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Introduction
0:00
ladies and gentlemen very much welcome to the Swedish Institute of International Affairs and a seminar it
0:06
aims to separate some myths from facts but North Korea Suntree country
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absolutely central to world politics yet little-understood for those of you we have been following
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a new cycle this weekend you might think
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that we are very skillful planners at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs to organize this kind of timely
0:32
seminar however let me mention some
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events just during the last year concerning North Korea in February last
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year Kim Jung Eun's half-blood er Kim yong-nam was killed the Kuala Lumpur
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Airport in Malaysia in April North Korea launched medium-range missiles in July
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North Korea testified a long-range missile which some expert think could
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have the potential to reach Alaska in the United States in August attention
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rose between the United States and North Korea over North Korean threat to fire
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ballistic missiles near the United States territory of Guam in the Pacific
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then in September North Korea launched its six nuclear weapon tests at the
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United Nations headquarters in New York City he was president Donald Trump
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stated that Rocketman is on a suicide mission in November North Korea launched yet
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another intercontinental ballistic missile test in January this year in a
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new development the first talks in two years took place between the North and
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South Korea's and then in February this year at the Winter Olympics in South
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Korea the two Koreas march in together with the opening ceremony they filled
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with John Joe women ice hockey team that lost to
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Sweden eight Sarah I'm sorry the same and also the North Korean delegation to
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South Korea who also visited during the Olympics including Kim jung-un sister
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extended an invitation to South Korea's president to meet with North Korea's
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leader and most recently last week news
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appeared about Kim jung-un willing to meet with US President Donald Trump and
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from accepting the invitation so today's seminar is not only about our
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skillful planning it's also resolved of a very very eventful year on the Korean
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Peninsula and I'm very happy today to have two great speakers to help us to
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separate myth and reality about North Korea first my left very much welcome to
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Stockholm Sweden to Loretta napoleoni a well-known journalist and political
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analyst Loretta you have been written extensively on a number of topics
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concerning international affairs such as terrorism economics not least a link
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between terrorism and economics Loretta has authored several well-received
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non-fiction books as well as fiction and is regular writing for world leading
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newspapers and this new book North Korea
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lambda 3l sky at Jota is just out the Swedish edition on three Thank You
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fellow that is a storing point of our discussion today so very much welcome
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Loretta to the Swedish Institute with natural affairs and to my left we have
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old Hansen who is a research fellow at the European Institute of Japanese
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studies at Stockholm School and and also an associate research fellow at the Swedish Institute amid natural
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affairs he got his PhD at the University in Berlin and he's been writing among
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other things about how Japan's wartime experience influences Japan's foreign
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and security policy as well as Japan North Korea relations so very much
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welcome to both of you and I would like first to give Loretta the word for a
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short lecture and then we give it too early then I will engage the speakers in
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some discussion and toward the end of the seminar we will open up for Q and a with the public and before we start I
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just want to mention that if you are out on Twitter please use the hashtag UI
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event and also before I give the world to Loretta her book is available to buy
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outside of this lecture hall please
inviting me and thank you for being here I must say that this book um the
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decision to write this book actually took place at my publisher House dinner
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and the people that were there are all here and we had the discussion and I
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said oh I've been really investigating North Korea because there are so many fake news about this country and they
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said wow that's a good idea maybe you know writing a short book explaining
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people what is really happening it's not something that we shouldn't do and we
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did it so I'm very pleased to be here today and to have the finished product
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so it is true that if we added this
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lecture last year we will be talking about something completely wrong because
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it's the truth the last year we thought that we were very close to a nuclear war
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confrontation between Donald Trump and kim jeong-hoon we also had this idea that Kim jong-un was completely deranged
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in the we still have the same idea about Donald Trump sometimes but so the world is
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totally totally different today we have a meeting that is even possible they
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will take place in Sweden between Donald Trump and kim jeong-hoon something that would be would have been completely
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completely irrational and absurd and I think because things have changed so
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quickly that we have gone from you know the potential nuclear holocaust to the
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peace between North Korea and the u.s. and possibly even Japan and for sure
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South Korea we have not understood today how exceptional this moment is I think
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what we have been witnessing really it is superb and absolutely outstanding
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political maneuvering of modern diplomacy and this was masterminded by
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new politicians people they are completely different from the politician that we have known until a few years ago
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and I would say that we are witnessing a moment which is very similar to blast no
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or perestroika weren't seen anything like that since those those years so
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we're talking about very long time so who are the actors of this transformation of the world well I would
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say the first political master is actually kim jong hoon Kim jong-un
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millennial as somebody that until two or three months ago we thought you know it
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was a grotesque individual the everybody was making fun of him because he's fat
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and yes an absurd air character we also thought that he was a sort of puppet in
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the hands of the elite they could not be possibly in charge of that country well
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this is completely false because he has proven to be
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skillful politician he also has proven
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to be part of this new political elite
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in leadership a world level which yes you know they are very much populist
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nationalistic narcissistic exactly as you know the US President of the United
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States but this is a key point because he belongs to these new politicians and
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the reason why this new politician exists is because the West and the world
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has decided to go anti-establishment I mean look around at yourself so there is
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this new movement and this is what Kim jong-eun has been exploiting for the
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last few years the fact that politics is not conducted in the way it was
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conducted before the other master is of
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course president moon president moon to a certain census dance since it was
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elected week in June he didn't react too badly to the ballistic missiles test of
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2017 but he responded immediately to the hint of the possibility for the North
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Korean to participate to the Winter Olympics and he has used the Olympic
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diplomacy in order to achieve what everybody thought was going to be
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impossible an actual conversation between the North and the South about
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the possibility of peace I remind you that the two countries civil war there
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was only an armistice there was never a peace treaty but above all he managed to
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lock the u.s. and in particular Donald Trump into an agreement to meet in May
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with Kim jong-un so the third one of course is Donald Trump is on track because the guy has
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been totally unpredictable and he has done the unpredictable and they impossible which
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is all of a suddent he has agreed to meet him Junoon is no consultant of the
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with staff and this is a new form of
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politics emerging president obama doing something like this he would develop at 17 meeting say it would have been tested
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with the media then he would have to organize you know the diplomacy it would
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have taken months and months and months yeah you know Donald Trump woke up in the morning he got to 80 so that Kim
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Jong hoon was actually willing to have that famous hamburger with him and he said why not let's do it but this is the
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politics of today and I think if we have one single chance here to achieve peace
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in the Pacific to contain not denuclearize because you'll never happen
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but to contain North Korea but above all to bring North Korea back into the
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international community and to stop being the army state the only way is to
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add this kind of a totally flexible unpredictable politics so I am fairly
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optimistic actually okay so how did we get here now North Korea since the 1950s
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been the country we love to hate it's been here the benchmark of evil it has
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been perceived for a start as one of the worst possible communist country during
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the Soviet regime you know within the sphere of influence of the Soviet Union
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of course the countries know even communist but that doesn't matter because he was on the border between
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your the west and the East during the Cold War he was the first country created after World War two product of
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the Cold War so you know yet to be total evil and this is the last evil standing
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of those years so it is somehow
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comforting to have a country like this existing I'll tell you why because you since the 89
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since the fall of the Berlin Wall globalization has been used to export
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democracy and the free market everywhere and frankly the results in certain countries are not so good I'm just
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thinking about Libya I'm thinking about Iraq Afghanistan people blow up every
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day because of terrorist activity but but the simple fact that we have the
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evil benchmark in North Korea makes us look at this country as not a complete
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total failure because you can always say well yeah you know people are not very
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happy in Baghdad but my god you know at least it's not Pyongyang and that is the
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approach what this is about to change because if we make a deal thinks will
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change then we'll be without the one single country that we can really hate
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will be without the evil benchmark anyway we'll say so I said North Korea
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was never a communist country at the end of the Korean War in 1953 Kim il-sung
History of North Korea
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who is the founder of the country he actually understood that North Korea
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could have been so low up by China or you know the Soviet Union which are the two countries on his border so he needed
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to create something different from communism in order to protect its own
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country and this is when he came out with this idea which is called gucchy it
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is you know the most difficult known coherent philosophy you can come across
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but he actually worked very well in North Korea because of the
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peculiarity I would say of the country and the people it is a nationalist ideology and it's
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based upon the purity of the North Korean race so imagine we're talking
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about 1950s this is after World War two this is the world race in Europe could not even
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be pronounced this is you know after the Holocaust and yet in this little corner
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in Asia somebody build up a new nation based upon the purity of the race the
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Judea is also the ideological base upon
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which the North Korean can describe their superiority visa vie the South
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Korean now in 1918 the Korean Peninsula
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was colonized by Japan and the North and the South took different routes the
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South was much more Pro Japanese the Japanese conducting a sort of
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decolonization a cultural campaign they wanted to assimilate completely the
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Koreans they even forced people to change their names from Korean names to Japanese names but the resistance was in
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the north so the North was where the war of independence started and this is
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where it was conducted Kim il-sung was the leader they moved to Manchuria a certain point and from Manchuria carried
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on this fight so because of all of that the North that's always looked at the
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South as a sort of cooperator of the Japanese now things got very very
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complicated of course at the end of the war because at the end of the war the Korean peninsula was divided in two at
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the 38th parallel and the South was occupied by the Americans and the North
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was under the control of the Russians and this is our kim ill sung managed to
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create North Korea but the idea is that
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the North is pure in terms of race than
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the South because the North did not
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the north vote against the Japanese he did not give up its own identity as the
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south did so on the basis of that what
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we see is not at all a communist country when you watch on TV of those parades
Is it a communist country
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right and commentators when they do the parade's always say oh this reminds us
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you know on the big parades in the Red Square in Moscow or you know in Beijing
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well it's not true if you look at those parade what you should think is the parade of the Roman
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Empire this is not a communist country this is a country based upon a dynasty
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the Qing Dynasty which is a blood dynasty the ducha gives them the
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legitimation of this blood dynasty so from father to son power is transmitted
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there is no power struck struggle in order to achieve control of leadership
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this is also a country where the nation is organized in blood caste so depending
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on the family you come from how close that family is to the war of
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independence kindaichi the Kim il-sung and close their family is to the Kim Il
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Sung dynasty then you are in a high caste or in a low caste and you know
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what there is no social mobility whatsoever this is more similar to ours the
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dynastic power of Asia in the middle age then our way was run the Soviet Union in
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the 1970s so anyway um it is a unique
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country it's completely different from any other countries so um the racial
Its a unique country
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superiority which is extremely radical is has become very conducive to the
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policy of self-reliance so because they feel severe to everybody else they also feel that they can
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withstand anything and this is how they survive the implosion of the Soviet
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Union and this is also how they survived the famine of the late 1990s in the
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1990s between 600,000 to 1 million people in North Korea starved to death
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and yet there was not one single attempt
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to overthrow the regime and I want to open a very brief parenthesis here
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did the sanction do you know why we impose sanctions upon certain countries
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we imposed sanctions on central country because the harshness the economic
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arsonist produced by the sanction will force the people to overthrow the
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existing regime which happened to be a regime that we do not like this is what's happened with Iraq of course it
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didn't work out but this is what is happening here also we kim jeong-hoon so
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last year all the surround of sanctions were aimed at forcing the be able to
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overthrow the regime now how can you do something like that
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if this is a country they has survived a famine where almost 1 million people
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died without doing anything so this is also shows the misinterpretation and the
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misunderstanding that we have visited this country so it's almost like the
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mythology has taken over the reality and we do not distinguish any more facts
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from fiction so um the nuclear program so Kimmy Kimmy
The nuclear program
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soon in the 1950s express the need to
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start a nuclear program he understood that the only way to protect the country
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from any future attack from another absolutely terrible experience as it was
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the Korean War the Korean War destroyed about 80 percent of the city of the
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north and I would say almost 80 percent also of the south it was a devastating
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and absolutely devastating war so the only way to prevent another tragedy a
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catastrophe like this was to achieve nuclear power so it has been
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systematically the policy of North Korea to become a nuclear power since the
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1950s you were still the most important it was the priority Oh Kim il-sung it
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was the priority of his son Kim jong-un and he became the priority oh you know
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the grandson kim jong hoon the
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difference here is that Kim jong-un came to power at a certain moment in history
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and it's also a completely different individual from the father and the grandfather it's a millennial yes no
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console no idea of the Cold War it was brought up in the technological era so
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he had a completely different approach to how do we achieve this goal I mean
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first Artem he understood that the country needed to grow economically he
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understood that it was impossible to maintain control without giving
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something to the people so introduced economic tolerance they lifted the country from the substance economy but
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at the same time he continued its new girl program and what he did that the
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predecessor didn't do is he realized that it was pointless to spend money for
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an army a conventional army conventional army is obsolete all the money should
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have gone to the Nuba program and this is exactly what's happened so in 2017 he
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gambled I think you really gamble I think he provoked Trump he launched the missiles to
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establish North Korea as a nuclear power and once that became a certainty which
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he did stopped in November 2017 and then he sent the olive branch to the south
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and only branch there was not sent by a country that is world by country that is
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starving but it was sent by the newest nuclear country in the world and he
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worked he absolutely worked so he
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dictated without us realizing his own conditions and here we are the Americans
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are coming to the table so what's gonna happen but I think there will be an
25:16
agreement for a peace treaty between the north and the south hmm there will be a draft agreement
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between the u.s. and North Korea of course you know Trump will present it as
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his victory this draft agreement will be will be needed to be put together before
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the midterm election because that would be a tremendous boost for the election for Trump and for sure well they're not
25:46
going to conclude the agreement for several years but you know the bases will be there the DPRK will not renounce
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its nuclear weapons as didn't Pakistan India or Israel it will be yet another
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member of you know the so-called nuclear powers that we don't want them to be nuclear powers but they are nuclear
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power ISM we'll find a way to present it to the world and then finally the most
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important thing is the peace with the South will be very beneficial to the
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north because they will start trading so there will be a relaxation of
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restriction in the north is going to be a little bit like what's happening in China
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we thanks your ping but don't be fooled the regime will maintain the control so
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the country will never be totally open there will always be the Kim dynasty
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they are in control but things will be better for sure they'll be better than they are today
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Lauretta thank you so much for really fascinating talk and let's give her a hand before we move on to to Oliver I
27:14
would like to ask you because also be the background of this recent events about the news about a meeting coming up
27:22
between Kim Yuna and Donald Trump because when I hear you speaking it sounds that you gave sort of the North
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Korea's a lot of credit here for their very skillful diplomatic maneuvers leading up to sort of creating the
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conditions where they can meet with the Americans they can arrange this meeting
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I would like to ask you however about the alternative interpretation that you
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hear sometimes in the media and among experts and that is that with the new
27:56
rounds of sanctions this year from the United Nations Security Council also
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supported by Russia and most importantly by China North Korea is getting more and
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more isolated and maybe the sanctions didn't start to bite that much yet but they sort of see it coming and this
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combined we work very hard and in threatening rhetoric coming after the
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United States about attacking North Korea some people believe that the North
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Koreans they feel really isolated now and they see that things are just gonna get worse and they need a way out and
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that explains the background of this attempt to meet now with the Americans
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what do you think about this this view well I disagree with this view because I'm what the Americans
28:52
being say systematically I mean for administration including the Trump
28:57
administration is that they would not sit down to the table until the North
29:03
Korea and renounce the nuclear program and the North Koreans have not renounced
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the program what the North Koreans are doing is not launched any missiles
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during this period which is and also the Olympics this was the agreement but I
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don't think they need to launch any more missiles I mean if the aim is to prove
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that they can hit the United States I think you know they have done it we know
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that they are very ballistic missiles they can go intercontinental and reach
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at least the west coast of the United States well we don't know if they have managed to miniaturize the bomb so that
29:48
these missiles can actually carry it but you know would you risk it I wouldn't and I don't think the Americans would so
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this is why I disagree I think the North Koreans actually won because they are
30:02
getting the Americans to the table without giving up their weapons so
30:07
basically to get the Americans to the table without giving any concessions right very skillful indeed if that is
Marketization in North Korea
30:13
the case and if this meeting will happen thank you very much Loretta we will continue a discussion later but first
30:19
please answer
30:38
all right thank you thank you very much Buren so I will speak about a topic that
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unfortunately but perhaps understandably is often overshadowed by the nuclear
30:52
issue and that topic is the marketization of North Korea and I do
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understand that probably many of you are eager to discuss the latest developments between Washington and Pyongyang and I'd
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be happy to do so during the Q&A session but for the next 15 minutes let's focus
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on marketization in North Korea so what is marketization in North Korea well as
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Loretta pointed out North Korea is often characterized as some sort of Stalinist
31:30
plan economy but that's simply not a very accurate accurate picture of North
31:35
Korea when the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s the North Korean economy
31:43
collapsed with it North Korea was extremely dependent on imports from the
31:49
Soviet Union at subsidized friendship prices so when these imports stopped
31:54
coming in for example oil and fertilizer in spare parts the North Korean state
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was no longer able to provide its people with food and other necessities so
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famine as loretta pointed out soon broke out and that was completely disastrous
32:16
killing between 3 and 5 percent of the entire population so when the North
32:23
Korean state failed to or as the North Korean state was no longer able to take
32:30
care of its own population the ordinary North Koreans how had no other options but to get together and
32:39
barter and trade on makeshift markets and the North Korean state had no other
32:45
alternative but to accept this because they didn't have any alternative in place so the origin of
32:53
North Korean marketization is found in the famine in the 1990s and since then
33:00
Noah marketization has become very institutionalized in North Korea there
33:06
are about 400 States authorized huge
33:12
markets called Jiang Madonna Inn in North Korea and these markets are
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they're very big they actually have on average 1,500 stalls and they're
33:28
technically illegal but as I said the government has no other option but to
33:33
tolerate them and since the state salary
33:39
is not sufficient to survive on most North Koreans supplement their income at
33:46
these markets and it's estimated that North Koreans earn somewhere between 60
33:51
and 100 percent of their total income at these markets so they're extremely important to the North Korean people are
33:58
average people and so what does
34:05
marketization in North Korea how does that how does this affect North Korean
34:12
society well it affects North Korean society in a number of different ways
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and some are positive and some are negative as for the positive
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consequences I can mention that marketization has led to improved living
34:28
standards although I shouldn't exaggerate that and also increased access to technology and information and
34:36
North Korea has become more interconnected than ever before as we
34:42
have seen new means of transportation such as private bus services and new
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means of communications such as the spread of mobile phones and one of the
34:52
most interesting developments in in this regard is the spread of outside
34:58
information into North Korea and especially South Korean popular culture despite being illegal South
35:06
Korean movies and dramas and music have become extremely popular in in North
35:13
Korea and according to some defector
35:18
interviews there are estimates that as much as 70 to 80% of North Koreans watch
35:26
South Korean movies on a regular basis but that's of course impossible to verify but we know also that young North
35:34
Koreans often try to sort of emulate the fashion and the slang they see and hear
35:40
in South Korean popular culture and speaking of young people one demographic
35:48
group that we should keep an eye on is the so-called John Madden generation the
35:54
market generation and the Jung Mong Generation is basically the North Korean
36:01
equivalent to what we in the West sometimes referred to as Millennials so
36:06
that is people in their 20s and 30s but unlike the Millennials in the West who
36:12
are often stereotyped as being lazy the North Korean young modern generation
36:17
is extremely industrious and creative and these people they grew up in the
36:26
1990s during the famine so they had to get tough and self-reliant in order to survive and these people have they have
36:35
no known no other system than capitalism in North Korea they've never experienced
36:41
a fully functioning socialist system so they are said to be more rebellious and
36:48
industrious and self-reliant than previous generations and perhaps more importantly they are said to be inclined
36:57
to be more well more inclined to challenge state authority and
37:04
[Music] predictably due to the largely unchecked
37:11
spread of capitalism in North Korea there are also negative consequence such as corruption and income inequality
37:21
and corruption has really become a major problem in North Korea it's become a
37:27
systemic problem and since the markets are technically illegal market vendors
37:35
are often subject to two random demands
37:41
for bribes by patrolling police officers so this has really become part of the
37:48
North Korean system and if you have money in North Korea today you can basically bribe your way out of any
37:54
situation any predicament and kim yong yong at seoul national university
38:01
published a book last year called unveiling the north korean economy in
38:07
where he makes an estimate based on defector interviews and he writes that
38:13
the average North Korean household actually spends as much as nine percent
38:19
of its budget on bribes so that would effectively make North Korea the one of
38:24
the most corrupt countries in the world now can marketization in North Korea
Marketization erodes state power
38:33
lead to some sort of political change so far North Korea or actually the North
38:40
Korean state has responded very in an in a very ambiguous way towards the markets
38:48
accommodating the markets one day and cracking down on the markets the next but I think in the long term
38:56
mark marketization in North Korea will lead to some form of liberalisation and
39:01
I think so because marketization erodes state power more specifically it erodes
39:09
the state's ability to control its own people so traditionally the state's
39:17
ability to control its own population has rested on three pillars the first
39:23
one being a monopoly on force and the second one being a monopoly on information
39:28
and the third one being legitimacy more specifically legitimacy through reciprocal state people relations but so
39:38
these were the three pillars that enabled state to really strictly control
39:44
its own people in the past however now all three pillars have gradually begun
The three pillars of state power
39:51
to shake and crumble a little bit due to marketization so let me explain that a
39:56
little bit as for the first pillar the monopoly on force that is obviously still intact it's a strong pillar and
40:04
the state threshold to use force in order to control its own people is still
40:09
extremely low however the spread of bribery and corruption offers possibilities to avoid
40:20
punishment for many if not most crimes so obviously this empowers potential
40:28
regime challengers because now they have they have the opportunity to circumvent
40:37
state repression to some degree but it's still a very strong pillar now the second pillar monopoly on information
40:43
that is simply not there anymore the state does not have an absolute monopoly on information thanks to the
40:52
spread of new technology the North Koreans today have an unprecedented access to outside information and the
41:00
government can no longer dictate a narrative on all aspects of social life
41:07
nor can it nor can it hide the success
41:13
of South Korea visa vie North Korea and I think in the long term the spread of
41:20
information about South Korea is probably the the gravest long-term
41:27
threat to the North Korean state because there's simply no easy way to explain
41:34
the huge discrepancy between North and South Korea without pointing to the
41:39
different political systems thus admitting the flaws of North Korean socialism so I think outside information
41:47
really reveals the successes of other countries and the dysfunctionality of
41:52
North Korea now the third pillar which is legitimacy
41:59
through reciprocal relations between the state and the people is probably the pillar that is has weakened the most now
42:07
the North Korean state has always been extremely demanding of its own people
42:13
but in the past it also gave something back so the North Korean state demanded
42:19
absolute loyalty and labor but in return it gave the people food and a certain
42:27
degree of welfare and basic necessities so there was a degree of reciprocity in
42:36
the relationship between the state and the people and this of course conferred
42:42
legitimacy on to the regime and the leadership however today the state is
42:47
still extremely demanding of its own people but it hardly gives anything back so the public distribution system has
42:56
been in a state of disrepair for for 20 years and people who only rely on the
43:02
state they simply can't survive in today's North Korea so for example
43:07
people in the jeong gyeongmi dong generations the Millennials they are very little incentive to be loyal to the
43:13
state because as I said they've never experienced a fully functioning
43:18
socialist system so to them the state is not an enabler of better lives it's an
43:25
obstacle to better lives and I think as long as the relationship between the state and the people lacks any semblance
43:32
of reciprocity the state's legitimacy will continue to weaken so that means
43:40
that all three pillars to varying degrees are being weakened all three
43:45
pillars that have upheld the state's ability to control its own people so and
43:52
and I think it will continue to weaken unless the state does something so I think doing nothing for the North
43:58
Korean state is really not an option and abolishing the markets is not really an option either because it doesn't have
44:04
the capacity to reinstate the public
44:10
distribution system nor does it have the capacity or creativity to come up with alternatives to the market markets so I
44:19
think the most likely scenario going forward is a scenario in which the North
44:24
Korean state gradually comes to embraced the markets try to profit from it and
44:33
facilitates market activity through careful economic reform much like we saw
44:42
in China in the late 1970s and 1980s and this would of course require a
44:49
relaxation on the restrictions on on movement on assembly on communication
44:56
and it would also require a an unambiguous recognition of the markets
45:05
as legal and I think there are some indications that Kim jong-un is actually
45:12
going in this direction and if that's really the case then I think it's a smart move
45:18
because if he manages to facilitate market activity which is going to happen
45:25
anyway then he can portray himself as this reformer that can take credit for
45:30
the improvement in North Koreans lives so I think if Kim jong-un plays his
45:37
cards right he can actually benefit from marketization but again I think it will
45:44
require some degree of liberalization of
45:51
the North Korean system thank you very much [Applause]
Will the North Korean regime embrace marketization
46:07
thank you very much I would like to ask the first question to you so you enter
46:16
your talk by saying that it's likely that the North Korean regime will have
46:25
to embrace this trend toward marketization the question then to me
46:32
would be wouldn't this risk turning North Korea into a second-rate South
46:40
Korea right if they embrace core
46:46
features of the South Korean system and the North Korean population is seeing
46:52
the regime doing this but at the same time they see that we don't get the same
46:57
freedoms that the South Koreans have and you know the level of economic
47:03
discrepancy between the two countries will still be enormous so why would the
47:09
North Korean leadership do this wouldn't this be an enormous risk to them and
47:15
even though it might be difficult to completely stop the marketization
47:20
shouldn't we instead expect them to try as you know forests they can to prevent
47:29
these trends from accelerating hmm yeah so in a 15-minute presentation you don't
What is the alternative
47:37
really get to develop all your arguments so this is where I backtrack but yeah I
47:43
think I think you're right it does provide it does pose a risk to the North Korean leadership and of course they
47:52
would not want to be a second-rate South Korea but I wonder what is the
47:57
alternative and also I think if there's one thing the North Korean leadership
48:03
has been very good at it's been making
48:09
the people accept the state narrative so if they manage to swing this
48:14
narrative from being like this second grade South Korea into focusing on the actual
48:21
achievements of the Kim jong-un leadership compared to for example his father which whose legacy is really
48:30
tainted by the famine like if you manage that comparison instead like a temporal
48:36
comparison look at where we are now as compared to where we were in the 1990s instead of the geographical comparison
48:43
look at where we are in compared to South Korea then I think yeah why wouldn't that be possible I think I
48:51
think it's possible but I also think that maybe the current leadership
48:57
doesn't really have much of a choice because I mentioned this young modern generation the North Korean Millennials
49:05
one thing that's really important to keep in mind is that this generation is
49:11
only gonna get bigger it's not an not one generation among many this in the
49:18
future we'll be talking about Jang model generations in the plural so so this is
49:23
the default mindset of North Koreans also in the future this is not like in a
49:31
generation that will will pass anytime soon so I think that the pressures will
49:36
simply be too big and maybe I'm too naive to believe in like the North
49:44
Korean public opinion but I I was criticized for being too Nordic by my
49:50
boss but it's certainly well and maybe I am but I I think there's a good chance that the pressures will be become too
49:58
strong for a North Korean leadership to actually ignore so Loretta how do you
Economic change in North Korea
50:04
see the prospects of economic change in North Korea and also how it plays into relations with South Korea because you
50:12
ended you talk also about something pretty optimistic about the prospects in
50:17
the near future for for improvement of North South Korean relations well I
The new generation in North Korea
50:23
agree about this analysis though we should not
50:28
really talk about one generation but your new generation I mean things have changed dramatically since the 1990s but
50:38
I would say that because of this sort of national asthma because of this idea to
50:46
be the purest of the purest race the simple fact and North that the north is
50:52
a nuclear power and the south is not it's ready a very strong edge from the
50:59
north I think his source of tremendous power even if they do not like the leadership
51:06
or whatever even if the economic condition are not as good as in the south and not many people can do that
51:13
comparison very well the I think Kim jong-un is very popular at the moment
51:21
extremely definitely much more popular than his father it's as popular I would
51:27
say as he was Kim il-sung the founder of
51:32
the nation so if if the leadership can maintain this kind of admiration I think
51:41
many things can be achieved they'll think oh is that North Korea is one of
51:47
the a few countries in the North I mean
51:52
because of course we have also Africa they have not been developed I mean just the opportunities be like you know when
52:01
China opened up in the 70s are actually in the 80s it's also very rich country
52:06
I mean resources mines so that could
52:11
play in the hands of the regime if it's done in the right way that can bring a
52:18
lot of prosperity the population is not very big so you do not need I mean we're
52:25
not talking about China yeah we're talking about the relatively small country there are problems in
52:32
agriculture and mmm but you know better me I'm pretty sure about that they
52:38
completely destroyed the agriculture in the north after the implosion of the
52:45
Soviet Union because they cut the trees that were encouraged to cut the trees in
52:51
order to produce fuel because all of a sudden there to pay fuel at market prices and this is the origins of the
52:58
famine by the way because they were encouraged to cut the trees and to plant in the sloping land then they were hit
53:07
in the mid-1990s by one of the first phenomenal abilities freak weather
53:15
phenomenon due to global warming up so they had two years of floods one year of
53:25
drought and then they had a tidal wave you know that tsunamis so they in these
53:32
circumstances the agricultural system completely collapsed because of what
53:38
they are done and also because of the the weather pattern them and this is
53:44
when they open up this is when the marketization came Rob LA so I think the
53:50
agriculture is their weak point and I think they have to invest in agriculture
53:57
there's a lot of money going to North Korea from international organization to
54:03
replant this local lands already I mean Switzerland for example has a
54:10
huge plan which has been in place for the last six or seven years so they but
54:16
it takes time I think that's is where they they will have a problem if they
54:23
don't do it properly because of course food is still not abundant and food is
54:31
required if if we try to connect this
The geopolitics of North Korea
54:36
issue about marketization and potential economic change with the geopolitics surrounding North Korea it seems to me
54:44
that in order for this process is to move forward North Korea's economic
54:49
can't be cut off from the rest of the world and what we have today is really massive sanctions in
54:57
place also where China North Korea's
55:05
biggest trading Porton by far is also part of this I if I start by asking you ill let's say that this sort of positive
55:15
momentum continues now and you know the leaders of both Korea's will meet in
55:20
April and then Kim and Trump will meet in in May but from an American
55:28
perspective right the sanction will stay in place until North Korea commits to
55:34
start getting rid of its nuclear weapons and at least according to loretta and a
55:39
lot of other observers it's not very likely that they will do that so is it
55:45
then possible to combine some kind of economic engagement with the outside world by these sanctions are still in
55:51
place or how how is it possible for North Korea to to escape this conundrum
55:57
I really don't think it's possible to
Donald Trump and Kim Jongun
56:02
offer any positive development of the economy as long as the sanctions remain
56:08
in place and I'm also very I'm not unfortunately a hospice mr+ - or hopeful
56:16
of the upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Kim jong-un as Laura seems to
56:24
be because I think Donald Trump has invested so much political capital in
56:31
criticizing the horrible deals of other presidents before him and this is his
56:38
chance at making I feel that will be remembered forever not forever but for
56:44
for a long time and if like if he does exact if he walks right into the same
56:50
trap as every other American president that has tackled this issue then I mean
56:59
it's a huge loss for him maybe he doesn't care about that but I think he
57:04
does and so I think if he cuts a deal with North Korea which does not commit North
57:13
Korea to denuclearize ation he will be ridiculed I mean that would be a huge
57:20
loss for him in the upcoming elections so I don't think he is willing to do
57:27
that and I at the same time I neither do I think that North Korea is willing to
57:33
trade away its nuclear weapons I mean they just like Donald Trump has invested
57:40
a lot of political capital in sort of being tough on North Korea North Korea
57:45
has invested a lot of political capital in the prestige of nuclear weapons I mean not just a deterrence factor like
57:52
that's obvious but also the prestige of nuclear weapons it's even written into the Constitution that North Korea is a
58:00
nuclear state so how is Kim jong-un gonna just backtrack from this rhetoric
58:06
that has dominated like all public statements coming out of North Korea for
58:12
the past almost 10 years that the nuclear weapons program is non-negotiable I don't see it happen
58:20
happening oh I am unfortunately pretty pessimistic what's your take already
If I were Donald Trump
58:31
well I think that the structure of the
58:39
non-proliferation protocol agreement is completely wrong if I were Donald Trump
58:45
I would go you know big I would not go only let's get an agreement to win North
58:52
Korea I would go about you know let's rewrite the non-proliferation protocol
58:59
which if you think about it's exactly the same thing that happened when glass
59:05
know in perestroika I mean they started opening up and then
59:11
they could not carry on without redesigning you know what's the salt
59:16
agreement redesigning the entire structure weapons
59:23
I mean it no the nuclear weapons is a political issue is not a military issue
59:31
they thought that any of those countries is going to use a new group weapon it's
59:37
ridiculous I mean this is something that people must understand and this is also
59:43
something that politicians must put true to the people and the ears to be built
59:51
in in agreements the only reason why a country will use a nuclear weapon if
59:57
it's the only chance to survive so if Donald Trump was threatening kim jong
1:00:04
hoon to attack him as several generals i mean i remember reading an article in
1:00:09
Bloomberg which was absolutely you know science fiction kind of article because this general was saying oh well you know
1:00:17
now we have the GPS weapons don't know if you saw it you know this GPS guided weapons so we can actually attack them
1:00:24
go inside the bunker where you know the nuclear weapons are no we can not
1:00:30
destroy the nuclear weapon but we can destroy this the mechanism to switch them on and I thought come on
1:00:37
you know it's science fiction so I think we need a new approach to nuclear weapon
1:00:47
meaning there are countries which of course they have it and were happy for them to have it but there are other
1:00:54
countries that will become nuclear powers and we have to accept it I I can
1:01:03
understand a point but at the same time Donald Trump he doesn't really strike me as the guy on you know go into
1:01:10
negotiations about it's very complicated multilateral arrangement about nuclear
1:01:15
proliferation and so on so if if we you know return to the current situation
1:01:22
then with possible events here going forward do you think that the United
1:01:30
States in some way could accept even if not you
1:01:36
know officially a nuclear North Korea and engage with it economically and and
1:01:43
maybe in return for some test trees and so on cut some sanctions do you think that's a real possibility for a friend near
1:01:50
future well they accepted in Agra Pakistan I mean here why shouldn't they accept a
1:01:55
new girl in North Korea frankly I think Pakistan is much more dangerous than North Korea so yeah I
1:02:03
mean why did we accept that we them accepted a new group Agusan because Bush
1:02:09
needed Pakistan you know there was a necessity for his
1:02:15
administration to make a deal with Pakistan and by the way the Saudis paid
1:02:21
the so-called fine that they impose around on Pakistan so Donald Trump needs
1:02:30
this deal and it is the man of the deal some practice in the book you know he is
1:02:37
known in America as the man of the deal is the businessman it makes every impossible so and it's super
1:02:44
narcissistic so I think because of these circumstances yes it may happen of
1:02:51
course we don't know everything so unpredictable as I said before in this world but I I think there is a
1:02:59
possibility which of course it was not there with Obama Obama will never ever
1:03:04
have accepted it thank you and let's continue this discussion now together
1:03:10
with the audience and I got two questions here already first lady in
1:03:17
purple and then the man in the tie behind him and please start by introducing yourself and post short
1:03:23
questions to the speakers yes um my name is Nadia Kronborg and I was nuclear specialist from C pre and I especially
1:03:29
worked with Iran negotiations for a long time and I would like to we are talking
1:03:36
about the nuclear ashes of the Korean Peninsula and it's true that I don't think the North Koreans will go along
1:03:44
with toad the nuclearization but there's this possibility there's a difference between
1:03:49
Iran and North Korea Iran did not have nuclear weapons but they are happy to be on the threshold to be on the threshold
1:03:56
to be able to break out within a certain time would you think that North Korea
1:04:03
would go along with this kind of threshold position with a breakout time
1:04:08
or for some time and just a short question also we're talking about the marketization and so forth I was in
1:04:16
November in Washington about seminar on not on one Korea there's obviously a
1:04:23
dream on both sides of one Korean when they march under one what do you see so
1:04:33
before you reply to this excellent question Loretta let's take two more questions we take you in a bunch first
1:04:40
forget the gentlemen there and then that man in the white shirt thank you very much my name is Matt Simon
1:04:46
former Major General recently returned after serving in the DMZ between North
1:04:51
and South Korea for two years one question each for the two panelists first to you miss loretta you mentioned
1:04:58
in the presentation about a possibility of a some kind of peace agreement or peace treaty with the upcoming meetings
1:05:05
do you see that peace treaty as the precursor to a two-state solution or to
1:05:11
a reunification and to you mr. Hansen you mentioned this about the young
1:05:17
demand generation do you see this as a breeding ground for some kind of
1:05:22
political opposition would you more see them as looking after themselves and
1:05:28
their families thank you very much thank you and then we got one more question here a
1:05:33
gentlemen my name is Sheldon fist from
1:05:39
European Labour Party initially Institute I think you forgot that China
1:05:46
Yas nose is totally changing the world with his belt and road initiative isn't
1:05:52
it the case that they have marketizing as you said the whole
1:05:58
China why should not of Korea be able to do the same and if the sanctions gets
1:06:06
away enough Korea join immediately the belton Road initiative will not solve
1:06:12
the problem for North Korea I don't
1:06:23
think that Iran it's a good example because the North Koreans have the
1:06:31
nuclear weapon it's in the Constitution as all said before so I I don't think
1:06:40
they're going to give it up it's really very much part of the essence of the
1:06:47
nation I also think that the nation has been built to protect I mean that's the
1:06:55
concept to protect the people so we have the colonization of Japan which is super
1:07:01
brutal then we have the Korean War which is even worse in terms of destruction so
1:07:08
it is a necessity when they perceived the word as something very dangerous
1:07:18
that when you talk to to the factors you you can get it from the factors also
1:07:24
then you know the syllabus nostalgia then when they describe their life there it's almost cozy to a certain extent
1:07:33
because that's North Korea because it's the most beautiful country in the world I mean it is possible the new
1:07:38
generations will be different but for sure the the situation now is such you
1:07:44
can't say the same thing of Iran so no I don't think they'll give it up about the
1:07:50
two Koreas I think there is a very strong desire from the south but less
1:07:58
from the north number one if you have one Korea which Korea is going to be
1:08:07
because I mean look at Germany here you never ever reunification where you created a third kind of nation it is
1:08:15
always one nation that absorbs the other so it's absolutely not possible to have
1:08:22
South Korea absorbing North Korea but not only because the regime in Pyongyang
1:08:29
will never let it it's because China will never let it I mean North Korea is a buffer State
1:08:35
it's the ultimate buffer State and he's gonna be there as long as China it's
1:08:40
gonna be next door I mean you got to change China in order to so I think this
1:08:46
is a dream that the Americans know it's interesting you said Washington because
1:08:51
I mean the Americans having a clue of what I mean they don't even know where North Korea is now I mean they really
1:08:58
this is one of the areas where the Americans are mostly weak so I didn't
1:09:07
understand very well your question but I think he refers to China and I would say
1:09:13
that anything that is going to happen he
1:09:18
will have to have the stamp of China I do not see so when we say about Donald
1:09:27
Trump really stuff yes you get okay
1:09:32
Romo the real guy that is ruling that region and very soon the rest of the
1:09:38
world which for sure doesn't sit in the White House but you know he sits in Virginia so I my I this is a gut feeling
1:09:49
of course you know don't have any proof but I have the feeling the China knew
1:09:54
who Kim Jang hoon was that knew what he was doing that although you know they
1:10:01
didn't show any interest or they actually show even weaknesses
1:10:07
sometimes in taming him I think I do not believe that Kim jong-un is full machine
1:10:15
not for one single moment so for now my
1:10:20
feeling is the Chinese are happy and they are okay now of course if there is a peace treaty
1:10:25
between the north of the South the Americans will have to move the Tad's from South Korea and they have to move
1:10:33
their fleet from right in front of China
1:10:38
so why would you keep us present such a
1:10:44
really big military presence in the Pacific if North Korea it's not the
1:10:50
enemy will up to 8 anymore all right so
1:10:56
I am NOT going to address the questions in the order they were posed I'll start
1:11:02
with the question about the Jiang Madan generation and whether they might be
1:11:09
some sort of breeding ground for opposition to the to the regime and I
1:11:15
think the indication so far is that they're not a breeding ground like this
1:11:21
generation is not full of regime challengers they are simply trying to
1:11:26
survive however they might be you might call them a generation of regime I don't
1:11:35
know people who are disobedient they're not necessarily trying to challenge the
1:11:40
regime by overthrowing it but they are really stretching what's allowed in
1:11:48
North Korean society today so a lot of these young people in the Jiang Madan generation they are smuggling they're
1:11:55
breaking the law constantly and they are selling contraband goods in North Korea
1:12:04
for example South Korean popular culture and they're selling contraband goods in in China perhaps not so much after China
1:12:12
has really cracked down on on its borders and the borders have become much
1:12:17
stronger but anyway it has very little respect for the law and it's not really
1:12:25
an ideological thing that they're trying to overthrow the regime as I said I mean they're basically just doing whatever is
1:12:31
possible to survive and I also think that one perhaps unintended consequence of the North
1:12:39
Korean state's decision to allow the markets without legalizing them is that
1:12:45
you're making criminals out of the entire population like every single time
1:12:51
someone buy something or sell something at the markets it's a criminal activity so what you're doing is that you are
1:12:59
basically showing that disobedience is possible in very small doses so far but
1:13:05
who knows where it could go like now at least it's young people they know that
1:13:11
it's possible to circumvent the law in in some regard I think in the long term
1:13:17
we shouldn't underestimate the sort of the the power of the Jang ma dong
1:13:23
generation and the potential they have to be a driver of change and perhaps just address one more question about
1:13:31
reunification I look at this from the North Korean perspective so I think
1:13:39
there are some significant video players in North Korea against reunification and
1:13:45
I'm thinking specifically about the North Korean elites in the party and the
1:13:53
the military because imagine if North Korea were to reunify with South Korea
1:14:00
you would have all these generals and party elites they would lose their power
1:14:06
because I assume that we would be talking about the reunification on Seoul's terms as the only realistic
1:14:12
option and if that happens they would lose their power overnight and perhaps even be tried for crimes against
1:14:19
humanity so that's certainly not in their interest and another video player is the so called don't you the new rich
1:14:28
in North Korea the people who the entrepreneurs who have really become
1:14:33
fabulously rich even by Western standards in some cases like they have
1:14:40
very primitive businesses and the last thing they want is a change in the status quo so because they have no
1:14:47
chance at competing with the Mighty south korean conglomerates so I think
1:14:53
reunification from a North Korean perspective is very of course it's there
1:15:00
plenty of hurdles but there are also some significant video players which we don't often talk about so I think it's
1:15:06
extremely perhaps unrealistic at this point thank you very much
1:15:15
and thank all of you for showing up here tonight we'll all follow the news
1:15:22
closely in the coming weeks and month we'll miss the moon and mr. Kim meat and
1:15:27
we'll miss the Trump and mr. Kim meat who knows but at least in it it's an exciting time to watch what's happening
1:15:35
on the Korean Peninsula and in East Asia we have a lot of seminars coming up within the Asia program so please check
1:15:42
your inboxes you're very much welcome to join us and I want to thank first Loretta
1:15:48
napoleoni for coming to Stockholm and giving this great presentation by her
1:15:53
book I read it it's a great read it's available here outside
1:15:59
thank you very much Loretta and also I want to extend on the behalf of using
1:16:05
split ski Institute that my thanks to all Olaf has been living here in Stockholm now for a while ever since he
1:16:11
finished his doctoral studies in Berlin but he will take up a new position in
1:16:17
Japan at Soka University so he will leave us soon but we hope that he will
1:16:22
be a frequent visitor to Stockholm or so from now on thank you very much thanks
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