's an article 5, what that means, Stephen, is there's a military

operation with an American general at the top. And with article 5, the

American general tells the other count's militaries, including their nuclear

weapons, what to do. Now, if you're Britain and you have nuclear weapons and

or even if besides the nuclear weapons, if you're Germany, you don't have them, are you going to follow uh uh General

Kane's orders on anything at this point? I don't think so. So, article 5 is the document that all

the NATO countries have signed. No, it's the part of the NATO treaty which says if there's a NATO operations like in

Afghanistan, it's American general who orders all the

other countries militaries what to it's a hierarchy. So it's not a um a

collection where the countries get together and they have these big like uh

cooperative decisions. No, the Americans run the plan. They are the ones who organize the military operation. they

run the plan and they just assign the uh other countries uh roles the way they would um the army, the navy and the air

force inside of the Pentagon. What I'm saying is what you just saw with Iran is such a a horrible catastrophic failure

within just weeks. The idea that any Europeans are going to follow the orders

of an American general and and I don't even think this is going to be just under Donald Trump. I mean, I think for

years, I think this is just laughable. Trump was quite angry and scathing with his words about NATO. He said, "It's a

paper tiger and referred to them as cowards." And as we've been sat here today, you might be aware that NATO were

meeting with Trump today in Washington DC. And the NATO Secretary General Mark

Root said, "When it came time to provide the logistical and other support to the United States needed in Iran, some

allies were a bit slow, to say the least. In fairness, they were a bit surprised. To maintain the element of

surprise for the initial strikes, President Trump opted not to inform us ahead of time. But what I see when I

look across Europe today is allies providing a massive amount of support nearly without exception. Allies are

doing everything the United States is asking. They have heard and are responding to President Trump's request.

So, it sounds a little bit like an apology tour coming from NATO. Um, and the German chancellor has also made made

a comment saying that they do not want to split NATO. Well, they don't want American troops to

leave the um uh the European continent because that provides some deterrent to

Russia. That's what you're hearing there. But NATO was always had an

anchor. Remember we talked about anchors. The anchor in NATO was America's protection of European

security. What you're seeing when President Trump creates a problem, a

catastrophe the for the world and says he won't send American uh forces in to

the straight of Hormuz, but he wants the Europeans to send their forces into the

straight of Hormuz. This is the opposite of protection. He's making NATO

countries or European countries vulnerable and they're reacting to that

by saying we won't do it. According to diplomats, NATO secretary briefed member capitals today that Trump

is demanding concrete commitments within the next few days from NATO to help to secure the strait of Hormuz, which would

only make sense if you were doing phase three, the ground operation. So you

cannot secure the straight of H for H for H for H for H for H for H for H for H for H formuz only with air power. We if we could we already would. You can't

secure it only with naval power. If you could we already would. We have a much bigger navy, much bigger air forces than

any of those countries individually or even combined. The only reason you would

really want those uh forces from NATO is uh because you're planning on a bigger

ground operation and you're that's what you're seeing right there. And I don't think Europeans, let's not even talking

about the word NATO. I don't think the Europeans are likely to do it because you're seeing why would they, if they're

ever going to do it, Stephen, they would want Trump out of office. The number one thing that I don't think is going to

happen here is anybody's going to bail out Trump. It's political suicide really for a lot

of the European leaders. Political suicide for the Democrats to bail out Trump in our country. It's

going to start to become political suicide for even Republicans to bail out Trump. That's what you're going to start

to see in the fall. And it's going to be political suicide for the Japanese, for the Indians. This is the problem. Trump

caused the problem. He's, as I said on your show last time, he's going to become LBJ if he doesn't

uh take a deal soon. Well, that was 40 days ago, Stephen, and he still hasn't taken the deal. Not really. And he's

becoming LBJ. Nobody's going to want to be associated with him. Here in the UK, we have Karma as the

prime minister. And it appears to me that since he's come out and started

saying that he won't support Trump's war, he we won't send troops to the Middle East, it appears that that's

actually driven up his favorability amongst certain people. And it makes me think that actually, as we say, it's

it's political suicide for European leaders to send troops there because they will be they will lose the next

election in their country. I I think you put it exact excellent, Stephen. I I really can't improve on

that. Let me just say that a year ago with the tariffs um I started to do a

study of tracking how European support for America was starting to go into the

tank and that was with tariffs. Now what Trump has done is he's driven up the

price of oil. He's hurting their economies in a serious way and as that

actual damage occurs and it's still in the pipeline. it hasn't hit as strong as

it likely will in the next month. You are likely going to see that the publics

in Europe are going to become anti-American and it's not just going to be can't

support Trump anymore coming here. I had to pay the the visa the ETA and it it

took forever and what's happening here. We're getting some payback here on Americans. I think this next next time I

come to London, I'm not going to be surprised that the price of that visa is doubling or tripling. What is your closing highlevel remark

What Can The Average Person Do?

about all this stuff? And I guess I really want to focus it on on the average person who is going about their

life as a normal civilian in any of these countries that are affected. What is the highle point of view here that we

we need to close upon? The high level point of view is we're about to start

think think seriously about the election and what we need to do is not just

choose bounce back and forth between uh Republican and Democrat and actually

Britain is a is a case study of what can happen if you bounce back and forth here. We need to start to really support

strong stable policies that will empower the middle. The problem that we face,

Stephen, is we're moving back and forth from really uh ideas here that uh one

year we we really don't like what Biden's doing and now we have the radical wing on the other side and we

certainly don't like that. Well, if we keep going back and forth here between two uh extreme alternatives, we'll just

get different versions of bad outcomes. And it's not making things better. It's a cycle that's making it solution.

The solution is the public needs to hear that every election, every choice, we

are uh we have an opportunity here to focus on the more centrist candidates.

And this is something that we really can make decisions about. And it's just

simply the case that if we don't do that, what you're going to get is you're going to get back and forth bouncing

around. And I don't think a third party here, these ideas are really very meaningful. This really comes down to

talking to the public. And it's one of the big reasons, Stephen, I'm going to the podcast world because you remember I

I've advised every White House and so forth. We've got to get beyond that. We've got to actually talk to real

people and this is what you do and increasingly I'm doing it and I really

believe that the podcast network is an opportunity to do that. But it doesn't

mean that it forces people to vote Democrat or Republican. We've got to understand that we we can't just keep

thinking about uh well, okay, now we're really mad at Donald Trump and we're going to get the independents and now

they're going to vote with the Democrats if all we do is end up getting another extreme on the other side because what

you're going to do is you're going to keep pissing off the middle and they're going to keep bouncing back and forth.

And round after round, we've been doing that now um for years in the United

States. And what does it look like? It keeps getting worse. keeps getting worse. What are you suggesting the solution is?

Vote for the centrist candidate all the way through. Yes. Yes. It's a very simple thing, but it's not going to

happen unless we talk about this because it does mean that sometimes the centrist

candidate is the person, the woman on the other side. And if we're not willing to do that, then we're really condemning

ourselves to this cycle. I'm going to explain more about it. It's it's a version of the escalation trap gone

domestic. It's called the legitimacy shock cycle and I'll be talking more about this in September. So the trap I'm

talking about here with violence and politics isn't just international and

you end up with traps here domestically as well. And I'd like to close with a few thoughts for the people in Iran. I

think ever since I've put myself mentally um in a situation where there was a world leader saying that they were

going to annihilate my civilization and there was bombs going off. You know, we're currently filming this in our London studio, but if there was bombs

going off around the studio and there was threat that someone was going to annihilate civilization, it's quite unthinkable for me how I would I would

be functioning. And it immediately, I think, shines a light on the the mental health and psychology of the people in Iran right now and how they must be

feeling. So, I think that's probably an important message to share cuz we can

sometimes get a little bit caught up in the hypotheticals of war and strategy and all these kinds of things, but at

the end of the day, there's 90 plus million people in Iran that are right in the middle of this and we we're sat in

this very warm, cushy London studio. So, well, there's a bond that is occurring

between the middle 60% of the American public and the 92 million in Iran. Yeah,

they don't like the radicalism and on on either side. And what you were

what you were vocalizing, Stephen, is the frustration that our politics has

been locked up by the extremes. And I suspect the 92 million in Iran are

feeling almost exactly the same thing. Their choices now are being locked into extremes. And that is that bond here

that you're trying to vocalize. I believe it's valuable to vocalize it because this is what it means to empower

the people and this is what it means to be a democracy which is that we actually talk about not just the other side is

bad and we're always good is we we talk about where the future really should go

and the idea that we're even imagining the possibility of a $40 trillion in

debt country getting rocked by um Iran and Russia here who have their own

reasons for wanting to hurt us. We may not fully realize that, but but we really hurt Russia in the '9s here with

our ideas of shock therapy, and we made out like bandits, by the way. Uh so that

the we we really do have some uh real growing bonds at the social level.

Professor Robert P, thank you so much. It's a pleasure to speak to you once again. And uh this is such an evolving situation, so I feel like we might end

up talking again at some point in the future when things play out. Hopefully, you know, one can only hope uh for peace

for for everybody situation every day. That's my number one thing. Just ask my wife. And by the way, will

you stop being so charismatic? Because my wife, when we listen to this, she turns my voice off. All she wants to do,

Stephen, is listen to you. Is she American? I think Americans. I'm just You have And you've made me up

my game. That's so funny. Well, thank you so much for your time and uh you've put a lot of time into explaining this to layman's

like me and it's really helped turn the the lights on to some degree. I'll I'll be honest, it's turn the lights on and

with the lights on I am confused. I'm confused about

which path is productive and most beneficial to society and humanity. And even though I

can see more clearly now about the dynamics of all of these potential pathways, none of them seem that great.

So that's where I'm going to leave it for today. But we'll pick up this conversation again soon when more information comes in.

That's right. And let's hope it's not as much as a trap as as I'm as I'm painting it. But if it is, then it's really even

more important that when we get to the fall, we don't mislead ourselves into

into thinking that this is just um temporary, that it's all going to be solved quickly. We need to understand

that we're going down some major major roads here. And this situation, as bad

as it is, notice that it's actually worse than it was a month ago when we were here. It's worse, Stephen. And the

reason it's worse is we didn't head it off enough at the past 40 when we when I

was here four weeks ago. If President Trump had taken some of the deals that we were talking about then we wouldn't

be anywhere near where we are today. So as bad as that negotiating position I'm

say of can militarily containment of of Israel I realize people are saying oh my god could never happen. Well think about

the things that could never happen that are happening right now. This is the better pathway now. And if we don't take

this pathway now, we come back in a month or two, it will be worse.

Thank you, Robin. We're done. Thank you. Thank you so much. YouTube have this new crazy algorithm

where they know exactly what video you would like to watch next based on AI and all of your viewing behavior. And the

algorithm says that this video is the perfect video for you. It's different for everybody looking right now. Check

this video out and I bet you you might love it.

You can purchase Robert’s book, ‘Our Own Worst Enemies: America and the Age of Violent Populism’, here: https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/Ajkhyts 

==

==

로버트 페이프(Robert Pape) 교수의 대담을 담은 <이란 전쟁 전문가: 가장 위험한 단계가 지금 시작된다 (4단계)>에 대한 요약 및 평론을 작성하였다.

---

## 요약: 에스컬레이션 함정과 출구 없는 전쟁

### 1. 21년의 워게임과 현실화된 위기

시카고 대학교의 로버트 페이프 교수는 지난 21년간 이란과의 가상 전쟁을 모델링해 왔으며, 최근 발생한 물리적 충돌의 양상이 자신의 예측과 거의 일치한다고 주장한다. 그는 과거 베트남 전쟁의 실패 원인을 분석했던 경험을 토대로, 압도적인 공군력을 보유한 강대국이 왜 전략적으로 패배하는지에 집중한다. 페이프에 따르면 미군은 이란의 핵 시설이나 군사 기지를 정밀 타격하여 파괴할 수는 있지만, 이미 확보된 농축 우라늄이나 지하 깊숙이 숨겨진 드론 및 미사일 무기고를 완전히 제거하는 데는 한계가 있다.

### 2. 에스컬레이션 함정의 4단계

페이프는 현재의 상황을 <에스컬레이션 함정>의 단계별 전개로 설명한다.

• 1단계: 미국이 정권 교체나 지도부 제거를 목적으로 폭격을 가하지만, 오히려 이란 정권은 더 강화된다.

• 2단계: 강화된 이란 정권이 호르무즈 해협 통제 등 수평적 에스컬레이션으로 보복한다.

• 3단계: 해협 통제권을 되찾기 위해 미국이 지상군 투입(해병대 등)을 고려하는 단계다.

• 4단계: 지상전으로 진입하거나, 이란이 세계 제4의 전력 거점으로 부상하며 핵무장을 완성하는 최종 단계다.

### 3. 전략적 오판과 이란의 강화

미국과 이스라엘의 근본적인 오판은 이란을 <곧 무너질 약한 국가>로 저평가한 데 있다. 트럼프 행정부의 압박과 이스라엘의 비밀 작전(협상가 암살 등)은 외교적 해결책을 방해하는 <외교적 방해꾼> 역할을 했으며, 결과적으로 이란 내 민주화 운동을 약화시키고 민족주의적 결집을 초래했다. 이란은 현재 러시아, 중국과 밀착하며 에너지 시장의 30%를 통제할 수 있는 지정학적 영향력을 행사하고 있다.

### 4. 경제적 파급력과 인도적 비극

이 전쟁은 단순히 군사적 충돌에 그치지 않고 세계 경제에 <절벽 효과>를 가져온다. 기름값 상승은 인플레이션을 유발하고 미국의 부채 이자 부담을 가중시켜 사회보장제도 축소로 이어진다. 한편, 이란 내부에서는 전력망 파괴로 인해 냉장 시설과 의료 시스템이 붕괴되면서 무고한 시민들의 생존이 위협받고 있다. 페이프는 트럼프의 <문명 절멸> 위협이 이란인들에게 핵무장 필요성을 더 강력하게 심어주었다고 경고한다.

---

## 평론: 기술적 우위가 초래한 전략적 맹점

로버트 페이프의 분석은 현대 전쟁에서 <전술적 승리>가 어떻게 <전략적 패배>로 귀결되는지를 날카롭게 해부한다. 그의 논지는 군사력의 행사가 정치적 반응을 일으키며, 그 반응이 때로는 군사적 성과를 압도한다는 <정치-군사 상호작용> 이론에 뿌리를 두고 있다.

### 1. 공군력의 신화와 지상군의 딜레마

미국은 B-2 폭격기와 MOAB 등 가공할 무기로 이란을 <석기시대>로 돌려놓겠다고 호언장담하지만, 페이프는 이것이 오히려 함정이라고 지적한다. 파괴된 잔해 아래 숨겨진 농축 우라늄은 제거할 수 없으며, 폭격은 이란 민중의 적개심만 고취시킨다. 결국 미국은 <지상군 투입>이라는 최악의 선택지로 내몰리게 되는데, 이는 베트남의 늪에 다시 발을 들이는 것과 같다. 전사자가 발생할수록 <명예로운 퇴로>는 사라지고 전쟁을 지속해야만 하는 정치적 압박이 커지기 때문이다.

### 2. 지정학적 질서의 재편: 팍스 아메리카나의 종말?

페이프가 묘사하는 미래는 다극화된 세계 질서다. 미국이 주도하던 중동의 안보 앵커(Anchor)가 흔들리면서 일본, 인도 등 전통적 우방국들이 미국으로부터 거리를 두기 시작했다는 분석은 매우 시사적이다. 특히 이란, 러시아, 중국이 에너지 자원을 매개로 결속하는 시나리오는 미국 경제의 근간을 흔들 수 있는 실질적인 위협이다. 이는 군사적 패권이 경제적 안보를 보장하지 못하는 시대에 진입했음을 시사한다.

### 3. 외교적 해법의 실종과 <방해꾼> 이스라엘

평론가로서 주목할 점은 이스라엘의 역할에 대한 페이프의 냉정한 시각이다. 미국이 협상을 시도할 때마다 이스라엘이 이란의 협상 파트너를 암살하거나 도발함으로써 외교적 출구를 봉쇄했다는 지적은 동맹국 간의 전략적 이해관계가 얼마나 상충할 수 있는지를 보여준다. 트럼프 행정부가 이스라엘에 끌려다니며 스스로의 협상력을 갉아먹었다는 평가는 뼈아프다.

### 결론: 중도적 실용주의로의 회귀가 절실하다

페이프는 결론적으로 이스라엘의 군사적 억제와 핵 확산 방지 조약(NPT) 가입을 조건으로 하는 과감한 상호 감시 체제를 제안한다. 하지만 이는 현재의 양극화된 정치 지형에서는 실현 가능성이 매우 낮다. 그는 이 <에스컬레이션 함정>이 국내 정치의 극단주의와 연결되어 있다고 보며, 대중이 중도적인 선택을 통해 정치적 광기를 멈춰 세워야 한다고 역설한다.

이 대담은 기술적으로 우월한 강대국이 <지정학적 지혜>를 상실했을 때 어떤 재앙이 닥치는지를 보여주는 공포스러운 보고서다. <이길 수 없는 전쟁>을 시작한 권력자들이 그 대가를 무고한 시민과 세계 경제에 전가하고 있다는 페이프의 경고는 2026년 현재 가장 시급히 경청해야 할 목소리다.

==

다음은 업로드하신 자료
<“The Iran War Expert: The Most Dangerous Stage Begins Now (STAGE 4)”>에 대한
<1,000단어 요약 + 평론>입니다.

---

1. 핵심 문제의식

이 자료의 중심 주장은 매우 단순하지만 강력합니다.

→ <현재의 이란 전쟁은 “승패의 문제”가 아니라 “탈출 불가능한 구조적 함정”이다>

로버트 페이프는 이를
<“4단계 escalation trap (확전 함정)”>으로 설명합니다.

이 분석의 핵심은 다음입니다:

→ 군사력은 강하지만, 정치적 결과는 오히려 역효과를 낳는다
→ 따라서 개입할수록 더 깊이 빠진다

---

2. 4단계 확전 구조

(1) 1단계: 공습 → 정권 강화

• 미국/이스라엘이 핵시설, 지도부 공격
• 단기적으로는 타격 성공

하지만 결과:

→ 이란 내부 결속 강화
→ 민족주의 상승
→ 반정부 세력 약화

즉,

→ <폭격은 정권을 약화시키지 않고 강화한다>

---

(2) 2단계: 수평적 확전

• 이란은 직접 정면전 대신
• 드론, 해상 공격, 호르무즈 해협 통제

핵심:

→ 약자가 비대칭 전략으로 대응
→ 전쟁 범위가 지역 전체로 확대

---

(3) 3단계: 지상군 압박

• 해협 통제 대응 위해 지상군 필요
• 해병대 투입 가능성

하지만:

→ 지형 불리
→ 드론 공격 취약
→ 장기전 필연

---

(4) 4단계: 전략적 분기점

가장 중요한 단계:

두 가지 선택만 남음

① 지상전 확대
② 이란을 “새로운 세계 권력”으로 인정

즉,

→ <이 시점에서 “원래 상태로 복귀”는 불가능>

---

3. 핵심 통찰 1: 공습의 실패 구조

이 분석에서 가장 중요한 군사적 포인트:

→ <핵시설은 파괴 가능하지만, 핵물질은 파괴 불가능>

• 시설은 파괴됨
• 그러나 농축 우라늄은 남음

결과:

→ 단순 지연 효과
→ 궁극적 해결 불가

이는 베트남 전쟁과 동일한 패턴:

→ 80% 파괴 → 그러나 20% 유지 → 전쟁 지속

---

4. 핵심 통찰 2: 전쟁이 적을 강화한다

페이프의 핵심 이론:

→ <군사 공격은 정치적 반작용을 만든다>

구체적으로:

• 국민 결집
• 정권 정당성 상승
• 반대 세력 소멸

특히 중요한 지점:

→ 친민주 세력조차 핵무장 지지로 이동

이것은 매우 중요한 역설:

→ “민주화를 위해 공격” → “독재 강화”

---

5. 핵심 통찰 3: 에너지 권력

이 분석의 가장 독특한 부분:

→ <이란의 진짜 힘은 군사력이 아니라 에너지 통제력>

• 호르무즈 해협: 세계 석유 20~30%
• 아시아 국가 의존도 높음

결과:

→ 인도, 일본 → 미국과 거리
→ 걸프 국가 → 분열
→ 글로벌 권력 재편

즉,

→ <군사력이 아니라 “공급망 통제”가 핵심>

---

6. 핵심 통찰 4: 세계 질서 변화

페이프는 다음 구조를 제시합니다:

기존:
→ 미국 중심 단극 체제

현재:
→ 미국 vs 중국

미래:
→ 미국 vs (중국 + 러시아 + 이란)

즉,

→ <이란이 “4번째 권력 중심”으로 부상>

특히:

• 에너지
• 군사 억지력
• 지정학 위치

이 세 가지 결합

---

7. 핵심 통찰 5: 전쟁의 정치적 함정

지상군 투입 시:

• 초기 사망자 발생
• 여론 분열

그러나:

→ 지지층 결집
→ “희생 정당화” 논리

결과:

→ 전쟁 장기화

이것은 베트남과 동일:

→ “철수 불가능성 구조”

---

8. 민간인 관점

이 자료의 중요한 부분 중 하나:

→ 이란 국민 9,000만 명의 현실

예측:

• 전력망 붕괴
• 식량 공급 붕괴
• 의료 시스템 붕괴

결과:

→ 평균 수명 감소
→ 대규모 인도적 위기

핵심:

→ 전쟁의 실제 피해자는 민간인

---

9. 해결책: 거의 불가능한 딜

페이프의 제안:

→ “이스라엘 군사 행동 제한 + 핵 감시 상호 적용”

핵심 요소:

• 이란: 핵 감시 수용
• 이스라엘: 핵 투명성 수용
• 미국: 이스라엘 억제

하지만 현실:

→ 정치적으로 거의 불가능

---

10. 전체 평가

(1) 강점

① 구조적 분석

이 자료의 가장 큰 강점:

→ 사건이 아니라 “구조”를 설명

• 군사
• 정치
• 경제
• 심리

모두 연결

---

② 베트남 모델의 적용

과거 전쟁 패턴을 현재에 적용:

→ 높은 설명력

---

③ 비대칭 전쟁 이해

→ 강대국이 왜 실패하는지 설명

---

(2) 한계

① 지나친 결정론

문제:

→ “거의 모든 경로가 실패로 귀결”

현실:

• 외교 변수
• 내부 정치 변화

과소평가

---

② 미국 중심 시각

• 이란 내부 다양성
• 지역 정치 복잡성

부분적으로 단순화

---

③ 이스라엘 변수 과장 가능성

“외교 스포일러” 역할 강조:

→ 일부 사실
→ 일부 해석

---

11. 더 큰 의미

이 분석은 단순한 중동 문제가 아닙니다.

세진님이 자주 다루신 주제와 연결하면:

(1) “기억 정치 → 전쟁”

• 위협 서사 강화
• 정당성 확보
• 전쟁 지속

---

(2) “군사력 vs 정치력”

→ 군사력은 승리
→ 정치적으로는 패배

---

(3) “에너지 = 권력”

→ 21세기 권력 구조 핵심

---

12. 결론

이 자료의 핵심 메시지는 이것입니다:

→ <이 전쟁에는 “좋은 선택”이 없다>

• 공격 → 적 강화
• 철수 → 상대 권력 상승
• 지상전 → 장기전

즉,

→ <모든 경로가 비용을 낳는 구조적 함정>

---

13. 한 줄 정리

→ <이란 전쟁은 군사적 문제가 아니라, 빠져나올 수 없는 지정학적 함정이다>

---

원하시면 이어서:

→ <이 분석 vs 현실 학계 주류 견해 비교>
→ <이스라엘–이란–미국 3자 전략 구조 도식화>
→ <한국/동아시아에 적용: “확전 함정” 모델>

까지 확장해 드릴 수 있습니다.

==

==

12,632 Comments

Sejin Lifeforce 生命

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@TheDiaryOfACEO

7 days ago

Do you like these types of conversations? Tap the like button on the video, that’s the best way to let me know you want more like this ❤ And if you haven’t already, hit subscribe - it’s completely free and it really helps the channel grow 🙏🏾appreciate you! 

One last thing: our incredible team has been working very hard to make these conversations available to as many people as possible. All episodes are now dubbed in 14 different languages. If you know someone who would enjoy these conversations, please share them with them - SB x

1.6K

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@alitavakol5405

7 days ago

This is unbelievable, as iranian i have to say all the experts in the podcast so far are picturing the situation fully wrong, they don’t even mention the big majority of the people are waiting for a moment to take the government and by any second the government might fall, talking about iran has upper hand is simply not true and if you even write down what both countries have done so far you can easily see who is winning, something he said which is truly opposite in iran is after war people are working more for the government however it’s fully opposite more people are running away and not working

20

Reply

@TicuMorariu-vk9ci

1 day ago

​ @alitavakol5405 multa lume așteaptă să cadă hegemonia petrodolarului in orientul mijlociu care e durerea cea mai mare a lor trampistas . Degeaba încearcă trampi cu diferite forme șirete  cu CIA și Mosad ,pentru că Iranul nu e Venezuela .Iranul sa  pregătit pentru orice mișcare greșită a lui trampi și acționează întocmai și la timp .😂😂😂

2

Reply

@nxtlucky83

5 days ago (edited)

​​ @alitavakol5405  With what you wrote I know you don't live in Iran.

8

Reply

@tylershields-lr8tw

7 days ago

Quit being of overwhelming self interest.  Starting to wonder if the show is there just to to self ptomote your investments.  Keep up all these adds, im out.  

You closed with an AI prop.  

What i suggest, is when trump says this "ill erradicate" nonsense, its being driven by AI.  The government already has stuff better than what we see.  And AI is seeing the worlds reactions with the troop movements, the crazy tweets, and the we won, threaten.... we won, threaten(let alone purposefully destabilizing markets), and some super AI somewhere is just data collecting the worlds reactions.  Trumps a puppet, and does what hes told.  Hes not this free willed guy that "cant be controlled".  Thats simply just a successful psyop to any that buy it.

6

Reply

@juliasommer2364

7 days ago

The goal is to destroy the leverage of Hormuz. The world will get the oil from America: usa, Venezuela, greenland, canada, etc

5

Reply

@kennethgladden7014

6 days ago

As someone said in the suggestions bring on an Iranian.

5

Reply

@ImAManMann

5 days ago

​ @kennethgladden7014 yeah... Tousi

1

Reply

@Robzomb92

7 days ago

I think you mire appreciating the money you get .

Im done with these lies !

4

Reply

@marybeth6676

7 days ago

I subscribed 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

3

Reply

@marybeth6676

7 days ago

I subscribed 😊🎉🎉🎉🎉

3

Reply

@spacetime7979

7 days ago

Re Oil prices and the US inability to control world prices... what if the US nationalises their oil supply (no compensation other than company worth) to have self sufficient supply with price controlled by the state?

3

Reply

@marie-paulempore6631

7 days ago

Thank you for this interesting conversation. China , Iran and Russia are authoritarian regimes that oversee systems that benefit a powerful core of predatory elites and their clients.

3

Reply

@anthonytester6873

7 days ago

OK, have done all that you have asked. 🎉 😊

3

Reply

@rabbitholerider

7 days ago

ALL OF THIS BS WOULD STOP IN ITS TRACKS WITH RELEASING THE HIDDEN SECRET WE KNOW OUR DEEP STATE HAS HAD ALL THIS TIME. IF ITS ALL ABOUT THE OIL !

3

Reply

@MarkMarK-w5e

7 days ago

Professor Jiang next!

3

Reply

@wiedykwanda7824

6 days ago

​ @MarkMarK-w5e dia bukan professor

1

Reply

@mas-wolf

2 days ago

 @MarkMarK-w5e  Why not go straight to IRGC?

Reply

@ayoooitsriccoooo

7 days ago

No the old fart was born before any electronic he knows nothing

3

Reply

@twicv911

6 days ago

Yes we do . Robert Pade sounds like he doesn’t understand negotiation.  Kinda sounds like he’s starting to suffer from TBS..  war is War since 1979 no US President has had balls.  The US has a massive quantity of nuclear weapons. Do you see the US bum and everybody with them? No Iran would do that in a heartbeat to the US if they had 100%  weapons

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@daniellemarie1726

7 days ago

YT doesnt let me hype

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@anthothiyahisrael422

7 days ago

Red words of Yahusha.

Dumitru Duduman — America Will Burn.

Ken Peters — I Saw the Tribulation.

2 Esdras 11 & 15:28 — America’s fall.

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@ImAManMann

5 days ago

​ @anthothiyahisrael422 lol no

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@briansoares1647

7 days ago

one thing that hasnt really been talked about is how much this war is costing America and what affects this will have on the economy. I realize you talked about oil and gas but im more referring to the military spending aspect.  Would like to know more if possible.

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@pouya-business

10 hours ago

Iranian here, thank you for your care for people of Iran, may all wars end and we reach global peace! One can dream.

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@aviaja2008

7 days ago

I belong to the 99 % of people on earth who want a world without wars, without pollution, without poverty, without discrimination.

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@cannabislife1688

6 days ago

I agree so much with your comment. Why can’t all countries get along, it’s entirely plausible. Imagine the technology we could achieve and medical advances if we all worked together. We could explore space together, instead of fighting each other. We only get 1 Earth, that’s it there is no other place we can call home. Please, cherish the Earth, cherish your fellow Man. Have respect for the environment, be grateful and humble for what you have. Fight for equality, achieve liberty.

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@iapos2951

1 day ago

​ @cannabislife1688 no because the heart of man always wants more. Its human kind. People in power always want more power. If there is supposed peace, then peoplr are getting slaughtered in the background and you are actually a slave. If aomeone proclaims that then you are looking at slavery and a liar

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@marciafonseca3306

1 day ago (edited)

​​ @cannabislife1688 Quando você tem um presidente que coloca o seu país em primeiro lugar e não quer deixar que acabem com ele, é no mínimo louvável.  O governo do Irã quer acabar com os EUA e com Israel e falam isso em alto w bom som. Suas crianças são ensinadas a odiar americanos e judeus. Pense nisso .

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@jacquelinerodriguez3213

5 days ago

 @cannabislife1688 we need to hold feminine ideals ( compassion, empathy, nurturing, connection) in the same regard as we do with the masculine traits ( ego, power, force)

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@mentak2593

6 days ago

Yeah, we should peacefully put the violent people in a cooling off place until they are able to regulate themselves to be in society. If they can - great, if not - well they can enjoy the prison environment. Something like the Nordic countries have that actually have success to rehab people, or they stay in prison but have useful tasks to complete daily.

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@carolwalsh3264

6 days ago

We also want a world without terrorists 🙏

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@iapos2951

1 day ago

Wait are you saying a world without evil people ? Because thats not actually poasible considering that is the heart of man. There will and always has been evil in this world because of sin. This world will always have sin in it.

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@KatieHiggins-hc1ph

6 days ago

 @carolwalsh3264  Or those who inspire terrorists.

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@jacquelinerodriguez3213

5 days ago

 @carolwalsh3264 or lying about terrorist to invade sovereign countries 🙄

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@Galshan523

7 days ago

Nice to be there but history shows that 99% of the people on earth do not think like you so you do need to prepare and act sometimes

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@Benjamin777-e3n

6 days ago

Yes and without God. That's why it's never worked. People have hearts that are filled with greed pride hate and wickedness.

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@NightlyHooter

4 days ago

 @Benjamin777-e3n  Correct! Apart from God, we can do nothing. Our sinful hearts will destroy everything. We are contaminated with sin inside us, in the world all around us, and the evil spirits as well. Only Jesus, who paid for everyone’s sin, can correctly run this world and our lives. We just have to surrender to Him and obey His commands. He is the Good Shepherd. Everyone else is just a hired shepherd who just looks out for their own self interests.

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@l.torres6276

6 days ago

Without corruption!

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@iapos2951

1 day ago

​ @l.torres6276 lmao. Ya that will never happen

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@AprilDee-u9c

4 days ago

 @l.torres6276  and GREED.

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@user-mr8yi4iv5v

6 days ago

 @l.torres6276  That is a matter of The People taking control of their governments. And, that may result in revolution of some description. But, revolt doesn't always have to be carnage.

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@qualeaarte889

6 days ago

Porém para ter a paz mundial,  seria preciso renunciar o próprio ego e colocar o coletivo em primeiro lugar, é uma luta pessoal contra a própria natureza. São poucas pessoas que estão dispostas a renunciar as próprias vontades em prol do coletivo.

É preciso pensar além de si mesmo e grande parte das pessoas não consegue.

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@mkkrupp2462

6 days ago

 @qualeaarte889  Especially when men are involved. It’s ego and one upsmanship  against other men. It happens with male animals too. It’s testosterone.

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@CelticThai

6 days ago

Keep dreaming

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@nokmbk

6 days ago

Unfortunately keep wish as it will never happen!

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@Alex-all-day

6 days ago

These European shows lmaooo

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@BobaFett4L-g8y

6 days ago

That's all well and good, but the history of ALL civilization should have taught you, that it's not possible to do so even within our own species.  Now imagine there's species that are more advanced that us.  We'd be Rats or Bunnies to them.

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@user-mr8yi4iv5v

6 days ago

 @BobaFett4L-g8y  That's also all well and good. But, the globalists consider themselves more advanced than us and they think that we are their property to do with as they please, including killing and or eating us. They are psychotic and they need to be permanently removed. Therein lies the peace and harmony of us regular and more importantly sane folks.

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@TheDon71047

6 days ago

The elites who run things won’t let people have peace because their father is Satan the father of lies.

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@comama1629

5 days ago

Good luck with that.

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@CosmicGirl78

4 days ago

Yes, the 1% can go to another planet.

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@MetalsUnlimited

5 days ago

I’m worn out by everything now  , the chaos and all  and currently it is all just about making  money.  There used to be  more to life than this, and I really miss that,  honestly it’s sad…

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@pardischakavakrahmani1789

2 days ago (edited)

I think you should invite an Iranian to discuss this war. There are many experts amongst us, who unfortunately get “Iransplained” time and again by “professionals” who have at best only studied similar cases.

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@WabiSabi_lifee

7 days ago

Why can’t these ultra wealthy people send their own families to fight these wars. Leave us regular people out of it!

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@justicekwansa4818

6 days ago

I pray for the people of Persia. They'll overcome this. History tells me this.

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@robertfoertsch

1 day ago (edited)

Excellent Analysis, Deployed Worldwide Through The TRUTH Network…  

Thank You 🙏 ❤

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@mohammedalsharifi9333

1 day ago

للمنتصر تعود الغنائم دائماً منطقهم وان شاء الله تعالى نتعامل معهم بنفس منطقهم معهم ومع من وقف معهم الا ما رحم ربي ومن رحم ربي

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@mizzLopez

7 days ago

Netanyahu is the worst US president ever!

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@DarioDAversa

5 days ago

Just last week, my Lebanese friend here in Canada just announced that his brother, along with his wife and two children, all died during an Israel bombing in Lebanon. They were just regular, peaceful people living their quiet lives. They loved the USA, had no hate in their heart, and yet they are now dead. This geopolitical talk has its place, but here's a friendly reminder that innocent people DIE during wars. This could have all been avoided if the people on top were not egomaniacs. It's really sad that the world keeps being shaped by a bunch of raging maniacs. We're not going to survive this way.

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@robzplace4747

7 days ago

The world is tiresome…why can’t we just exist in peace?

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@happysimus

6 hours ago

Nice you acknowledged the People of Iran at the end.. Great sense of Humanity !

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@TheDiaryOfACEO

6 days ago

For those asking! We recorded this just before the weekend 👊🏾

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@takek9215

4 days ago

The act of starting a war for the sake of elections has resulted in soldiers dedicating their lives to evil rather than their families.

What do they call the act of blowing up infrastructure and plunging a country into terror? They don't understand which side they're on.

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@justinapaleckyte717

5 days ago

Please bring this gentleman back in a few weeks time it’s really interesting 🙏

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@bertogooch

1 day ago

Sometimes i wonder how some people can be watching entirely different things while watching the exact same thing

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@UK-MMA

4 days ago (edited)

I remember when General Smedley butler said he was “sick and tired of old rich men, dreaming up new wars, for young men to die in” 

Sadly I am a 22 year veteran and I kept seeing this again and again, eventually leaving the military disgusted as this whole war machine is simply to make more and more money for super rich people who would never send their young family members into a single war ggrrrrr!!!!

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@bigskiesmontana7267

6 days ago

There is no forgiveness EVER for a president that threatens genocide.  Unforgiveable.  My sincere apologies to the people of Iran.

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@andrewjenkinson7052

6 days ago

As I said elsewhere, that is why he will actually commit genocide. That way he will not go down in history as just a stupid conman but be Infamous!

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@vicarious4961

5 days ago

 @andrewjenkinson7052 🫵😆🤣

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@rosariocarbajal1380

2 days ago (edited)

 @andrewjenkinson7052 he talks shit all the time, whatever is on his mind, but how realistic is to do that—none.  He loves Iranias.

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@BigBroJon

5 days ago

 @andrewjenkinson7052  That was an empty threat and we both know it.

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@pratiktoharsosusanto9205

5 days ago

Amerika dan Israel takut negara lain memiliki nuclear

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@BigBroJon

5 days ago

 @pratiktoharsosusanto9205  yes, they don't want another superpower on the block. It's a battle of the Titans. This is why America hates Russia. They want to break it up into 5 parts and leave just China and America at the top.

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@rosariocarbajal1380

2 days ago

Trump can say that, but will not do that ever.  He loves Iranians,  he is upset with the suppresive government only.

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@Ayt-m4c

2 days ago

Çok yalan katliam yaptı  tramp. bir okulu bombaladi  yargilanmali tramp bir katil

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@SamsulKhoir-w5t

2 days ago

Bravo iran ❤💞❤💞❤💞❤💞❤💞

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@tonibrooks9719

1 day ago

Thank you! I agree.

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@reviewtalent9021

7 days ago

The international community demands accountability: Trump and Netanyahu must be held responsible for their actions.

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@AdzynDadzy

9 hours ago (edited)

Something big is coming—not just war, not just technology, not just disease.

Change is accelerating across every part of life.

Stay informed. Stay prepared. Stay grounded.

The future will demand awareness, resilience, and clear thinking.

More to come. 

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@eattheheat1919

7 days ago

Thank you for sparing a thought for the innocent Iranian people, that shows true compassion and respect.

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@ummhurairah99

4 days ago

How many wars has Iran started in the Passed 40 years? 0  How many wars has America and Israelis started in the Passed 40 years? dozens! Who is the aggressor then?  NO MORE WARS!

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@ethanthomas-21

7 days ago

Isn't netanyahu like facing some criminal charges that's why he wants the war to keep going??

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@Chicitatequila10

2 days ago

Thank you Steven for asking questions!

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@patrickmiller9315

7 days ago

I feel we are watching a Greek Tragedy where the story has been written and the actors are all just playing their part while the audience is shocked and feeling powerless to change the ending.

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@RuthBrown-tm2gt

7 days ago

Dealing with Trump is like playing chess with a pigeon. The pigeon knocks all the pieces over, leaves  droppings all over the board and then struts around  like it won.

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@gd4163-c1k

6 days ago

Absolutely Steven - my heart also goes out to the ordinary people of Iran. As it does to all people who are affected by war

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@UserZzz-u4d

1 day ago

Excellent journalism

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@TheDeathopper

7 days ago (edited)

Just a suggestion for future episodes discussing the war, because things are moving so fast and the situation is so fluid.  I think it would be useful to mention the date this was recorded so that we can put the conversation in context with the developments of the war.

EDIT: Apparently, this is mentioned in the video, but I was listening to the video as a podcast so I did not see it. I meant in the description.

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@alibahaa5988

4 days ago

انا كعراقي لا أرى أكثر إرهابا من اسرائيل وامريكا قل لي كم دولة حاربتم وكم من روح ازهقتم انتم ارهاب وليس. العرب وانتم من صنعتم داعش والقاعدة وكل منحرف انتم واسرائيل من اوجدتموهم

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@vimbaichatitai6715

5 days ago

Israel isn't talking about a ground invasion of Iran. Vietnam was a French war, but in the end it was America that did the fighting. History is repeating itself.

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@PiggyFinance-s6p

16 hours ago

I will never be able to forget this man.

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@Michael_O.

6 days ago

The conversation is nothing truly new to me, but I'm glad it's being had.

I just can't move past the way he's moving the scales backwards.

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@k4i21c

6 days ago

Love how Steven just asks questions on things he doesn't know or understand right away instead of not saying anything to not "look bad". Thanks Steven.

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@zaisaber

7 days ago

This will be worse than Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam all together…………

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@huyentrang7350

1 day ago

Có thể không có chiến tranh được không? Chúng tôi yêu chuộng hòa bình không muốn người dân bị nghèo khổ

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@gldk736

5 days ago

I appreciate Steve amplifying the voices of the citizens of Iran.

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@jamesjdonatelli2of2

6 days ago (edited)

So grateful for this intelligent discussion on the facts with an expert who actually understands the pros and cons of this sensitive geo political situation. Thank you!

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@diegousalma

5 days ago

Why do Americans think they can do whatever the hell they want? Even better: Do they know they are not the center of the universe?

Hollywood really fucked up that country.

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@robeckel4965

3 days ago

That scale demonstration was really confusing

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@dstjohn2007

5 days ago

Prof. Pape is a very good communicator of these complex and nuanced scenarios. Thanks for having him back in such a timely manner. Please keep his number close by, SB.

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@doreenscott4654

7 days ago

Listening from Australia 🇦🇺.  Great interview.  Knowledge is power.😊

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@anthonydesic9306

7 days ago

great video Steven !! Very insightful

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The Diary Of A CEO

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@JorgeMucavele

3 days ago

força o programa esta bom

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@singlim2327

6 days ago

The weighing scale was NOT the best prop 😅

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@porcupine783

6 days ago

All of the little babies on ventilators will die if they take out the power 😢

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@bt1378

7 days ago

Hello Mr Ceo - i like how you ask them to clarify what they say so you make sure everything is understood.

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@Nimajobs

2 days ago

Tanx Steven ❤ from iran

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@samtoller

7 days ago

I pay for YouTube premium so I don’t have to watch ads. Sneaking them in within the show is super frustrating.

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@DB-dw5gz

6 days ago

Steven you are doing God's work! Thank you so much for creating this content and sharing it with all of us. Informative and intelligent conversations that we can understand. I love the questions you ask. You are asking for all of us. Keep up the incredible work! ❤

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@IronViron444

5 days ago

Benjamin Fulford called...

Puh Lease, this is absolute Nonsense 💯

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@SLF-o2w

2 days ago

The Bomb Mafia refers to the group of US Air Force generals like Curtis LeMay.  Howard Zinn “served” as a bombadier in WWII who dropped a liquid substance he later found out was napalm at the end of the war on parts of France which might have had remaining German soldiers.

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@raphaeldelaghetto8680

6 days ago

What an absolutely wonderful guest and well produced show.  I wish these were not such grim times, it would be more enjoyable.

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@ramonamk56

7 days ago

Decoupling from the Petro Dollar THAT IS WHAT IS GOING ON.

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@Maldo15

7 days ago

Something I really like about this show is how although you are clearly not an oblivious man to the topics at hand, you still ask some questions as if you know nothing about it and help us, through the guest´s clarifications, fully understand what they are saying. Great job

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@RobinHood2434

1 day ago

Peace ! - this is the way ! Thank you !

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@zigfreidbop

5 days ago

We really need to do something to stop sociopaths rising to power in the country. These people who become our most powerful leaders in government AND industry are BY DEFINITION among the most disturbed people among us. Our most callous, selfish, and lethal are funneled straight to the heights of power in this society. We seriously need a structural mechanism that limits these types of people from getting any power, much less the power of the US presidency.

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@sarahbaharavdni6139

5 days ago

This interview is the first one that look at this war from technical persoective objectively by a real educated person, and thank you for your empathy for innocent people❤

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@symals

7 days ago

In short, arrogance turns everyone against you.And you end up losing, no matter how powerful you are, arrogance, always falls

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@jituvaghela4592

19 hours ago

Very nice journalism🎉🎉🎉

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@YasithAlwis

6 days ago

Why do Americans think that USA is the only country in the world and they are the only people who are supposed to live freely?

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@traceyhunter5454

6 days ago (edited)

It was so refreshing to have a guest offering such transparency and insight in the political / war arena.  The visuals of the map was nice... It provided more clarity on the subject that no one has covered the way that you and your team have Steven. Thanks and well done team!

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@Tdonn25

3 days ago

You should have this guy come on to talk about the blockade now

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@markgdallas

21 hours ago

Spot on interview

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@DigitalLogicCircuit

6 days ago

This conversation made me cry. There’s too much truth here. The aftermath from what’s going on will affect generations. Praying for all those who have lost their lives or loved ones

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@ArcherBow4x

3 days ago

Bring professor jiang xueqin in your show in person.

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@eunuseusuf

7 days ago

Love the host for clearing every military term

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@uk4490

5 hours ago

Great show ❤

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@zb2551

7 days ago

Steven love these videos on the current war.  You aren't afraid to ask the basic questions as well as the more complex ones to help us all understand the true complexity of the situation.  Wonderful guests.❤

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The Diary Of A CEO

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@bobbader4789

7 days ago

No boots on the ground! We don’t need another Vietnam.

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@jonathandeller

7 days ago

Not sure when this was filmed but it seems to be before Trump announced that the US will blockade the Strait. He doesn't seem to mention that option, and he also doesn't mention how much of the oil that flowed through the Strait prior to the war has now been rerouted. You'll have to bring him back for another update😂

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@margrethughes4066

1 day ago

Great reporting

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@malcolmsamuel7918

6 days ago

This video is so powerful. This video was deep and serious conversation.  We need to bring him back for each stage of this war to showcase where we are and where we are heading. Thank you DOAC.

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@Itstrailmixchick

5 days ago

Really enjoyed this episode. Robert is so knowledgeable and really good at breaking things down.

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@Risingcappy77

6 days ago

Love all the questions you ask him Steve!  You represent us so well!

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@AsepKomara-eu7uy

2 days ago

Sudah saya subrike komen and share

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@goodgames9576

7 days ago

Love your videos keep it up, brother

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@Kung.Pao.Kitty.

7 days ago

Another video I'll sit through the whole episode.

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The Diary Of A CEO

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@Ahimsabeing

6 days ago

The ceasefire is actually breaking down very fast because Israel has no respect for ceasefire agreements, and acts like a terrorist state and keeps attacking... Just like the "" "ceasefire" " with Gaza

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@valeriemoran842

1 day ago

Teue words!! This is damgerous!!!

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@superregfrancis

7 days ago

Time for everyone to visualize peace and understading

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@geronimomiles7171

7 days ago

Bring this guy back in six months. 😉

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@bernardthemissionary

7 days ago

Bring an official of the Iranian Government.

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@debikirkwood9784

1 day ago

Very Good Show

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@ashebirkebede2062

7 days ago (edited)

So valuable and brilliant ideas with clear analytics I have gained ever. I have a better understanding of the war between the USA and Iran than before.

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@brianzerega1958

6 days ago

Imagine we had a president who listened to experts

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@cassamcgann

7 days ago

Australia tuning in.... more insight than Iva^**a!

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@pepe8059

2 days ago

Thanks for the very good Convention.

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@EmsTerminator

7 days ago

Watching from New Zealand. Absolutely love your videos and so helpful for such a time as this. Thankyou

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@liftrig7383

7 days ago

Thank you professor Pape, I am Iranian and listening to you calms me down.

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@shabnamkabiri9498

7 days ago

The realities discussed in this conversation are horrendous. They made me shiver and cry as an Iranian in diaspora who has always been against the war.

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@justiceandpeace

2 days ago

Excellent interview,  please bring Paul back again

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@paulk756

7 days ago

I'm going to assume this was recorded before Trump came out and said today he was going to block and take control of the strait....🤯

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@theresiabrazao6435

7 days ago

Brilliant show. Thank you for this update. It makes so much sense. Peace is the only path that will fix this.

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@romaldorichards8429

7 days ago

Since 1950, every Israeli prime minister went to the White House to ask the president to bomb Iran, and they all said no because they knew it was military suicide. But then the smartest of them all, Donald Duck, had to come along and say yes.

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@MarcianoFelizolaFormento

1 day ago

Me gusta mucho sus comentarios,, saludos gracias por su noticias,, desde STGO de cuba,,, felizola

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@kirthammond9704

3 days ago

What good was the Obama treaty with Iran. Billions of dollars to inspect nuclear facilities. The inspections were scheduled so highly enriched material could super easily be hidden. The mistake was not building a Saudi Arabian Pipeline through Oman to avoid all striates and choke points back in 2001. Instead all that money went into the failed Iraq campaign.

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@lenoreleitch5297

6 days ago

Best analysis of this war I’ve heard yet.  Clear, concise and based on facts and research.

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@stazarosnick3649

7 days ago

You post awesome stuff, thank you for having these conversations and guests

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@kristinlee123

1 day ago

Excellent.  Thank you.  Logical.

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@mohamedelsayed7512

6 days ago

This was a top notch interview.  Really,  the guest is just excellent.

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@adm58

7 days ago

Excellent discussion. Thank you both for sharing this.

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@BTev-l83

7 days ago

Having a nuclear bomb as a deterrent is like pulling out a gun at a fist fight  🤜

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@hagegeorges3333

1 day ago

The matrix strategy

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@BroncoNakoma

7 days ago

Australia listening I’ve started listening to your podcast while at work 🤙🤙

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@mavishills9311

7 days ago

I am watching from Melbourne Australia keep up your great work

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The Diary Of A CEO

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@lihimizrahi5157

7 days ago

I think it will be useful to bring other angles of the subject, like actual Iranians or Israelis who will help your audience understand or see things it is hard to understand from Europe or the U.S.

You focuse solely on the Western angle or the American one which oposes the war, including inviting the same expert twice without really challenging his opinion or bringing about contrary points of view

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@atemel-r2r

7 days ago

Thank you for pointing this out , American view is not world view or in this case Middle East view.

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@yusi2966

7 days ago

Yeah, it would be great to se other perspectives

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@kimmichelle0808

7 days ago

I agree…I was going to post this earlier and I’m glad you did.  Overall, I’ve appreciated this platform and the information shared.  This however is a major fail…as soon as I hear someone who is this openly biased on one side OR the other I start to tune out.   Yes, it’s hard to find someone who can speak to both sides, or even represent one side without insulting or ridiculing the other.  But it’s not impossible…if your expert turns out to be wrong both his credibility and yours is shot.  It’s dangerous to operate from such arrogance and hate.

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@hine4381

7 days ago

I agree with ya

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@enf3999

7 days ago

No one is winning in this war. As an Iranian I want regime change but I don’t want war. Don’t imagine this favors Iranians when civilians are targeted. I think it is quite a brain washed perspective to swallow any of the false and changing claims of the US government and Isreali government. Three terror states fighting each other and the civilians are trapped in the middle. Wake up. No one NEEDS to kill civilians. You can’t add any justification to this cause.

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@zachperry393

6 days ago

 @enf3999  "I want regime change but I don't want war" I have news for you. You can't have one without the other.

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@blessphemy

7 days ago

​ @enf3999 hmmm fishy, i though iranian dont have Internet right now?

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@matthewgarvin1165

7 days ago

Good point.

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@taniaazarnia7085

7 days ago

THIS!!! Please no NIAC related people. Bring true Iranian analysts and freedom seekers and Israelis to portray a proper image. Rather than Western perspectives of the East. I find all the people except Benjamin that was brought on this channel to talk about this conflict and Iran were all wrong.

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@teacup3064

7 days ago

thank you for articulating this! literally my problem with his videos so biased

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@richardstanley1885

2 days ago

Please have similarly Podcast with Professor John Mearsheimer at University of Chicago, and Professor Jeffrey Sachs at Colombia University.

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@THEGOAT69564

7 days ago

Please invite Prof. Jiang

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@HeWeHaPe

6 days ago

Good Job Steve.. Americans need to hear this guy..

 real facts..

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@kimvelasquez5520

6 days ago

You are hands down one of the best interviewers! Always well done getting to the details in an easy to understand way.

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@montyshelton5494

3 days ago

Doing great

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@ya-ali-ai

7 days ago (edited)

Then what happens if USA Nukes Iran, and Iran retaliates with a dirty bomb in USA or Isrl? Does that serve the US interests or the security of Isrl in any way?

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@RunandSee

7 days ago

Does this man not know how a scale works ?

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@heather1701d

6 days ago

Prof Pepe is the man of the moment!  Great interview!!  Love these longer formats as they allow us to understand more than just some sensationalist headline we don't even know where it came from.

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@FromRiversTotheSea

2 days ago

การเอาชนะกัน=การทำลายชีวิต

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@Asd123Fdsa

7 days ago

If soldiers are just props for political poll numbers, something is seriously broken. Maybe the ones making these decisions should be sending their own kids.

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@ramonoxido

6 days ago

Wow, this man is not a professor, this man is THE professor. His explanations are clear and rich on details to make it easy to digest. Perfect pedagogy!

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@joeb5327

7 days ago

Is anyone else bothered by this?  This was interesting, but it feels like the conclusions go further than the evidence. The point about bombing not translating into long-term wins makes sense,  but jumping from that into “we’re strengthening Iran” and “we can’t beat them” seems like a long stretch.

Same with the Israel angle. Calling them a “spoiler” kind of assumes diplomacy was about to work, which isn’t really clear. It could just as easily be that they’re operating on a much shorter timeline and different risk tolerance, which I think they likely are.

And the regional piece didn’t fully land for me either. Countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates aren’t exactly moving toward Iran—they’ve seen Iran as a HUGE threat for years. Feels more like a lot of countries are hedging and trying not to get pulled into something bigger, not realigning.

Overall, it’s a thoughtful perspective, so thank you, but it seems like one lens being treated as the full picture.

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@TheEmpowermentAlchemist

2 days ago

Be peace!

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@teda8995

7 days ago

When the power of love becomes stronger than the love of power the world will be at peace

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@susyg82

6 days ago

This is one of the most comprehensive explanation and description of the current war that have heard. Thank you for such a great guest and great questions. 

Also, wars suck. 

Thinking of the Iranian people, and everyone in the region, caught in the madness of a few people.

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@bellyjeans999

7 days ago

I think it will be one gigantic, absolutely unnecessary blood bath if they put boots on the ground, my heart goes out to all American marines families. 💔

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@richardlowedjproducerIre

20 hours ago

Great Episode 👏👏👏

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@ColKurtzknew

2 days ago

Straight of Hormuz opened. Iran is capitulating. Need a take back ?😊

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@danteg2388

7 days ago

If you damage the middle class your damage the country. Governments need to protect and grow the middle class to make countries better.

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@MartinaVesela-y2g

7 days ago

Steven, thank you for consistently bringing amazing guests, these conversations are always so insightful and educational.🙏🏼💗

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The Diary Of A CEO

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6 replies

@miguelrugeroni9917

1 day ago

 €2.49

Thanks

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@Rar3Breedz

7 days ago

They have the strongest granite in the world and have all there missiles and drones all in underground cities. It all most impossible to destroy there supplies. They have ships and planes underground even . 100s of miles of these cities. Thank you for your amazing video ❤️❤️❤️❤️

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@kevinlotr

6 days ago (edited)

Do not call him the “Secretary of War”. Congress never approved any changes, it’s a made up name. We have the defense department and a secretary of defense. Don’t give them what they want. I’m saying this on behalf of the sane Americans in the USA.

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@bbbbbbking

7 days ago

Well shit. If this guys is the Iran expert we should have asked him what to do!🤪

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@beauwayitu7365

16 hours ago

Excellent Analysis

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@claudiotagini

2 days ago

turned out just a bunch of bullcrap, didn't it?

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@Enassamirdawood

3 days ago

How can a university professor speak about Iran and not know that Iran did not build a nuclear bomb, not out of fear of any country, but because of the Islamic fatwa issued by Ayatollah Khomeini, who was killed on the first day he was a religious authority whose fatwas are followed? He issued a fatwa that nuclear weapons are forbidden in Islam because they do not distinguish between humans, animals, nature, evildoers, and civilians; they kill everything.

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@MRKAYEYECEE

6 days ago

Excellent listen (and watch) ALL the way through. 100% !

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@tekkemtaaxago

3 days ago

Raisonnable ce Monsieur merci pour tous que vous faites.

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@nicksky9568

2 days ago

4 days later, the bottom line is....this guy looks more and more like a kook and is completely wrong about how "this war will play out". Find a fortune teller with no military experience and I am sure his/her prediction will better mirror reality. LMAO!!!

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@spbobs

7 days ago

What? At 12am video? I gotta work later on today! Im gonna have to call in late

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The Diary Of A CEO

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9 replies

@cm23045

6 days ago

This conversation was the most important and interesting explanation of the actions of the Orange menace. I have heard anywhere..  the conversation was riveting, informative, and easy to understand. I appreciate being able to hear this from someone who clearly has a handle on the entirety of the situation..  

Thank you for presenting such important information. Continue on with a good Works honest reporting is so badly needed.

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@RaeAttarian

3 days ago

Let's hope for a better situation! Great information professor, thank you.

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@joshlicht1359

6 days ago (edited)

99.9% of us just want peace, it's a shame we give power to few power hungry blockheads who ruin it for everyone.

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@EtotheFnD

7 days ago

The sad part about this...i just have this feeling NONE OF THIS INFO even makes it to our president...🤷‍♂️

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@Trisha_oz

7 days ago

Watching from Melbourne Australia 🇦🇺 too! Dinner time here! Love your work 👍🏻🙌🏻

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The Diary Of A CEO

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1 reply

@the_young_batsman

3 days ago

Informative video content

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@innap1100

4 days ago

I watched this podcast and found the discussion interesting, but I think it would be more balanced if the host also invited a guest with a different perspective on the situation in Iran. Hearing two sides would give viewers a more complete understanding of the issue.

Also, I’m curious, if the professor has over 20 years of experience and has worked closely with the government, why haven’t his views been more widely adopted or implemented?

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@MohdNaushad-h3v

7 days ago

Stop the war please 😢

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@straubulous9511

7 days ago

These interviews are exactly what we need. Keep them coming! Thank you for the professional manner you follow through with everything.

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The Diary Of A CEO

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2 replies

@Chris-fb1zc

3 days ago

Oil greed is evil

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@ThatGuyFromAlberta

7 days ago (edited)

Pape is a great guest. I watched his first appearance and I was highly impressed with his take on the war in Iran. Having him back on now 40 days into this made me light up and immediately click on this interview.  Very insightful and on point.

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The Diary Of A CEO

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3 replies

@anamariaradu292

7 days ago

US at the command of Israel opened a can of worms

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@swirvin704

2 days ago

This guy was completely wrong! His bias and politics guides his rhetoric.

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@TAG-TTAGGG3

9 hours ago

Love you and what you do!

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@brandonbrown9598

5 days ago

What's the point of having YouTube Premium if we have to experience ads throughout the entire video?

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@emeric3449

7 days ago

These people are always right until they are wrong, but you never hear anything after that. The reason nothing ever works in the middle is that we have had presidents that only use half measures. They see that as weakness. Iran can be toppled. The people of Iran have to do it though

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@jimmpy83

7 days ago

It's high time for US Congress to raise Article 25. Trump should be removed to world peace and safety.

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@ytar-n7

1 day ago

Силы и удачи ИРАНУ!

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@emilyhammond7471

7 days ago

This is what happens when you let an ignorant, unqualified, DICTATOR  and CULT regime take over‼They eff'd up the USA and then the entire world‼ LOCK THEM UP...NOW‼

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@stackwithstacks

6 days ago

Love you dude!  I've been following you since the start and your progress and guest are inspirational!

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@adriantyler2260

7 days ago

Sitting at the diner table with 3 generations of my English family, not 1 person likes Trump, or supports the USA. 

Never thought my middle class family would be pro Iran and anti America

Trump you are truly hated

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@bokmakierie1

1 day ago

Very very good discussion.

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@themongoose7318

6 days ago

The fact that nothing can be done about drone attacks surely renders this war as a stalemate.

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@eltonwl86002

2 days ago

So what does the professor have to say now??? Is he coming back to the show...

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@internationaldaily9820

6 days ago

Thank you Professor Robert Pape. Thank you DOAC! 😘😍🥰

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@tahrahembara-ts4tu

3 days ago

Une analyse pertinente et objective

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@grasshoper3770

7 days ago

The world saw we could not beat Iran 

That’s the dangerous part

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@JGold-cu5mo

7 days ago

Oh well, looks like everybody needs nukes to be safe from USA aggression. It worked with Nth Korea... soz Sth Korea. Russia also.

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@sanfordbrotman1191

6 days ago

Whenever I get ants inside the house over the years I spray them.  They come back, I spray and they return.  My 8 year old daughter tells me that it's not going to work, I can't get rid of them.  It happens maybe 3-4 times and then they're gone.   I'm sure they're still around but they stop bothering me inside my house so I'm pleased and my daughter learns a lesson.   Robert Pape reminds me of my 8 year old daughter.

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@caroltoledo2648

3 days ago

Amazing video !

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@8Seven65

6 days ago

I get what he's saying, as a broad concept, but the idea that the US is "making Iran stronger" by destroying their nuclear facilities, their air force, their missile silos, their Navy, and select infrastructure, comes off as delusional.

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@iliassoukere2514

5 days ago

L'operation terrestre serait un desastre pour les Etats UNIS

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@metal_junky01

5 days ago

ITS BC HE CANT GET TRUMP OFF HIS MIND HIS EGO GOT CHALLANGED SO NOW EVERY OPION THEY HAVE IS BIAS

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@vigaliwu

5 days ago

exactly. No one foresee such genies move of US blocking boats leaving Iran.

Lets see what will happen next. But I see war is kind of over.

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@ojidowu

5 days ago

It is obvious then that you either have not been paying attention or you have been hearing your own version as you wished it. Apparent also is that your consumption of news is very limited.

Alastair Crookes, on many channels, has said that most of what the US is claiming to have destroyed are exquisitely built decoy weapons (aircrafts, missiles, missile launchers etc) that Iran had bought from China in huge quantities before the war began, many of which are actually heat-emmiting and which heat-seeking US/Israel munitions logged onto and blow up.

Do you think these people are stupid to leave their armaments on the surface for them to be picked by satellite and destroyed? The ancient race from which these people descent built the perplexing underground cities found all over the area now called Turkey. Haven't you been reading some archeology? These people have had decades to prepare for this showdown

They maintain their capabilities and will destroy the American empire if they start ground invasion.

By the way, Iran has no satellites in space. They have switched from GPS (American-owned) shortly after the 12-day war to Chinese's high-orbit BeiDou. Why do you think they did that?

These people were set and the US walked into a trap ... on a leash by Netanyahu

And they'll pay

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@CaptainSleep

5 days ago

 @ojidowu everybody is a war expert all of a sudden

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@carmelagalvan9290

5 days ago

That is because none of that is true. Iran’s military capabilities are still intact. You gotta stop believing Trump. He is demented & not in touch with reality. The US is losing very badly and they’re covering everything up. It’s not even the first time either. Try to learn some pattern recognition and stop insulting your own intelligence.

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@thomaskeys180

5 days ago

c​⁠an you point me in the direction to the best evidence that we are covering everything up? I think it’s plausible but how are you so certain?

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@AywilRekkyu

5 days ago

​ @carmelagalvan9290  Wat they gonna with only fast attack boats? It's their only remaining forces lmao. I suggest you keep updated, you're being fed with wrong information. 

Their geographical advantage has turned against them. What are your evidences that they're winning?

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@BigBroJon

5 days ago

 @carmelagalvan9290  They had approximately 13 ships, which wouldn't be particularly difficult to neutralize. Iran operates more from a militia-based standpoint — they don't rely on a large conventional military presence with jets and naval vessels. Instead, they leverage cost-effective drone technology and nuclear deterrence to maintain their strategic position.

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@XYZ-nh5ti

3 days ago

GREAT TALK 🗣️ ‼️. But ISRAEL’s  🇮🇱 subvertive role only skimmed over. Given that their bloodlust has caused so much pain in the world, we need to scrutinise their hold over US/UK politics.

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@zhaoyang68

6 days ago

自从上次节目就一直关注Pape教授，很有道理，持续关注，谢谢更新

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@deloresdilday3978

3 days ago

Really acutely explained...Loved this talk..Thank You

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@XxXtraCookie

6 days ago

The moment we put scientists to rule countries instead of delusional politicians - this is the time humanity will really trive!

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@JamesMakers1

6 days ago

Imagine a world without Israel

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@Marko_Media

17 hours ago

This was excellent! Thank you!

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@gomnokijuhy

5 days ago

America and its allies are not fighting for the people, believe me, this is like the interests of a few people sacrificing the people of a country, and you are really damn!

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@AllTheDips

6 days ago

Funny how he failed to mention that Iran’s chant is death to America

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@farshidhoushmand

7 days ago (edited)

Tuning in from Iran, thanks for this.

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@cesarqueti

2 days ago

I really like that you ask the interviewee to clarify concepts and phraseology that some people take for granted

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@stephenmoore8354

7 days ago

If he has advised past American presidents and foreign policies... should be held accountable for the disastrous American foreign policies over the last 30 yrs

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@cfofra

7 days ago (edited)

He is right on some points, wrong on others. Remember, this guy is selling his book and life's work. He doesn't have access to the full picture though.

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@EriclesOcean

6 days ago

Not sure article 5 is correctly stated here ... for that article to kick in, a nation must have been attacked and not be the aggressor. Also, the US is not automatically getting command over the others' militaries.

If this guest is generaly this imprecise and advises on these topics, i am not sure what you are supposed to think of it ...

@TheDiaryOfACEO have youconsidered inviting sarah paine?

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@malcolmkirk3343

3 days ago

Love your mellow approach

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@HakimLitim-xr3ft

7 days ago

Steven, you kill it everytime. Keep it up

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The Diary Of A CEO

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3 replies

@Ozjockey1

7 days ago

24 ads to suffer through plus his own in-house schilling of clap is just unwatchable!

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@vas6643

7 days ago

To the most of the listeners here these analysis are noble. Because almost all of their information base on propaganda machines from mainstream media.

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@FELIXGrullon-vd1kv

3 days ago

" excelente programa con magníficos 

   análisis de los problemas geopolíticos 

   mundiales "

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@mgrn63-m4k

6 days ago

They were probably bombing some decoys thinking they were destroying legitimate above ground targets

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@RoboKong-c4k

2 days ago

I guess his model didn't account for option #3 - the US blocking the straight of Hormuz, and adding additional economic sanctions. I've seriously come to question the credibility of some of the "experts" on this podcast, no different from the episode with Steven Keen, who is known for getting it wrong more than he gets ir right.

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@ThisIsLeeBird

5 days ago

Will you have him back on when he is completely wrong?

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@KirbyMiller

2 days ago

Professor Pape doesn’t seem to understand how a scale works. Great interview though. Congrats to both of you. Thanks.

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@Jonno-c9b3m

7 days ago (edited)

I've listened to a few of these episodes and I'm a bit disappointed in the calibre of the "experts" interviewed. They have solid expertise in their chosen area but they also have strongly biassed perspectives and seemingly no perspective beyond them. Economics, the impact of AI.....  I came away thinking - yeah, maybe, but then maybe not. The world is not as linear as they project.

That said, this guy sounds pretty solid in his perspective.

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@cyanraptor4403

6 days ago

Love the vids Bro, I love that you ask thoes hard to ask questions.. keep up the amazing work brother.

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@chrispapa2782

7 days ago

You can’t compare Vietnam times with now days.

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@Jay-x2y4v

1 day ago

Professor Jiang n this professor together would be a really good yin and yang to try help the people understand would be a brilliant show reckon but thank you for your brother and for your humanity and humility. 🙏✌️

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@andrescer

7 days ago

Robert Pape is a wise man. I wish Trump would listen to him. But he won't and we will all suffer.Operation AIPAC Fury will never stop until we are all punished.

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@rahamotaqy

5 days ago

I really appreciate your empathy for the Iranian people, who are already oppressed by their government and now facing immense pressure.

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@Katebsaber

6 days ago

As an Iranian, I genuinely believe conversations like this matter, not just for people in Iran living through this, but for anyone in the world trying to make sense of it. Having someone of Dr. Pape’s caliber involved makes all the difference. Thanks for shedding light on such a dark moment in history. Would love to see more with him.

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@michaelswain868

7 days ago (edited)

This conflict is rooted in American nepotism and the fact Trump is a certifiable moron. Bush, Obama and Biden all got the Netanyahu "we are starting a war in Iran speech...." every single one of them told him NO!. Trump.... Trump got walked like a dog and now the dumpster fire of Iran like all his other award winning policies like tarrifs, ICE, attempting to remove birth right citizenship, social security cuts and DOGE have spilled over to a global state and a  warzone no less. You don't have to wonder "what would happen if the village idiot became president".... It happened.

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@Diana-zm1hl

3 days ago

Dialysis, surgeries, refrigeration. How horrible😭

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@tiffanyvang1085

6 days ago (edited)

American multi-party system is a failure. It divides the country, causes daily domestic fightings and push the parties to extreme policies for short-term gains at each election.

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1 reply

@SweetOldLadyKremlinTroll

7 days ago

Certainly don’t want to hear Ivanka Trump.

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@barryispuzzled

7 days ago (edited)

It's a question of how much of America's interests Trump can destroy before Congress reins him in. There could be nothing left of America by the time he's finished. It'll be a third world country.

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@zohrabenbyi8757

15 hours ago

Bonsoir et merci à vous deux monsieurs ❤

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@MauKilauea

7 days ago

I do really like your interviews Steven. My only criticism is lately a lot of them are feeling a little doomsday-ish. I'm often coming away from them feeling negative and hopeless, and there's only so long I'm going to enjoy doing that. Finding myself less likely to click your videos. Would love to see some more positive ones. Thanks for everything though, appreciate it x

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@spbobs

7 days ago

I subbed! I better get good info year after year

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The Diary Of A CEO

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2 replies

@prayerfuldailies

7 days ago

What a recovery after teh Ivanka interview hahahah

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@SeverianoCanela

1 day ago

Buen analisis ..me gusta desde R.D.

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@Nefarious86

4 days ago

Israel being the aggressor and ensuring stability can’t be a reality in the region? Colour me shocked….

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@tercets_in-greenland

7 days ago (edited)

Sadly, Trump’s strategy was “trust me, bro” and also “I’m Jesus,” which he posted today. From geopolitics to spirituality, the man is pure incompetence, megalomania, and sacrilege. In lieu of real diplomacy, Trump wants America and the world to gather round him with a fervor that might obscure the weak and indeed fatal position in which his administration has placed Americans.

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@DS-ql2iy

7 days ago

Fully respect Pape and his thought processes. But the big thing he is missing here, the critical piece, is Jihadism. This is what we are dealing with when it comes to Iran.

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@gordonkirkpatrick8090

2 days ago (edited)

Turns out that Pape’s view is pape thin.

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@scottevans1244

2 days ago

This didn’t age well did it. Just another guy who underestimated Trump. The strait is open, Iran is no longer a threat to the world. I don’t understand why people after 5 years see that Trump is a master thinker and negotiator.

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@JonathanRodriguez-bx3hm

7 days ago

prof jiang is the expert

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@HorrorEmergency

7 days ago

Kinda crazy, I'm seeing the decline of the US in real time, I wonder what will be in the history books 20 years from now. If I even make it that long.

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@cnikolov

1 day ago

Thanks for introducing robert, what a comprehensive and intelligent answers wow❤

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@jessicadutridge9882

7 days ago

I hate Trump. I hate Bibi. I hate this stupid war. I hate what this country has become. I hate our weak ass Congress, our pathetic Democrat party for their silence, military kids will die for nothing, and that the Epstein files have to take a backseat AGAIN. We are a disgrace. 

My heart goes out to every single parent of those 150+ Iranian school girls. And all the other innocent civilians harmed.

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@cindysmith6040

7 days ago

I don't know, maybe the USA and Israel should just stop bombing Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Iran, Syria... Just  thought.

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@gordoncounts1840

2 days ago

This aged terribly

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@fguffghfuiyfv6277

1 day ago

البرنامج راءع اختيار خبير امريكى له رؤيا نجعلنا على بينة من رؤيتنا ومعرفتنا بامريكا مثل هذا البروفيسور يرفع الوعى عندى❤❤❤❤❤

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@loudogg3367

7 days ago

Trump just underestimated how ridiculously complicated it is in Middle East. In many ways, Iran is simply unable to make any kind of deal. This is what Trump and many others just don't get.

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@Zino-u1l

7 days ago

Iran is doing the whole world proud. God bless Iran.

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1 reply

@xchazz86

7 days ago

Lets not forget, all of this was only possilbe as a down stream consequence of globalisation, technology transfer, labor outsourcing and wallstreet and corporate greed.

We are now closer to nuclear annilhation than ever before, hope it was worth it just so the rich and powerful can get even richer at the expense of everyone else.

The global elites will be responsible for the end of the human civilization.

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1 reply

@Aicha-w9q

21 hours ago (edited)

ضيف  جيد ومحلل سياسي  ممتاز والصحف محاور ماهر عن جد

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@faranaktabareh

4 days ago

As an Iranian, I heard your speech. What you don’t know is that there is no negotiator in the Iranian regime; it is a multi-layered regime. There are stallers, but they are all connected to each other by ideology or by financial benefit. So there is not going to be any crackdown on the system through negotiation.

Now, we have stallers in the Iranian regime—better stallers and worse stallers—but we still have stallers there. And that doesn’t give anything to the U.S. or Israel. It’s just a stalling technique until they reach and develop a military weapon and create a nuclear bomb to threaten the world with it.

Imagine that now they don’t have a nuclear bomb, and they try to bully the world by closing the Hormuz Strait. So if they do have a nuclear bomb, all the small Arab countries will be heavily bullied, and Israel is going to get destroyed for sure. They’re going to keep sending terrorists to Europe and to the U.S., and then it won’t end. They could push the world back into the Middle Ages. That’s what you don’t understand about the Islamic terrorist regime culture.

However, it was painful listening to you talk about fading the social movement and raising nationalism, because that is not true. Your guest has no education, research, or updated knowledge about Iranian sociology. While the internet is cut off and there are foreign militia in the streets of Iran to quiet down the movement, how do you dare to talk that way?

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2 replies

@ArissaArradMagicWorld

5 days ago

As an Iranian here, thank you Mr President Trump, you only have the courage to go against the Islamic Republic,please just finish the job, God bless you, we love you

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@DonnaV411

7 days ago

Good for you Steven for raising the issue of what the average Iranian person must be feeling with the threats of ending their "culture" while bombs are falling all around them.  It must be terrifying  - it is good for people to be reminded of what is REALLY happening.

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@BkzqorXjcna

2 days ago

Prof jiang anyone

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@Collin-n3y

2 days ago

4 days this video release shows how wrong this guy is 😂 happy i won’t see him on YouTube until people forgot what he said 😂

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2 replies

@garyin5085

6 days ago

The idea that any bill restricting aid to Israel would pass US Congress is absurd with lobbies like AIPAC and billionaire Zionists owning mainstream media. (1) need to vote every AIPAC politician out (2) acknowledge Zionism as root cause of this problem

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@-SonZetta-

6 days ago

“We’re not weakening Iran. We have strengthened Iran, the US is losing power”

I’m not sure what planet this doom-crier was born on, but that was some hilarious gaslighting right there 😂

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@Brandolfyr

3 days ago

lol its almost $6 a gallon in Washington, over $7 for diesel

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@leowanlpn

7 days ago

Is this recoded after the announcement of the blockade of the straight of Hormuz?

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1 reply

@persiandude1164

7 days ago

None of these Iran experts know anything about Iran it’s so sad

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@merrypaws-q2s

7 days ago (edited)

It's hilarious that MAGA thinks Iran is losing, as if this is a video game, that the more you kill and destroy, you win 😂 Iran now controls 20% of the world's oil supply (twice that of Russia), 32% if we also include the Red Sea route controlled by Houthis, and charge $2million per ship in Chinese yuan. They have destroyed all US bases in the Middle East and US-ISRAEL is depleted of its interceptors. And US has lost support from most of its allies.

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@andreuzice7417

19 hours ago

Thanks so much for your dedication to humanity, honesty and educating the world Steven!! I love your work and watching you grow. Top man!!

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@way2muchNFO

7 days ago

Wow, even as we watch this, he just posted something about being Jesus and stuff. What is going on? Is he really losing losing it over Iran? Great episode Steven! so far I’m in 4 minute mark

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The Diary Of A CEO

·

3 replies

@MinSeokSong-f8d

2 days ago

Turns out he was wrong

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@user-vn6ol1jn9l

7 days ago

Our credibility in the world is extremely low now, all because of ridiculous decisions.

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1 reply

@faillefelon8470

3 days ago

mais Steamer enverra son système de renseignements 😊😊😊

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@mazdaknazemi8268

5 days ago

I am sure there will be an enormous wave after this war, and many podcast businesses will go out of the market or the market will change somehow. The so-called expert is really out of the league; in Persian, we say the conversation is at the taxi driver level.

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@HiThere-sc2jr

7 days ago

Trump's EGO is OUT OF CONTROL!  This WILL

destroy AMERICA, FOREVER, PLUS decimating 

Our WONDERFUL MILITARY

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@RiadDiur

5 days ago

I am moroccan. And the buzz of criticizing its own country from some americans is amazing.

Believe what your country does. You will be thankful in the future.

Here we know the depth and aims of islamist regimes in the very detail, a thing that a great doctors in a university in usa isnt really able to do.

I wont call him a useful idiot like netanyahu did, but being honest, you should reconsider again : what if your'e the one who is out of history common sens, and not usa.

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1 reply

@fabianvazquez5259

23 hours ago

Great podcast !!! I really think the content is worth the watch.

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@mm-ik2hb

7 days ago

First time ive had to switch an interviewee off, so much nonesense talk

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@upinya5223

5 days ago

This guy is an idiot, he speaks what he hopes is true, But knows he’s wrong.

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@Zabiru-

7 days ago (edited)

1:19:48 - Finally. You realize that Trump is an idiot, that Trump is surrounded by idiots, that he is an easily manipulatable fool, and he should never have been elected in the first place because he lies about his intentions, breaks promises to other international powers as well as his voters, and he doesn't understand global politics or even regional politics for that matter. He is a bull in a china shop with ADHD, dementia, and pronounced narcissistic and psychopathic tendencies.

America needs to impeach him and remove his entire administration.

Yesterday.

Fucking Act, Congress!

Now.

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2 replies

@Roseta2805

2 days ago

It's so depressing watching this episode. ☹️

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@deanchapman-cw3cm

7 days ago

🔥 🇮🇱  to the ground and we can live in peace

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@AnandVasudevan-i5j

7 days ago (edited)

Just be honest. America's empire was slowly falling and there was no way out. With the Economy, unsustainable debt, internal division, social degeneracy, rise of China, destruction of the petro dollar , formation of Brics , supply chain dependency and numerous other factors i can site. This was the only option, they still have the world's most powerful military and some say not for very much longer, exacerbating the situation. It won't work though. Eventually the world will either come together to put that mad dog down (country or leadership) still not clear which or of course the world gets blown up.

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5 replies

@davidyaraldi

7 days ago

Iran isn't the enemy, the west is particularly USA and Zionist Israel

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2 replies

@edwardgrabczewski

15 hours ago (edited)

This is the best analysis I've heard to date: good questions and very detailed answers. Many thanks to you both.

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@LifeLore2024

5 days ago

Maybe if you really care to know how is day to day life in Iran, you can just ask an average Iranian, NOT a podcaster NOT a reporter NOT any activist, just an Iranian

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2 replies

@akwamarsunzal

7 days ago

NATO is not dead ffs! NATO is not Trumps war machine on demand!

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1 reply

@sherylshark

7 days ago

This guy is high

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1 reply

@RM-ed1if

3 days ago

At present, Iran's sole leverage is oil. Control of the strait. Reduce dependence worldwide on oil and leverage is reduced. Adapt to a life without oil. New technologies that don't use oil. Once Iran obtains nuclear weapons, their leverage is cemented.

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@parisqa

5 days ago

The claim that the average Iranian, even pro-democracy Iranians, would stand behind the Islamic Republic in wanting nuclear weapons as a result of the war shows how little this “expert” understands about Iranians.

For the overwhelming majority of Iranians (roughly 80–90% who oppose the Islamic Republic) the greatest fear is a nuclear-armed regime, because it would ensure the indefinite survival of a dictatorial, occupying force.

We do not see the Islamic Republic as being on our side in this war, nor is it fighting for the benefit of the Iranian people. It is fighting for its own survival and for the “Axis of Resistance.” It clearly distinguishes between its 10–20% supporters and the rest of society, rewarding one group with free food in the streets and internet access to spread its propaganda, while threatening the majority with death if they take to the streets, confiscation of property, revocation of citizenship, arrest, and execution.

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@xvi_zone

7 days ago

Mossad have all of the Epstein receipts.

US President is operating as a victim

of blackmail - what else explains the insanity 👈

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3 replies

@gardenia5686

6 days ago

On Easter Trump wrote in an insane statement, that he would skin the Iranian people alive. He is disgusting.

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@NatReg6489

1 day ago

This was a fabulous talk! Thank you for THIS!!!!! We need MORE!

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@abrakadeborah1398

7 days ago

Before I even click on this video...I am thinking...Oh boy, Another "Expert" that keeps repeating the same old, same old narrative to promote his books and his own political opinion.

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@ЕвгенийДедюхин

2 days ago

Дякую🙏

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@krumel20

3 days ago

Hello, Canadian here. I have just discovered your channel, and appreciate the content so much. Informative, high quality , thanks to your host, Prof Pape and you. 😊

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@anderssart6628

3 days ago

Хороший разговор с доктором Лектором!

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@Elpro-q9v1f

1 day ago

Gracias gracias

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@przemysawwojciechpaw7733

1 day ago

Gloria in excelsis DEO!

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@АликШахов-в1ь

3 days ago

Спасибо большое вам за отличную и грамотную объяснение

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@cemalagarer5021

19 hours ago

Verdiğiniz bilgiler için teşekkürler ❤

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@maxwellM7seven

2 days ago

there is a saying "people who live in glass jouses should not be throwing stones"

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@sadkbugraevgin684

1 day ago

Teşekkür ederim

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@aboyusef-b2x8u

3 days ago

حلقة جيدة لكن اتوقع استخدام ترمب للنووي

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@roguerepublic1460

1 day ago

Movement of forces is really an accurate description

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@frankdiaz1072

1 day ago

Praying for peace,and eyes open,evil evil hearts and minds and souls 😱

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@maricogan2903

1 day ago

My father, communications CMSGT during Viet Nam, told me that our greatest weakness was that we sent the soldiers into the Viuet Nam conflict one man at a time. A stranger entered a unit of strangers, 40% of which would never survive.  WW1 & WW2, the soldiers were trained, transported and fought as brothers in a company, platoon or unit.  They were invested in each other and fought for each other.

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@suxix7312

14 hours ago (edited)

45:51 Im surprised they didnt make an attempt on Vance when he went over for the "Peace Talks."

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@manta406

2 days ago

Dziękuję, kolejny raz było miło wysłuchać inteligentnej rozmowy.  Pozdrowienia z Polski ❤

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@ClaudejuniorMaille-m7r1b

1 day ago

Amazing informative podcast  Diary of a CEO is too notch

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@ahmedbinsaidalamri9438

1 day ago

Courage

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@Mr_ar15

14 hours ago (edited)

Get Professor Jiang on👀👀

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@charles-z1i8r

1 day ago

Dangerous informations useful for  IRAN destruction ! Yes, Professor !

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@hlsartistry

1 day ago

I joined DOAC! Really great group!

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@Glenn-hm8sb

10 hours ago

Dude.. you are better than the major newsnetworks. Chances are you will be as huge as Rogan tomorrow.

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@AnetteEngel-s3d

2 days ago

Gruß aus Deutschland - ❤ lichen Dank

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@RespectOR182

1 day ago

Consequences must be inevitable.

Pride goes before fall.

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@chriskredlo5198

2 days ago

This guy lives alone in his partisan mind, justifying his postulation to make it fit his self-worth, and esteem.

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@Cancan-g8n

3 days ago

❤👍

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@faillefelon8470

3 days ago

Mais les USA n'ont pas besoin du pétrole de cette région....c'est un plus grand producteur de pétrole.😮

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@bgwinn67

22 hours ago

Totally, agree that’s a very limited viewpoint.

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@homerobrasilfilho6989

3 days ago

Comprei e nao recebi.

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@Michael-v2m9o

2 days ago

口音很妙

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@thomasabirached8091

17 hours ago

Please interview him every month

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@faillefelon8470

3 days ago

Pourquoi tout ça ?

pourquoi tuer autant de gens ?

pourquoi ?😡❗

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@derricksimpson2643

1 day ago

Great episode but can you explain to him how a scale works

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@carloautoscuola

2 days ago

Mi piace

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@dusansainmobiliaria

2 days ago

Donde los políticos tienen sus cabezas? Atacando entre ellos, sufriendo la gente, subiendo sus impuestos, metiendo miedo 😱😨 a las poblaciones.... Que se volteen el cerebro 🧠🧠 y aprendan hacer acciones a favor de todos.

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@316bonnie1

1 day ago

P.S. thank you for not posting his question for him from previous guests Steven❤

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@ty_williams_nz8410

2 days ago (edited)

 NZ$2.00

What do we do about AI Steven? Give us direction please!

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@ChrisAaron-g4e

20 hours ago

Wow I haven't even seen the end of your podcast and I know exactly what your guest is going to say! Like I said it's all about the oil!!!!!

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@SandraPeake-jx5ft

17 hours ago

Amazing insight into the Middle East conflict  right now

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@Mr_ar15

14 hours ago

Please Get Professor Jiang on👀👀

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@robertsalade9140

2 days ago

C'est hallucinant ce qui se passe quand même et de voir ce magnifique outil qu'est le consumérisme sédater les macaques de la planète Terre, je trouve ça trop beau, je passe ma vie a prélever le troupeau de manière subtil et quand je vois tout ça, j'ai des larmes de joies ^^.

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@Batzax

3 days ago

Suggest Steve interviews Mayar Tousi

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@faillefelon8470

3 days ago

12-14 bases détruites dans le golfe ❗😡

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@paramjyothsingh5257

1 day ago

I will ll subscribe your channel sir ji

Excellent conversation with 

a very experienced person in detail

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@paulyarin

3 days ago

Did this come out before the blockade?

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@Rocketfist-g7o

6 hours ago

No one’s taking the off ramp

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@PINTV-do4vd

3 days ago

Perang di Iran Tujuan utamanya  minyak ..... Kalau alasannya karena Iran punya nuklir kenapa Korea Utara dibiarkan saja???

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@neneanea

2 hours ago

The phisics of a balance works different from how our professor was showing. Anyways. The idea is clear. Just saying

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@ClaudejuniorMaille-m7r1b

1 day ago

Top

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@spanx92

9 hours ago

Professor Jiang said this and got called the Chinese Nostradamus. Robert Pape says it? Crickets.

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@clsaw9570

2 days ago

I think the weight scale was confusing. Powerfful should be heavier isnt it. Haha

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@Hiyall-i9e

20 hours ago

I love that he uses the correct name “ Persian Gulf” because it always has been and always will be ⛳️

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@libragaming5856

23 hours ago

Powerful talk by Robert Pape — Stage 4 is chilling. I’ve heard from some credible insider sources that Iran & USA are having internal talks and soon there will be a ceasefire. Urgent diplomacy needed to prevent catastrophic escalation.

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@สมศรีลีสุวรรณ

1 day ago

พวกคุณจะคิดยุทธวิธีเพื่อการสงครามและการรุกรานประเทศอื่นไปทำไม นี่คือการปล้นชัดๆ 

ทำไมคุณไม่ทำยุทธวิธีเพื่อการผลิตเพื่อปากท้องและความมั่นคงทางอาหารซึ่งจะทำให้โลกมีความสงบสุข ซึ่งดีกว่าการเข่นฆ่าทำลายล้างมนุษย์และทำลายโลก พวกคุณเกิดมาเพื่อทำลายล้างซึ่งเทียบได้กับการเป็นซาตานในความเชื่อทางศาสนาของคุณ ซึ่งเป็นความชั่วร้าย ความมืดดำทางจิตวิญญาณของการเกิดมาชั่วระยะเวลาหนึ่งในโลกนี้ คุณต้องตายไปเช่นกันตามกฏธรรมชาติ เกิด แก่ เจ็บและตาย ทำไมหนึ่งชีวิตแสนสั้นในโลกนี้จึงมุ่งแต่ทำลายแทนที่จะสร้างความดีความสงบสุข รักษาโลกให้เป็นดาวเคราะห์ที่สวยงามน่าอยู่

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@faillefelon8470

3 days ago

c'est l'Arabie Saoudite qui a financé la Bombe atomique 😮

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@RomanKnapczyk-qr9en

1 day ago

Brawo Tramp.

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@arah2269

1 day ago

The depths of evil from today's leaders in the western world is beyond any human comprehension. BUT one day the they will be met with the consequences of their actions and pay for the immeasurable suffering and death they caused for oil, land and money that they will not take with them to their graves. 

Justice in front of the Almighty in His court will be the ultimate showdown.

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@Manage2Damage

1 day ago

We need him back in 4 weeks

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@MW-zp1my

3 days ago (edited)

Bro doesn’t know how a balance works

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@CaptainDunsel-lz5yd

3 days ago (edited)

This smug man would have described the Normandy invasion as “the US is falling into the escalation trap”…Moving on…

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2 replies

@316bonnie1

1 day ago

Exactly! 1hr13m, ships are NOW rerouting to Gulf of America for oil purchasing!

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@palitech08

1 day ago

@min 11:28 a large amount of them were decoys.

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@arikchen7070

3 days ago

What about the 35,000 Iranian who were killed by the crazy regime , suddenly this isn’t important?? It’s interesting to see how professors that are really intelligent are so wrong about politics or human dignity

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1 reply

@The_War_Ledger

1 day ago

i just hope this will end soon.

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@shakilakram4444

1 day ago

I'm a subscribe....🎉❤🎉❤

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@KevinBoneSosa

3 days ago

This didn't age well

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@FrancoRossi-f2l

15 hours ago

Molto interessante ma anche molto prevedibile perché è già accaduto da sempre e sempre succederà

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@ViktorFryn

1 day ago

Bring professor marandi

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@Randhawa-in-USA

1 day ago

This is some nice podcast. Lisitening after Iran again blocked the Strait of Hormuz.

This man, the interviewee ain't no youtube fool. And the interview/podcast is done nice so that points stand out.

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@coachellacoleman

1 day ago

My brother introduced me to your podcast, although very long and makes me grateful for ADHD/Narcolepsy medication, yet, unable to afford even a 2 week supply and learning still by seeing your podcasts. I have a deep appreciation for you and @GoodHangWithAmyPoehler - wish she'd be a guest! Much love from #CoachellaColeman

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@toniheath8243

3 hours ago

Death of the troop then the draft 🤔

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@chrisfullard5580

1 day ago

1:01.54  Now I'm paying $4,60 a gallon, here in the UK it's averaging £8, 69... 😱

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@greekychill

3 days ago

professor doesn't know how the scales work? WTF?😳

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@judithwake2757

12 hours ago

Can we get an UPDATE ????4/18/2026

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@marciafonseca3306

1 day ago

Materia pelos democratas. Que tristeza ver que o que importa é só o poder.

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@ASG-81

2 days ago

I’ve never seen a country full of people so doubtful of their own country’s standing, success, and future as the United States of today. Thank God their POTUS and his voters are patriotic and moving forward with things. Seems like much of the country is just entitled negative Nancy America haters. Interesting times. These sorts of interviews sound like little rich kids telling people who get their hands dirty for a living how difficult life is. These people gotta go hangout somewhere else, they might be contagious.

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@jamesakbar-given5009

1 day ago (edited)

In New Zealand we changed from fist past the post like in US And UK. To MMP. This has really helped we still get significant shifts in policy with a change in government.  But it is no were near as bad as it was before MMP.  This time s a way to get more centrist representives.

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@shazianoreen5560

11 hours ago

mujhe bohet afsos s kehna per raha he k Dunia 5000sal peeche jaygi

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@GhgGhg-t5g

16 hours ago

เป็นเรื่องทื่ดีน่าสนใจครับ

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@suxix7312

14 hours ago

24:57 Sounds like we have someone in power who really really really fucked up, bad.

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@ytcommentacct

19 hours ago

Sure...

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@Eddiegq22

21 hours ago (edited)

I find it hard to believe that the United States is weak, a country that was able to take out the entire Iranian leadership is not weak. American should finish it

==